Us Dollar Came To The Gunfight With A Knife

[Harmonica]

So will the dollar crash and burn in the near or distant future?

Don't know and don't think anybody knows for sure.

The best decisions made are the ones made based on data available in present time - some thought can be given to future possibilities, much more thought to the past, esp. the distant past, but the backbone of the decision is in the here and now.

The US Dollar trend is currently UP!!!! That's all that's important for now.

TREND mechanics 101:

(1) The trend can reverse at any time without warning.

(2) The extant Trend tends to continue.

[Harmonica]

Short-term traders watch 84.43 on the US Dollar Index - a daily close below this means we go into a downwave correction. If occurs, protect LONG profits esp. in short EURUSD, the $'s near 100% correlated twin, my bread and butter trading pair.

If you want to be really slick, plug in a trendline on the daily chart rally of DX

---------------------

Longer-term traders, please continue to snore with detached mirth.

[Harmonica]

Short-term traders watch 84.43 on the US Dollar Index - a daily close below this means we go into a downwave correction. If occurs, protect LONG profits esp. in short EURUSD, the $'s near 100% correlated twin, my bread and butter trading pair.

If you want to be really slick, plug in a trendline on the daily chart rally of DX

---------------------

Longer-term traders, please continue to snore with detached mirth.

See chart. The slick Trendline still intact and still very, very important. Long is the way to be with one eye on the clues below.

Additional clues as to where the probabilities might generate the correction.

89.95 or if higher, then 90.86

and getting even more slick, lokking at $Yen for additional confirmation, @ 99.32 or if higher, 100.55

[lannarebirth]

Short-term traders watch 84.43 on the US Dollar Index - a daily close below this means we go into a downwave correction. If occurs, protect LONG profits esp. in short EURUSD, the $'s near 100% correlated twin, my bread and butter trading pair.

If you want to be really slick, plug in a trendline on the daily chart rally of DX

---------------------

Longer-term traders, please continue to snore with detached mirth.

See chart. The slick Trendline still intact and still very, very important. Long is the way to be with one eye on the clues below.

Additional clues as to where the probabilities might generate the correction.

89.95 or if higher, then 90.86

and getting even more slick, lokking at $Yen for additional confirmation, @ 99.32 or if higher, 100.55

Here's the chart that guides $USD moves:

[Harmonica]

Short-term traders watch 84.43 on the US Dollar Index - a daily close below this means we go into a downwave correction. If occurs, protect LONG profits esp. in short EURUSD, the $'s near 100% correlated twin, my bread and butter trading pair.

If you want to be really slick, plug in a trendline on the daily chart rally of DX

---------------------

Longer-term traders, please continue to snore with detached mirth.

See chart. The slick Trendline still intact and still very, very important. Long is the way to be with one eye on the clues below.

Additional clues as to where the probabilities might generate the correction.

89.95 or if higher, then 90.86

and getting even more slick, lokking at $Yen for additional confirmation, @ 99.32 or if higher, 100.55

-----------------------------------------

yep, textbook play.

$Yen hint was right on the money, $Index hint just a tad shy of target.

But the trendline break indicated was the real ADIOS amigo.

Edited March 12, 2009 by Harmonica

[Harmonica]

Sterling had better get some kind of rally going now while the Dollar Index corrects.

I count 5 waves down in GBPUSD since July 15, so therefore we should get a nice decent a-b-c upward move. Thus far Sterling has given only the "a" and the "b" parts. So where the heck is the "c" part? She's got to generate this asap to save her own life or at least to buy herself some more survival time.

The current Low at 1.3503 is supremely important

[Hairy]

So, are you saying the GBP must rally against the dollar soon if it doesn't want to collapse entirely, or are you saying that the GBP should rally against the dollar in the near term because of technical indicators? I assume you're looking at it in terms of Elliot Wave theory, which I know nothing about other than the fact of its existence.

