Economic Slow Down?

[dave111223]

All i hear on the news is stories about how bad the economy is, how people are losing their jobs every day. But in real life it does not actually seem to be affecting people?

For example last night i went to eat dinner at Major Ratchayothin (a Wednesday night), and there was a line of cars all the way out into the street trying to get into the parking garage. At the restaurant it was totally full and had to wait to get a seat.

So if the malls/restaurants are packed, even on a Wednesday night....what's the deal? Where is the economic crisis? Or has it just not filtered down yet?

[VegasVic]

All i hear on the news is stories about how bad the economy is, how people are losing their jobs every day. But in real life it does not actually seem to be affecting people?

For example last night i went to eat dinner at Major Ratchayothin (a Wednesday night), and there was a line of cars all the way out into the street trying to get into the parking garage. At the restaurant it was totally full and had to wait to get a seat.

So if the malls/restaurants are packed, even on a Wednesday night....what's the deal? Where is the economic crisis? Or has it just not filtered down yet?

Denial is the first stage, I would imagine that this will last for another month or so and then the second stage will surface(anger, if I remeber correctly)!

[mijan24]

All i hear on the news is stories about how bad the economy is, how people are losing their jobs every day. But in real life it does not actually seem to be affecting people?

For example last night i went to eat dinner at Major Ratchayothin (a Wednesday night), and there was a line of cars all the way out into the street trying to get into the parking garage. At the restaurant it was totally full and had to wait to get a seat.

So if the malls/restaurants are packed, even on a Wednesday night....what's the deal? Where is the economic crisis? Or has it just not filtered down yet?

Hotel occupancy rates are way down - of course "T" logic applies and they have increased their rates to compensate.

Beer Bars are almost empty (for this time of year) and the same > in price for all commodities seems to apply.

Back in Oz wheree i have been fore the past 4 months belts are being tightened and the worst is yet to come.

The oldest GMH dealership in Victoria have had to close their doors - stock was auctioned to the public as GMH could not take it back and redistribute as all Dealers are FULL.

Floor Plans for Car dealers look like receiveing a Govt bailout but this does not apply to Boat dealerships and 30 Dec08 is their cut off date.

Not spouting doom & gloom just forewarned is forearmed - there should be some good buying in 09 in Oz with houses as there is in UK & USA as long as you are cashed up, of course the same should apply in Thailand but the logic does not apply here as we have all experienced - It would be good to get a sneak preview of the Thai 2009 Proposerd Business Model.

[PeaceBlondie]

The rich and famous will just have to have less caviar. Let them eat less cake.

Chrysler of North America reported that their sales were down 47% in November. Ford, 31%. Dealers cannot get financing for their customers, or even for their floor plans.

Traffic in Chiang Mai is still heavy at rush hour and slightly heavy in the evening entertainment areas, but not crowded like high season was several years ago. Hua Hin is way down in the tourist area, considering high season.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Go into CIA World Factbook and compare Thailands Economy with those of places like the US, UK and most anywhere and Thailand comes out smelling of roses. Export higher than import a surplus larger than external debt etc. etc.

Thailand should weather the storm much better than most places you can pick. Not saying it isn't going to feel the crunch, just don't think it will be anything as bad as it is felt in the US & UK. Enjoy you picked the right place!

[teatree]

Right now we are looking out into the horizon and noticing the wind is picking up and getting hit by frequent gusts. It won't be long before the force 5 hurricane hits.

[londonthai]

shoppers are lining up for some special offers - they leave disappointed

[thaihome]

All i hear on the news is stories about how bad the economy is, how people are losing their jobs every day. But in real life it does not actually seem to be affecting people?

For example last night i went to eat dinner at Major Ratchayothin (a Wednesday night), and there was a line of cars all the way out into the street trying to get into the parking garage. At the restaurant it was totally full and had to wait to get a seat.

So if the malls/restaurants are packed, even on a Wednesday night....what's the deal? Where is the economic crisis? Or has it just not filtered down yet?

Hotel occupancy rates are way down - of course "T" logic applies and they have increased their rates to compensate.

Beer Bars are almost empty (for this time of year) and the same > in price for all commodities seems to apply.

...

Should be pointed out the the thousands of people that are at Major Ratchayothin every night do not depend on tourist hotels or beer bars for their living. Oh, the Singha beer garden on the roof on the new shoping center in front of the main mall at Major Ratchayothin is packed every night as well.

