Thailand Exports In Record Slump

[LaoPo]

Thailand exports in record slump

Thailand's exports slumped by more than a quarter in May - a record fall - as demand for Thai goods overseas continued to drop during the downturn.

Exports fell by 26.6% compared with a year earlier, to $11.7bn (£7.1bn). Imports dropped by 34.7% to $9.3bn.

"Exports to key markets were all lower due to weak demand and intensifying competition," the government said.

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

"It is less likely there will be a strong rebound in Thai exports in the near future as demand for imports of raw materials has not picked up yet," said Suara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered Bank.

The Asian economy has been hit hard by the global economic downturn but also by political unrest at the end of 2008.

-- BBC June 19 - 2009

LaoPo

[ratcatcher]

Thailand exports in record slump

Thailand's exports slumped by more than a quarter in May - a record fall - as demand for Thai goods overseas continued to drop during the downturn.

Exports fell by 26.6% compared with a year earlier, to $11.7bn (£7.1bn). Imports dropped by 34.7% to $9.3bn.

"Exports to key markets were all lower due to weak demand and intensifying competition," the government said.

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

"It is less likely there will be a strong rebound in Thai exports in the near future as demand for imports of raw materials has not picked up yet," said Suara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered Bank.

The Asian economy has been hit hard by the global economic downturn but also by political unrest at the end of 2008.

-- BBC June 19 - 2009

LaoPo

No pompem, tourism will carry the day. Hordes of tourists just scrambling to visit the L.O.S.

Edited June 19, 2009 by ratcatcher

[Thaddeus]

Does this mean that tourism will now make up more than the reported 6% of the GDP........ sorry, silly me, that's in the toilet as well isn't it.

[jumnien]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

[Theyreallrubbish]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

So the Thais buying even less than other countries somehow puts them ahead of the game?

You know Russia had a huge trade surplus during the years its economy was in meltdown after the end of communism. I doubt most Russians who saw their living standards fall by 70% would have thought they were ahead of the game.

Don't let false national competition cloud your judgement. The only purpose of an economy is to provide a higher standard of living to the majority of its people. Interpret any statistics you read through this filter.

[jumnien]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

[Theyreallrubbish]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

Too true.

I nearly got a job in Qatar. High per capita GDP but definitely not so sanook

[mommysboy]

Thailand exports in record slump

Thailand's exports slumped by more than a quarter in May - a record fall - as demand for Thai goods overseas continued to drop during the downturn.

Exports fell by 26.6% compared with a year earlier, to $11.7bn (£7.1bn). Imports dropped by 34.7% to $9.3bn.

"Exports to key markets were all lower due to weak demand and intensifying competition," the government said.

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

"It is less likely there will be a strong rebound in Thai exports in the near future as demand for imports of raw materials has not picked up yet," said Suara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered Bank.

The Asian economy has been hit hard by the global economic downturn but also by political unrest at the end of 2008.

-- BBC June 19 - 2009

LaoPo

I notice less and less nutter postings about sufficiency and Thais meekly, and gratefully going back to till the land.

There's worse to come, as Thailand has now tarnished it's image and the strong bt. has caused buyers to take a long hard look at value for money.

Terrible figures! now regular month on month!

[mommysboy]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

No, but they probably were after value for money and a degree of safety. Nowadays it's Slumland at farang prices.

So, you are talking rubbish really!

[BusyBee123]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

the imports are used to make the goods to export! no imports nothing to make, no work for the thai people....

[jumnien]

All work and no play makes Somchai a dull boy!

[LaoPo]

Thai Exports Tumble Most in 17 Years; Drop May Ease

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana

June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s exports fell the most since at least 1992 in May as the global recession eroded demand for products. The decline may moderate as manufacturers buy more parts to ship abroad.

Shipments dropped 26.6 percent from a year earlier to $11.7 billion, the Commerce Ministry’s Permanent Secretary Siripol Yodmuangcharoen said. That’s the steepest slide since Bloomberg began tracking the data and compares with a 26.1 percent contraction in April. Imports retreated the least in six months.

“The decline has stabilized and, looking at other economic indicators, exports may improve,” said Nuchjarin Panarode, an economist at Capital Nomura Securities Pcl in Bangkok, adding she expected the magnitude of the contraction.

