Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[Boksida]

The soldiers in the US Armed Forces don't try coups because they know they would be shot or hanged if they tried. It's a different game here in Thailand. Often, soldiers who attempt coups become PM.

General Chalard Hiranyasiri would probably disagree with you on this. He was executed after leading an unsuccessful coup in 1977.

[ando]

Personally, I think its remarkable that the PPP, (which rose out of the ashes of the disbanded TRT), was able to scrape together as many votes as it did under the circumstances.

Had there been a level playing field its perfectly clear that there would have been an overwhelming victory for the PPP.

The PPP did win an overwhelming victory in the northeast (winning 101 of the possible 132 constituency seats). As Plus has argued, while martial law was in place it wasn't enforced. In fact, had it been enforced it may well have ended up aiding the PPP anyway. Let's face it. The northeast was already a PPP stronghold. Enforcing martial law would have only hindered other parties trying to break into the PPP's power base. Perhaps the junta finally came to this understanding as they certainly didn't wield their military might during the election, which they did wield (unsuccessfully) during the national referendum.

I agree.

The imposition of martial law over provinces inclined to vote not to the juntas liking was an intimidatory political tactic designed to prevent overt protests against the junta itself. What effect it had on the voting outcome is debatable, but I would venture to say that most people don't like being held under martial law for political reasons.

[ando]

The soldiers in the US Armed Forces don't try coups because they know they would be shot or hanged if they tried. It's a different game here in Thailand. Often, soldiers who attempt coups become PM.

General Chalard Hiranyasiri would probably disagree with you on this. He was executed after leading an unsuccessful coup in 1977.

Execution is the normal penalty for treason unless you still have the capacity to roll the tanks again.

[ando]

One question to all those that think the junta controlled this past election. Why did the EC allow the counting of votes to take place at the poll? This was against all advice given by Thai and international election advisers. In essence, this gave those buying votes the power to know whether registered voters at each poll were voting as had been instructed. To me, this is one of the enigmas if this past election.

Perhaps part of a strategy to gain evidence of vote buying in specific electorates ?

[Old Man River]

One question to all those that think the junta controlled this past election. Why did the EC allow the counting of votes to take place at the poll? This was against all advice given by Thai and international election advisers. In essence, this gave those buying votes the power to know whether registered voters at each poll were voting as had been instructed. To me, this is one of the enigmas if this past election.

Perhaps part of a strategy to gain evidence of vote buying in specific electorates ?

That, my friend, is the only conclusion I can see as well. If it was a set up to entrap the PPP (and vote buying was rampant), then the EC should be ready to issue multiple red cards against the PPP. Rumors are that is the case, but it hasn't happened yet and so we wait to see.

[Old Man River]

This is an interesting article about whether the PPP has a mandate of the people or not:

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?opti...5&Itemid=35

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

Supreme Court to rule whether PPP a nominee

The Supreme Court has scheduled next week to rule on whether three election related cases merit the judicial review.

In the first case, the high court will hand down the ruling on January 15 in the litigation raised by Democrat candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong.

Chaiwat contends four legal issues - whether the People Power Party is qualified for the race as a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, whether People Power leader Samak Sundaravej is a proxy in the race, whether the advance voting is valid and whether the distribution of video CDs featuring former prime minister Thaksin Shinwatra is illegal.

Full article here:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30061051

Edited January 3, 2008 by ChiangMaiAmerican

[sriracha john]

This is an interesting article about whether the PPP has a mandate of the people or not:

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?opti...5&Itemid=35

Thaksin Was Rejected by the Thai Majority

Thaksin Shinawatra’s proxy party does not have the mandate it claims

Forget the political posturing of People Power Party spokesmen from Thaksin Shinawatra’s former Thai Rak Thai Party; ignore the false impressions created by simplistic analysis of the number of seats won by the PPP in the December 23 General Election – many by an exceedingly narrow margin.

After more than a year of political upheaval in Thailand, the pro-Thaksin party is spending this week negotiating with smaller parties to obtain enough seats to form a coalition government. Nevertheless, the facts are that more Thais cast their party-list ballots (a decisive factor in who should form the next government) for the rival Democrat Party, and significantly more cast their constituency ballots against the PPP.

These facts question the legitimacy of PPP Leader Samak Sundaravej’s assertion that he has an overwhelming mandate to form the next government. They also provide insight into a post-election poll by Ramkhamhaeng University that showed that 52 percent would prefer Democrat Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the next Prime Minister, followed by Samak with only 39 percent.

The Election Commission will announce official results tomorrow, but unofficial results have the Democrats receiving 39.64 percent (14,084,265) of party-list votes; a striking reversal of fortunes compared to the 7.6 million it won in the 2001 elections and the 7.2 million in 2005 (compared to Thai Rak Thai’s 11.6 million and 18.9 million, respectively). Granted, the PPP received only slightly less support (39.60 percent); nevertheless, voter rejection was equally true at the constituency level, where PPP candidates received only 36.62 percent of votes cast. The vast majority of the record 74.45 percent turn-out of voters gave an overwhelming 63 percent of their support to representatives parties other than the Thaksin-backed PPP.