I have some skin in that game (short FXB), although right now most of my money (at least what little is in play, perhaps 20%) is riding the uptrend on U.S. financial stocks and the broader market (FAS, SSO) starting since last Friday (03/06/09). I see this as a near-term play, for no more than a few weeks before the market is no longer "oversold", with a top between 7800-9000 (more likely on the low end).

Long term, I think the Dow will head back down to the 5000 range due to the collapse of CRE, triggering more bank troubles, causing far more serious economic damage than has already occurred. That will trigger pension fund implosions, resulting in widespread bankruptcies among the S&P 500 companies, resulting in a collapse to between 2100-3500 depending on whom you believe.

Right now, I'm just enjoying the uptrend and waiting to reload my shorts again (serious brown trousers time! ) on major CRE REITs like VNO and SPG, which should end up as zeroes if I've read the tea leaves correctly, and when Capricorn is in Uranus (or at least the economy's).

[Harmonica]

So, are you saying the GBP must rally against the dollar soon if it doesn't want to collapse entirely, or are you saying that the GBP should rally against the dollar in the near term because of technical indicators? I assume you're looking at it in terms of Elliot Wave theory, which I know nothing about other than the fact of its existence.

Both!

But there is one other reason why GBP should rally and it has nothing to do with charts or elliottwave or tealeaves.

So many anal-ysts have pronounced GBP as a goner that that in and of itself is sufficient reason to believe that GBP will do the opposite, i.e. shine - at least in the short-term. This approach to market analysis is called Sentiment Study and reveals that after prolonged one-sided action the herd projects the extant move to infinity and is almost always stampeded aka wrong. Put another way, the herd buys market tops and sells market bottoms - they should be doing the exact opposite.

A corollary of this is that a wildebeast will never congratulate a lion after the latter has made a kill! Tons of evidence here at Thaivisa!!

[Harmonica]

Sterling had better get some kind of rally going now while the Dollar Index corrects.

I count 5 waves down in GBPUSD since July 15, so therefore we should get a nice decent a-b-c upward move. Thus far Sterling has given only the "a" and the "b" parts. So where the heck is the "c" part? She's got to generate this asap to save her own life or at least to buy herself some more survival time.

The current Low at 1.3503 is supremely important

-----------------------------------------

>>>> So where the heck is the "c" part? <<<<<

Its underway, baby.

Where will Sterling go? Let's see if she can get to 1.4936. Then we'll talk further.

If Britmaveric has never seen a Euro$ hard-on, he should have a look at EURUSD - a male elephant in musk!!!

[Harmonica]

Sterling had better get some kind of rally going now while the Dollar Index corrects.

I count 5 waves down in GBPUSD since July 15, so therefore we should get a nice decent a-b-c upward move. Thus far Sterling has given only the "a" and the "b" parts. So where the heck is the "c" part? She's got to generate this asap to save her own life or at least to buy herself some more survival time.

The current Low at 1.3503 is supremely important

-----------------------------------------

>>>> So where the heck is the "c" part? <<<<<

Its underway, baby.

Where will Sterling go? Let's see if she can get to 1.4936. Then we'll talk further.

If Britmaveric has never seen a Euro$ hard-on, he should have a look at EURUSD - a male elephant in musk!!!

-------------------------------------------

The Sterling rally - it sure is underway, baby

That is the wave "C" component I mentioned.

I'm satisfied with my call/question for why there had to be a rally.

As long as she can stay above the trendline from March 11 she could go further, much further.

However, if the trendine breaks, be sure that George Soros and Harmonica will SHORT Sterling like there is no tomorrow. Its not personal.

If she goes below the number mentioned near top of screen, 1.3503, worldwide SHORTS will pile in, especially Goldman Sachs.

But right now she is safe as long as she keeps rallying.

Church and prayer, not war is the ticket for Brits at this juncture.

[Harmonica]

So, are you saying the GBP must rally against the dollar soon if it doesn't want to collapse entirely, or are you saying that the GBP should rally against the dollar in the near term because of technical indicators? I assume you're looking at it in terms of Elliot Wave theory, which I know nothing about other than the fact of its existence.