The slide in shipments, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, may ease in the coming months as manufacturers including Hana Microelectronics Pcl and KCE Electronics Pcl ship more products. Thailand’s industrial output fell the least in five months in April as exporters’ customers started rebuilding stockpiles in anticipation of improving demand.

Imports fell 34.7 percent to $9.25 billion as manufacturers bought more components used to build exports. The drop follows a 36.3 percent slide in April. The trade surplus in May widened to $2.41 billion from a $595 million excess a month earlier.

‘Light at the End’

Thailand’s SET Index of stocks climbed 3.3 percent in Bangkok, trimming its weekly loss to 6.3 percent. The baht was little changed at 34.16 against the dollar.

A pickup in export orders boosted manufacturing output in April, Amara Sriphayak, a Bank of Thailand official, said on May 29. Richard Han, chief executive officer at Hana, said the same day that demand had accelerated in May from April.

“We are still walking in a tunnel but we have started to see the light at the end,” said Kanit Sangsubhan, director of the Finance Ministry’s research institute and a Bank of Thailand board member. “Demand from China and the rest of Asia will help our exports.”

“We don’t think it will worsen the economy in the second quarter because imports remain low, which will be positive for net exports,” said Capital Nomura’s Nuchjarin.

Thailand’s economy shrank 7.1 percent in the first quarter after a collapse in exports. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on June 9 “the worst is behind us” and he expects GDP will return to annual growth in 2010.

Exports may contract between 15 percent to 19 percent this year, Siripol said today. Shipments may continue to decline in the third quarter and return to growth in the last three months of 2009, he said.

Last Updated: June 19, 2009 05:43 EDT

-Bloomberg

LaoPo

[catmac]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

the imports are used to make the goods to export! no imports nothing to make, no work for the thai people....

Exactly! Thailand actually manufactures very little; what it does do is assemble parts imported from foreign manufacturers and then export most of them as the finished article. Take the Honda plant in Thailand as an example. Very little of what goes into a Honda car is really made here, the engine, drive assembly, electronics, etc., are all imported from Japan or other factories in Asia and the Thai workers just assemble them to make the finished car.

The figures for imports are, therefore, the most worrying. Assuming that the strong Baht has made many consumer imports more appealing (e.g a litre of reasonable Scotch whisky is now less than 400 Baht in Lotus!), and that their total is actually increasing, then the drop in "raw materials" imports that go into the assembly plants (and become next month's exports) must be even more alarming.

[AleG]

Thai Exports Tumble Most in 17 Years; Drop May Ease “We are still walking in a tunnel but we have started to see the light at the end,” said Kanit Sangsubhan, director of the Finance Ministry’s research institute and a Bank of Thailand board member. “Demand from China and the rest of Asia will help our exports.”

“We don’t think it will worsen the economy in the second quarter because imports remain low, which will be positive for net exports,” said Capital Nomura’s Nuchjarin.

You know, sometimes the light at the other end of the tunnel is a speeding train coming your way...

[cmsally]

Thai Exports Tumble Most in 17 Years; Drop May Ease “We are still walking in a tunnel but we have started to see the light at the end,” said Kanit Sangsubhan, director of the Finance Ministry’s research institute and a Bank of Thailand board member. “Demand from China and the rest of Asia will help our exports.”

“We don’t think it will worsen the economy in the second quarter because imports remain low, which will be positive for net exports,” said Capital Nomura’s Nuchjarin.

You know, sometimes the light at the other end of the tunnel is a speeding train coming your way...

Quite right.

I would say the drop in imports reflects less jobs as said above. The drop in imports will probably lead to another successive larger drop in exports.

[awayfoe]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

Too true.

I nearly got a job in Qatar. High per capita GDP but definitely not so sanook

n'est pas? in french n est ce pas

rgds

[chiang mai]

And just to balance things, another article from the same source:

A strong rebound for the region is likely in the second half of this year as stimulus measures start to take effect, according to Prakiti Sofat, an economist with HSBC.

A likely turnaround of the global economy due to pump-priming measures will provide a positive backdrop for Asia. Most countries are expected to start benefiting in the second half from economic stimulus plans put in place late last year.