This trend was true in every region of the country. Even in the alleged PPP strongholds of the north and northeast, it only managed to garner 44 percent and 46 percent, respectively. While it did gain 40 percent of the constituency votes in Bangkok, elsewhere its results were dismal – only one-third in the central plains and, as expected, only 11 percent in the Democrat south.

On a provincial basis, the PPP did of course win a majority of the constituency votes in several north and the northeastern provinces, but even in Thaksin’s home province of Chiang Mai, PPP candidates were only able to secure 47 percent of the votes.

If the majority of voters rejected the PPP, how was it able to garner nearly half of the 480 seats? Thaksin built his Thai Rak Thai juggernaut through the merger and acquisition of numerous small parties that flourished in Thai politics prior to 2001, particularly in the north and northeast. However, the 1997 constitutional reforms to promote consolidation of just a few large parties was reversed by the 2007 constitution to prevent the reemergence of a parliamentary dictatorship by a party too large to be held accountable by a vigorous but negligible opposition. Many of the leaders of these former parties who felt betrayed by Thaksin fled the PPP and attempted to reinvent themselves for the 2007 elections. But as in the pre-2001 period, they were contending against each other and in many constituencies the anti-PPP votes were split three and often five ways thus allowing a PPP victory.

In constituencies outside the former confines of these regional parties, the battle was often between the PPP and Democrats, and in some provinces, Banharn Silpa-archa’s Chat Thai party. In these contests, invariably either the Democrats or Chat Thai won; although in several important races, particularly in Bangkok, Chat Thai served as a spoiler, drawing just enough votes away from the Democrats for a narrow PPP win.

Over the coming days, as Samak struggles to pull the minor regional parties back into the PPP fold to create a government, he will have to remember that regional party leaders, betrayed once by Thaksin, may think twice and join with the Democrats. While Thaksin weighs his options for a return to Thailand, as he said from Hong Kong, Samak and the PPP must remember that the significant majority of voters, rejected the PPP and, by extension, its backers ‑ Thaksin and the old Thai Rak Thai. Therefore he does not have a citizen mandate for his campaign pledge to assist Thaksin to escape justice.

[sriracha john]

Supreme Court to rule whether PPP a nominee The Supreme Court has scheduled next week to rule on whether three election related cases merit the judicial review.

In the first case, the high court will hand down the ruling on January 15 in the litigation raised by Democrat candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong.

Chaiwat contends four legal issues - whether the People Power Party is qualified for the race as a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, whether People Power leader Samak Sundaravej is a proxy in the race, whether the advance voting is valid and whether the distribution of video CDs featuring former prime minister Thaksin Shinwatra is illegal.

Full article here:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30061051

Supreme Court to rule whether PPP a nominee

The Supreme Court has scheduled next week to rule on whether three election related cases merit the judicial review.

In the first case, the high court will hand down the ruling on January 15 in the litigation raised by Democrat candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong.

The upcoming judicial opinion has attracted attention because it could lead to the cancellation of the election victory if the People Power Party is found to be a political nominee to contest the December 23 election.

Chaiwat contends four legal issues - whether the People Power Party is qualified for the race as a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, whether People Power leader Samak Sundaravej is a proxy in the race, whether the advance voting is valid and whether the distribution of video CDs featuring former prime minister Thaksin Shinwatra is illegal.

Presiding judge Chalee Thappawimol issued a summons for the People Power to submit defence evidence within seven days to rebut charges of being nominee.

- The Nation

[meemiathai]

I am sure very few thais like thaksin. Perhaps probably a hundren or so? I am sure it is just coincidence that every single thai I have met in HK happened to be fond of thaksin. How strange! Why have I not won the lottery yet?

Oh wait! I remember there was one who wasn't. The one official who tried to persuade my wife to vote for someone else and then started to be rude when my wife ignored her, here in HK. Why did she not give my wife 200baht?

[soundman]

Supreme Court to rule whether PPP a nominee The Supreme Court has scheduled next week to rule on whether three election related cases merit the judicial review.

In the first case, the high court will hand down the ruling on January 15 in the litigation raised by Democrat candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong.

Chaiwat contends four legal issues - whether the People Power Party is qualified for the race as a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, whether People Power leader Samak Sundaravej is a proxy in the race, whether the advance voting is valid and whether the distribution of video CDs featuring former prime minister Thaksin Shinwatra is illegal.

Full article here:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30061051

Supreme Court to rule whether PPP a nominee

The Supreme Court has scheduled next week to rule on whether three election related cases merit the judicial review.

In the first case, the high court will hand down the ruling on January 15 in the litigation raised by Democrat candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong.

The upcoming judicial opinion has attracted attention because it could lead to the cancellation of the election victory if the People Power Party is found to be a political nominee to contest the December 23 election.

