to Jai Dee.... excellent to involve yourself and encouraging political involvement in your family. I, likewise, did the same as rather more important than taking a particular side on a political issue is having people aware that there IS a political issue and that they need to be involved in it. So, good for you for encouraging the discussion.

Just trying to do my bit to help people improve themselves mate... informed is so much better than ignorance hey?

Over the past 4 years of my marriage my wife has learnt (from me) to question things and not be so accepting.

She has said to me on a number of occasions that I have taught her to be this way, and she thinks its a good thing.

If I can help her family to be a little more aware of their world and make them realise that they can influence it as well, I will have achieved something positive.

Information though is extremely difficult to come by here, especially written in a language that the lesser educated can understand. I have had to go through quite some lengths to get my wife books on contemporary history and politics, and some, especially concerning the forbidden subject, is only available in English. Still though - at home this is not a forbidden subject, fortunately.

My wife was never a Thaksin supporter, but she does understand the agenda behind the constitution, and voted 'No'. We believe that a 'No' vote was the only way to get Thailand ahead, and fortunately 40% of fellow Thais though the same thing. Thaksin may have been not nice, but there is far worse out here.

even more fortunate, 58% of fellow Thais thought differently and voted approval of the referendum.

even more fortunate, 58% of fellow Thais thought differently and voted approval of the referendum.

The interesting aspect to research would be how many of those 58% voted "Yes" because they have felt it would be the fastest way to get the military out of politics, and did not approve of the coup in any way. I would guess that this was a high enough percentage to be able to confidently and safely assume that the majority of Thais did not approve of the military coup as a solution to a political crises, and also did not approve of the performance of this government as well.

I speak to many Thais, and I believe most know far more than you give them credit for.

I would then advise you to ask Thais about the details of what happened in '76.

even more fortunate, 58% of fellow Thais thought differently and voted approval of the referendum.

The interesting aspect to research would be how many of those 58% voted "Yes" because they have felt it would be the fastest way to get the military out of politics, and did not approve of the coup in any way. I would guess that this was a high enough percentage to be able to confidently and safely assume that the majority of Thais did not approve of the military coup as a solution to a political crises, and also did not approve of the performance of this government as well.

It would be indeed interesting to analyze many aspects of the referendum voting... such as how many of the losing side voted simply No because they were paid to and have really nothing against the coup or how many didn't vote because their ID cards had been taken.

As there is NO in-depth analysis, proposing conclusions based on one or the other side is just pointless speculation without any validation to speak of... and at the end of the day..... and it's been 2 weeks now....

the bottom line is that the referendum was APPROVED and passed.... by a comfortable margin.

I speak to many Thais, and I believe most know far more than you give them credit for.

I would then advise you to ask Thais about the details of what happened in '76.

How big was the middle class in 1976? How much fixed foreign investment existed here in 1976? What was the average number of years of school attendence in 1976? How diversified was the Thai economy in 1976? What left wing militant factions exist presently that would challenge the status quo? Do you think the army and a bunch of roving thiugs would be as likely to massacre groups of people like this?

How big was the middle class in 1976? How much fixed foreign investment existed here in 1976? What was the average number of years of school attendence in 1976? How diversified was the Thai economy in 1976? What left wing militant factions exist presently that would challenge the status quo? Do you think the army and a bunch of roving thiugs would be as likely to massacre groups of people like this?

In 2003 several thousand Thais were executed by police, army, border police and militia members, with the support of the middle class as well. And the next such adventure might happen very soon against another enemy of the Thai state. The organizational structure is already in place, the weapons have been distributed, only the right time and conditions have not come to pass yet.

It doesn't matter who the enemy is - what matters is the response of the Thai state, both physical and ideological.

It would be indeed interesting to analyze many aspects of the referendum voting... such as how many of the losing side voted simply No because they were paid to and have really nothing against the coup or how many didn't vote because their ID cards had been taken.

As there is NO in-depth analysis, proposing conclusions based on one or the other side is just pointless speculation without any validation to speak of... and at the end of the day..... and it's been 2 weeks now....

the bottom line is that the referendum was APPROVED and passed.... by a comfortable margin.