TH

[mijan24]

All i hear on the news is stories about how bad the economy is, how people are losing their jobs every day. But in real life it does not actually seem to be affecting people?

For example last night i went to eat dinner at Major Ratchayothin (a Wednesday night), and there was a line of cars all the way out into the street trying to get into the parking garage. At the restaurant it was totally full and had to wait to get a seat.

So if the malls/restaurants are packed, even on a Wednesday night....what's the deal? Where is the economic crisis? Or has it just not filtered down yet?

Hotel occupancy rates are way down - of course "T" logic applies and they have increased their rates to compensate.

Beer Bars are almost empty (for this time of year) and the same > in price for all commodities seems to apply....

Should be pointed out the the thousands of people that are at Major Ratchayothin every night do not depend on tourist hotels or beer bars for their living. Oh, the Singha beer garden on the roof on the new shoping center in front of the main mall at Major Ratchayothin is packed every night as well.

TH

TH remembering when you live with no thought of tomorrow but just the here and now this is not suprising lets see how it looks come March next year??? - Strange as it may seem that about Songkhran Time he he he

[Heng]

Plenty of indicators of economic slow down around if you look for them. I have a neighbor who just got laid off from Thai Asahi Glass. My own export revenues and import revenues are a bit down. I have had a few tenants pack up and leave without notice (and only half have been replaced by new tenants). Judging from how many late rental and interest payments I'm getting and how frazzled some of them look, I doubt I'll be raising any rents nor extending any more credit lines at any significant level any time soon. I've seen a couple of broad daylight necklace snatchings (and one from an acquaintence who is a traffic policeman! ....who happened to be in plain clothes that day) live and in person just a block away from my mother in law's house in Cholburi. Up till now I've yet to see anything like that.

Just be sure not to be dissapointed though (it's funny how it seems like many are on these boards) if your friends, neighbors, or acquaintences are still doing relatively well because of larger cash reserves or diverse income streams.

[fred2007]

Plenty of indicators of economic slow down around if you look for them. I have a neighbor who just got laid off from Thai Asahi Glass. My own export revenues and import revenues are a bit down. I have had a few tenants pack up and leave without notice (and only half have been replaced by new tenants). Judging from how many late rental and interest payments I'm getting and how frazzled some of them look, I doubt I'll be raising any rents nor extending any more credit lines at any significant level any time soon. I've seen a couple of broad daylight necklace snatchings (and one from an acquaintence who is a traffic policeman! ....who happened to be in plain clothes that day) live and in person just a block away from my mother in law's house in Cholburi. Up till now I've yet to see anything like that.

Just be sure not to be dissapointed though (it's funny how it seems like many are on these boards) if your friends, neighbors, or acquaintences are still doing relatively well because of larger cash reserves or diverse income streams.

I agree, I don't have any source of income from overseas I do reley on normal Thai people

for my income. I have some small units for rent ( not like Bankok) I only charge 2-3k per month.

I lost half of my tenants now because the company they work for has not paid there wages for

2 months because of financial difficulties.

[thaihome]

Plenty of indicators of economic slow down around if you look for them. I have a neighbor who just got laid off from Thai Asahi Glass. My own export revenues and import revenues are a bit down. I have had a few tenants pack up and leave without notice (and only half have been replaced by new tenants). Judging from how many late rental and interest payments I'm getting and how frazzled some of them look, I doubt I'll be raising any rents nor extending any more credit lines at any significant level any time soon. I've seen a couple of broad daylight necklace snatchings (and one from an acquaintence who is a traffic policeman! ....who happened to be in plain clothes that day) live and in person just a block away from my mother in law's house in Cholburi. Up till now I've yet to see anything like that.

Just be sure not to be dissapointed though (it's funny how it seems like many are on these boards) if your friends, neighbors, or acquaintences are still doing relatively well because of larger cash reserves or diverse income streams.

I don’t disagree that economy is slowing down. I was responding to the post that said because the hotels are reporting low occupancy the beer bars are empty some how that impacted Thais that go to Major Ratchayothin. I was just pointing out that millions of Thais still have jobs and the money to enjoy a night at a mall. Many of them will impacted next year as exports slowdown. Nevertheless, a slowdown in the growth rate does not mean everyone becomes unemployed. Thailand for some time has enjoyed virtually full employment (for those that want to work), having an unemployment rate of 2% or 3% will be painful for those impacted, but that still means that 97% will still have jobs.