Chaiwat contends four legal issues - whether the People Power Party is qualified for the race as a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, whether People Power leader Samak Sundaravej is a proxy in the race, whether the advance voting is valid and whether the distribution of video CDs featuring former prime minister Thaksin Shinwatra is illegal.

Presiding judge Chalee Thappawimol issued a summons for the People Power to submit defence evidence within seven days to rebut charges of being nominee.

- The Nation

And the "ace of spades" is being brought into play.

What was that Samak quote? Hang on..... Just a second.....

"what is wrong with the word nominee?" - from a camerata thread....

Hope it bites both him & ex chairman T on the proverbial behind.

[chownah]

Should we consider how long the Democrats would be able to keep a coalition gov't going? In spite of all the obstacles the military dictatorship put on the organisers of the PPP they equaled the Democrats in popular vote and surpassed them in MP's. While many think that this popularity is created by passing out chump change at balloting time...what if they are wrong and there really is some loyalty to these people and the expat ex PM they like...some loyalty that goes beyond the vote buying..........then what. It seems inevitable that with time the PPP will gather their support and will prevail in an election....seems like the only way to stop this would be to continue the policy of prosecuting the PPP for election violations while casting a blind eye to those committed by the Democrats and others. My wife reported that in our village the PPP did not hand out money but two of the other parties did...I'm anxiously awaiting to see if they get prosecuted or not.....probably not.

Anyway....is unequal application of election laws a good way to run a democracy?

Chownah

[sriracha john]

Supreme Court to rule whether PPP a nominee

The Supreme Court has scheduled next week to rule on whether three election related cases merit the judicial review.

In the first case, the high court will hand down the ruling on January 15 in the litigation raised by Democrat candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong.

The upcoming judicial opinion has attracted attention because it could lead to the cancellation of the election victory if the People Power Party is found to be a political nominee to contest the December 23 election.

Chaiwat contends four legal issues - whether the People Power Party is qualified for the race as a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, whether People Power leader Samak Sundaravej is a proxy in the race, whether the advance voting is valid and whether the distribution of video CDs featuring former prime minister Thaksin Shinwatra is illegal.

Presiding judge Chalee Thappawimol issued a summons for the People Power to submit defence evidence within seven days to rebut charges of being nominee.

- The Nation

Is the PPP a nominee? Is Samak a proxy of Thaksin?

They were since their very beginning in August... and despite warnings and forecasts of trouble, they persisted in these proclamations....

Veteran takes helm of People Power; key TRT figures also get party posts

Political veteran Samak Sundaravej yesterday said he did not mind being considered a nominee of Thaksin Shinawatra and vowed to restore the standing of the deposed prime minister after being elected leader of the People Power Party yesterday.

"I recognise the word 'nominee' positively because nominees have brought economic progress and prosperity to this country," Samak said.

"[in this case] I will be a nominee of Thaksin. I will make this party strong to restore the democracy of the country," he said.

Samak was elected by 80 votes to 33 at the assembly of the People Power Party, which recently admitted nearly 300 former MPs from Thaksin's now disbanded Thai Rak Thai party.

Samak said he wanted to help the People Power Party to win the election and lead the country's return to democracy.

"The party now has a new leader - me, Samak Sundaravej," he declared. "Now the party will campaign for the election under the law, the Election Commission can look into all of our actions and the people will judge us."

Former leading members of Thai Rak Thai who attended the party assembly at Centara Grand Hotel at CentralWorld included Surapong Suebwonglee, Newin Chidchob and Sora-at Klinprathoom.

The meeting was also attended by Thaksin's mother-in-law, Pojanee na Pomphet, and Noppadon Pattama, his legal adviser.

Surapong was elected party secretary-general and Noppadon his deputy.

Yongyuth Tiyapairat, who had kept a low profile since the coup on September 19 last year, caused a surprise when he was picked to be a deputy party leader.

The People Power Party plans to move headquarters from Don Mueang to the IFCT building, where the Thai Rak Thai had its offices. It is also adopting a new logo that is similar to Thai Rak Thai's logo.

People Power executive Suthin Klangsaeng said Samak gave party members "more spirit" because he was an outspoken character who dared to tell the truth when others might not. "It is an advantage for the party to have a person like Samak," he said.

Suthin admitted that some of the party executives elected yesterday were chosen by Thaksin. Former top Thai Rak Thai members sent a list of executives to Thaksin before the party assembly, he said.

"Yongyuth and Noppadon were approved by the former prime minister," he said.

Noppadon said he would help to draw up the party's policies for the election campaign. He also denied Samak was Thaksin's nominee.

Speaking after Samak's announcement, Democrat Party deputy leader Jurin Laksanavisit said democracy would return through the election and warned People Power not to do not anything to cause another collapse of democracy .

Democrat executive Sathit Wongnongtoei said that having Samak as the head of People Power wouldn't help resolve the political turmoil but, on the contrary, would create more political conflict.

