Suvarnabhumi PAD Protest Continues

[A_Traveller]

I've added some notes & thoughts on chrislarsson's post.

1. Economic Facts and Statistics

The GDP grew from THB 4.9 trillion at the end of 2001 to THB 7.1 trillion at the end of 2006 [within a growing commercial environment, mostly driven by the Chinese import expansion. This was not a result of policy actions, though it was helped by the actions of the previous administration, enacting IMF based reforms].

Thailand repaid its debts to the International Monetary Fund 2 years ahead of schedule. [This was simple nationalistic grandstanding with no economic benefit.]

Public sector debt fell from 57% of GDP in January 2001 to 41% in September 2006 [but was expected to grow dramatically as deferred requirements came due. This happened].

Foreign exchange reserves doubled from US$30 billion in 2001 to US$64 billion in 2006 [Yes, this was part of the concerted ASEAN wide plan to create a 'buffer' to reduce exposure thereby trying to avoid another financial collapse (Review other US currency holdings in the region).]

The economy in the Northeast, rose 40 per cent while nation-wide poverty fell from 21.3 per cent to 11.3 per cent. [both of these figures are subject to considerable dispute]

2. Introduced subsidized universal health care and low-cost universal access to anti-retroviral HIV medication (ARVs).

This policy is criticized as being populist. MedicAid was introduced in America (1965) when its economy was on a similar level as Thailand. Seems to me like a fair and sensible policy. [The health care proposal was in track prior to TRT winning the election. The key proposals had been made years before, and had been adopted by TRT as their own. A key issue here was that TRT was advised that there would need to be a substantive budget increase to make the transition work. (note before there was subsidised health care, this was not starting from a zero position, indeed elements of the proposal made it clear that existing programmes would be brought into the scheme). The failure to invest, made the programme subject to key critical failures. It is an oddity, or not, that a business leader seemed completely unaware of the requirement to create an effective infrastructure to support the scheme. Today the, now free scheme, limps along serving no one effectively. It is a hidden cost of the TRT administrations focus on deliver 'something' and then move on. Others' may recognise this as redolent of the political fashion 'the third way', adherents including the Clinton administration, and the New Labour government who were both technical advisors to the TRT campaign.]

3. Introduced low-interest agricultural loans to villages

This policy was also criticized as being populist. However, Muhammad Yunus from Bangladesh received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for giving this kind of microloans to poor people in 2006.

It is also accused by some as vote-buying. If this is vote-buying, then everything is vote-buying. There is no policy that will not benefit some group in the society more than another. [The problem here is that the loans were not a managed resource, unlike Yunus' techniques. In reality, much of the money contributed to a 'retail boom' focused on semi-durables, and not on agricultural development. This was not a case of people being foolish, but a reaction, since the missing component was a concomitant process designed to reduce the monopolistic & cartel like processing of agricultural products.

4. Introduced the "One District, One Scholarship" program which provided one student from a low-income family in each district with a scholarship to study overseas. [This one infamously dissolved into a plethora of unpaid loans, and a substantial percentage of recipients who most assuredly were not from “low-income” environments.]

5. The War on Drugs

According to Human Rights Watch more than 2,000 people were killed, and many of them may not have been involved in the drug trade. This issue does not seem to be a key issue to the overthrow of Thaksin. [For reasons we cannot discuss herein, but it does touch on the rule of law issue. The perception was, both before TRT and subsequently, that the privilege in Thailand means just that “private law”. Without an acknowledged legal structure, viewed as supportive and predictable, any country will struggle to be a centre for investment, let alone a safe place to live. An irony here is that some post here, with relish, how they pay 100 baht to avoid wearing a motorcycle helmet, without considering for a moment how this is yet another example of the failed legal structure.]

6. The Insurgency in Southern Thailand

Thaksin's tough policies in this conflict may have eliminated chances to reach a peaceful settlement. [Many would argue that by removing the Army based command (which included long lasting inter community links) and replacing this with 'friends of Thaksin', that he was responsible for removing the very structure which could have provided intelligence, and even a safety valve, for growing tensions, which by and large had been quiescent for years.]

