2 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

Ok interesting analysis of Kharg. But do you think Kharg is indeed the plan for invasion or is there a different plan for those Marines?

Qeshm, and the associated smaller islands. This is what the British have been saying for ages. You need to secure both sides of the Straits of Hormuz to support a clear military objective of facilitating transit through the Straits. Seizing an island, essentially as a hostage, isn't a military objective. Does America negotiate with hostage takers? Why should Iran.

Qeshm will be a hard nut to crack as well, but at least the purpose is clearer, and its a hell of a lot easier to reinforce the landing teams, from ships in the Gulf of Oman, who can also provide fire support.

This might be why the Desalination Planton Qeshm was hit early in the war. On the face of it, it seems likea warcrime, and didn't seem a particularly important target, when you have stacks of other more vital targets across Iran. The desalination plant sustained 40-50 vilages. Bad news for the villagers. But it also sustains the Iranian garrison. They won't die of thirst because the taps have run dry. What the immediate effect is that Iran has to devote more logistics into supporting the existing troops there, let alone thnk about reinforcing, which will put even more burden on a logistics chain that includes daily supplies of water.

The role of the plant in supporting a military is the get out in the Geneva Convention.

Significant military assets on the island

https://israel-alma.org/iran-qeshm-island-deployment-of-advanced-uavs/

A bit of research reveals the capacity and actual output of the desalination plant; 18,000 cubic meters a day is the designed capacity, but it operated at 50% capacity. That would typically support 45,000 people a day, 90,000 if rationed. It doesn't provide for all the water of the island; the island does have access access to groundwater, and the authorities will have contingency plans for breakdowns etc. Taking out the desalination plant puts supplies into a stressed situation. It limit's Iran's ability to reinforce.

When you consider the local population, things get interesting. The civilians on Qeshm are not Shia, they are Sunni. They complain of discrimination, lack of representation. There is a Baluchi separatist movement, but best not to court them, as they include Salafist cut-throats, and there must be absolute focus on maintaining Iran as a unitary state. There have been protests, but there was also broad support for the recent Quds day, which is basically the local's way of expressing support for Palestine. So anti-Israel sentiment is high.

There are well developed Navy plans from the late 80s to take these islands, but it was high risk. But some of the facts might have changed since.

The major reason why in 1988 the plan was not pursued was because Qatar/UAE would not agree to be resupply bases. The calculus might have changed.

Also extremely high risk, with many marines dying, and a high risk of failure. But the objectives are more powerful. Seizing Kharg might have the impact on Iran of "Yeah, but so what. We'll see you in heaven". Its dependant on assuming you know whats the most important thing to Iran, and it responding in a rational way. It might not respond rationally. Seizing Qashm though, it doesn't matter really whether Iran reacts ration ally or irationally. You have achieved the objective of opening up a waterway. Whether or not Iran can ship out product doesn't really affect the world economy, ots something that only really matters to Iran.

45 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

So the many attacks on the USA, the attempts to overthrow the strategic Gulf state governments, the support and financing of international terrorism, should all be ignored because it isn't Iran's fault?

Iran helped create millions of refugees who poured into the west. It was Iran the kept Assad's regime in place, that won't let Iraq heal, that keeps the Yemen civil war going and that won't let the Lebanese get rid of Hezbollah.

That's not what he said. As usual, you twist the words and use Strawman. Plus your paragraphs are littered with inaccuracies and half truths.

1 hour ago, Roadsternut said:

ts an island covered in complex industrial pipework, likely booby trapped, a large plantation providing cover, and a substantive town with 10,000 civilians. The island is also covered in caves, manmade and natural, and over the last 45 years a substantial tunnel network interconnecting bunkers has been constructed.

As I have posted elsewhere they may decide to "give up" Kharg and put up a token resistance having already withdrawn all non essential personnel. As the occupation starts they can withdraw etc and let the US land and then starve/wipe them out at their lesure!