"It's clear that he is Thaksin's nominee. He said he was ready to counterattack those that attacked Thaksin first. His reaction means that he turned to politics for revenge on Thaksin's opponents, who are the government and the Council National for Security," he said.

Trakul Meechai, political lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, said Thaksin can now control the PPP because his core Thai Rak Thai members are now executives in the party.

With the support enjoyed by former Thai Rak Thai members of parliament, Samak has high chances of becoming the next prime minister :D , Trakul said. If not, the PPP would make a strong opposition party.

- The Nation

People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej said he accepted the PPP leadership because he wanted to help out former Thai Rak Thai MPs who were not convicted in the electoral fraud case.

Commenting on an allegation that he was Thaksin's political nominee, he said he saw no negative connotation in the term, and that it had no legal implications in civil, criminal or electoral laws.

"If my critics want to block my political career, they should push for just one provision and that is to ban Samak," he said. Samak also said his party had no objection to the general election being scheduled on December 23.

- The Nation

Samak: No worries being Thaksin nominee

People's Power party governor Samak Sundaravej said Friday he is not worried he will get in trouble for acting as a nominee for ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra. His remark came after Election Commission member Sodsri Satayathum said Samak's stance on the nominee issue could land him in legal trouble. "If later he commits offences and people complain, we can investigate," she said. Samak also challenged those in power, saying they can write a law to hinder him and his party from politics. He insisted the People's Power party does not receive funding from Thaksin even though it has been reported that members of the People’s Power party are

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=121257

Being a proxy has consequences....

Samak urged to tone it down

Dissension in the ranks of People's Power

People's Power Party boss Samak Sundaravej has fired his first salvo at the Assets Scrutiny Committee (ASC), but insiders warn it's his own party that could suffer the casualties. Samak was grandstanding once again when he vowed to exonerate the 111 former TRT executive members who were banned for five years and abolish the ASC if he became PM after the general election. Samak also said shortly after taking the PPP's helm that he did not mind working as the nominee of ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra. He was showered with praise by his own supporters for taking such a clear stand to undo "injustices" but within the PPP, core leaders are feeling the pinch as a result of Samak's remarks. They reckon his closed-fist approach will only chisel away at the party's competitiveness. Leading PPP figures recently met party secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee and Yaowapa Wongsawat, a younger sister of the former PM, for a talk about the party's policy platform. They disagreed with Samak's intention to absolve the former TRT leadership and felt his hostile attitude towards the ASC, which is investigating corruption scandals involving Thaksin and some of his former cabinet members, could blow up in the party's face.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/13Sep2007_news99.php

Samak's loose talk could sink PPP

The PM candidate could be dooming his party and democracy's recovery by proclaiming himself a TRT proxy

Samak Sundaravej needs to calm down - a lot. His ascendancy to the helm of the People Power Party (PPP) is controversial enough, but what really is affecting the already rough road back to democracy is what he has been doing since. At recent election rallies in the Northeast, he has openly announced that the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra had now transformed into the PPP. While that is undeniably true, it was not necessarily the right thing to say.

We have called on the interim leadership, as well as the junta, to be fair to the PPP and Samak. They must be treated as ordinary Thai citizens with full political rights. Anyone outside the legal dragnet that caught Thaksin and many of his business and political associates must be accorded every right given to other politicians and political parties and there must not be harassment or intimidation. Having said that, the country also needs Samak's help as well. We need him to avoid creating conditions that could play into the hands of those who may want to delay the return to democracy. We want him to stop making the provocative proclamation that he is just a Thaksin nominee.

This claim could land the new party in legal trouble and thus prolong the country's political mess. The Constitution Tribunal found Thai Rak Thai guilty of electoral fraud. While the evidence of the party's guilt was damning, the punishment and the judicial process were controversial to say the least. But if Samak wants to rebuild Thai Rak Thai, he must do it in a smarter way, even if it requires a semblance of "dissociating" himself and PPP from Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin.

There have already been efforts to challenge the PPP's legitimacy following Samak's election campaign claims. The party's enemies argue it is illegitimate because it has confirmed that it is Thai Rak Thai in a new form. Since Thai Rak Thai was condemned by the Constitution Tribunal as a threat to democracy, Samak's claims must have given his opponents formidable ammunition. While everyone in the PPP is innocent because nobody in the new party has been charged in connection with Thaksin's alleged corruption or Thai Rak Thai's electoral fraud, Samak has unwittingly courted major trouble for the party he's supposed to lead.

It is not a bad strategy on Samak's part to play the role of political victim, although for most of his political life Samak has rarely been on the receiving end of political persecution. Yet he needs to take into account the country's best interests as well. Lowering his guard in a bid to seek the public's sympathy could result in negative consequences beyond his control. If the PPP were suspended or dissolved, it would not bode well for Thailand's rocky rehabilitation.

Samak has overlooked the simplest approach in his election campaign. He could tell voters that the PPP is a new "people's party", and it holds the public's interest above all. Saying that he will try his best to have the charges against Thaksin nullified cannot generate that kind of perception. But that is the least of his problems. Such statements can come back to the new party. And if the military falls for the bait, not only will Samak and PPP suffer, but the whole nation will also.