TH

[Mosha]

People in the tourist trade will hurt. A friend in town has a Live aboard dive boat, and has had his first cancellation. He is adopting his tactics to suit the present climate.

[duncaw]

There's an investment company in my office building (I'm not saying which one) that about a year ago used to have a steady stream of Khunyings visiting at all hours of the day.

In the past few months the number of visiting Khunyings has dropped off significantly (down by about 75% I would estimate).

In addition the ones that are visiting have dramatically changed their appearance:

- Bouffon hairstyles / wigs are now looking extremely tired

- They used to be dripping with gold, nothing in evidence any more

- The Louis Vuitton handbags have all disappeared, replaced with drab non-branded bags

- Even their clothing has changed - many now seem to be wearing cheap / free / giveaway polo shirts

On the plus side, I now very rarely have to wait whilst one of the security guards holds the lift door open for 5 minutes so some old biddy can shuffle eight feet to the lift.

[Heng]

Plenty of indicators of economic slow down around if you look for them. I have a neighbor who just got laid off from Thai Asahi Glass. My own export revenues and import revenues are a bit down. I have had a few tenants pack up and leave without notice (and only half have been replaced by new tenants). Judging from how many late rental and interest payments I'm getting and how frazzled some of them look, I doubt I'll be raising any rents nor extending any more credit lines at any significant level any time soon. I've seen a couple of broad daylight necklace snatchings (and one from an acquaintence who is a traffic policeman! ....who happened to be in plain clothes that day) live and in person just a block away from my mother in law's house in Cholburi. Up till now I've yet to see anything like that.

Just be sure not to be dissapointed though (it's funny how it seems like many are on these boards) if your friends, neighbors, or acquaintences are still doing relatively well because of larger cash reserves or diverse income streams.

I don’t disagree that economy is slowing down. I was responding to the post that said because the hotels are reporting low occupancy the beer bars are empty some how that impacted Thais that go to Major Ratchayothin. I was just pointing out that millions of Thais still have jobs and the money to enjoy a night at a mall. Many of them will impacted next year as exports slowdown. Nevertheless, a slowdown in the growth rate does not mean everyone becomes unemployed. Thailand for some time has enjoyed virtually full employment (for those that want to work), having an unemployment rate of 2% or 3% will be painful for those impacted, but that still means that 97% will still have jobs.

TH

Yeah, I was responding to that post too.

[OlRedEyes]

Battening down the hatches, and waiting for the storm to pass may not work this time. It really does looks like the big one this time.

It's nice to have cash reserves to see you through bad times, but if the downturn is as prolonged and deep as this looks to be heading to, those reserves could become really strained, or run out altogether. New income streams, more appropriate for a prolonged depression, is a must IMHO.

The world economy is going to emerge from this looking totally different from the past decades. There is going to be a huge shift in economic thinking. Time to start thinking outside the box.

Edited December 19, 2008 by OlRedEyes

[xbusman]

As usual, I agree with Ol Red Eyes. The storm that is coming is going to be a long nasty one with new paradigms on the other side.

[Heng]

As long as those new paradigms don't involve the collapse of HSBC, Standard Chartered, OCBC, UOB, the top 6 Thai banks, and the cancellation/nullification of land ownership (like Zimbabwe), it'll be the same playing field as before... except with everyone bumped down a few notches.

[ballbreaker]

Thai's operate on a different wavelength so they live one day at a time and will worry about tomorrow when its comes.

[Heng]

Those that operate 90 days at a time are so much brighter. 90 times so apparently.

[mijan24]

As long as those new paradigms don't involve the collapse of HSBC, Standard Chartered, OCBC, UOB, the top 6 Thai banks, and the cancellation/nullification of land ownership (like Zimbabwe), it'll be the same playing field as before... except with everyone bumped down a few notches.

This in my view sums it up very well for those who are wary and tighten their belts accordingly will hopefully sit out this Financial Tsnamui.

You notice in the newspapers and on the TV all (or most) are singing nothing to worry about?? There was an announcement today which promotes Govt projects as one of the means of weathering the storm - If you read between the lines this is acknowledging changing fortunes are in the wind and this is a strategy (or at least on strategy of keeping things going ahead) This type of statement should be applauded because it's not a case of burying your head in the sand but rather an acknowledgement of the world situation and a means (be it only one of many more to come) of addressing the situation.