7. Corruption Charges

According to Transparency International, Thailand was actually perceived as less corrupt in 2005 than 2001. Most corruption charges against Thaksin seem to involve conflict of interest [Yes, however, such conflicts at a governmental level create governance issues.]

8. The Sale of Shin Corporation

Appears to be the issue that tipped the scale resulting in the military coup. I do not fully understand what upset people the most. Was it the 49% sale of a Thai company to foreigners? Or was it because the sale was tax-free (what does the law say about this)? [This is a major topic all of its own, however, SCorp had been on the block for years, but a prerequisite was that the purchaser had to buy the stock through the exchange, thereby obviating, legally, the tax burden (but only on that step of the transaction, hence the whole Ample Rich issue). The change in the legal framework, which permitted the sale had been put in place by the TRT administration, and by and large was viewed as a precursor to a sale.]

9. Accumulation of Power and Wealth

It is often argued that Thaksin’s accumulation of power and wealth, put checks and balances out of order and the nation at risk. The argument would be that even if Thaksin lost an election in the future, he would be so powerful that he would still remain in charge in practice. This is an argument impossible to prove though. [but his present and past actions are supportive of the 'Thailand as a Thaksin fiefdom' argument. This is where the polarity really occurs, if you view Thaksin as no more or less corrupt that others, and beneficial to the country, the loss of the few remaining elements of a 'liberal democracy' may be a small price to pay, others view him, and what he represents, as ultimately destructive of the very democracy which through the '97 constitution gave him such power. Note this is not a obsession about him, but an acknowledgment that the '97 constitution had one goal, that was to provide the PM with a tool set to resist coalition fragmentation. One might be tempted to recall the old saw, be careful what you wish for, you may get it.

Regards

/edit typo//

Edited November 30, 2008 by A_Traveller

[jdinasia]

Classic check this out were a bit slow down under but the girls are hot even by Thai standards

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=676153

There we have it, PAD paying parents to send their children to go protest. Disgusting. When I said PAD was at my Soi's market recruiting and offering money to anyone who whould drive with them to Suvarnabhumi, nobody believed me.

Exactly, there we have it.

Some people will believe ANYTHING as long as it suits them.

Yes .. you will

Inga Vennell, who was due to leave the country on Wednesday after a backpacking trip, told ninemsn shopkeepers, out-of-pocket tourists and children were being paid to join the rally.

I am sure Inga is clued in ... that is why we see so much info!

So now we have a report from Rainman --- waiting on his mail and virulently anti-PAD and a poverty packer that has been personally inconvenienced as well!

Edited November 30, 2008 by jdinasia

[KhaoNiaw]

Didn't this smack of an absolute defeat of the government? It did to me. It looked like the PAD mob were on summer camp and having the time of their lives.

It's the weekend!

[Old Man River]

My take is 1) court dissolves most of the coalition parties next week for electoral fraud and 2) there is no coup, but there'll have to be an election - and probably quite a lot of ongoing problems during the 'campaigning'. After that, who knows.

The court will be deciding on the PPP only for now. Pending a dissolution, it is expected that the caretaker government put in place would consist of non executive PPP members (i.e. those not banned). Names like Chalerm and Mingkwan have been brought up.

Some want the courts or military to use this as the reason to put in a national unity government which would pave the way for "new politics" to be implemented. I suspect this will happen, but not immediately following the dissolution. Until a national unity government is put in place and new politics implemented, the PAD will not stop their protests as the PAD expects that the northeast would just vote in another Thaksin backed party (this is not a democracy as we know it).

I suspect the military is waiting for heightened violence so that they can then step in and bring in the national unity government. A national unity government has been discussed for months. To me, it isn't a question of if a national unity government is put in place, but rather when.

It should be noted that Pojamon was in heavy negotiations with the police a few days ago seeking bail so that she could return. It is speculated that her reason for returning would be to pave the way for Thaksin's return. This is one of the reasons that the PAD acted as they have. The police ended up denying her bail request since she has already skipped bail once.

Nobody knows right now where this will all lead. It is very much a fluid situation.

Edited November 30, 2008 by Old Man River

[MikeWill]

rainman, get a rest, you seemed to be too tied.