14 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

Seizing Qashm though, it doesn't matter really whether Iran reacts ration ally or irationally. You have achieved the objective of opening up a waterway

How does seizing AND holding Qashm open the straights?

Attacks on shipping can still continue without it!

And pity the poor troops who once landed would be under constant attack with NO help from the local population or for reliable resupply from the US!.

6 hours ago, davb said:

Yes. Let's just get it over with. Iran regularly kills people, and even tried to kill President Trump. They make the world worse. Time to go.

Looking at that poster, can we expect to wait another 3 years 6 months?

1 hour ago, Roadsternut said:

Its an island covered in complex industrial pipework, likely booby trapped, a large plantation providing cover, and a substantive town with 10,000 civilians. The island is also covered in caves, manmade and natural, and over the last 45 years a substantial tunnel network interconnecting bunkers has been constructed. Not that dissimilar to the Azovstal Iron and Steel Work in Mariual, well a well motivated defence held a superior Russian force at bay for months, eventually falling but not before really destruction of the plant.

How many IRGC do you suppose there are on Kharg? Given the Americans announced weeks ago when the Marines would arrive, how quickly could the island be reinforced from the mainland?

Coincidently the invasion of Grenada was called Operation Urgent Fury. For that invasion, the US faced about 700 Cuba paramilitaries, and about 2 old armoured cars. The invasion force put together was about 7000-8000 Marines. So a 10-1 advantage, and the Cubans weren't suicidal.

Taking Kharg Island is complete fantasy. The Ospreys don't have the range to fly from the Gulf of Oman. The Tripoli will need to get closer, and run the Gauntlet of the Straits. Or the Ospreys will have to decamp to an onshore rally locaton, completely losing suprise, which is the whole <deleted> point of the Ospreys.

Taking the island is not like invading Iraq. There is no advantage through manoeuvre warfare. There is only one beach where the Landing craft can put ashore. The Iranians know that, because they have very similar equipment in this regard as the Marines. There is only one spot for the Ospreys to put down, and that's the airport, with its now heavily cratered runway. So besides the actual 2000 fighting marines you have, you also need the SeeBees in working double time to get that airport fixed, to reinforce the Marines who by now are discovering every corner, every pipe valve, is an IED hellhole.

And this will be a case, perhaps the first, of an island being invaded with zero naval support, because the Americans don't have any meaningful navy in the Gulf. 2 of the LCSs have <deleted> off to Singapore, the remaining two are supposed to be out hunting mines. These LCSs have air defence and a singke 57mm cannon, along with some 50 cals. Temu Operation Overlord.

There is no extraction plan for the Marines, there is no reinforcement; the marines going in have zero reserve, The reserve is over in the States. If they are stuck on the beaches, help ain't coming. There is a high chance it will fail. This will be occupying the Brass's thinking. This was never planned for.

Some realism

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/kharg-island-iran/

All true, but they will have Whiskey Pete leading the Charge!

Are the US service chiefs prepared to say "no"?

1 hour ago, ronnie50 said:

Ok interesting analysis of Kharg. But do you think Kharg is indeed the plan for invasion or is there a different plan for those Marines?

What ever they plan they will F k it up there not to good on planning.

Ultimately of course it is a not question for us foreigners but for the people of thr USA, decided by their elected representatives in Congress.

Oh <deleted>!

49 minutes ago, Bannoi said:

I propose everyone tells Trump he's won, he's the greatest wartime president the world has ever seen we've even minted a never seen before extra large gold medal just for him and from now on Iran will forever be called Trumpland because the whole world is so grateful to him.

And could he please call the carriers back to the US because all the crews want to honour him with a big parade and be there to see when he is presented with his big beautiful exploding gold medal.

That's all folks job done wars finished easy peasy.

Oh and don't forget my Nobel Peace Prize after all i ended most wars.

