1 hour ago, Effective altruism said:

Putin is more bluster than action. If he acted, the EU would likely issue a strong letter of protest.

The EU has no direct military prerogative It's not in the treaties signed by member States.

1 hour ago, save the frogs said:

Well Orban said EU thought Putin was bluffing the 1st time when he said he would invade Ukraine.

But maybe this time he is bluffing.

If Orban said that, he must have been hallucinating. Putin never threatened a full-scale invasion of Ukraine before the 2022 offensive began. In fact various Russian government members (including Putin) did the complete opposite, consistently denying having any such plans, even as a massive military buildup occurred along the border.

Below is an AI-generated summary of the denials and a couple of examples.

1 hour ago, Sir Dude said:

concentrate on China and the Pacific threatre. Pragmatic and Realpolitik policies in action.

The middle east war might have thrown a fly into that ointment, ask Taiwan where the THAAD system went.

1 hour ago, save the frogs said:

Well Orban said EU thought Putin was bluffing the 1st time when he said he would invade Ukraine.

But maybe this time he is bluffing.

Just to follow up on my earlier post, having done a couple of Google searches, I can't find anything indicating that Orban ever said that. Can you provide a source?

7 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

If Orban said that, he must have been hallucinating. Putin never threatened a full-scale invasion of Ukraine before the 2022 offensive began.

we are not invited to board meetings and we don't know all the conversations taking place behind the scenes.

1 hour ago, Effective altruism said:

It would only take an air campaign to ruin Russia's day in Ukraine. The air force would knock holes in the Russian lines, disrupt their supply lines, and allow Ukrainian ground forces to do their thing.

Indeed. Ukraine is Europe's best military asset, as it is the only country with expertise in the "new" way of making war, and the only people ready to die in a war. That's why Russia absolutely wants Uktaine's army to be downsized. Russia cannot fight on two fronts.

6 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

The war in Ukraine is a war Putin will lose

He's won already..as we see from the increasing desperate panic,rhetoric and propaganda

coming from the Europeans...who are talking about conscription and bringing their economies onto a war footing to try and repel the 'invading' Russian hordes.

12 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Just to follow up on my earlier post, having done a couple of Google searches, I can't find anything indicating that Orban ever said that. Can you provide a source?

Yeah, here it is.

He says Putin warned the EU for years that Ukraine joining NATO/EU was a border security threat to Russia.

This is a bit off topic, but Orban again.

He said the EU leaders pissed off Trump. They mocked him when he got elected because they think they are better because they have academic backgrounds and Trump comes from a lowly business class.

13 minutes ago, johng said:

He's won already

Won what?

Ukraine is still a country and fighting back somewhat effectively against the Russian tyrant!

1 hour ago, johng said:

Says you...and also the US equipment is indeed very expensive and high tech but the Russians can and do vastly out produce 'good enough' equipment..we just saw the Iranians fight the US/Isreal to a stand still.

I still love the space pen thing when the US spent millions inventing a pen that would write with low gravity

in space the Russians just used a pencil. 😄

It would not be an attritional war. Ukraine has significantly weakened Russian air defenses, and the USA has been mapping these defenses for years. The USA would achieve air superiority and devastate Russian ground forces. Then, Ukrainian forces would move forward to secure the territory.

2 hours ago, Effective altruism said:

It would only take an air campaign to ruin Russia's day in Ukraine. The air force would knock holes in the Russian lines, disrupt their supply lines, and allow Ukrainian ground forces to do their thing.

Oh for goodness sake stop with the "it would only take an air campaign" claims.

They have been around since Doolittle's ludicrous claims about bombs in pickle barrels. It didnt work in World War Ii, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq (twice), Afghanistan and now Iran.

You end it, you end all wars, by putting your troops on the enemies territory, and defeating them in ground fighting.

1 hour ago, johng said:

in space the Russians just used a pencil. 😄

1 minute ago, JAG said:

Oh for goodness sake stop with the "it would only take an air campaign" claims.

They have been around since Doolittle's ludicrous claims about bombs in pickle barrels. It didnt work in World War Ii, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq (twice), Afghanistan and now Iran.

You end it, you end all wars, by putting your troops on the enemies territory, and defeating them in ground fighting.

Read it again. I stated Ukraine would deal with the ground.

What does he have to gain in attacking Europe ? This sounds like some stale alarmist propaganda from some NATO arms lobby or more probabily from some Ukrainian troll farm. Let's hope Europe over funding ukraine, does not make the same mistake like America in getting drawn into war by Israel.

10 years from now we'll all be friends, Russia will join the EU, Trump will be happily gaga living in the looney house, Israel will convert to Islam, and the rest of us will all live happily ever after.

