Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[jaideeguy]

Taxin returns, things go back to normal....what ever that is/was?????

the 'devil we know' is sometimes better!!!!

tomorrow will tell, maybe.

[britmaveric]

Good news - democracy and TRT returns to power as it should be. Got to laff at the junta - mind you they still have power and its yet to be seen what they will do next since this didnt go as they planned.

[bulmercke]

Have just finished listening to Abhisit on TV - everything still appears to be 'up in the air' - obviously a lot going on behind the scenes now - but a command appears to have been issued earlier this evening and that appears to be that.

The Dusit poll is a credible poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points - so if the PPP don't emerge as the winners then something is seriously amiss!

A Dusit poll for Bangkok's Suan Dusit Rajabhat University forecast that PPP had won a majority of 256 seats, compared to 162 for the rival Democrat Party.

An Abac poll for Assumption University showed that PPP had won 202 seats, falling short of an outright majority, with the Democrats taking 146 seats.

The Dusit poll surveyed 341,000 voters nationwide before polling stations closed at 3 p.m. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Abac's sampling error was not immediately released.

A contentious issue appears to be those million or so advance votes cast last Sunday which the PPP and other parties declared could be subject to fraudaulent counting.

Edited December 23, 2007 by bulmercke

[LaoPo]

Good news - democracy and TRT returns to power as it should be. Got to laff at the junta - mind you they still have power and its yet to be seen what they will do next since this didnt go as they planned.

My thoughts too.

The junta will find a way...or won't they ?

LaoPo

[cm-happy]

If PPP carries the day I'll have to remove my framed BKK post headlines announcing Taksin calls it quits and TRT disolved.

Or should i wait and see if more headlines about PPP being disolved?

[george]

Samak declares victory and is ready to be PM

People Power Party's leader Samak Sundaravej said coup is dead.

BANGKOK: -- Samak declared victory in the national election on Sunday, saying he is now ready to be the 24 prime minister.

Speaking at a press conference, Samak told reporters for the first time after the election that he would like to invite all political parties to join the government.

Samak said the vote counting that have continued at the press time showed that his party could gain altogether about 220-230 MPs, which is almost half of the total MPs.

"I am confident that I will become the next prime minster, because my party has nearly half of House seats now. Thaksin has called me to say congratulations to the new prime minister," Samak told the press conference.

Coup is dead, says Thailand's likely premier

Samak said the people's support for his party had sent a strong message to the military which staged a coup 15 months ago.

"The coup is dead," Samak said.

He also gave an interview to foreign reporters in English. He said the victory of his party is the victory of the Thai people.

Samak said since his party had a clear lead it would like to invite other parties to join its coalition.

"From now on, I'll form a coaliton government," Samak told the press conference.

-- The Nation 2007-12-23

[steffi]

If the PPP wins the election watch how quickly the many charges against Thaksin and his kin simply disappear. Me thinks their tax bill just go a lot smaller. As far as I'm concerned no family should be above the law and Thaksin acted as though his was.

[onethailand]

Abhisit certainly has not declared victory - he announced that the Democrats are humbled to have won the most seats in their history, but now Samak will try to form a coalition and Abhisit said that he would not hold discussions with the other parties as he felt this was not appropriate - he said that the other party leaders should make their own decision as to what is best for the people of Thailand, but the Democrats have already rejected Samak's invitation to join the government.

He also said that the Democrats will give 100% back to the people, no matter what role they play - "not one vote shall be wasted" was essentially what he said in Thai.

He then answered the English-language reporters in fluent, polite English, giving exactly the same answers as he did in Thai.

Now, it's just wait and see - the final tally hopefully will be available by midnight and then things should be much clearer. But if the PPP manage to recruit either Chart Thai or Puea Pandin to join them, it will most likely be enough to make Samak the next prime minister, even after all red cards and yellow cards are issued, unless things suddenly swing towards the Democrats over the next couple of hours, and this is highly unlikely.

[SpacemanSpliff]

Maybe nobody noticed it and let me repeat my question: And WHAT exactly does that mean ?