6 hours ago, KhunLA said:

No, that would be silly waste of resources, as any ground fight wouldn't accomplish anything. Better to carpet bomb the whole country if wanting to make a real change

OK, just take out Khang Island will be enough. No oil exports, no govt funding, no paid military ... revolution

https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/20/b-52s-launch-fairford-impressive-payload/#

B52 s head for Iran with a heavy load

6 hours ago, connda said:

You sound like Gen Curtis Lemay. My father was personal friends with Lemay so I heard all of that during Vietnam. "Ahhhggggrrr - carpet bomb North Vietnam!" Hell, Lemay bragged that there were virtually no building left standing in North Korea when the fighting ended and the line drawn at the 38th parallel, yet look at the DPRK now. Bombing just p***es off those being bombed.

Economic pundits say an unchecked Iran will lead to 30 s style depression in future ,so I say bomb em hard

U.S. Air Force strategic bombers deployed to RAF Fairford continue to participate in Operation Epic Fury, with near-daily flights from both the B-1s and B-52s, the latter showcasing a hefty external payload. 

While base security forces and local police continue efforts to keep RAF Fairford secure, using road closures, parking restrictions, and privacy screens, aviation enthusiasts are still managing to get clear glimpses of the deployed force of B-1B Lancer and B-52H Stratofortress bombers as they arrive and depart from the Gloucestershire base. 

22 minutes ago, scottiejohn said:

As I have posted elsewhere they may decide to "give up" Kharg and put up a token resistance having already withdrawn all non essential personnel. As the occupation starts they can withdraw etc and let the US land and then starve/wipe them out at their lesure!

How does seizing AND holding Qashm open the straights?

Attacks on shipping can still continue without it!

And pity the poor troops who once landed would be under constant attack with NO help from the local population or for reliable resupply from the US!.

Iran has invested huge amounts into a large drone base and anti-shipping missile batteries on Qeshm, and the small surrounding (unihabited) islands. Iran wanted to turn Qeshm into some sort of Singapore-like Freeport. But it has become Singpore like in one respect; Singapore was known for massive naval guns pointing out to sea. But it had a soft behind.

Iran has basically taken over the old British naval facilties and greatly expanded them. Its been described as missile city, and is massively armed, pointing out into the Straits, to interdict shipping.

There are 4 naval bases in the area:

1. Bandar Abbas; this is really where their home fleet is (was) based. It was where their Drone Carrier was based, now sunk.

2. Konarak Base: Brown and Root built this. The Iranian marines are based here

3. Minab; the IRGC naval base in the area. The naval base that was where the school was hit.

4. Queshm. This is where the main coast missile batteries are.

Its obvious how the capture of Qeshm will open up the Straits. Attacks, as they were, will substantially reduce, with no other fixed anti-shipping battery close by.

The population on Queshm are Sunni Baluchis. They do not support the Tehran government. There is local discontent to exploit there. Yes, the troops woild be under constant attack, like Kharg, but unlike Kharg, there will be a military purpose in defending it. Kharg has zero military purpose. Any purpose it has depends on how the Iranians react to seizing it. And its certainly not a given that they view it as existential, given they have other means to ship oil out, very other oil terminals.

Iranian oil exports have been declining for years. Natural gas production is much more important. They've been working on international pipeline projects to ship gas to Turkey and India.

22 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/20/b-52s-launch-fairford-impressive-payload/#

B52 s head for Iran with a heavy load

Economic pundits say an unchecked Iran will lead to 30 s style depression in future ,so I say bomb em hard

Not much of a thinker, are you.

1 minute ago, Roadsternut said:

Its obvious how the capture of Qeshm will open up the Straits. Attacks, as they were, will substantially reduce, with no other fixed anti-shipping battery close by.

Iran does NOT need anti shipping batteries on Qeshm to keep the Straits shut!

They have high speedboats, mines (laid or not-just the declaration), submarines,, drones, missiles etc!

They also have Jask on the eastern side of the Gulf of Oman and all the coastline going down to it!

They also of course control all of the northern coast of the gulf!