Thailand has been criticised by the international community for letting one man overshadow its political course. The coup was said to have been a misguided step in dealing with just one poor element of a fledgling democracy. Legal and constitutional reforms taken in the aftermath of the coup were said to have been designed just to prevent Thaksin's return to power. Samak, ironically, has underlined the criticism. He is trying to turn what is supposed to be a fight to regain democracy into a fight to bring the controversial leader back by whitewashing his past.

Although Thaksin was a democratically elected leader, there's a clear line between his name and "democracy". While Samak's political ideology is no secret to anyone - his past oppressive role and close association with right-wing military-backed rulers remain an outstanding part of modern political history - it won't hurt Samak's fresh political aspirations to forget being himself just once. Thailand can live with Samak pretending to be a champion of democracy for once, provided he does it the right way.

- The Nation Editorial

Buy one, get one free!

This old familiar marketing slogan has been adopted as the Palang Prachachon party's [People Power Party] latest campaign slogan, with a minor adjustment. "Choose Samak [sundaravej, the party leader], Get Thaksin [free of course]." The PPP's new campaign slogan, "Choose Samak, Get Thaksin", reinforces Samak's earlier admission that he is merely a nominee of the former PM. It also contradicts the repeated statements by Thaksin that he has washed his hands of politics. But whether the new slogan will catch on with the electorate the way "buy one, get one free" has with most shoppers remains to be seen. For many shoppers, the marketing slogan has proven to be deceptive on countless occasions. Whatever, a short and easily understandable slogan will get the message across to an audience more effectively than a policy statement. Take for instance, the lengthy political platform of the Matchima Thippatai party which covered full pages in several local newspapers. How many readers bothered to read it? Perhaps it is time Matchima Thippatai coined campaign slogans rather than wasting money on full-page ads.

Commentary by Veera Prateepchaikul (Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Post Publishing Co Ltd.) continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/15Oct2007_news15.php

[Ricardo]

I am sure very few thais like thaksin. Perhaps probably a hundren or so? I am sure it is just coincidence that every single thai I have met in HK happened to be fond of thaksin. How strange! Why have I not won the lottery yet?

I can't agree with you. Enough Thais voted Samak/PPP/TRT/Thaksin to give them an equal share of the party-list vote, and a slight majority on the candidate-vote, and to make them the largest single party in the new parliament, with first chance to form a coalition-government.

Although this is very far from an absolute majority, or a landslide victory, or an overwhelming mandate to rule the country, as some would have us believe.

Oh wait! I remember there was one who wasn't. The one official who tried to persuade my wife to vote for someone else and then started to be rude when my wife ignored her, here in HK. Why did she not give my wife 200baht?

Because your local currency is the Hong Kong Dollar, not the Thai Baht, perhaps ?

Jesting aside, I regard the increased overseas-vote and away-from-home vote, however they may have been cast, as being welcome signs of increasing political-awareness amongst those Thais who have a wider view of the world, having seen more than those who remain closer to their roots. I hope this trend will continue in future.

[Plus]

Mmm. Then, following your logic, (or lack of), it could be concluded that the 6 million voters who previously voted in support of Thaksin and TRT switched sides this time and voted for the Democrats in support of the junta?

More or less so.

18 million people voted for Thaksin in 2005, after the coup that number shrank to 14 million.

Democrats had 7.2 million in 2005, after the coup they got 14 million.

The elections weren't a referendum on the coup (though other posters tend to see them that way), but the coup certainly had an impact. Younghusband thinks I underestimate it, but it seems that it's anti junta, die hard democrat Ando is the one who doesn't want to acknowledge any impact at all.

When the military overthrew Thaksin's government they hoped they'd expose Thaksin's corruption and people would never vote for him again. It worked only to a degree. Millions of people voted for him no matter what, but there are also millions who changed their minds and voted for someone else (and many of them chose Democrats).

Not enough to form the government, true, but enough to send a clear message to Thaksin - the game is over.

If PPP can stand on its own feet without being Thaksin's nominee - all the best to them. I tend to think that without Thaksin they will have hard time distinguishing themselves from any other political party promising exactly the same things to exactly the same voter groups.

And when it comes to the real life decisions, make no mistake - PPP will always favour big businesses and big money, not the grass roots and farmers. No different from any other political party either.

[pete_r]

This is an interesting article about whether the PPP has a mandate of the people or not:

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?opti...5&Itemid=35

Thaksin Was Rejected by the Thai Majority

(...)

The Election Commission will announce official results tomorrow, but unofficial results have the Democrats receiving 39.64 percent (14,084,265) of party-list votes; a striking reversal of fortunes compared to the 7.6 million it won in the 2001 elections and the 7.2 million in 2005 (compared to Thai Rak Thai’s 11.6 million and 18.9 million, respectively). Granted, the PPP received only slightly less support (39.60 percent); nevertheless, voter rejection was equally true at the constituency level, where PPP candidates received only 36.62 percent of votes cast. The vast majority of the record 74.45 percent turn-out of voters gave an overwhelming 63 percent of their support to representatives parties other than the Thaksin-backed PPP.