Always easy to accuse opponents of vote buying, nevertheless that vote buying by itself has very little effect on the outcome. The ever present patronage system has more effect though, and there all sides are equally guilty.

This referendum though happened under almost complete control of the army. Opponents had very little access to the media, were harassed, and had to campaign under martial law.

We can very much exclude now that under those conditions much vote buying by the opposition was possible, and their patronage networks have been severely hindered.

Comfortable margin? Well, not according to the army whose leaders have in public admitted that they have expected a larger margin.

And if you translate this margin to the next elections, a for the army very uncomfortable outcome is likely, and therefore more doctoring is to be expected. Which means a very dirty elections, and not much free and fair democracy. Gen. Sonthi has already announced that martial law is unlikely to be lifted before the elections, even though no classic reason exists to keep martial law outside the three southernmost provinces.

This will add to the already very uncomfortable perception the rest of the world has of Thailand and its future stability. And that will also translate in a decreased foreign investment.

How big was the middle class in 1976? How much fixed foreign investment existed here in 1976? What was the average number of years of school attendence in 1976? How diversified was the Thai economy in 1976? What left wing militant factions exist presently that would challenge the status quo? Do you think the army and a bunch of roving thiugs would be as likely to massacre groups of people like this?

In 2003 several thousand Thais were executed by police, army, border police and militia members, with the support of the middle class as well. And the next such adventure might happen very soon against another enemy of the Thai state. The organizational structure is already in place, the weapons have been distributed, only the right time and conditions have not come to pass yet.

It doesn't matter who the enemy is - what matters is the response of the Thai state, both physical and ideological.

Well. the only two possible groups I can think of, are Muslim "militants" and us foreigners (which would be a big stretch).

You know, evil likes to live in the dark. If you think you know something, share it widely. Shine a light. Maybe if what you think you know, were known by all it would pre-empt a tragedy.

Well. the only two possible groups I can think of, are Muslim "militants" and us foreigners (which would be a big stretch).

You know, evil likes to live in the dark. If you think you know something, share it widely. Shine a light. Maybe if what you think you know, were known by all it would pre-empt a tragedy.

Yes, it is not us foreigners. We aren't that important.

Evil in the dark is very frightening, especially when heavily armed and receiving support from very high up. Just go into the details of what happened before '76, and you understand what is in the process to be built up down south. Names change - the game stays the same.

Any more - and we might break some forum rules very quickly.

Well. the only two possible groups I can think of, are Muslim "militants" and us foreigners (which would be a big stretch).

You know, evil likes to live in the dark. If you think you know something, share it widely. Shine a light. Maybe if what you think you know, were known by all it would pre-empt a tragedy.

Yes, it is not us foreigners. We aren't that important.

Evil in the dark is very frightening, especially when heavily armed and receiving support from very high up. Just go into the details of what happened before '76, and you understand what is in the process to be built up down south. Names change - the game stays the same.

Any more - and we might break some forum rules very quickly.

It's sad to think that should come to pass. Timing seems difficult though. It would have to happen really soon. or there'd have to be another coup post election. If Abhisit were elected, there's no way he would stand for that. especially as his predecessor is now being held personally accountable for his murderous ways. edit: or the election is put off indefinately.

Well. the only two possible groups I can think of, are Muslim "militants" and us foreigners (which would be a big stretch).

You know, evil likes to live in the dark. If you think you know something, share it widely. Shine a light. Maybe if what you think you know, were known by all it would pre-empt a tragedy.

Yes, it is not us foreigners. We aren't that important.

Evil in the dark is very frightening, especially when heavily armed and receiving support from very high up. Just go into the details of what happened before '76, and you understand what is in the process to be built up down south. Names change - the game stays the same.

Any more - and we might break some forum rules very quickly.

It's sad to think that should come to pass. Timing seems difficult though. It would have to happen really soon. or there'd have to be another coup post election. If Abhisit were elected, there's no way he would stand for that. especially as his predecessor is now being held personally accountable for his murderous ways. edit: or the election is put off indefinately.