First, you ask klutz questions:

- If the PPP is dissolved on December 2nd anyways, why occupy the airports for a week if it leads to the same result?

- What happens if the PPP is not dissolved on December 2nd? Will PAD continue?

Then, make too many mental efforts:

I think the real reason why the opposition hates Thaksin is because he fought corruption. Sondhi and Chamlong didn't get as many bribes anymore as before.

What happened to your judgement skills:

Corruption was lower after Thaksin left office than when he entered office. What do you call that?

I call that "creative thinking" on your part.

[fauxie]

Condo-bk...

regarding the 'creative thinking' comment do you have any facts to call upon that show corruption was higher under Thaksin? Don't get me wrong, I can't stand the guy, but so far we've just got that corruption index and that goes contrary to what you're saying. Obviously if you've nothing concrete to call upon your comment holds no weight whatsoever.

[jdinasia]

More from Inga's 'story' --- link above ...

"People who work at clothing stores, cafes and bars — and who don’t have any affiliation with the protesters — are getting paid about 100 Baht ($AU4.30) to go in

LOL

[Samuian]

Classic check this out were a bit slow down under but the girls are hot even by Thai standards

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=676153

There we have it, PAD paying parents to send their children to go protest. Disgusting. When I said PAD was at my Soi's market recruiting and offering money to anyone who whould drive with them to Suvarnabhumi, nobody believed me.

Exactly, there we have it.

Some people will believe ANYTHING as long as it suits them.

Yes .. you will

Inga Vennell, who was due to leave the country on Wednesday after a backpacking trip, told ninemsn shopkeepers, out-of-pocket tourists and children were being paid to join the rally.

I am sure Inga is clued in ... that is why we see so much info!

So now we have a report from Rainman --- waiting on his mail and virulently anti-PAD and a poverty packer that has been personally inconvenienced as well!

well compensated isa better interpretation - isn't it and doesn't serve a distorting polariation... just a thought or2...

Stranded tourist to be compensated Bt2,000 per day: foreign minister

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sompong Amornwiwat said the government would spend at least Bt1 billion to compensate tourist left stranded because of the besieging the two Bangkok airports.

Sompong was Sunday quoted by Manage Online as saying that each of tourists would receive Bt2 billion a day from the special fund until they could fly home.

Thais, who have been stranded overseas, will receive the same rate of compensations, he said.

He was quoted as saying that he had informed foreign envoys of the compensations.

The Nation

is it maybe that what "Inga" has been reflecting about..... and then, who is "Inga Vernell"?

[Moonrakers]

Classic check this out were a bit slow down under but the girls are hot even by Thai standards

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=676153

There we have it, PAD paying parents to send their children to go protest. Disgusting. When I said PAD was at my Soi's market recruiting and offering money to anyone who whould drive with them to Suvarnabhumi, nobody believed me.

Exactly, there we have it.

Some people will believe ANYTHING as long as it suits them.

Yes .. you will

JD, was intended as a dig to rainman.

[Thailand]

No, this is what they reported: "there have been UNCONFIRMED reports that the PM MAY have left the country for personal reasons".... And to be sure we understood that these were as yet uncomfirmed , they repeated it.

There was an unscheduled flight out of CM this morning at 6.30 am, could be relevant but too many unscheduled out of the ordinary occurrences at the moment.

[sezze]

News on Nation .

PM visits Nakhon Panom

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews

[fauxie]

It's funny how when you ask for facts or sources some people just seem to slink away for a while.

[Guest Reimar]

From TOC

PAD Surrounds House of Interior Minister

UPDATE : 30 November 2008

Around 300 PAD supporters have surrounded the residence of Interior Minister Kowit Wattana to protest against the latest bomb attacks against the protestors last night.

Meanwhile PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang has met with the Metropolitan Police chief to cooperate with the police in organising joint patrol between the police and PAD guards.

[SomNamNah]

to protest against the latest bomb attacks against the protestors last night.

joint patrols! HAHAHAHAAArRRRgggHHHH

PMSL! (not really - more like laughing cos otherwise i'd cry!)

Edited November 30, 2008 by SomNamNah

[oneeyedmunstaruler]

PM visits Nakhon Panom province

Somchai visited the province to pay respect to Pratart Panom Temple, he said.