(...)

Is the author of the article trying to say that because the PPP received less than 50% of the votes, they are not legitimate? That is true for all the parties in these elections, so does he mean that none of them should form the government?

The comments under the article bring some perspective... http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?opti...5&Itemid=35

[Plus]

I don't see PPP as illegitimate (leaving nominee issue for a moment).

What the author says is that pro-anti Thaksin vote was 40-60, so it's not a win.

Even if PPP manages to scrap together a coalition with 70-30 proportion in the parlament, it won't reflect people's choice and the consequences of that are unpredictable.

First the MPs could always rebel and vote against pro-Thaksin issues, second the voters might rebel and never ever vote for those small parties again.

Then there's alway the civil society and bureaucracy who might simply refuse to play along citing lack of public support for pro-Thaksin actions.

I think PPP won't be able to reinstate 111 banned execs, won't be able to dissolve AEC, won't be able to lean on Attorney General's office or the courts. If they get caught meddling in those agencies affairs, they can't count on their coalition numbers or public opinion.

As for comments unde that article, they seem to be rather rude and lack any substance. Calling the author an idiot and questioning his numbers without providing any alternative are not valid arguments.

[thaigene2]

Man alive, some of you are really trying hard to ignore the electoral system of Thailand the right of the biggest party to form a Government aren't you?

If you think they suck so much, then why not let them form the government and fall on their face? Why are you so worried?

It's called democracy - have you heard of it before?

[Jingthing]

Yes, let PPP mess it up as we know they will.

It is going to be superb entertainment value to watch them try to finesse the Thaksin reentry and how they will try to let him off without serious consequences for his probable crimes.

One thing is for certain, this isn't over.

Edited January 3, 2008 by Jingthing

[Tony Clifton]

Thaksin-Samaksin

[Plus]

Man alive, some of you are really trying hard to ignore the electoral system of Thailand the right of the biggest party to form a Government aren't you?

Who said anything against PPP's right to form a government?

But if it's democratic system you worry about, then the government is created by the biggest coalition, not by the biggest party. Theoretically speaking Democrats have as much right to form a governing coalition as PPP, and all those parties from Chat Thai down are not obliged to enter into coalition with PPP either. Traditionally alliances are formed around common political platforms, in Thailand ideology doesn't matter, but Thaksin did polarise the country and they should be very careful crossing from one camp to another.

Let them have a go at it, but since ideologically they are on different sides of the big pro-anti Thaksin divide, if they get together something needs to be sacrificed - either ideology or voter support. My guess is that it's PPP that will have to make big concessions, maybe even Prime Ministerial post, some of their execs have already dropped amnesty and AEC dissolution from the agenda.

I won't even rule out possibility of an open revolt on parlament floor if some MPs don't agree with PPP alliance forced on them by their leaders, though I don't put as much faith in Thai politicians.

[sriracha john]

This might change things a bit...

Thailand Election Commission investigates 83 poll victors on suspicion of fraud

BANGKOK, Thailand: Thailand's Election Commission said Thursday it is investigating 83 victors from Dec. 23 parliamentary elections accused of vote buying and other irregularities, a move that could diminish the seat tally of allies of ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra.

Of the 83 winners under investigation, 65 were members of the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party, the commission's Secretary-General Suthiphon Thaveechaiyagarn told reporters. Most of the cases deal with alleged vote buying, he said.

The PPP came out on top in the country's first election since Thaksin was ousted by a coup in September 2006, winning 233 seats in parliament's 480-seat lower house. The anti-Thaksin Democrat Party won 165 seats — six of which are under investigation, Suthiphon said.

PPP said Monday it had formed an alliance with three small political parties to form a coalition government with 254 seats in parliament.

The Election Commission had expected to certify the election results Thursday but got bogged down by investigations into election irregularities.

The EC chairman, Apichart Sukhakkanon, said the EC is trying to expedite the probes to meet the required certification of 95 percent — or 456 members of parliament — before the lower house convenes Jan. 22.

By Thursday, the EC had certified 397 parliamentarians, he said. The commission said last week it had disqualified three election winners from the PPP on charges of vote-buying.

- Associated Press

[sriracha john]

83 poll winners face inquiries

The Election Commission (EC) yesterday set aside 83 winners from the December 23 general election for investigations into possible electoral violations - 65 of them from the People Power Party (PPP).

The agency endorsed 397 out of the 480 poll winners, including all elected political party leaders, according to EC chairman Apichart Sukhagganond, who chaired yesterday's meeting of the five election commissioners.

Of the 83 disputed results, four involved party-list candidates from two parties, People Power and the Democrats. The four are all accused of vote buying.