Both!

But there is one other reason why GBP should rally and it has nothing to do with charts or elliottwave or tealeaves.

So many anal-ysts have pronounced GBP as a goner that that in and of itself is sufficient reason to believe that GBP will do the opposite, i.e. shine - at least in the short-term. This approach to market analysis is called Sentiment Study and reveals that after prolonged one-sided action the herd projects the extant move to infinity and is almost always stampeded aka wrong. Put another way, the herd buys market tops and sells market bottoms - they should be doing the exact opposite.

A corollary of this is that a wildebeast will never congratulate a lion after the latter has made a kill! Tons of evidence here at Thaivisa!!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

>>>> So many anal-ysts have pronounced GBP as a goner that that in and of itself is sufficient reason to believe that GBP will do the opposite, i.e. shine - at least in the short-term. <<<<<<<

There you have it - SENTIMENT study showed the likely road for Sterling.

[CaptainARK1]

Sterling had better get some kind of rally going now while the Dollar Index corrects.

I count 5 waves down in GBPUSD since July 15, so therefore we should get a nice decent a-b-c upward move. Thus far Sterling has given only the "a" and the "b" parts. So where the heck is the "c" part? She's got to generate this asap to save her own life or at least to buy herself some more survival time.

The current Low at 1.3503 is supremely important

-----------------------------------------

>>>> So where the heck is the "c" part? <<<<<

Its underway, baby.

Where will Sterling go? Let's see if she can get to 1.4936. Then we'll talk further.

If Britmaveric has never seen a Euro$ hard-on, he should have a look at EURUSD - a male elephant in musk!!!

-------------------------------------------

The Sterling rally - it sure is underway, baby

That is the wave "C" component I mentioned.

I'm satisfied with my call/question for why there had to be a rally.

As long as she can stay above the trendline from March 11 she could go further, much further.

However, if the trendine breaks, be sure that George Soros and Harmonica will SHORT Sterling like there is no tomorrow. Its not personal.

If she goes below the number mentioned near top of screen, 1.3503, worldwide SHORTS will pile in, especially Goldman Sachs.

But right now she is safe as long as she keeps rallying.

Church and prayer, not war is the ticket for Brits at this juncture.

"As long as she can stay above the trendline from March 11 she could go further, much further"

Correct. The trendline has pretty much guaranteed that Sterling would keep going up since March. Thus far there were no threats to this trendline collapsing. Sterling has been safe and it was not prudent to bet against her.

Today, August 12 is the first time that the line is threatened in any meaningful manner. So can one conclude that Sterling's rally is finished?

No! Not yet.

But while waiting for definite word on the daily timeframe, we're already Short Sterling/USD (GBPUSD) on 60-min.

Short position's STOP loss at 1.6548

(((Daily chart significant points at which I believe Goldman Sachs will pull the trigger and take Sterling into deep ocean either via GBPUSD or GBPJPY (both pairs are also my preferred trading vehicles):

1.6366

1.6052)))

---------------------

[CaptainARK1]

Short-term traders watch 84.43 on the US Dollar Index - a daily close below this means we go into a downwave correction. If occurs, protect LONG profits esp. in short EURUSD, the $'s near 100% correlated twin, my bread and butter trading pair.

If you want to be really slick, plug in a trendline on the daily chart rally of DX

---------------------

Longer-term traders, please continue to snore with detached mirth.

See chart. The slick Trendline still intact and still very, very important. Long is the way to be with one eye on the clues below.

Additional clues as to where the probabilities might generate the correction.

89.95 or if higher, then 90.86

and getting even more slick, lokking at $Yen for additional confirmation, @ 99.32 or if higher, 100.55

-----------------------------------------

yep, textbook play.

$Yen hint was right on the money, $Index hint just a tad shy of target.

But the trendline break indicated was the real ADIOS amigo.

---------------------------

The trendline break called it correctly.

Is the correction over? And if it is over, has the dollar bull come out of 5-month hibernation?

