Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

Gold is in an uptrend and professional traders should be buying the dips.

calling 14% loss of an asset in 15 trading days a "dip" is indeed caca de vaca fascinating :jap:

[farang000999]

must be nice to be the guy who knew the margin hike was coming.

how much farther are we from 1:1 at the CME?

[Paulo1]

Posted Yesterday, 06:12

GOLD, SILVER.

Gold breaks key support at 1750 . This completes a doulbe top on the daily chart, pending if you draw support at 1750 or a base at 1700.

Trendline from 19/10/2008 to the 30/1/2011 should hold as support.

$1500/$1600 is now the target and with DXY forming a new support level at 76 i see an advance to 79 maybe more which confirms the downside in gold and silver. Current price as of writing is 1738.38.

Silver, support 33.43, once thats taken out should see support at 29 .70 down to 26.40 and on the low low side 18.33.

In all this is great for traders and investors to set long positions lower.

GPBUSD trade has now produced over 400 pips

Posted this yesterday morning. and today i have banked massive profits.

[farang000999]

as long as they keep raising margin requirements support levels mean diddly. likewise, as long as various entities are having liquidity problems, ala 2008, expect sell offs.

congrats to more astute or connected investors who got called a half hour before the CME margin hikes were made public and who can forsee the short term more clearly. those like myself can only invest towards the long term. what has changed in the big picture? nata.

[farang000999]

btw who would be on margin with cash they cant put up on the CME? havent figured it out yet?

[beginner]

Gold is in an uptrend and professional traders should be buying the dips.

calling 14% loss of an asset in 15 trading days a "dip" is indeed caca de vaca fascinating :jap:

You made me laugh out loud Naam.

Thanks.

[midas]

German Banks Need $175 Billion Capital

= peanuts!

Ok if you want in that shape

Next!

= NOT peanuts!

German Banks Have $1 Trillion In Hidden Losses?

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=194704

[Naam]

German Banks Have $1 Trillion In Hidden Losses?

New Zealand is planning to invade Australia?

[manarak]

There is something going on either with gold or with the AUD.

The AUD is falling, allegedly because YET ANOTHER "global crisis" is feared, which would negatively impact demand of raw materials, hitting the australian economy.

Yet at the same time, gold is falling too.

Why is gold falling if the fears of an international crisis drive the AUD down?

[Naam]

There is something going on either with gold or with the AUD.

The AUD is falling, allegedly because YET ANOTHER "global crisis" is feared, which would negatively impact demand of raw materials, hitting the australian economy.

Yet at the same time, gold is falling too.

Why is gold falling if the fears of an international crisis drive the AUD down?

AUD is a high yield currency. risk aversion causes HY currencies such as AUD, BRL, ZAR fall because carry trades, especially vs JP¥ are closed.

that gold fell could have multiple reasons:

-i had a stop loss for 150 ounces @ 1,750 which did not hold because the price dive was too fast, execution was @ 1,718

-unjustified price appreciation,

-a number of gurus warn of a "bubble",

-margin calls either scared speculators or perhaps they can't afford to put up with higher margins,

-simply offer and demand, Indians and Chinese did not buy as expected,

-the goldbugs are wrong with their perception "2,000, 5,000, 20,000... sky is the limit",

-the goldbugs who vowed "will buy more when dips occur" did not have the guts to buy more,

-shops still demand fiat money for steaks, vegetables and various other products,

-gardens look awful because of all that digging burying gold,

-investors miss Churchill's daily "NOW HEAR THIS... the central banks of Nauru and Tuvalu announced..."

:jap:

[flying]

-the goldbugs who vowed "will buy more when dips occur" did not have the guts to buy more,

Don't know about elsewhere in the world but....

As I told you via email yesterday I sold a small percentage (<10%) of gold. ( Paid off condo in Chiang Mai )

The dealer whom I always work with was ecstatic.

When I called him he said yes please please come now!

Paid me 100% in cash...not a small amount of cash

That told me

1 )He had buyers with cash

2) He did not have sellers/gold since he needed what I brought

Again this is just my dealer & I have no knowledge how it went elsewhere in the world.

One place I like to check temperatures at is one of the largest in the USA

Usually stocking 5-10k ounces of each coin.

Yesterday they had roughly 2000 ounces of each left.

[alyx]

-the goldbugs who vowed "will buy more when dips occur" did not have the guts to buy more,

Don't know about elsewhere in the world but....

As I told you via email yesterday I sold a small percentage (<10%) of gold. ( Paid off condo in Chiang Mai )

The dealer whom I always work with was ecstatic.