People Power saw the election of three party-list candidates put on hold. The three are Yongyuth Tiyapairat for Zone 1 from the upper North, plus Chavalit Wichayasut and Thanathep Timsuwan, both for Zone 3, covering the Northeast.

Democrat Paitoon Kaewthong is under investigation in Zone 2, which covers the lower North.

In the constituency results, the EC refused to endorse 79 winners. Sixty-two of those MPs-elect are from the PPP, while six are from Puea Pandin, five from the Democrats, four from Chart Thai, and one each from Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Matchima Thipataya.

Most of the election winners who failed to get EC endorsement are from the North and Northeast. Apichart, the EC chief, said the commissioners made their decisions about the endorsement in a straightforward manner, regardless of the parties the poll winners are from.

Meanwhile, Democrat MPs-elect Thaworn Senneam and Jua Ratchasi petitioned the EC yesterday to reject endorsement for about 30 MPs-elect from People Power, who they claim distributed video CDs featuring ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra speaking in support of the pro-Thaksin party.

The petition said the EC should postpone endorsing the 30 MPs-elect even though the move would lead to a delay in the new House of Representatives being convened.

- The Nation

[sriracha john]

Adding to PPP and its Leader's woes.... his other criminal case [the first being his conviction and 2 year prison sentence for defamation]...

Samak wants witnesses to testify again

People Power Party Leader Samak Sundaravej yesterday requested to have 20 witnesses testify again in an Assets Examination Committee hearing over its indictment accusing him of unlawfully benefiting from a 6.68 Billion Baht deal to buy fire-trucks from Austria.

Phichit Chuenbarn, a lawyer for Samak, said he would like the AEC to summon all the witnesses to prevent the public thinking Samak had paid them to testify in his favour.

The lawyer said he feared witnesses who could have been useful to Samak might be excluded from the witnesses' list for the hearing next Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters, Phichit said he had complained to AEC members that Samak's indictment was hurried, but he did not say how they responded.

AEC chairman Nam Yimyaem said he would consider whether to summon any of the 20 witnesses. He said a former Austrian Ambassador to Thailand - one of the witnesses requested by Samak - could be left off the list as he had declined to testify after being summoned several times by the AEC.

Nam said the AEC would continue to probe the deal and other cases even if Samak becomes prime minister.

- The Nation

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Background information on the fire trucks:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1664079

which includes, Politicians 'took 500 million baht bribes for fire trucks deal'

===========================================================================

and also btw,

"Phichit Chuenbarn, a lawyer for Samak" is a Shinawatra family lawyer... but then, considering next week's Supreme Court decision on possible PPP dissolution, wouldn't one expect that of a proxy?

Edited January 3, 2008 by sriracha john

[CNXagent]

Looking forward to seeing the new score of winners for the election. It will be interesting how the PPP crying foul play again

Potential score reducing for PPP -ve 65 winners

[sriracha john]

and even though People Power Party seems to like speaking for its potential coalition members, it doesn't...

No final decision yet on joining PPP-led coaltion: Puea Pandin Party

BANGKOK - The Puea Pandin Party remained undecided as to whether to join a coalition government led by the People Power Party (PPP) and the party's stance on the matter will only be made clear after a 3-day period of mourning to mark the death of the late Princess Galyani Vadhana, according to the party spokesman.

Vachiramon Kunakasemthanawat said the party would suspend its political activities for at least three days before announcing its decision on joining the PPP-led coalition.

"Any comment on the Puea Pandin joining the PPP-led coalition was not the party's resolution. Only the party leader Mr. Suvit Khunkitti and other two party executives, Mr. Wattana Asavahame and Mr. Pracha Promnok--have the final say on the matter," said the party spokesman.

Mr. Vachiramon also said that he was confident that the final decision made by the trio will be accepted by all party executives and members without calling a meeting among party executives.

Meanwhile, Chart Thai Party Deputy Leader Nikorn Chamnong said also that the party will continue observing a political suspension for two more days while awaiting the results of the Election Commission's decision on the disqualification of some elected candidates.

Any candidates who are red-carded will not be allowed to contest the by-elections scheduled to be held January 13.

Samak Sundaravej, PPP leader, announced Monday the formation of a coalition government together with three smaller parties -- the Ruamjai Thai Chart Pattana, the Matchima Thipataya and the Pracharaj parties -- which would command 254 seats in the 480 seat parliament.

The PPP, aligned with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, aims to form a coalition government with 315 seats in the parliament when two parties, Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties join it later, said Samak.