It means Prem interfering in politics.. ...though.. to me this seems like all in day's work, honestly.. Of course he's leaning on the smaller parties to join his preferred party..

Anyway I also don't know why this is significant in any way.. what does PPP expect.. The thing is, a very weak coalition government under the Abhisit would last, what, 6 months? And the PPP would just get stronger in the mean time.

The factions near the ruling elite should realize that they can't have their cake and eat it.. Thailand cannot have the government they want AND still be seen as somewhat of a democracy.

They have a choice to make; they speak in favour of unity, yet by stubbornly advocating weak coalition of "Everyone EXCEPT the rural poor" they're actually ADDING to the polarization.

They have a choice to make: Let go, or become a full dictatorship.

Edited December 23, 2007 by SpacemanSpliff

[bulmercke]

BREAKING NEWS

NEWS24 - Thailand -

A PPP spokesaman has just announced on Thai television that the Chart Thai and Peua Paendin leaders are currently meeting with Prem Tinsulonda at his Tavees residence.

He expressed concern about this other 'process' which is on-going with the election count.

Scheduled PPP press conference delayed.

And WHAT exactly does that mean ?

Please explain.

LaoPo

Maybe nobody noticed it and let me repeat my question:

And WHAT exactly does that mean ? see above in bold

Anybody ?

LaoPo

He's basically told them that under no circumstances are they going to even consider a coalition with the PPP. Simple.

A coalition with the Democrats - no problem.

[MrSquigle]

you dont think they already have some video footage evidence of the ppp vote buying and other dubious shit that they will immediately make use of to have them banned.

You dont really think they have gone through all of this to not let their own team in to bat for them and be humiliated by letting the nominee and his team back ??

Wake up you lot.

[bulmercke]

Prem has just issued a statement which says that he never met with the Chart Thai and Peua Paendin leaders this evening.

Oh boy! Is this getting interesting?

[chownah]

My wife reports that in our village in Chiangrai province PPP did not hand out money but two other political parties did.

She also reports that in the last election (the one that was anulled) TRT did not give out any money but some of the other parties did.

Chownah

[SpacemanSpliff]

you dont think they already have some video footage evidence of the ppp vote buying and other dubious shit that they will immediately make use of to have them banned.You dont really think they have gone through all of this to not let their own team in to bat for them and be humiliated by letting the nominee and his team back ??

That wouldn't get around the fact that in spite of any minor irregularities, there actually IS a straight democratic majority for PPP.

Banning PPP after the elections would again look like military interference with yet another clear democratic result.

Again, they speak of unity, but going along any path that meddles in the outcome of the elections will ultimately lead to violence, similar to what happened in Black May 1992.

[onethailand]

My wife reports that in our village in Chiangrai province PPP did not hand out money but two other political parties did.

She also reports that in the last election (the one that was anulled) TRT did not give out any money but some of the other parties did.

Chownah

TRT, or PPP, would never need to give out money in the North. So undoubtedly she is correct - the North is Thaksin's stronghold.

[SpacemanSpliff]

Also.. "losing face" in Thailand indeed works the way we all think it works, the Black May option actually seems the more likely one.

L'histoire se répète

Edited December 23, 2007 by SpacemanSpliff

[THAILIBAN]

Exit poll results show PPP wins

Suan Dusit Rajabhat University Exit Poll, As of 3 pm, 23 December 2007

How many constituency-based MPs and party-list MPs each party get

1. People Power Party, 221 + 35 = 256

2. Democrat Party, 127 + 35 = 162

3. Chart Thai Party, 24 + 5 = 29

4. Ruamjai Thai Chart Pattana, 14 + 1 = 15

5. Peua Paendin, 8 + 2 = 10

6. Pracharaj Party, 3 + 1 = 4

7. Matchima Thipataya Party, 3 + 1 = 4

--The Nation 2007-12-23

APOCALYPSE NOW....... but we have should known it before..... how sick is this country and its people..... ??? they didnt learn from US

[chanman]

My wife reports that in our village in Chiangrai province PPP did not hand out money but two other political parties did.