3 hours ago, johng said:

just one link for you

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newsliverpool/uk-conscription-age-range-for-ww3-explained-as-germany-brings-in-military-rule/ar-AA20cwCJ

What has that link got to do with non-Ukrainians fighting inside Ukraine?

It is only discussing German future conscription procedures!

It doesn't compel anyone into military service. Rather, it establishes a permanent, dependable registration framework so Berlin knows precisely who is available should an emergency emerge.

Putin lies almost as much Trump.

7 hours ago, Effective altruism said:

If Russia were to attack a NATO country, which nations do you think would respond? Spain? Belgium? Germany?

Imagine this: Russia attacks a Baltic State. The NATO generals orders their armies to "defend" any of those Baltic States.

Problem: Foot soldiers are not going to follow those marching orders, as they don't even know where to find those countries on the map. They only now that those "miniature countries" are a thousand miles away, far from their country and their families.

De Gaulle knew that this concept would not work when it comes to the "nitty gritty".

6 hours ago, save the frogs said:

Yeah, here it is.

He says Putin warned the EU for years that Ukraine joining NATO/EU was a border security threat to Russia.

So Orban - the great defender of Hungarian national sovereignty - does not believe that Ukraine should be allowed to determine its own future. There's a word for that.

Western Europe is fortunate. As long as Putin is busy in the Ukraine, he will not be able to conduct any "secondary warfare" somewhere else.

And this is despictable: Europe can only hope that the Ukraine keeps Putin busy for the next 10 years. Because thats how long it will take Europe to "rearm" (if everything goes according to plan). Longer if the US pulls out of NATO.

A perverted world. Europeans hoping that the "Ukrainian war" will last as long as possible, putting expansionist plans of Putin "on hold" as long as possible.

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Putin lies almost as much Trump.

You lie more than Putin.

8 hours ago, johng said:

Just like the mighty military of Uncle Sam and BiBi have done in Iran ?

..except Russia is better armed than Iran and also the largest country in the world..not to mention the nukes

but I just did oh ohh !!

America is hamstrung by having no stomach for invading and occupying Iran.

Anyone thinking that any part of NATO strategy involves invading Russia hasn't a clue.......likewise in thinking that Russia will initiate nuclear war to keep hold of the territory it occupies in Ukraine.

All that is needed is to eject Russia from Ukraine........the depth of Russia within its own borders is utterly irrelevant

The numbers are not the same as they used to be.......Russia no longer has WARPAC at its disposal.

European NATO alone has an economy and population much larger than Russia.

Focus that on the war in Ukraine, do to Russia in Ukraine what the US has done to Iran.

Ukraine has zero qualms and will be perfectly happy, without hesitation, to put boots back on its own ground..........and Putin is finished.

8 hours ago, candide said:

The EU has no direct military prerogative It's not in the treaties signed by member States.

Then they can make new treaties.

10 hours ago, JAG said:

A Russian attack on a European factory (almost inevitably in a NATO member) would bring in NATO, inevitably. We would at least know where the USA then stands...

My guess is that Trump will refuse any treaty obligations, and Vance will jeer from the sidelines. Whiskey Pete may go so far as to say a prayer!

Still, at least we will know where we stand, and I am sure that there has been some very high level contingency planning for just such an event; probably not including the Americans as they would simply pass it all on to the Russians.

More likely Russia will use proxies to attempts acts of sabotage, such as arson.

https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-gebrev-ammunition-depot-explosion/31967824.html

https://www.counterterrorism.police.uk/men-who-organised-russia-backed-arson-at-london-warehouse-jailed/

SInce 2022, there have been 190 events, including acts of sabotage, suspected of being orchestrated by Moscow against European targets.

10 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

He would not dare as he would pummelled by nato to rubble ,an attack on 1 member means as onslaught from the rest of the members

He thugs are always making threats of an empty nature ,they are all brain addled from vodka

So what we really need is another vodka coupe .

One which works this time ?

Perhaps Ukraine should kick it off by

bombing Russia's distillers so they turn to

moon shine !

1 hour ago, Enoon said:

Then they can make new treaties.

It's not going to happen.

3 hours ago, RayC said:

So Orban - the great defender of Hungarian national sovereignty - does not believe that Ukraine should be allowed to determine its own future. There's a word for that.

It lead to a war.

If that's what you wanted, then that's what you got.

Nothin' ain't free, boy.

Germany has an exit ban for men under 45.

Wonder if it's in case of war escalating.

4 hours ago, Yagoda said:

You lie more than Putin.

You define banal, obsessive and an utter inability to discuss or debate.

If anyone advances a point of view with which you don't agree up goes the immature shriek: "you lie..."

Honestly, when I was teaching there were 8 year olds who showed greater maturity and more ability to understand and consider different points of view than you!