He travelled from Chiang Mai where he lately used as his office after anti-government protesters seized two Bangkok airports.

Easier to escape from there?

[GlenOrd]

Classic check this out were a bit slow down under but the girls are hot even by Thai standards

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=676153

There we have it, PAD paying parents to send their children to go protest. Disgusting. When I said PAD was at my Soi's market recruiting and offering money to anyone who whould drive with them to Suvarnabhumi, nobody believed me.

Oh my God. Is this news source reliable? Never heard of 9-News before.

[sezze]

PM visits Nakhon Panom province

Somchai visited the province to pay respect to Pratart Panom Temple, he said.

He travelled from Chiang Mai where he lately used as his office after anti-government protesters seized two Bangkok airports.

Easier to escape from there?

Hmmm , i really don't think it is easier to escape from there then from CM . CM is so close to the border , has a very good international airport and plenty of support for him there . No way it is easier in Nakhon Panom .

[GlenOrd]

By ruining the country? The PPP will be dissolved in 2 days anyways. Why stand up a week before and ruin the country if the outcome is the same, on the same day? Explain that?

Did you miss the parts where the government was planning on amending the Constitution in order to make their actions legal (hence the case against them that the court is considering would become moot).

Or the parts where, in desperation, they are trying to have the judges impeached ? Which would likely cause the case to be tossed out, or suspended until they (the government) could ram those constitutional changes through.

Or the part where they, the government, were trying to grant themselves the power to declare amnesties and pardons ? Which would allow them to pardon their true leader, so he could return and take power again.

If PAD had not taken the actions they have, those changes may have already been enacted, and all their crimes erased.

Yeah, that's a democratic government all right. Break the law, then change the law to make it legal and allow them to do it again in the future. Then do more of the same in the future (i.e. electoral fraud, but now legal) to ensure they get elected again.

And some people apparently have no problem with that.

I believe you get these fact from ASTV. Yes I also heard this, straight from Sohdhi mouth (recoding in www.manager.co.th), hence I discount it straight away.

Can you please provide a different news source; like bbc, cnn, etc.

[MikeWill]

Condo-bk...

regarding the 'creative thinking' comment do you have any facts to call upon that show corruption was higher under Thaksin? Don't get me wrong, I can't stand the guy, but so far we've just got that corruption index and that goes contrary to what you're saying. Obviously if you've nothing concrete to call upon your comment holds no weight whatsoever.

Do you really asking for corruption statistics?

"we've just got that corruption index" - come on, be real. How many PMs were convicted on corruption charges?

Edited November 30, 2008 by Condo_bk

[markokang]

Its a very strange feeling being in a place that has no police authority, The PAD members with weapons were made even more intimidating by this fact. If they turned on us, no one would (or could)come to help.

The PAD has an enormous supply of food, clothing and blankets. I got my toothbrush from them along with a bag of apples,a shaver and a coffee! (more than I had received from the Red Cross during my 3 days)

They have phone charging points, a shuttle service, a makeshift hospital, really quite impressive.

Mark --- interesting observations ... those "weapon" wielding PAD were .. polite, courteous, and treated you well! You were afraid yet able to wander through them and get supplies from them (for free?) but were afraid?

How were the police armed vs the PAD?

Seems as if the PAD are 'armed' only enough to push back a non-police, non-military attack from the UDD and nothing else (unless you count yesterday's report of them scaring off the police from the freeway block they had set up!

Jdinasia

I think you misread what I said on a couple of points;

1. I did say there were 2 kinds of PAD, the hardcore younger guys who were weilding weapons and the family type. Obviously the older family type made us feel welcome(and had no weapons), while the others searched us and were wielding weapons which in itself is intimidating. I seen an incident while there were they were looking for someone for some unkown reason and they surrounded a man and physically held him against the wall, the guy looked terrified. But yes, the people inside were generally friendly and nice and even wanted to take photos with me.

I think I was allowed to walk around freely because I had my ambulance uniform on and official Red Cross Identification around my neck. I guessed being a farang helped too, although journalists have been complaining about being searched and seem to think the PAD dont like them.

