New Economic Crises Predicted To Be Worse Than 97

[Mai Krap]

Health ministry prepares for adverse impact on public health

BANGKOK: -- The Public Health Ministry has created a Health Intelligent Unit to monitor the impact the current economic situation will have on the health of the Thai people as well as on the public and private healthcare systems.

This unit will draw up a plan and prepare measures to help people adversely affected by the state of the global economy, such as the poor, the unemployed, the young, elderly and single mothers.

The ministry's deputy permanent secretary, Dr Chakratham Thammasak, said the ministry's surveillance committee will be running the unit and collecting information to estimate the adverse impacts.

The surveillance committee is comprised of the Bureau of Policy and Strategy, Department of Health, Department of Health Services and Support, International Health Policy Programme, Health System Research Institute, National Health Security Office, Health Insurance System Research Office, National Statistical Office and the Social Security Office.

The Bureau of Policy and Strategy's director, Dr Suppakit Sirilak, who is also chairing the surveillance committee, said the unit would be monitoring the impacts on public health until December 2010.

"We will team up with experts and scholars to study any possible health impacts," he said.

Meanwhile, the National Statistical Office will survey the impact the global economic crisis is having on the labour market. The unit will report to the ministry's highlevel officers every three months to come up with policies that help mitigate the problems, he added.

Dr Chakratham said the ministry believes this economic crisis is worse than the one that hit Thailand in 1997.

About one to two million workers will lose their jobs, while those with no health insurance will be most at risk. The number of povertystricken people would increase to one million and the government will end up having to cut its health budget. The ministry said it expects newborns to be malnourished and the number of stressrelated suicides to rise. In addition, he said, more people will also choose to purchase overthecounter drugs instead of going to the hospital.

-- The Nation 2009-02-09

[stumonster]

Dr Chakratham said the ministry believes this economic crisis is worse than the one that hit Thailand in 1997.

this poor bloke is going to be counseled about speaking the truth.

[henryalleman]

At last, the cat is out of the bag. A further denial that Thailand will no be effected by the International financial crisis is not possible any more. If the ministry of health is monitoring the situation we can expect a MAJOR economic crisis in Thailand. certainly when they say it will be worse than 1997.

[Lorin]

At least someone thinking ahead and preparing for the impact of the crisis, so Un-Thai behavior...:-0

[Mai Krap]

It has been well known around the world for months that there is a ongoing economic crises. Anyone who does not believe Thailand will be dramatically impacted is simply fooling themselves. I do know people who look forward to the crises in order to take advantage but in the end nothing is worth the misery and suffering of women and children.

I believe this article has by definition "let the cat out of the bag" as far as what is going on behind closed doors in Bangkok. In some ways this country reminds me of Enron with a series of ministers playing the role of Ken Lay. First they pocket all the money they can and when the bad news comes they continue to tell the stockholders "Its All Good" till the lights go off.

I believe the good doctor will soon be taking a very long vacation or at minimum not giving any more interviews.

[wasabi]

I have been saying for months this may be the worst financial crisis Thailand has ever faced. These are global economic ripples that may take months to come to these shores but they will come. People can put their head in the sand or hide out on the top floor of Siam Paragon for a little while but the chickens are coming home to roost! When factories shut down and tourists snap their wallets shut their will be massive protests that may make the airport stand off look like a picnic!

I hope I'm wrong but I expect this to begin in earnest late spring.

[JetsetBkk]

...The surveillance committee is comprised of ...

<wince>

Still no English proof readers at The Nation, then.

[Bizz]

It has been well known around the world for months that there is a ongoing economic crises. Anyone who does not believe Thailand will be dramatically impacted is simply fooling themselves. I do know people who look forward to the crises in order to take advantage but in the end nothing is worth the misery and suffering of women and children.

I believe this article has by definition "let the cat out of the bag" as far as what is going on behind closed doors in Bangkok. In some ways this country reminds me of Enron with a series of ministers playing the role of Ken Lay. First they pocket all the money they can and when the bad news comes they continue to tell the stockholders "Its All Good" till the lights go off.