China's gigantic fiscal stimulus spending of US$586 billion will spill over to regional trade.

Beijing's policy to promote the increased use of electrical appliances in rural households has already benefited producers such as Thailand and the Philippines directly, Dr Sofat said.

China will have ample room to increase fiscal stimulus for the next year, given public debt at just 20% of gross domestic product.

China's domestic consumption is currently too low and has room to grow significantly, she said.

"China's government has an extremely powerful role in spending. The fact that a large portion of the stimulus was directed to health and education will reduce precautionary savings," Dr Sofat said yesterday at a briefing in Bangkok.

She said China has also helped to bolster confidence in the world economy.

"The slowdown of the Chinese economy did not totally reflect the US economic recession. Actually, it was partly engineered by the People's Bank of China to stem excessive investment," Dr Sofat said.

Home sales and consumption were positive indicators for a recovery to 2% economic growth in the US in 2010, on par with projected global economic growth. In Asia, manufacturing and confidence have been positive indicators.

"We are at the bottom of a V-shaped recovery. Asian economies are [seen as] rebounding very sharply starting in the second half of this year and into 2010," Dr Sofat said.She said that inflationary pressure was likely to pick up late this year as oil and commodity prices have begun to increase.

The Bank of Thailand along with other regional central banks is likely to start increasing interest rates in the second half of 2010.

In Thailand, Dr Sofat said 10% growth of manufacturing in the first quarter would contribute significantly to economic growth in this year. Manufacturing contracted severely late last year.

HSBC does not see the increase in Thai public debt due to 800 billion baht worth of additional government borrowing as a cause for concern. Local policymakers had successfully reduced public debt that had soared after the 1997 economic crisis, she said.

[PoorSucker]

Just increase the prices.

That way the net result will be the same.

[hammered]

Talking to people who work around the industrial estates of the East you get the following anecdotal stuff:

Virtually nobody has O/T unless it is unpaid right now. This has meant some workers hve had to resign and return "home" because with no O/T they cannot afford to live.

Everything was worse around the turn of the year when sub-contract workers were laid off, O/T diappeared and bonuses didnt come through and companies closed. Orders were then running at around 50% or even less of the previous year. Nobody felt safe. Even HR staff who had finished the lay offs were then being laid off themsleves.

In June there was a greater feeling of security based on orders picking up. Up to 80% of the previous year, and due to so many people having left companies already. Orders from UK and US weak. Orders from EU and Asia stronger. Obviosly oreders are for the future and wont impact in June or something but do create some work.

All anecdotal of course.

[Motoon]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

the imports are used to make the goods to export! no imports nothing to make, no work for the thai people....

Exactly! Thailand actually manufactures very little; what it does do is assemble parts imported from foreign manufacturers and then export most of them as the finished article. Take the Honda plant in Thailand as an example. Very little of what goes into a Honda car is really made here, the engine, drive assembly, electronics, etc., are all imported from Japan or other factories in Asia and the Thai workers just assemble them to make the finished car.

It's a bit simplified. A strong contributor to decreased industrial imports is the fact that most companies in the electronic and similar fields had to correct stocks. At the start of 2008 stocks for raw materials and components were kept high due long delivery terms, whereas almost no orders were placed at the end of 2008. Companies are cleaning their stocks out and still export some finished goods, although at reduced quantities. In the industry I'm surveying I've seen program reductions of up to 40%. However there are signs that business is picking up a little - see Hana f.e. - and that the actual situation might improve a bit. Having said that one must be aware that it will take deep into 2010 to bring the industry back to a "normal" state. Unfortunately Thailand has made a bucket full of strategic errors and sent the wrong signals into the world. Consequently some industries feel more comfortable to establish their Production Centers/Regional HQ somewhere else -> see Ford a.o.

[Motoon]

Talking to people who work around the industrial estates of the East you get the following anecdotal stuff:

Virtually nobody has O/T unless it is unpaid right now. This has meant some workers hve had to resign and return "home" because with no O/T they cannot afford to live.

Everything was worse around the turn of the year when sub-contract workers were laid off, O/T diappeared and bonuses didnt come through and companies closed. Orders were then running at around 50% or even less of the previous year. Nobody felt safe. Even HR staff who had finished the lay offs were then being laid off themsleves.