4 hours ago, Hummin said:

Horrible methods, but thats what they needed obviously

We are chasing ever declining grades of everything.

Back in the day, 5 g/tonne of gold was the limit of recoverable gold. Now. less than 1 g/tonne is classed as proven reserves.

When a country wants to offer freedom to the citizens of another country, first use intelligence agencies to find out the level of support of the locals. Make sure they understand what will happen.

Explain to the locals that freedom may involve killing their children in schools. Explain that at some point the locals will be bombed in their beds and shot if found walking to the market for food. Explain that their hospitals will have no electricity for operating theaters or emergency care and even bombed;

Then ask them again - do you accept that we will use millions of tons off ordnance to kill you before we bring you freedom?

This is good to see. 75% "No" to supporting invasion. Ya'll have renewed my faith in humankind. Those 17% war-mongers unfortunately are cut from the same cloth as Trump, which I find concerning. And Trump isn't going to listen to the will of the common people who don't want war. And that is why the Republicans are going to get creamed in the mid-terms. If we collectively make it to the mid-terms.

I think he should send his ICE agents to Iran instead of america's airports tomorrow.

donnies personal gestapo agents should be able to handle it with ease.

48 minutes ago, Cave Johnson said:

I think he should send his ICE agents to Iran instead of america's airports tomorrow.

donnies personal gestapo agents should be able to handle it with ease.

Thats the consensus from the farleft (personal Gestapo) fact of the matter they were approved by a 2002 Dem/GOP Congress in a bipartisan vote enacting the Homeland Security Act.

The very reason for ICE is to enforce U.S. immigration laws and combat cross border crime in the interior of the country, while protecting national security and public safety,all as part of the post 9/11 reorganization that created (DHS) via the Homeland Security Act of 2002.

It was a strongly bipartisan measure . Far from a partisan Gestapo creation, it reflected consensus in Congress at the time to strengthen domestic security after the September 11 attacks.

Along came Biden/Harris and through the open borders crisis into the mix allowing million upon millions unvetted, 650k known criminals ,1.5 million gotaways ,which the left is fighting to keep in country.

History seems to be repeating itself with terror now and terror then,just as the creation of ICE and the DHS in 2002 was a bipartisan response to the genuine terror of the 9/11 attacks (to prevent future foreign sponsored terrorism on U.S. soil by consolidating immigration enforcement, border security, and domestic intelligence), today's far left are now labeling ICE itself as a source of terror .

This is what the Yanks will be up against if they try and sail down the straits or any shipping that are enemys aganst Iran. Go for it. Watch the full video.

All you need is Special Ops

17 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Really, that's what you get from my post. Jesting about whole country, obviously, maybe not to some. Just take the oil pier, and they'll have their own revolution.

missed the ROFL guy

You have been paying attention to what’s happening to the prices of oil, gas, and fertilizers?

2 hours ago, Yagoda said:

All you need is Special Ops

Put the remote down, put your empties in the recycle bin and get your boots on lad.

If the objective is to open the strait which it should be, the easiest way to achieve that is to stop the threats stop the bombing and start with the dialog.

But then I suppose Trump would have to admit he was wrong so all we can really expect is more threats, tweets and escalation.

No doubt the mad king is busy angrily typing away IN CAPS right now on truth social about how the Iranians are finished and how great he is, or how he is going to send 10 million marines to kidnap the new ayatollah or shut down all the kebab shops because they look too much like a taco and their not taking him seriously.

52 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You have been paying attention to what’s happening to the prices of oil, gas, and fertilizers?

Yep, even posted the petrol prices here, TH as they increased since unfreezing diesel on the 18th. Not to bad here, < 10%

USA, surely lots of price gouging by big oil, and local stations. No increase here, TH, today or scheduled for tomorrow ... yet

11 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Yep, even posted the petrol prices here, TH as they increased since unfreezing diesel on the 18th. Not to bad here, < 10%

USA, surely lots of price gouging by big oil, and local stations. No increase here, TH, today or scheduled for tomorrow ... yet

Why do you think the text in the right hand column is red?