I believe the good doctor will soon be taking a very long vacation or at minimum not giving any more interviews.

I tend to agree in most of what you say but there is still hope there.

I see the states heading down the same rd as Japan in the 1980 stagnation.

USA still printing money.

Thailand is now better equipped to ride this out than in 1997 better infrastructure not to say there will not be high unemployment that is happening already the lull before the storm. This will last longer than 2011 at least till 2015.

[geriatrickid]

Although a laudable statement, I see it more as strategic positioning. As we all know, the budget grab for cash is on. The MoH is one of the biggest spenders and IMHO is trying to protect its turf as the military goes for more money. Not downplaying the seriousness of the MoH position, just that they have to scramble to protect the programs that could see funding vaporize in favour of shiny tanks and guns.

[Thailand]

I am afraid there will not be many smiles in the LOS in the coming months. The economic downturn and foot shooting have barely had an impact as of yet.

It is going to be very painful.

[coconutmonkey]

What does this mean for the average person?

What ways can the average person avoid any potential problems financially?

Do you think there will be any other issues for foriegners living in Thailand?

Any insights and advice would be well appreciated.

[Mai Krap]

What does this mean for the average person?

What ways can the average person avoid any potential problems financially?

Do you think there will be any other issues for foriegners living in Thailand?

Any insights and advice would be well appreciated.

There are Moms and Pops all over Bangkok that send money back to Grandma in the village to raise up their kids. When these folks loose their jobs they will be forced back into the villages with no money. The easy guess here is less jobs equals less money. Less money equals more misery which leads to higher crime, more drug use, more alcohol abuse, and more prostitution. More crime equals a more corrupt police force and military which will come back to haunt the people who are not effected by less money.

I'm surprised the usual suspects are not jumping up and down crying about how Thailand is not going to be effected by a economic down turn. Where are all the people who believe the economics of Thailand are performing well and the nation is heading in the right direction?

[Jingthing]

Well, it could be worse. Thailand produces enough food to feed its population. Not every country can do that. Clearly, a lot of the rural people now in Bangkok will go back to the farm.

[h90]

I have been saying for months this may be the worst financial crisis Thailand has ever faced. These are global economic ripples that may take months to come to these shores but they will come. People can put their head in the sand or hide out on the top floor of Siam Paragon for a little while but the chickens are coming home to roost! When factories shut down and tourists snap their wallets shut their will be massive protests that may make the airport stand off look like a picnic!

I hope I'm wrong but I expect this to begin in earnest late spring.

Why do you think of massive protests? I think people go back and work on the farm. Unless other countries Thailand has enough food and no winter, so not that bad.

[Samuian]

"The Crisis Whisperer"!

to follow soon...

[skettios]

At last, the cat is out of the bag. A further denial that Thailand will no be effected by the International financial crisis is not possible any more. If the ministry of health is monitoring the situation we can expect a MAJOR economic crisis in Thailand. certainly when they say it will be worse than 1997.

I don't know what you're on about.

The Bangkok Post and the Nation along with many other Thai new agencies have been talking about financial crisis for over two years now. Things were quite bad with prices going up everywhere last year about this time.

I can specifically remember the cost of rice skyrocketing right next to the cost of fuel.

Many government agencies have been talking about lost jobs, with more to come. It's been a nightly news story.

Who is denying it?

[livinthailandos]

I just have to write in on this. I am sure most of you are either retired, an employee, can't seem to be any of you running a business. You guys seem like doom and gloom if so go hide under a rock. Here's how I see the situation going.

1. I seen many economists speaking on various specials one on the bbc they had paul krugman, and people who lived threw many many recessions. The truth is we've never been an any real recession like this one ever.