In June there was a greater feeling of security based on orders picking up. Up to 80% of the previous year, and due to so many people having left companies already. Orders from UK and US weak. Orders from EU and Asia stronger. Obviosly oreders are for the future and wont impact in June or something but do create some work.

All anecdotal of course.

I think this is pretty accurate. That's the picture I've perceived as well.

[chiang mai]

Thailand exports in record slump

Thailand's exports slumped by more than a quarter in May - a record fall - as demand for Thai goods overseas continued to drop during the downturn.

Exports fell by 26.6% compared with a year earlier, to $11.7bn (£7.1bn). Imports dropped by 34.7% to $9.3bn.

"Exports to key markets were all lower due to weak demand and intensifying competition," the government said.

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

"It is less likely there will be a strong rebound in Thai exports in the near future as demand for imports of raw materials has not picked up yet," said Suara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered Bank.

The Asian economy has been hit hard by the global economic downturn but also by political unrest at the end of 2008.

-- BBC June 19 - 2009

LaoPo

I notice less and less nutter postings about sufficiency and Thais meekly, and gratefully going back to till the land.

There's worse to come, as Thailand has now tarnished it's image and the strong bt. has caused buyers to take a long hard look at value for money.

Terrible figures! now regular month on month!

I'm not sure that anyone has made the self sufficiency claim but certainly workers returning home outside of any economic safety net is very much the norm - see posts further down this page for further anecdotal evidence. And just to keep things in perspective, the fall in exports is year on year!

But these things are comparative, so the question is whether we view the fall in exports in isolation or whether we compare it to economic indicators in other countries such as the UK, if we do that what do we compare against? Do we compare it against the 2.2 million unemployed and rising, or perhaps against the level of government debt and quantitative easing, 150 bill and rising - maybe we just compare exports against exports, hmm. I guess the message here is that it's important to view these things in context and not in isolation, if you want to see an accurate picture.

[Jai Dee]

Export likely to shrink by as much as 19%

Thailand's exports will likely contract by 15-19 per cent this year, as May shipments dropped another 26.6 per cent year on year, says the Commerce Ministry.

This latest projection is in sharp contrast to the previous target of zero to 3-per-cent export growth, as the May figures represent a seventh consecutive month of declines.

Shipments dropped to a combined value of US$11.65 billion (Bt398 billion), the lowest in more than a decade.

Commerce Ministry permanent secretary Siripol Yodmuang-charoen said the downtrend resulted from the global economic recession and increased protectionism in key markets.

US and Chinese campaigns for their citizens to buy only local products have also made it more difficult to boost Thai exports, he explained.

Other negative factors include rising global oil prices and the baht's appreciation.

Siripol said the government would cut some import tariffs on raw materials for the electronics and automobile industries while making available a packing-credit injection for exporters in 25 potential markets.

There will also be a buyer's credit facility to promote sales of Thai goods.

Siripol said exports would likely continue their decline until the third quarter. Shipments could return to positive growth in the fourth quarter if the global economy recovers.

Exports in the first five months fell 22.95 per cent year on year to $55.8 billion. May imports plunged 34.7 per cent year on year to $9.25 billion.

However, Thailand logged a trade surplus of $2.4 billion last month, while the trade surplus in the first five months reached $10.54 billion.

May figures showed exports dropped across the board, with the farm sector down 26.9 per cent and the industrial sector 25.2 per cent.

Department of Export Promotion director-general Rachane Potjanasuntorn said May's exports had dropped largely because consumers were being cautious. In addition, exporters and foreign buyers have liquidity problems.

-- The Nation 2009-06-20

[Lancelot]

US and Chinese campaigns for their citizens to buy only local products have also made it more difficult to boost Thai exports, he explained.

Begining to look eerily similar to the protectionism that occured during the Great Depression

[MJP]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

No, but they probably were after value for money and a degree of safety. Nowadays it's Slumland at farang prices.

So, you are talking rubbish really!

Have to agree with this. Last time I was in a 'destination' area of the Eastern Seaboard it was 'orrible and 'xspensive.

Koh Samet was just awful.

Hopefully this recession will at least take some of the pressure off the environment and things will improve. Who knows?