When I called him he said yes please please come now!

Paid me 100% in cash...not a small amount of cash

That told me

1 )He had buyers with cash

2) He did not have sellers/gold since he needed what I brought

Again this is just my dealer & I have no knowledge how it went elsewhere in the world.

One place I like to check temperatures at is one of the largest in the USA

Usually stocking 5-10k ounces of each coin.

Yesterday they had roughly 2000 ounces of each left.

I do not mean to be rude but you are talking about Thailand aren't you?

Well, Thailand is Thailand and I doubt it reflects the rest of the world: buyers are queuing the gold shops and have been doing so for months, even with gold at its highest

I do hope gold is going back to early September'price but...it is only hope and I must admit I am a bit nervous but nevertheless, I still hold even though I could get away with a "small" profit

As for the reference to the place you use to feel the market, what does "2000 ounces" refer to, compared to"which period"?

Edited September 25, 2011 by alyx

[Tokay]

Hey guys, why can't you buy bullion on Saturday and Sunday in Chinatown? I was told today at HUA SENG HENG this has been going on for about 1 month now and that I should have seen it on the news.

I clearly missed a memo somewhere.

[flying]

I do not mean to be rude but you are talking about Thailand aren't you?

Well, Thailand is Thailand and I doubt it reflects the rest of the world: buyers are queuing the gold shops and have been doing so for months, even with gold at its highest

I do hope gold is going back to early September'price but...it is only hope and I must admit I am a bit nervous but nevertheless, I still hold even though I could get away with a "small" profit

As for the reference to the place you use to feel the market, what does "2000 ounces" refer to, compared to"which period"?

No problem,

No I am not talking about Thailand except for the fact I payed off a condo in Thailand.

I live in the US & stay in Thailand a few months each year.

The place I reference is one of if not the largest bullion dealers in the USA

As always I refer to gold coins

You may have misread my intentions about buying. My comments were indicative that buying was occurring.

[flying]

Hey guys, why can't you buy bullion on Saturday and Sunday in Chinatown? I was told today at HUA SENG HENG this has been going on for about 1 month now and that I should have seen it on the news.

I clearly missed a memo somewhere.

I am not positive as I am not there at the moment.

But I believe you may have it backwards.

Thailand recently joined most of the rest of the world

in making it policy that they ( the dealers) do not *buy*

bullion when the markets are closed (weekends)

Of course you can buy 24/7 most places in the world.

But dealers do not want to buy during off market hours for fear of a gap down in price

at market open.

Of course the same could be said for them selling & missing a gap up at open

but one is seen as unrealized profit while the other a loss.

[flying]

Take this all for what it is worth....

Just my opinion & musings of things I see & read but.....

2008 provided a great opportunity to swap gold for silver

or to even buy silver outright. I know as I did so.

Bought a lot of physical silver at 77/1 ratio & swapped it all to add to my physical

gold holding at mid to high 30's low 40's/1 ratio

Looking back to that time Gold through a bunch of gyrations...

starting in March 08 & $1003./ozUSD went to

$848/oz in May 1st

$977/oz July 15th

$900/oz Aug 4th

waterfall to $786 Aug 18th

$900 Sept 22nd

Final bottom $704 Nov 13th 08 Down 30% from March peaks

Silver had similar gyrations...

March 5th, 08 $20.68/oz

May 1st $16.12/oz

July 14th $19.17/oz

August 6th $16.50/oz

Sept 11th plunged to $11.49

Sept 26th $13.45

Oct 28th & Nov 13th double bottoms at $8.80/oz Down 57%+ from March peaks

Not to imply we will see any exact repeats but.....a general pattern may be likely

So far gold has corrected 15% & silver 38%

If gold & silver are in fact to repeat a similar patter as 08 we may see a bottom in December.

This agrees with thinking of many I read that call for a sideways or continued drop then a resuming

of rise in January. So I like that these two thoughts are in agreement (again for me & implying no hard facts/rules)

In hindsight I do see in fact that 2008 provided a great opportunity to swap gold for silver at a max

of 83/1 ratio. Or even to buy outright as I did.

Applying this2008 correction & GSR ratio to what we see unfolding now....

57/1 would be a GSR number to keep in mind.

I also believe that this correction is going to be faster than the last one in 08

But again we will see.

I have been saying for awhile now that I thought the GSR would get to 60/1 & that

I will happily swap out a large percentage of my physical gold for Silver at that point.

