Short, Medium And Long-term Affects On Tourism

[photojourn]

I need to put together a quick article for the London Daily Telegraph.

Anyone like to share their views and opinions on what the current situation in Thailand will do the for short, medium and long-term tourism market?

Now that we've officially hit peak season, your feedback on how you found the high or shoulder season would be appreciated too.

Comments on how these protests might affect the retiree market will also be appreciated.

Those responding can choose to have their businesses mentioned in the article or not.

Responses by PM also welcome or by email. My email address is on my profile.

Thanks

John

[sabaijai]

Moved to General Topics.

[Thailand]

You might like to talk to a few of the hotels here where I hear that staff are already being laid off because of the current dire situation .

Personally I consider that Thailand has now had just too may hiccups in the last few years and despite previously being a great tourist destination all of the recent problems will come back to haunt them and will take a long time to recover. With the world in general in financial crisis that will also be a factor in reduced tourism worldwide, that will be compounded here.

One scenario that may at least save some of the industry is that the baht is soon likely to come under pressure and a substantial devaluation will be beneficial for potential tourists.

My view as a retiree? Been here six years, love the country , the people, the food etc. However, every year seems to bring another problem of one sort or another, and because of continued uncertainties in the political and the constantly changing rules for foreign retirees we are seriously giving consideration to moving elsewhere. The problem therein is that we have a large beautiful house that is unlikely to sell for an acceptable price in the foreseeable future.

[markg]

Its going to be almost impossible to tell what the actual effects are, as tourism is also going to be hugely affected by the credit crunch. IATA are already saying that passenger numbers worldwide are down about 2 percent - even though the cost of oil has plummeted.

I was here for the Tsunami. Everyone said that was the end of tourism.

Short term - yes - here in Phuket due to damaged infrastructure. Medium to Long term for Europeans - i dont think the tsunami had any effect on their decision to come to thailand or not. The high season after the tsunami was huge - and to be honest some of that may have been to the exposure Thailand got on the television. All publicity is good publicity etc.

For other asians - they were very superstitious about coming to Phuket after the tsunami because of ghosts etc.

As for the coup and for this current balls up with the PAD...........i think the same. Westerners may cancel between now and Xmas, but will get over it pretty quickly and it will all be forgotton very very shortly. So just a short term blip in my view - though dont forget my comments on the credit crunch.

Other asian countries - i think will have some medium term impact, but again, for long term it will all be forgotton - as long as the country sorts it's shit out in the mean time.

The problem now is that due to the credit crunch, people will holiday closer to home and will REDISCOVER places that they had previously over looked...................that will also have an impact on the medium and long term tourism.

[pothai]

Its gonna be a very bad few years, especially for the more expensive destinations like Phuket and Samui. Millions unemployed in Europe, Aus & U.S., strong Baht, and all the fiascos of late......this high season has already finished befor it has begun.

[Rinrada]

Might get a few cheap tics on offer but the way Thai Airways behave they will prob. put their prices UP...

[pothai]

Might get a few cheap tics on offer but the way Thai Airways behave they will prob. put their prices UP...

That is the logic....dont sell as many, put the price up to compensate, not lower the price to entice new customers.... ...business sense this part of the world

[pothai]

The problem therein is that we have a large beautiful house that is unlikely to sell for an acceptable price in the foreseeable future.

If the house was bought/built over 18 months ago, you should be able to reduce the asking price anywhere up to 30% depending on the exchange rate your brought your funds over...six years ago was a very weak Baht. Also if you have lived for a period of 6 years without any rent I am sure you could accept considerably less that what you or an agent may think the house is worth therefor giving you the option to move on

[Johpa]

Fortunate for the Thai tourist industry that during this long holiday weekend here in the US, the news is being completely dominated by events in Bombay, and events in Thailand are only rarely making the worm thread at the bottom of the TV screen. I would imagine that in the UK and elsewhere in Europe, the same thing is happening. The government in Thailand could act this morning with prejudice against the PAD folks at the airports and the rest of the world would not notice.

[Rinrada]

Sad to say but Bombay in India is grabbing all the Headlines at the moment (over 'ere) and the PADI

(People Against Democracy ) crowd are seen as a bit of a Joke ....'sounds just like Terminal 5 at Heathrow in the summer'...but must be summit to do wiff British Airways ..innit.

Got a young lassie in my office who is off on 6 weeks hols ..next week...Jet Airways ...via ...guess ..and onto Bangers...

...shes wetting her self and asking me every 10 minutes or so ..WHATS HAPPENING......eh

I keep telling her that this happens all the time in T land and dont worry it will be back to normal by next week ...always the optomist.......gotta be the alternative aint worth.... ...isit

[starkey_rich]

I am afraid that the downturn in tourism here in Phuket will put many people out of work and crime will escalate.Last year here in Rawai there many farang(about 15 reported cases) knocked from motor bike's,then robbed, shot,beaten and even one person killed.

A few nights ago a local farang Rawai bar owner was attacked and beaten before robbing him of his nights takings and his motorbike.

So with the prediction of a drop of 50% and probably now 70% drop in tourist's Who know's

[garro]

I think that the current trouble will only really deter new visitors to Thailand and only for a while as people have short-memories when it comes to this type of thing. I think the real problem for Thailand is that it is no longer seen as the exotic getaway that it once was and some repeat visitor are losing interest. On the other hand, some people have left Thailand with far more than they arrived with and now have other reasons for visiting Thailand (i.e love and family) and their visits won't be changed by any amount of trouble. I feel bad for people who are losing their money through business failure but you will always be taking a big chance when you open a business here.

[Ulysses G.]

PAD (People Against Democracy )

[photojourn]

Thanks to everyone who responded to this and those who sent messages by PM.

The Daily Telegraph story can be read here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/3532660/...in-Bangkok.html

and the full version here: http://photojourn.wordpress.com/2008/11/29...sses-its-smile/