I doubt that Abhisit would have any power over such a thing. The organizational structure is deeply rooted in the informal power networks and reaches far higher than a mere civilian PM. I also have serious doubts that Abhisit will become PM without serious doctoring.

I am also not convinced that Thaksin was responsible for the drugwar killings in the way how it is generally assumed. He alone could not have pulled the drug war off the way it was played out.

But, you made a previous post that explained the futility of such discussions. We will forever have to dance around the issues.

Comfortable margin? Well, not according to the army whose leaders have in public admitted that they have expected a larger margin.

And if you translate this margin to the next elections, a for the army very uncomfortable outcome is likely, and therefore more doctoring is to be expected. Which means a very dirty elections, and not much free and fair democracy. Gen. Sonthi has already announced that martial law is unlikely to be lifted before the elections, even though no classic reason exists to keep martial law outside the three southernmost provinces.

This will add to the already very uncomfortable perception the rest of the world has of Thailand and its future stability. And that will also translate in a decreased foreign investment.

why do you think they are so adamant against EU's involvement in the elections? and dont give us that hype theory about how the 'old powers' influenced the EU. is Thaksin really that powerful? seems thats what the current government, CNS and election commission are saying

even IF the EU is influenced by Thaksin (lets say he has SOOOOOOOO much influence, and the EU is so easily led) what does this government fear? what do they have to hide?

by the way......observers from outside HAVE BEEN present at other elections that took place in thailand...and yes even during Thaksin's time. so dont try to oversell the 'we need to maintain our soveriegnty' argument. having outside observers is just another watchdog role.....an independent monitoring. isnt that part of rule of law that they keep accusing Thaksin denied Thailand?

if we are to have a fair analysis.....to a logical person...how can you say that an elections commission thats 'installed' by the government, who are in turn 'installed' by the army...will be operating independently? under this circumstance, ofcourse you need a more independent body to monitor the elections. the media is no longer free to perform their role properly...either that or they dont care and still have the 'anything to get rid of Thaksin attitude'. either way...the media is now useless.

so why not the international community.

Comfortable margin? Well, not according to the army whose leaders have in public admitted that they have expected a larger margin.

And if you translate this margin to the next elections, a for the army very uncomfortable outcome is likely, and therefore more doctoring is to be expected. Which means a very dirty elections, and not much free and fair democracy. Gen. Sonthi has already announced that martial law is unlikely to be lifted before the elections, even though no classic reason exists to keep martial law outside the three southernmost provinces.

This will add to the already very uncomfortable perception the rest of the world has of Thailand and its future stability. And that will also translate in a decreased foreign investment.

why do you think they are so adamant against EU's involvement in the elections? and dont give us that hype theory about how the 'old powers' influenced the EU. is Thaksin really that powerful? seems thats what the current government, CNS and election commission are saying

even IF the EU is influenced by Thaksin (lets say he has SOOOOOOOO much influence, and the EU is so easily led) what does this government fear? what do they have to hide?

by the way......observers from outside HAVE BEEN present at other elections that took place in thailand...and yes even during Thaksin's time. so dont try to oversell the 'we need to maintain our soveriegnty' argument. having outside observers is just another watchdog role.....an independent monitoring. isnt that part of rule of law that they keep accusing Thaksin denied Thailand?

if we are to have a fair analysis.....to a logical person...how can you say that an elections commission thats 'installed' by the government, who are in turn 'installed' by the army...will be operating independently? under this circumstance, ofcourse you need a more independent body to monitor the elections. the media is no longer free to perform their role properly...either that or they dont care and still have the 'anything to get rid of Thaksin attitude'. either way...the media is now useless.

so why not the international community.

There might be a little of the "we don't need our parents watching over us" attitude.

If some other country wanted to observe the way I was conducting business in my own country I would tell them to <deleted> off too.

With the next elections I will be very surprised if the result is greatly different from the way it is being planned at this point in time.

Cheers.

As somebody said in another thread, there really ought to be an international organ to monitor elections in all countries, a world standard.

If this were accepted practice it would make it so much harder for dishonest forces to refuse.