She also reports that in the last election (the one that was anulled) TRT did not give out any money but some of the other parties did.

Chownah

[madi]

Samak declares victory, announces coalition formation

People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej declared victor and announced that he would contest to form a coalition.

He said the People Power has only some seats short of simple majority so it would like to invite other parties to join its coalition.

The Nation

[Tatler]

My wife reports that in our village in Chiangrai province PPP did not hand out money but two other political parties did.

She also reports that in the last election (the one that was anulled) TRT did not give out any money but some of the other parties did.

Chownah

Wake up!! it happens everywhere, where i live in Southern Thailand i know over 100 people that were offered and took 500baht as a thank you!! no BS here, only the truth!!

Another coup is coming and i think this time there will be some blood split!!

[MrSquigle]

Exactly, why waste it there when it is needed amongst the non thinkers to the east.

Straight democratic elect my aarse. I would rather see the democrats in whatever way it takes, whatever form rather than that slimy lookin weasel Samak, if he becomes PM, then this country deserves everything that it gets. Just look at the dweeb and what he says and imagine him representing this country overseas.

Joke.

[mel2surf]

Not my country but: Seems a sad end to a beautiful day in LOS IMHO.

[Abrak]

There is an url that shows the latest vote tally.

Does anyone know it?

[Dupont]

There is an url that shows the latest vote tally.

Does anyone know it?

http://203.150.244.10/reports/eng/index.php?showall=1&

[rafval]

seems to me that if the military hadnt been so busy rushing to set things up so they can maintain some control they may have remembered to adjust the electorate boundaries to make it them fairer, it would have worked to their advantage and they wouldnt have the problem they have now, but I guess that would have taken some forward thinking unlike jumping on a tank after a few whiskies

[MrSquigle]

my wife voted for 'Yudi Misuk Party'....where is her vote ??

[jbowman1993]

My wife just told me to stop worrying about stuff that I have no control over, and go to bed. Sounds like good advice for me. Spacemanstiff is predicting blood in the streets. I predict Spacemanstiff is overreacting, to put it mildly .

Aphisit is the next PM. You don't seem to believe me, but Ill have plenty of "I told you so's" to pass out when it comes to pass.

Night al

[SpacemanSpliff]

the non thinkers to the east.

It's exactly this attitude that can lead to tragedy.

To disrespect the rural masses is to disrespect democracy.

When respect is lost, the shooting can begin, and I wish I was kidding.

Straight democratic elect my aarse. I would rather see the democrats in whatever way it takes,

Democrats ueber alles.. .. Though it stops being democratic at that point. Anyway, if you say you prefer a dictatorship over democracy then that's an opinion, and a valid one. And looking around this forum, you're not even the only one.

whatever form rather than that slimy lookin weasel Samak, if he becomes PM, then this country deserves everything that it gets. Just look at the dweeb and what he says and imagine him representing this country overseas.

Yeah, but on the bright side, it'd just be an interim stint until the people get the guy back they really want.

[bulmercke]

Everything is extremely uncertain at this moment. Samak's press conference more than indicated that there are other 'larger players' making their moves now in the event of a PPP victory.

If the PPP are denied the right to form the next government - by whatever means - expect the insurrection and protests to kick off somewhere outside of Bangkok - and then Bangkok quite soon after that - then the declaration of a state of national emergency will follow shortly.

[SpacemanSpliff]

seems to me that if the military hadnt been so busy rushing to set things up so they can maintain some control they may have remembered to adjust the electorate boundaries to make it them fairer, it would have worked to their advantage and they wouldnt have the problem they have now, but I guess that would have taken some forward thinking unlike jumping on a tank after a few whiskies

To make them 'fairer'... LOL. Anyway, some of that was actually done.

BUT personally I think that buy tweaking boundaries here and there the best you can hope to gain is a handful of 'boundary' seats.. Especially looking at the political map of Thailand: The Democrats don't have a leg to stand on outside of the South and urban centers (Bangkok especially).. How would you change boundaries to turn that around? You just can't. When the popular vote is overwhelmingly towards one party then you don't turn that around by fiddling in the margins.