[neverdie]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

No, but they probably were after value for money and a degree of safety. Nowadays it's Slumland at farang prices.

So, you are talking rubbish really!

Have to agree with this. Last time I was in a 'destination' area of the Eastern Seaboard it was 'orrible and 'xspensive.

Koh Samet was just awful.

Hopefully this recession will at least take some of the pressure off the environment and things will improve. Who knows?

MJP, Sounds more like wishful thinking to me.

[Priceless]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

the imports are used to make the goods to export! no imports nothing to make, no work for the thai people....

Exactly! Thailand actually manufactures very little; what it does do is assemble parts imported from foreign manufacturers and then export most of them as the finished article. Take the Honda plant in Thailand as an example. Very little of what goes into a Honda car is really made here, the engine, drive assembly, electronics, etc., are all imported from Japan or other factories in Asia and the Thai workers just assemble them to make the finished car.

The figures for imports are, therefore, the most worrying. Assuming that the strong Baht has made many consumer imports more appealing (e.g a litre of reasonable Scotch whisky is now less than 400 Baht in Lotus!), and that their total is actually increasing, then the drop in "raw materials" imports that go into the assembly plants (and become next month's exports) must be even more alarming.

Have you got a source for this? When I look at the Bank of Thailand statistics it surely doesn't look that way. I picked the month of May 2008 to have a recent and "normal" (i.e. pre-recession) month. For that month the import value of "Vehicles and parts" was 424 MUSD, whereas the export value of "Vehicles, parts and accessories" was 1,534 MUSD. Add to that the value of "Vehicles, parts and accessories" that are sold domestically, and it seems that the import content is rather low. (Source: http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Ec...ionalTrade.aspx )

The above also fits in with my (admittedly erratic) memory telling me that there must, according to regulations, be a very high proportion (70-80% ?) of domestically produced parts to avoid the product being taxed as "imported". This would also explain why even cars that are imported as CKD (Completely Knocked Down) kits are taxed far and above domestically produced cars.

/ Priceless

[chiang mai]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

the imports are used to make the goods to export! no imports nothing to make, no work for the thai people....

Exactly! Thailand actually manufactures very little; what it does do is assemble parts imported from foreign manufacturers and then export most of them as the finished article. Take the Honda plant in Thailand as an example. Very little of what goes into a Honda car is really made here, the engine, drive assembly, electronics, etc., are all imported from Japan or other factories in Asia and the Thai workers just assemble them to make the finished car.

The figures for imports are, therefore, the most worrying. Assuming that the strong Baht has made many consumer imports more appealing (e.g a litre of reasonable Scotch whisky is now less than 400 Baht in Lotus!), and that their total is actually increasing, then the drop in "raw materials" imports that go into the assembly plants (and become next month's exports) must be even more alarming.

Have you got a source for this? When I look at the Bank of Thailand statistics it surely doesn't look that way. I picked the month of May 2008 to have a recent and "normal" (i.e. pre-recession) month. For that month the import value of "Vehicles and parts" was 424 MUSD, whereas the export value of "Vehicles, parts and accessories" was 1,534 MUSD. Add to that the value of "Vehicles, parts and accessories" that are sold domestically, and it seems that the import content is rather low. (Source: http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Ec...ionalTrade.aspx )

The above also fits in with my (admittedly erratic) memory telling me that there must, according to regulations, be a very high proportion (70-80% ?) of domestically produced parts to avoid the product being taxed as "imported". This would also explain why even cars that are imported as CKD (Completely Knocked Down) kits are taxed far and above domestically produced cars.

/ Priceless

Agreed on all points.

[mommysboy]

Thailand exports in record slump

Thailand's exports slumped by more than a quarter in May - a record fall - as demand for Thai goods overseas continued to drop during the downturn.

Exports fell by 26.6% compared with a year earlier, to $11.7bn (£7.1bn). Imports dropped by 34.7% to $9.3bn.

"Exports to key markets were all lower due to weak demand and intensifying competition," the government said.

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

"It is less likely there will be a strong rebound in Thai exports in the near future as demand for imports of raw materials has not picked up yet," said Suara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered Bank.

The Asian economy has been hit hard by the global economic downturn but also by political unrest at the end of 2008.