2. Nobody knows when things will improve regardless of what anyone says.

3. Its gonna take thinking outside of the box, taking smart, stragetic risks, putting money where it should help most to see any improvement

4. Lets make sure protectionism don't start coming back on imports & exports

5. A few months ago in the UK they had an event hosting many foreign countries that were promoting for tourism, I'm sure everyone realizes whatever tourists there are they are seriously on the hunt for bargins. As of now we are already seeing them and I'm sure it will be like this all year to

6. I"ll relook this up, at one time I read there was about 800 million tourists, How I got this if you look at every country they get tourists, China, Thailand, Singapore, everywhere ( ok so not totally everywhere )

7. Tourists come in all classes from the backpacker to exetreme wealthy. So if people can travel or have the ability to travel they might after all who wants to spend an entire year being down and depressed

8. No countries are the same when compared to people with debt vs saving, after all look at Japan vs USA

USA have lots of consumer debt where as japan is the exact opposite, japanese, chinese save money ( subject to change though )

9. Regardless of who is laying off companies will survive based on how much debt they dont have, Amount of money in the bank.

10. There are always gonna be jobs that are recession proof, Doctors, nurses, police, teachers, basic everyday services, electric, phone, oil & gas.

11. People who keep complaining how this is bad as the depression didn't live through that area and have no real idea how bad times where back then.

ok this is getting long, just enjoy what you have while you have it. Be happy for the little things in life.

[Old Man River]

At last, the cat is out of the bag. A further denial that Thailand will no be effected by the International financial crisis is not possible any more. If the ministry of health is monitoring the situation we can expect a MAJOR economic crisis in Thailand. certainly when they say it will be worse than 1997.

I don't know what you're on about.

The Bangkok Post and the Nation along with many other Thai new agencies have been talking about financial crisis for over two years now. Things were quite bad with prices going up everywhere last year about this time.

I can specifically remember the cost of rice skyrocketing right next to the cost of fuel.

Many government agencies have been talking about lost jobs, with more to come. It's been a nightly news story.

Who is denying it?

I think the confusion is that originally the BOT Governor said that Thailand did not have very much direct exposure to the sub prime mortgage fiasco. That was a correct statement from a bank point of view (the BOT's domain), but some have taken it out of context and thought "the government" was saying that Thailand would not be affected by the economic collapse.

Then, there have been comments that Thailand wouldn't suffer as bad as some of its neighboring countries because with the PAD problems, Thailand didn't have as much growth (far less to be lost). Again this is true, but was taken out of context by some who thought it meant that Thailand wouldn't be hurt.

In 1997, the Thai banks were technically insolvent. Now, the banks in the US and several other countries are technically insolvent. This time around the problem is much deeper and all encompassing. It is much worse than 1997 and really few have actually been denying it. The emails I have been getting are pretty consistent in saying we are all in the toilet.

[geriatrickid]

There are Moms and Pops all over Bangkok that send money back to Grandma in the village to raise up their kids. When these folks loose their jobs they will be forced back into the villages with no money. The easy guess here is less jobs equals less money. Less money equals more misery which leads to higher crime, more drug use, more alcohol abuse, and more prostitution. More crime equals a more corrupt police force and military which will come back to haunt the people who are not effected by less money.

I'm surprised the usual suspects are not jumping up and down crying about how Thailand is not going to be effected by a economic down turn. Where are all the people who believe the economics of Thailand are performing well and the nation is heading in the right direction?

You summed it up quite well. If other countries are anything to go on, mental health issues will be a major issue. Parents abandoning families, domestic battery etc. There is an increase in reported suicide now as people living on the margins cannot cope with the loss of the "extras". The biggest fear is that underemployed youth usually get into trouble. That trouble is drugs, petty crime etc. We have all seen the Thais that buy the latest gadgets. Distractions for the masses as some might say. Take away the toys and junior gets restive.

[henryalleman]

Well, it could be worse. Thailand produces enough food to feed its population. Not every country can do that. Clearly, a lot of the rural people now in Bangkok will go back to the farm.

I think you have a simplistic view on the economy of Thailand. Not all 10 million of Bangkokians have family who are farmers, nor the people in Chiang Mai and the hundreds of other Thai towns. And farmers are already struggling to keep ends meet, not yet to mention that a lot of them can only survive by the money send home by their relatives who now lost their job, be it in Thailand or abroad. And you seems to ignore that a lot of Thai people are in deep debt. And by my knowledge not any bank will accept rice or vegetables to pay their loan back.

