Iran Power Vacuum: Is the Revolutionary Guard Poised To Take Control

The death of Iran’s long-time supreme leader Ali Khamenei has triggered a dramatic power struggle inside the Islamic Republic — but analysts say the country’s real authority is now likely to fall to one dominant force: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Clerics from Iran’s powerful leadership body are now meeting to choose a new supreme leader, with several figures reportedly under consideration, including Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei.

Yet many experts believe whoever is formally chosen may wield far less influence than the Revolutionary Guard — the heavily armed military, intelligence and economic network that has propped up the regime for decades.

“Iran’s remaining power structure is the IRGC,” said Iran expert Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School. “Once the smoke clears, if there isn’t regime change, the people running the country will be the ones associated with the Guard.”

The Power Behind The Regime

The Revolutionary Guard was created after the Iranian Revolution by revolutionary leader Ruhollah Khomeini as a parallel military force to Iran’s regular army, which the new clerical leadership distrusted.

Over decades it evolved into far more than a military organization.

The Guard now controls major sectors of the Iranian economy — from oil and construction to telecommunications — and maintains powerful intelligence and security units responsible for crushing dissent. Its security apparatus includes feared detention facilities linked to Evin Prison.

According to human-rights monitors such as the Human Rights Activists News Agency, thousands of anti-government protesters were killed in recent crackdowns orchestrated by security forces aligned with the Guard.

Military Elite Dominating Politics

The organization’s influence extends deep into Iran’s political leadership.

Senior figures with Revolutionary Guard backgrounds include Ali Larijani and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, both veterans of the force.

Some analysts say the Guard now behaves less like an ideological revolutionary movement and more like a powerful corporate empire protecting its interests.

“They’re a mafia-like entity,” argued Iran scholar Abbas Milani of Stanford University. “They want to keep their turf.”

Decapitated Leadership

The Guard’s leadership has also taken heavy losses.

During his presidency, Donald Trump ordered the 2020 drone strike that killed Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad International Airport.

More recently, Israeli and U.S. strikes have reportedly killed additional senior commanders, including missile chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh and Guard leader Mohammad Pakpour.

Despite these losses, analysts say the organization remains the most powerful institution inside Iran.

Harder Crackdown Likely

If the Islamic Republic survives the current crisis, experts believe the Revolutionary Guard will tighten its grip even further.

The biggest threat to the regime is not foreign attacks, they say — but a domestic uprising.

“If the system survives,” Ostovar warned, “it will likely become even more repressive.”

For now, while clerics debate who should replace Khamenei, the guns — and much of the real power — appear to rest firmly in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard.

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Regime change?!? 555555555555

Kurds will do it

^ Kurts being used over and over.

Ask the Syrian kurts how that worked out for them.