2. I said the nurses were afraid. I went by myself into the airport, I was a little apprehensive but not afraid. I am adventurous, its why I do what I do.

And to answer your other questions;

1. The police I seen had shields and long battons and helmets, no visible holstered guns.

Seems as if the PAD are 'armed' only enough to push back a non-police, non-military attack from the UDD and nothing else (unless you count yesterday's report of them scaring off the police from the freeway block they had set up!

I am not sure if you want an answer to this or not but anyway, it is a well known fact that some of the PAD have guns (and have used them already), but then again, this applies to the average Thai person in the street. Guns are a very big part of Thai life, I often see the result of this in my work.

Marko

[markokang]

we just sent big amount of coke, water, cake and coffee as donation for the PAD, my wife gave 5.000 Baht for buying food, so there should be more than enough. Often the shops even don't want to take the money or give much more than ordered.

I saw a picture on one website of a literal mountain for food supplies. Where are they cooking?

On the roadway, the pick up and drop off areas out front of the building on the 4th floor. I only seen noodles and fruit at the airport (SBM)

[permanent_disorder]

Classic check this out were a bit slow down under but the girls are hot even by Thai standards

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=676153

There we have it, PAD paying parents to send their children to go protest. Disgusting. When I said PAD was at my Soi's market recruiting and offering money to anyone who whould drive with them to Suvarnabhumi, nobody believed me.

Exactly, there we have it.

Some people will believe ANYTHING as long as it suits them.

right. golden rule, have a look at the source and better do a double check.

just look at the first entry on this thread. TOC reports what ASTV Manager Online had reported. TOC & ASTV i think you know those media outlets. but this report was FAUX. false, untrue. disinformation on purpose. propaganda lies, obviously.

but there are people around who still will believe ANYTHING.

and we have peolpe deny anything as long it not suits their set of BELIEFS.

[GlenOrd]

From TOC

PAD Surrounds House of Interior Minister

UPDATE : 30 November 2008

Around 300 PAD supporters have surrounded the residence of Interior Minister Kowit Wattana to protest against the latest bomb attacks against the protestors last night.

Meanwhile PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang has met with the Metropolitan Police chief to cooperate with the police in organising joint patrol between the police and PAD guards.

Joint Patrol? Make me laugh. Last night Sondhi just told their guards "Shoot the police if they try to search you for gun".

I have posted the link (of the speeach) and a translation this morning. Please scroll up.

[marshbags]

There was no mention about the PM doing a runner on the BBC news just now at 17.20 ?????

marshbags

[frodo]

There was no mention about the PM doing a runner on the BBC news just now at 17.20 ?????

marshbags

Yes, there was. It was mentioned about 17:15. The reporter did say is was unconfirmed, but Thai TV has been reporting it.

[thaimiller]

There was no mention about the PM doing a runner on the BBC news just now at 17.20 ?????

marshbags

the reporter quentin (whatever) did say that they had unconfirmed reports that thai television was reporting that he had left the country for personal resasons. that was on bbc

Edited November 30, 2008 by thaimiller

[xminator]

The key words in that report from BBC was "journalist inside airport" and "rumor". Rumors about the PM from inside a PAD stronghold is not likely to be true, and thats why BBC should self-cencor that part out now.

Edited November 30, 2008 by xminator

[Devil]

There was no mention about the PM doing a runner on the BBC news just now at 17.20 ?????

marshbags

Yes I heard him say that also , something along the lines of - Thai PM has apparently already fled the country due to personal reasons!

This hasn't been reported anywhere else?

[GlenOrd]

but then again, this applies to the average Thai person in the street. Guns are a very big part of Thai life, I often see the result of this in my work.

I have to object to this statement. Unlike the US where you can buy guns in Walmart, Guns are in strict control in Thailand. One can be arrested simply having guns in their procession.

[bkkbaz]

There was no mention about the PM doing a runner on the BBC news just now at 17.20 ?????

marshbags

Yes I heard him say that also , something along the lines of - Thai PM has apparently already fled the country due to personal reasons!

This hasn't been reported anywhere else?

Somchai is in Nakhon Phanom.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30089806

A friend in the area tells me he's still there.