I did not expect things to move this quickly but here we are hovering at 55/1. At this point I may not

wait till 60/1 after seeing the above numbers & percentages.

I did not get the bottom last time of 83/1 & entered at 77/1

Same with when I swapped out of silver. I did not nail that 29/1 but instead procrastinated till

high 30's. Not that big a deal in the big picture but hopefully I learn as I go.

Good Luck to any participants. As I said this is not meant as advice.

Just my musings of what I see & intend to act on personally if possible.

Unfortunately I will be out of the country during the height/bottom of what I think will be

the correction. So may have to act slightly prematurely or slightly late. Again not a problem

in the big picture & I know of none that catch the bottoms & tops exactly

Edited September 25, 2011 by flying

[Khun Jean]

In may i waited for silver to hit around 20$ after i changed my target from 30$.

Now silver is at 30$ again and The Bernanke 'twist' will soon be in full swing i decided to buy some more silver, probably 50% of the amount i want to spend now and then every week or so some more to try o get some at even lower prices. When it goes below 25$ i will go out of cash and all in on silver. My gold 'stash' of which some is wearable will stay untouched as i see it going higher and higher. I also bought some ING to have a toe in the stockmarket, because they lowered their exposure to risks a lot and i think there is a lot of upward potential, at least 50%.

Edited September 26, 2011 by Khun Jean

[flying]

Nice to see you again Kuhn Jean

[edgarfriendly]

is today the 'option expiry' date thing again?

seen a small drop in price already this morning, was kinda expecting that...if im right about the option expiration 'thing'

ef

Edited September 26, 2011 by edgarfriendly

[flying]

is today the 'option expiry' date thing again?

seen a small drop in price already this morning, was kinda expecting that...if im right about the option expiration 'thing'

ef

:lol:

Yes edgar it is option expiration week at the COMDEX

But as you saw last week it is also other things causing the drop this time around.

But yes IMO your right to expect the option expiration to again on cue this week cause some turmoil.

[pregyrick]

Based on long term technical indicator of GLD, gold currently in overbought territory. That is why for the past few weeks (short term) gold continue to drop. I would like to watch the price of $152 (GLD) if this price will be broken down and will also watch my uptrendline if this will be broken down.

[Naam]

Churchill is not feeding this thread with positive news. that's the real reason why gold is down

[edgarfriendly]

gold @ $99.00 /oz??

www.somecuntwhosaidonlyafoolwouldshortgoldnow.com

[Naam]

1,596 = falling faster than during "Lehman".

[flying]

1,596 = falling faster than during "Lehman".

Actually it needs to drop below $1430 to equal that.

[Tokay]

I am not positive as I am not there at the moment.

But I believe you may have it backwards.

Thailand recently joined most of the rest of the world

in making it policy that they ( the dealers) do not *buy*

bullion when the markets are closed (weekends)

Of course you can buy 24/7 most places in the world.

But dealers do not want to buy during off market hours for fear of a gap down in price

at market open.

Of course the same could be said for them selling & missing a gap up at open

but one is seen as unrealized profit while the other a loss.

That must be it. They said they have been doing it for a month, which was news to me. I thought that could be the case but Thailand has always done their own thing, so didn't make much sense.

Thanks for the explanation.

[DavidMavec]

What's the general consensus now guys?

Market still bullish in the long term? Do you follow the idea that gold will continue to rise as more paper money is printed? Or are there more powerful forces at work that will keep gold from rising rising rising?

Now is a good time to buy or sell physical?

[Naam]

1,596 = falling faster than during "Lehman".

Actually it needs to drop below $1430 to equal that.

actually i meant the period, not the percentage Flying. in 2008 it took several months what gold has "achieved" this year within three weeks.

[Naam]

What's the general consensus now guys?

your guess is as good as ours.

[farang000999]

sorry but there is something very troubling going on with silver here. it is an industrial metal and it should not have these types of swings. it is consumed. how much is available and how much is being used. it should not be any different than oil.

this whole event definitely has me spooked and i might sell all my paper gold and just hold the physical as insurance while i am still in the green because i would not be surprised to see gold at 1000/oz.

we all know fiat currency's value is going to be destroyed but how are you even supposed to value gold it has no earnings or anything like that.. it is all based on confidence (eroding quickly).. we had the 25% during lehman but that was forced liquidation - maybe this is as well... but if u r to look at gold as a safe haven, as money, as having "cash the gov can't print" it should not be having this type of volatility.

Edited September 26, 2011 by farang000999