Hotel vacancies & beer bar stools with no bums has been with us for a period now the latest airport fiasco will not help alleviate either situation but more importantly - I firmly believe the belt tightening in developed countries will have a big effect on Tourism world wide and when you look at how heavily Thailand depends upon the Tourist Industry it does not sit well for 09/10.

There is hope the Auto Industry will keep pace - lets be realistic The Auto Industry in America, UK and Australia are in a mess why would one believe that Thai auto exports won't be hit.

This is not a wish list just some practical thinking and the poster who said lets start looking outside the box has certainly made a good point.

[mijan24]

Battening down the hatches, and waiting for the storm to pass may not work this time. It really does looks like the big one this time.

It's nice to have cash reserves to see you through bad times, but if the downturn is as prolonged and deep as this looks to be heading to, those reserves could become really strained, or run out altogether. New income streams, more appropriate for a prolonged depression, is a must IMHO.

The world economy is going to emerge from this looking totally different from the past decades. There is going to be a huge shift in economic thinking. Time to start thinking outside the box.

Agree entirely.

[tmwke]

Battening down the hatches, and waiting for the storm to pass may not work this time. It really does looks like the big one this time.

It's nice to have cash reserves to see you through bad times, but if the downturn is as prolonged and deep as this looks to be heading to, those reserves could become really strained, or run out altogether. New income streams, more appropriate for a prolonged depression, is a must IMHO.

The world economy is going to emerge from this looking totally different from the past decades. There is going to be a huge shift in economic thinking. Time to start thinking outside the box.

Agree entirely.

I am afraid i agree The Big one World Wde is on its way !

[Ricardo]

People in the tourist trade will hurt. A friend in town has a Live aboard dive boat, and has had his first cancellation. He is adopting his tactics to suit the present climate.

Which is Living-Aboard, while the world economy Dives, presumably ?

[midas]

As long as those new paradigms don't involve the collapse of HSBC, Standard Chartered, OCBC, UOB, the top 6 Thai banks, and the cancellation/nullification of land ownership (like Zimbabwe), it'll be the same playing field as before... except with everyone bumped down a few notches.

This in my view sums it up very well for those who are wary and tighten their belts accordingly will hopefully sit out this Financial Tsnamui.

You notice in the newspapers and on the TV all (or most) are singing nothing to worry about?? There was an announcement today which promotes Govt projects as one of the means of weathering the storm - If you read between the lines this is acknowledging changing fortunes are in the wind and this is a strategy (or at least on strategy of keeping things going ahead) This type of statement should be applauded because it's not a case of burying your head in the sand but rather an acknowledgement of the world situation and a means (be it only one of many more to come) of addressing the situation.

Hotel vacancies & beer bar stools with no bums has been with us for a period now the latest airport fiasco will not help alleviate either situation but more importantly - I firmly believe the belt tightening in developed countries will have a big effect on Tourism world wide and when you look at how heavily Thailand depends upon the Tourist Industry it does not sit well for 09/10.

There is hope the Auto Industry will keep pace - lets be realistic The Auto Industry in America, UK and Australia are in a mess why would one believe that Thai auto exports won't be hit.

This is not a wish list just some practical thinking and the poster who said lets start looking outside the box has certainly made a good point.

hey mijan, I like people who are at the very least prepared to " look outside the box "

You mind find this article quite stimulating for the old grey matter :-

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2008/111708Lendman.shtml

this is just a small sample ...............

" It's a minority but growing view, including from 86-year old former Goldman Sachs chairman, John Whitehead, at the November 12 Reuters Global Finance Summit in New York. As disturbing evidence mounts, he said: "I think it would be worse than the depression. We're talking about reducing the credit of the United States of America, which is the backbone of the economic system. I see nothing but large increases in the deficit, all of which are serving to decrease the credit standing of America."

Edited December 20, 2008 by midas

[VegasVic]

Right now we are looking out into the horizon and noticing the wind is picking up and getting hit by frequent gusts. It won't be long before the force 5 hurricane hits.

Its kind of like those people who went out into the ocean when the Tsunami sucked the tide way out not knowing what was happening and then were inundated when the giant waves came in