[h90]

I just have to write in on this. I am sure most of you are either retired, an employee, can't seem to be any of you running a business. You guys seem like doom and gloom if so go hide under a rock. Here's how I see the situation going.

1. I seen many economists speaking on various specials one on the bbc they had paul krugman, and people who lived threw many many recessions. The truth is we've never been an any real recession like this one ever.

2. Nobody knows when things will improve regardless of what anyone says.

3. Its gonna take thinking outside of the box, taking smart, stragetic risks, putting money where it should help most to see any improvement

4. Lets make sure protectionism don't start coming back on imports & exports

5. A few months ago in the UK they had an event hosting many foreign countries that were promoting for tourism, I'm sure everyone realizes whatever tourists there are they are seriously on the hunt for bargins. As of now we are already seeing them and I'm sure it will be like this all year to

6. I"ll relook this up, at one time I read there was about 800 million tourists, How I got this if you look at every country they get tourists, China, Thailand, Singapore, everywhere ( ok so not totally everywhere )

7. Tourists come in all classes from the backpacker to exetreme wealthy. So if people can travel or have the ability to travel they might after all who wants to spend an entire year being down and depressed

8. No countries are the same when compared to people with debt vs saving, after all look at Japan vs USA

USA have lots of consumer debt where as japan is the exact opposite, japanese, chinese save money ( subject to change though )

9. Regardless of who is laying off companies will survive based on how much debt they dont have, Amount of money in the bank.

10. There are always gonna be jobs that are recession proof, Doctors, nurses, police, teachers, basic everyday services, electric, phone, oil & gas.

11. People who keep complaining how this is bad as the depression didn't live through that area and have no real idea how bad times where back then.

ok this is getting long, just enjoy what you have while you have it. Be happy for the little things in life.

Well I am owner of a company (hydraulic seals). 1 or 2 years ago my wife started to change the company as good as possible to sufficiency economic, as she told she made already everything wrong in the 97 crises. Actually I didn't agree with everything, but I am now very happy that she did. Actually if the crises comes we have a good advantage against the competitors.

[dumball]

Well, it could be worse. Thailand produces enough food to feed its population. Not every country can do that. Clearly, a lot of the rural people now in Bangkok will go back to the farm.

I think you have a simplistic view on the economy of Thailand. Not all 10 million of Bangkokians have family who are farmers, nor the people in Chiang Mai and the hundreds of other Thai towns. And farmers are already struggling to keep ends meet, not yet to mention that a lot of them can only survive by the money send home by their relatives who now lost their job, be it in Thailand or abroad. And you seems to ignore that a lot of Thai people are in deep debt. And by my knowledge not any bank will accept rice or vegetables to pay their loan back.

I agree with this post wholeheartedly , these farmers whom it is noted will welcome and feed thier now broke and returning family members , are at this time at logerheads with the government over outstanding debt . There is only so much work available on any small-holding at the best of times , take into account the diminishing market of the people going back to thier own villages and what do you have ? Now maybe is the time for Thai farmers to truly understand why Monks/NGOs had been trying to convince them to get into self sufficiency programmes at no cost to them , just get off thier ass and get with the programme . Yes , I realise my type of open , up front honesty is not often appreciated , but you know what ? A spade is a SPADE no matter what colour any-one chooses to paint it , would that be red or yellow ?

I personally did not crow about all the money I dispensed to my extended family because of some mistaken belief in an historic legacy of what some term as 'Culture' , in many instances this only exascebates a situation of poverty when the golden goose becomes infertile . The cash blown on things impractical to an ailing buisiness , would have been far better used to upgrade agricultural methods as dispensed quite freely on TV farming posts , despite the squirming recipients thoughts and conviction that 'The old ways were best' , well now is thier day to prove to themselves and thier good donors , just how wrong thier philosophy both is and was . Not crowing , but my families growth into a self sustaining situation is now begining to show the benefits , thier hard and industrious work , not mine , are providing the fruits of thier labour , there is the key , industrious labour .