P Meadish....

perhaps the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance(IDEA) is an option.

they do work on electoral process -- design, monitoring, etc etc

But how would you make a sovereign country who isn't putting their hands out for any special assistance be a party to something that they consider is not in the best interest of their country?

Like USA not signing Kyoto protocol on gas emitions?

first -- would be interesting to hear why they think its 'bad' for the country?

monitoring is not exactly interfering. they do not change the rules of the game. that is still maintained by the thai elections commission. so how would that constitute interfering with thailand's sovereignty?

how does one convince the present government? the same chance anyone would have at convincing Burma/Myanmar's military junta

Perhaps if the UK invited Thailand to monitor their coming elections the Thais would be better minded to reciprocate.

By suggesting they " need " monitoring, the current incumbents lose face. They may well " need " it. However, if anyone thinks they will be happy to admit the fact...........................................

What was the result of the assessment by the EU election monitors when they monitored the 2005 elections in Thailand?

Well. the only two possible groups I can think of, are Muslim "militants" and us foreigners (which would be a big stretch).

You know, evil likes to live in the dark. If you think you know something, share it widely. Shine a light. Maybe if what you think you know, were known by all it would pre-empt a tragedy.

Here's finally an article on Buddhist vigilante groups i have waited for several months to appear. This shows only the tip of the iceberg of what is lurking in the dark:

KOLOMUDO VILLAGE, Thailand -- The black-uniformed raiders roared into this Thai Muslim village, firing assault rifles and hurling grenades from a pickup truck at a group of teenagers relaxing near the mosque. When the attack was over, five of the youths lay dead.

As they have done in the past, authorities initially said the killers were Muslim insurgents terrorizing their own people in their separatist war against the Buddhist-dominated central government.

But then the official line on the village raid changed, with senior military commanders shifting suspicion to Buddhist vigilantes and heightening fears that the four-year-old conflict in Thailand's southern Muslim provinces is entering an ominous new phase.

continued there:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/200...057/0/RSS_WORLD

But how would you make a sovereign country who isn't putting their hands out for any special assistance be a party to something that they consider is not in the best interest of their country?

Like USA not signing Kyoto protocol on gas emitions?

Well, it could not be done with coercion obviously - only positive peer pressure. You cannot force democracy and transparency upon people unless you plan to keep sticking the gun in their face forever.

But just as in the case with the US and the Kyoto protocol, refusing to participate in positive development almost everybody else is contributing to, will make you lose face internationally, even if you are important enough to the world economy to feel you don't need to care.

What was the result of the assessment by the EU election monitors when they monitored the 2005 elections in Thailand?

That would be interesting to know...

I bet you even money the report has been shredded under the threat of "no more prawns, bannanas & rice" for the EU countries if that official report sees the light of day.

But why would the EU feel they have a "need" or even a "right" to look into another sovereign country's affairs anyway? Sound like a bunch of nosy parkas.

Well. the only two possible groups I can think of, are Muslim "militants" and us foreigners (which would be a big stretch).

You know, evil likes to live in the dark. If you think you know something, share it widely. Shine a light. Maybe if what you think you know, were known by all it would pre-empt a tragedy.

Here's finally an article on Buddhist vigilante groups i have waited for several months to appear. This shows only the tip of the iceberg of what is lurking in the dark:

KOLOMUDO VILLAGE, Thailand -- The black-uniformed raiders roared into this Thai Muslim village, firing assault rifles and hurling grenades from a pickup truck at a group of teenagers relaxing near the mosque. When the attack was over, five of the youths lay dead.

As they have done in the past, authorities initially said the killers were Muslim insurgents terrorizing their own people in their separatist war against the Buddhist-dominated central government.

But then the official line on the village raid changed, with senior military commanders shifting suspicion to Buddhist vigilantes and heightening fears that the four-year-old conflict in Thailand's southern Muslim provinces is entering an ominous new phase.

continued there:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/200...057/0/RSS_WORLD

Not surprised vigilantes are coming out of the wood work. After four years the govt. has achieved nothing, except intensify the situation - probably mostly from a lack a spine, which those being bombed & shot & burn't everyday have had enough. Can't help but wonder if it is actually in the interest of the government to have a little war going on in their backyard to take the focus off other issues at hand.