-- BBC June 19 - 2009

LaoPo

I notice less and less nutter postings about sufficiency and Thais meekly, and gratefully going back to till the land.

There's worse to come, as Thailand has now tarnished it's image and the strong bt. has caused buyers to take a long hard look at value for money.

Terrible figures! now regular month on month!

I'm not sure that anyone has made the self sufficiency claim but certainly workers returning home outside of any economic safety net is very much the norm - see posts further down this page for further anecdotal evidence. And just to keep things in perspective, the fall in exports is year on year!

But these things are comparative, so the question is whether we view the fall in exports in isolation or whether we compare it to economic indicators in other countries such as the UK, if we do that what do we compare against? Do we compare it against the 2.2 million unemployed and rising, or perhaps against the level of government debt and quantitative easing, 150 bill and rising - maybe we just compare exports against exports, hmm. I guess the message here is that it's important to view these things in context and not in isolation, if you want to see an accurate picture.

For sure it's a complex situation and Thailand is not alone in it's travails. I suppose if you wanted to make a comparison it would have to be with Japan or Germany as these are export driven countries too.

It's a severe downturn in Thailand however, and possibly worse than those fully developed countries, although it would be interesting to compare respective figures.

Somewhat akin to a plane about to stall!

Also, if you examine the figures you'll see the slump even extends to agriculture and raw materials. These are inelastic demand goods, so my assumption is buyers are going elsewhere.

It could be Thailand is suffering a double whammy, and given that upbeat predictions about GDP have thus far proved wrong, isn't it safe to conclude that the latest 'mae meut' predictions will follow suit?

And even if Asia does recover strongly, it's still a bit far fetched to blindly assume Thailand will follow suit. I mean why set up again in a country which has proved a disappointment time and again ?, which has a strong currency, and an unstable outlok politically. Surely, one would be looking at Vietnam, possibly even S. Korea.

[Priceless]

Exactly! Thailand actually manufactures very little; what it does do is assemble parts imported from foreign manufacturers and then export most of them as the finished article. Take the Honda plant in Thailand as an example. Very little of what goes into a Honda car is really made here, the engine, drive assembly, electronics, etc., are all imported from Japan or other factories in Asia and the Thai workers just assemble them to make the finished car.

The figures for imports are, therefore, the most worrying. Assuming that the strong Baht has made many consumer imports more appealing (e.g a litre of reasonable Scotch whisky is now less than 400 Baht in Lotus!), and that their total is actually increasing, then the drop in "raw materials" imports that go into the assembly plants (and become next month's exports) must be even more alarming.

Have you got a source for this? When I look at the Bank of Thailand statistics it surely doesn't look that way. I picked the month of May 2008 to have a recent and "normal" (i.e. pre-recession) month. For that month the import value of "Vehicles and parts" was 424 MUSD, whereas the export value of "Vehicles, parts and accessories" was 1,534 MUSD. Add to that the value of "Vehicles, parts and accessories" that are sold domestically, and it seems that the import content is rather low. (Source: http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Ec...ionalTrade.aspx )

The above also fits in with my (admittedly erratic) memory telling me that there must, according to regulations, be a very high proportion (70-80% ?) of domestically produced parts to avoid the product being taxed as "imported". This would also explain why even cars that are imported as CKD (Completely Knocked Down) kits are taxed far and above domestically produced cars.

/ Priceless

Just a PS to my previous post:

Honda Siel Cars India (HSCIL), a subsidiary of Honda Motor, Japan, plans to set up an engine manufacturing plant at an investment of around $150 million in India. HSCIL, which traditionally manufactured petrol engines, is also planning to develop a low-pollution, fuel-efficient diesel engine in India.

HSCIL is at present importing engines from Honda’s plant in Thailand, paying high import duty.

“At present, we are paying almost 104 per cent duty on import of engines from Thailand and also spending on logistics to transfer them from Mumbai port to our assembly plant in Greater Noida, near Delhi. So we would like to set up a complete engine and transmission manufacturing plant in India,” said Masahiro Takedagawa, president and chief executive officer, HSCIL.

(Source: http://www.mydigitalfc.com/companies/honda...ngine-plant-614 )

/ Priceless