[chiangmaikelly]

Well, it could be worse. Thailand produces enough food to feed its population. Not every country can do that. Clearly, a lot of the rural people now in Bangkok will go back to the farm.

While this was true in the middle ages now food is part of the economy and is sold as a cash crop. Rice is bought and sold on the open market as are other food crops.

It makes no difference what a country grows if people have no money they don't eat.

[midas]

I just have to write in on this. I am sure most of you are either retired, an employee, can't seem to be any of you running a business. You guys seem like doom and gloom if so go hide under a rock. Here's how I see the situation going.

1. I seen many economists speaking on various specials one on the bbc they had paul krugman, and people who lived threw many many recessions. The truth

11. People who keep complaining how this is bad as the depression didn't live through that area and have no real idea how bad times where back then.

ok this is getting long, just enjoy what you have while you have it. Be happy for the little things in life.

livinthailandos

I would just like to respond to numbers 1 and 11 because the rest are your own thoughts.

Yes we have been through many recessions before because after all its only defined as " a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth."

It is as simple as that.

No mention of the bursting of one of the biggest credit and real estate bubbles in history. No mention either of an unprecedented loss

in trust and confidence of banks - " money makes the world go around " - the Times recently reported a huge increase in people

buying safes in which to keep their money instead of in the bank.

And people may not have lived through the previous depression but when they say " this is bad as the depression "

I believe they are referring to how profound the changes are going to be to our lives going forward as this continues to unfold-it's not a recession

it's a world changing event

[PaddyThai]

I live with my Thai wife in Ireland. There are about 50 Thai people in our city. They work and send some money home, typically to their farmer parents.

The value of the Baht against the Euro has meant that many of them send as little as possible, or no money, because they are waiting for the Baht to collapse.

The general view is that the Baht will fall eventually and you don't want to have just sent over a large sum.

I expect this phenonemon multiplied by Thais all over the world must have a negative affect on the Thai rural economy.

[tmwke]

What does this mean for the average person?

What ways can the average person avoid any potential problems financially?

Do you think there will be any other issues for foriegners living in Thailand?

Any insights and advice would be well appreciated.

There are Moms and Pops all over Bangkok that send money back to Grandma in the village to raise up their kids. When these folks loose their jobs they will be forced back into the villages with no money. The easy guess here is less jobs equals less money. Less money equals more misery which leads to higher crime, more drug use, more alcohol abuse, and more prostitution. More crime equals a more corrupt police force and military which will come back to haunt the people who are not effected by less money.

I'm surprised the usual suspects are not jumping up and down crying about how Thailand is not going to be effected by a economic down turn. Where are all the people who believe the economics of Thailand are performing well and the nation is heading in the right direction?

You dont have to worry the Hi So Thais and the 16 Familys who rule Thailand will i am sure spread there absurd wealth amongst the poor 80% Also the price of condiminiums will go up this year !

[catmac]

I have been saying for months this may be the worst financial crisis Thailand has ever faced. These are global economic ripples that may take months to come to these shores but they will come. People can put their head in the sand or hide out on the top floor of Siam Paragon for a little while but the chickens are coming home to roost! When factories shut down and tourists snap their wallets shut their will be massive protests that may make the airport stand off look like a picnic!

I hope I'm wrong but I expect this to begin in earnest late spring.

Why do you think of massive protests? I think people go back and work on the farm. Unless other countries Thailand has enough food and no winter, so not that bad.

I rather think h90, that you hope that they will all return peacefully to their farms!

However, as the Chinese Government is predicting massive social unrest following the huge numbers of rural immigrants losing their jobs as the economy and manufacturing contract - so massive that they are scared for the future of the Party - I fail to see why Thailand should once again be immune from this problem. And don't think that the rural Thais are so stupid that they can't see who helped the collapse by shooting the golden goose of tourism in the foot (or should I say in the Airport!)

Sure, the North will survive - increasingly poor, but at least able to feed themselves. For the rich Burgers of BKK, I forsee some interesting times ahead!