To tell the truth I am surprised there hasn't been more covert retaliation to extremist muslim radicals (Waddahism? sp?) like reprisal terrorist actions aginst Mecca etc.

Not surprised vigilantes are coming out of the wood work. After four years the govt. has achieved nothing, except intensify the situation - probably mostly from a lack a spine, which those being bombed & shot & burn't everyday have had enough. Can't help but wonder if it is actually in the interest of the government to have a little war going on in their backyard to take the focus off other issues at hand.

To tell the truth I am surprised there hasn't been more covert retaliation to extremist muslim radicals (Waddahism? sp?) like reprisal terrorist actions aginst Mecca etc.

Down South the insurgency is not driven by Wahabism, but more by style Sunnies and the dream of Raj Pattani.

As to Vigilantism on an international scale, well, any attack on Mecca would mean jihad. If you really are interested in escalating terrorism into a full blown world war - then this would a good strategy.

Lack of spine by the government? How would you propose then to fight such an insurgency without resorting to tactics that will see the whole Muslim population there up in arms, including an invasion of foreign fighters coming to support?

I guess I was under the mistaken belief that this thread was about farang's political power.

Lack of spine by the government? How would you propose then to fight such an insurgency without resorting to tactics that will see the whole Muslim population there up in arms, including an invasion of foreign fighters coming to support?

I have no idea how to fight a war against an insurgency. An army division comprised only of Muslim loyalists? The three southern provinces only policed by Muslim loyalists? Give in to all of their demands at the end of invisable guns?

I don't think compromise is possible & if the situation had occured fifty years earlier the army would have rolled in and just laid waste to all suspected areas of insurgent strongholds. Forget collateral damage.

Comment going around the Thai's is that if the miltary actually wanted to root out all the insurgents, they have the means to do it & could get it done in a reasonably short time frame.

SJ - Sorry the thread has meandered a little. Maybe a better title would have been "Minority Groups in Thailand: A Political Force or Farce".

Cheers.

After four years the govt. has achieved nothing, except intensify the situation - probably mostly from a lack a spine, which those being bombed & shot & burn't everyday have had enough. Can't help but wonder if it is actually in the interest of the government to have a little war going on in their backyard to take the focus off other issues at hand.

that AND dont forget how easy it is now to justify increase of militay budget in order to tackle the violence in the south

exactly what CNS has done. going even a step further to try also get government enterprise budget into their coffers,again citing the need to suppress insurgency down south.

the situation has escalated more and more since last October. a coincident? I dont know....maybe...maybe not. but one thing is...the people are so keen to see things improve, violence stop...that they wouldnt question the military too much when money is being pumped down there to fight the insurgency.

nice situation for some obviously.

and SJ, we are still somewhat on topic...as the thread is also about political discussion. can farangs be a political force? well to debate that its also good to establish how much farangs are aware of political issues in the country..and in my opinion everyone here is sharing their views, knowledge and opinions about a couple of political situations in thailand. I dont see why this should not be able to take place on this thread.

I guess I was under the mistaken belief that this thread was about farang's political power.

Around the corners Farang do have political power here, by shining light on many aspects of Thailand that cannot be discussed in public here in Thailand, and by publishing pieces such as the one on the Buddhist vigilantes (researched by Thais, but brought into the open by a "Farang" wire service and "Farang" newspapers.

Maybe the most politically influential work recently was the book that cannot be debated here (but is hotly debated in Thai circles), that has altered the perception of Thailand by both Thais and foreigners, written by a Farang, equally loathed and appreciated by many Thais.

that AND dont forget how easy it is now to justify increase of militay budget in order to tackle the violence in the south

The sad part is that the combat troops have received very little of that increased budget.

yep.....never intended for those present on the ground..facing the danger and risking their lives everyday.

intended for the said 'some'

the same way why ISOC initial request for money was refused by Thaksin's government....but now the request has been granted by Surayud's government. dont forget that ISOC consists of generals and admin military sitting in aircon offices in bangkok...and not the rank and file walking the streets down south thailand