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

Why do you think the text in the right hand column is red?

Because that highlights the increase, with amount next to it, in uncropped photo.

this is how they look in daily posting, I edited to save space, if an increase planned for the next day, it's highlighted in red, with amount next to it. None for tomorrow ... yet, although it's early ... https://www.bangchak.co.th/en/oilprice

Anything else I can help you with ?

19 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Because that highlights the increase, with amount next to it, in uncropped photo.

this is how they look in daily posting, I edited to save space, if an increase planned for the next day, it's highlighted in red, with amount next to it. None for tomorrow ... yet, although it's early ... https://www.bangchak.co.th/en/oilprice

Anything else I can help you with ?

Thank you for providing evidence of price increases at the pump.

Now all you have to do is explain how the rise in the price of crude is not going to work its way through to a rise at the pump.

4 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Thank you for providing evidence of price increases at the pump.

Now all you have to do is explain how the rise in the price of crude is not going to work its way through to a rise at the pump.

That would only need to be explained to a total idiot, along with the price at the pump, affecting shipping cost, with end user consumer paying more for anything purchased. Outside of TH, and other countries that don't allow diesel price gouging, sort of.

Why TH freezes diesel price, and offsets the cost (petrol fund loss) on other petrol. Let those that don't conserve, who can afford it, to replenish that fund. Very smart move, and keeps 'across the board inflation' down. Socialism & democracy, working together, go figure.

Some countries. like USA, need to take notice, but a subject for another day, another thread.

You assume people are that stupid, they can't think for themselves. OK, I do also at times, but this one is too easy.

14 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

That would only need to be explained to a total idiot, along with the price at the pump, affecting shipping cost, with end user consumer paying more for anything purchased. Outside of TH, and other countries that don't allow diesel price gouging, sort of.

Why TH freezes diesel price, and offsets the cost (petrol fund loss) on other petrol. Let those that don't conserve, who can afford it, to replenish that fund. Very smart move, and keeps 'across the board inflation' down. Socialism & democracy, working together, go figure.

Some countries. like USA, need to take notice, but a subject for another day, another thread.

You assume people are that stupid, they can't think for themselves. OK, I do also at times, but this one is too easy.

I don’t assume anyone is stupid, rather I rely on the evidence they present.

Thailand’s efforts to reduce the impact of fuel price increases do not remove price increases.

Meanwhile there’s also the issue of fertilizer costs.

All totally unnecessary outcomes of this illegal Israeli/US war on Iran.

A ground war will only make matters worse.

American sons and daughters being exchanged for folded flags while oil companies rake in obscene profits soaked in blood.

‘Gouging’ is chump change on this war.

The Iranians understand that the war can only end if the United States suffers unacceptable damage. However, the United States is very far away, and inflicting such damage is very difficult. Fortunately for Iran, American soldiers will come. Putin and Xi are rubbing their hands with glee and preparing to play peacekeepers.

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I don’t assume anyone is stupid, rather I rely on the evidence they present.

Thailand’s efforts to reduce the impact of fuel price increases do not remove price increases.

Meanwhile there’s also the issue of fertilizer costs.

All totally unnecessary outcomes of this illegal Israeli/US war on Iran.

A ground war will only make matters worse.

American sons and daughters being exchanged for folded flags while oil companies rake in obscene profits soaked in blood.

‘Gouging’ is chump change on this war.

TH also asks suppliers & vendors to not price gouge, the next 60 days. If big chains & wet/fresh markets play along, which I think they have, then all should be OK.

Save your doom & gloom for other countries, where people screwing their fellow consumers is ingrained in their DNA. Most Thais realize, we're all in this together, so let's try to get through together as best we can. Working nicely without outside influences.

If living here, TH, try noticing the good, instead of expecting the worse in people.