- MCOT

[sriracha john]

Supreme Court considers PPP fate

If the court rules against the PPP, its plans to form a coalition government will collapse, and the party will be dissolved

Plans to set up a coalition government led by the PPP are hanging by a thread after the Supreme Court's Election Section agreed to rule on whether the PPP is a nominee of the dissolved TRT party. The court has decided to consider all four points in a petition lodged by Democrat candidate Chaiwat Sinsuwong. In the petition, he has asked the court to rule whether the PPP was qualified to field candidates in the Dec 23 general election, if its leader Samak Sundaravej was eligible to endorse party candidates, if advance votes on Dec 15-16 and the Dec 23 polls were valid and if the distribution of VCDs of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra were illegal. Mr Chaiwat said yesterday that he would be the first to take the witness stand and prove the allegations against the PPP. "I will present evidence to show that the PPP is undoubtedly a nominee of the TRT," he said. Democrat member Virat Kalayasiri said it was not hard to find proof to back up the charges against the PPP. "The TRT and the PPP also use the same office building and have the same staff. If we were not confident [that we can prove the allegations], we would not have lodged the petition," he said. If the court rules against the PPP, its plans to form a coalition government will collapse. If found guilty of the charges, the party will be dissolved.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/topstories/tops...s.php?id=124855

[ando]

Its quite obvious the establishment is intent on rolling the PPP one way or another. Making it look like a fair and legal process is the only hitch.

I cant see the PPP surviving this multi pronged attack and so I expect the Democrats, propped up by a multitude of smaller parties will take the position of government when its all over. But the general consensus among political analysts seems to be that a multi party minority government is destined to be short lived and end in conflict. That also goes for the PPP.

So, whats around the next corner? Most likely a polarized public with a weak government and a lot of political interference behind the scenes from the military. When things start to come apart again the generals will move in and seize power again under the pretense of restoring stability to the nation. In fact the junta has slipped their right to seize political power into this latest constitution as a means of maintaining political control.

However, It is my view that the military will have only one more shot at rigging a government they want as the people are becoming more aware through better education and wider media coverage (despite the militaries political media censorship), somewhere down the line, not too far away, the people will say ENOUGH! Whether it ends in bloodshed or a back down by the military is difficult to predict. My personal view is that having nothing to lose and everything to gain the military would be prepared to start shooting Thais who oppose them.

As I see it, the only real option for the military and their elite backers to install a government of their choice under a democratic system would be to disband the PPP and ban its executive as it did with the TRT. Of course criminal charges against selected PPP executives would be great propaganda value in the lead up to an election as has proved to be the case with TRT.

This party ain't over yet by a long shot. It could be another 5 years before the repercussions of today finally play out and Thailand returns to a democratically elected stable government. And the key to it is getting the military out of politics.

If I am wrong and military succeed in maintaining control over democratically elected government, then I can see this type of conflict recycling again for many more years, possibly decades.

However, there could be a particular "event" which would seriously diminish the militaries credibility in the public eye and accelerate the push towards a true democracy in Thailand. Anything could happen. There are so many variables at play at the moment. But it is my view that the military will lose their power base in politics over the next few years one way or another and that will be a very good thing for democracy in Thailand.

Meantime, they are just riding the same old merry go round .

[sriracha john]

Its quite obvious the establishment is intent on rolling the PPP one way or another. Making it look like a fair and legal process is the only hitch.

A point could just as easily be made that the PPP was he11-bent on self-destruction itself from the very beginning, given their Post #1190 quotations. What did they expect? That once complaints had been filed, that all their proclamations would just be ignored?

It even caused major rifts within the PPP with the more intelligent ones basically telling Samak, "Shut up, you stupid pig. You're going to get us dissolved." .... but yet it persisted and now... it's all coming back on them. Shouldn't be any surprise and shouldn't be difficult to see the point of the complainant.

Edited January 4, 2008 by sriracha john

[Plus]

Most likely a polarized public with a weak government and a lot of political interference behind the scenes from the military.

Military had no influence over Surayud's government, much less over any elected one.

However, It is my view that the military will have only one more shot at rigging a government they want as the people are becoming more aware through better education and wider media coverage (despite the militaries political media censorship)

It's rather "thanks to the military" rather than despite it. If not for the coup we'd still be watching Thaksin self-aggranndisment 24/7 on all TV channels.

My personal view is that having nothing to lose and everything to gain the military would be prepared to start shooting Thais who oppose them.

Not a single political analyst thinks that the military has anything to gain by staging another coup. It's bloody obvious they took a bite they couldn't chew, they realise themselves they simply lack competence to run the country.

As I see it, the only real option for the military and their elite backers to install a government of their choice under a democratic system

Except you don't see the military even trying to install the government. They sit back, like the rest of us, and watch PPP trying to form a coalition with its own archrivals.

The current charges against PPP didn't come from the military at all, and will be decided by courts that can tell any general to shut up and comply.

Thailand returns to a democratically elected stable government.

Thailand never had a stable, democratically elected government. Thaksin's appeared to be stable by completely shutting out and silencing the opposition for a few years but he couldn't keep the lid on it forever. Eventually it blew in massive street protests, parlament dissolution, public promise to resign. The appearance of stability was lost long before the coup.

The stability will come when the government, the elites (and not the military per se, btw), and the people share the common goals. Apart from Thaksin personally and a few of his ex-communist strategists, the whole country has nothing to argue about. Without Thaskin, PPP led government will be no different from Democrat led government in more aspects than you can imagine.