Interesting Article On Transfers From The Guardian

[pattayarangers]

Wayne Routledge has played five games for Tottenham Hotspur during his 2½ seasons at White Hart Lane. In 2005 Spurs fought a bitter six-month battle with Crystal Palace's chairman, Simon Jordan, who did his usual Martin Luther routine before agreeing to pay a tribunal-set fee of £1.25m that summer for the out-of-contract winger.

Weeks later Tottenham bought Aaron Lennon and ever since then Routledge, still only 23, has been an understudy to a player two years his junior. Two spells on loan at Portsmouth and Fulham, where substitute appearances comfortably outstripped starting roles and no first-team matches since August 18 is the kind of record that would have once seen him ushered discreetly out of the door for a fee that would remain undisclosed to spare Tottenham's blushes.

Instead this week we are told that Queens Park Rangers' generous bid for him has been turned down and QPR have been warned that only one in excess of £3m would tempt Juande Ramos to part with a player he clearly does not rate. Welcome to the world of soccernomics. It has taken 16 years of ludicrous fees but the Premier League has finally reached its Weimar Republic stage. Demand and desperation is so strong and supply so weak that we are left with hyperinflation where price has rocketed away from any notion of value or utility. This could be put down to Spurs trying it on with the newly flush QPR if it were an isolated case. But there are so many examples of players who joined clubs, managed three games before injury and failed to get back in the side, not to mention those who have underperformed, who are now touted about at prices that would get you laughed off eBay.

Yet the managers of middling and struggling teams panic, click the "buy it now" button at the ridiculously optimistic reserve guide price, and end up with an Al Pacino dead-eyed rictus grin if anyone dares whisper: "How much?"

Take Tal Ben Haim - he joined Chelsea on a free transfer, will be the fifth-choice centre-half after the expected signing of Branislav Ivanovic, has looked clumsy and cumbersome but would have apparently cost Sam Allardyce the best part of £8m to prove his belief that the Israeli could save Newcastle's defence and his job.

On the day he was sacked Big Sam had agreed to pay Arsenal £5.5m for Lassana Diarra, whose value has increased £3.5m in the four months since leaving Chelsea by starting five Premier League matches. And he was happy to pay the premium, if Mike Ashley had not stepped in, just as he paid Manchester United £6m for Alan Smith, an England centre-forward who has not scored a league goal since November 2005. By the time Sir Alex Ferguson had accepted the former Leeds player was not good enough for United there was a host of clubs after him. But instead of his value tanking, given his meagre achievements, Ferguson was able to hold out for £6m, only £1m less than he paid initially.

Players are not gold in the bank, however: they are perishable commodities, older and, in Smith's case, an inferior player than when he signed. But the normal laws of asset depreciation do not seem to apply.

Wigan demonstrated their largesse by reportedly doubling Titus Bramble's wages when he signed on a free transfer in July. This, let us not forget, is a player who went from being talked up as England's new Des Walker to a laughing stock of hare-brained ineptitude in five years at Newcastle. Never more so than in his partnership with Jean-Alain Boumsong, a player who was actually worth nothing when Rangers signed him in June 2004, but whose 18 games in the Scottish Premier League transformed him into an £8m stopper.

Perhaps Tottenham's chutzpah over Routledge stems from their success with Mido in August. Having had the Egyptian on loan for 18 months, they procrastinated during the summer of 2006 and then, in some haste, blew £4.5m on him two days before the August transfer window shut. He scored one goal in 12 Premier League appearances last season, but Middlesbrough still had to beat off Birmingham and Sunderland for the privilege of signing the injury-prone striker for £6m.

Daniel Levy, the Spurs chairman, seems to be following the Sam Hamman model. Never was there a more successful negotiator when selling - Carl Cort £7m, Chris Perry £4m, Ben Thatcher £5m and Oyvind Leonhardsen £4.5m are only a few examples of his happy knack of turning base players into gold. If a manager is convinced a player is key to his vision - as Glenn Hoddle was with £8m Dean Richards and £6.25m Helder Postiga - he will persuade his board to pay whatever it takes, however loopy the fee.

In the past there were consequences to be had for making bad investments. Even Ferguson was made to look foolish when paying more than £4m for Massimo Taibi. After four farcical performances, United took the hit and shipped him out. If they got a bagful of magic beans from Reggina for his services they would have been thrilled. Now, though, clubs sanction the sort of financial speculation that might make even the directors of Northern Rock wince. But they also know, ultimately, that there is no pain. All available evidence is nothing compared to a manager's hunch. And the laws of soccernomics dictate that they will get away with it. There is always someone willing to bail them out. There has never been a shortage of mug punters in the boardrooms of English football. Guardian

[Jockstar]

Too true.

[mrtoad]

A class report, which sums up all that is wrong.

[oldgit]

A class report, which sums up all that is wrong.

A common theme running through this report is that the mugs tend to be British managers.Another indictment of the lack of local quality in that department.

[fletchsmile]

Interesting article, and most of it highlights the ongoing themes. The bit I'd add would be where it says:

"...But they also know, ultimately, that there is no pain. All available evidence is nothing compared to a manager's hunch. And the laws of soccernomics dictate that they will get away with it..."

I think the selling managers know there is no pain in hanging on. But I think there can be big pains for the buying managers who have a lot of pressure on them and in turn put pressure on their boards to stump up the cash. The buying managers are pressured into instant results: eg 7/8 managers dismissed in Premiership at half way, and there's no patience on building teams. The exited managers are also quickly reminded of what they've spent.

The buyers seem to have little chance other than to try and get away with it..Yes seems much more demand than supply. Combined with the same managerially, and excessive demands on managers currently in jobs, the balance gets tilted even further.

Edited January 14, 2008 by fletchsmile