I am calling the bottom with only a 65% probability shot. Will go to 95% if 79.52 and 81.12 are taken out and the $Index moves up for at least 3 days out of the range of the breakout bars above these numbers. Only then will the probability be high that we have an intermediate bottom.

If this thinking turns out to be right it will be a huge reward for early trend surfers because the next upwave is either wave 3 or C. No difference in either - both suggest a rapid price movement northbound.

So during this uncertainty, we go undergound into realtime - 60-min. I'm already LONG the $ via SHORT Sterling$ aka GBPUSD

[Old Croc]

Is it normal to descibe the sterling in the feminine?

Or is it just one thing Harmonica (banned) and CaptainARK have in common?

[myfriendu]

looks like stop loss was hit and index going south,dont know what to make of it,bad numbers out today uk and it goes up,big news out today.fomc news out later,but i will be asleep,china holding record dollars cant see them let dollar die,,these days the markets are too messed up to go with the fundies,and you might as well just trade the charts,maybe tomorrow it will all change again.

[myfriendu]

see what happens in a few minutes,looks like these guys are flushing out all the shorts,before the news,im staying out ,if the fed says we stop buying bonds and raze intrest rates,dollar going get stronger,who knows,they do what they want

[flying]

Is it normal to descibe the sterling in the feminine?

Or is it just one thing Harmonica (banned) and CaptainARK have in common?

[CaptainARK1]

Sterling had better get some kind of rally going now while the Dollar Index corrects.

I count 5 waves down in GBPUSD since July 15, so therefore we should get a nice decent a-b-c upward move. Thus far Sterling has given only the "a" and the "b" parts. So where the heck is the "c" part? She's got to generate this asap to save her own life or at least to buy herself some more survival time.

The current Low at 1.3503 is supremely important

-----------------------------------------

>>>> So where the heck is the "c" part? <<<<<

Its underway, baby.

Where will Sterling go? Let's see if she can get to 1.4936. Then we'll talk further.

If Britmaveric has never seen a Euro$ hard-on, he should have a look at EURUSD - a male elephant in musk!!!

-------------------------------------------

The Sterling rally - it sure is underway, baby

That is the wave "C" component I mentioned.

I'm satisfied with my call/question for why there had to be a rally.

As long as she can stay above the trendline from March 11 she could go further, much further.

However, if the trendine breaks, be sure that George Soros and Harmonica will SHORT Sterling like there is no tomorrow. Its not personal.

If she goes below the number mentioned near top of screen, 1.3503, worldwide SHORTS will pile in, especially Goldman Sachs.

But right now she is safe as long as she keeps rallying.

Church and prayer, not war is the ticket for Brits at this juncture.

"As long as she can stay above the trendline from March 11 she could go further, much further"

Correct. The trendline has pretty much guaranteed that Sterling would keep going up since March. Thus far there were no threats to this trendline collapsing. Sterling has been safe and it was not prudent to bet against her.

Today, August 12 is the first time that the line is threatened in any meaningful manner. So can one conclude that Sterling's rally is finished?

No! Not yet.

But while waiting for definite word on the daily timeframe, we're already Short Sterling/USD (GBPUSD) on 60-min.

Short position's STOP loss at 1.6548

(((Daily chart significant points at which I believe Goldman Sachs will pull the trigger and take Sterling into deep ocean either via GBPUSD or GBPJPY (both pairs are also my preferred trading vehicles):

1.6366

1.6052)))

---------------------

Short position's STOP loss at 1.6548

Stop was triggered. Position was auto-closed. Profitable? Yes

-----------------------------------------------

New Short position for GBPUSD @ 1.6460 plugged in. Not triggered yet. Will try to tighten this for a better entry if possible.

[CaptainARK1]

GBPUSD short trade is in my main thread, so will not be taking it up here again. But it is accelerating into the green.

To honor you H, in the same tradition, only major DAILY chart Dollar Index reversal calls will be posted here.

None yet.

[flying]

To honor you H, in the same tradition