Thaksin's Judgement Day

[webfact]

THAKSIN'S JUDGEMENT DAY

On the ropes

By Thanong Khanthong

Panya thiewsangwan

The Nation

Published on January 14, 2010

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's unannounced meeting with Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda yesterday evening has inflamed speculation about a possible political crisis ahead of fugitive ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra's "judgement day".

A source claimed Abhisit admitted to Prem the possibility of a House dissolution as coalition allies led by Chart Thai Pattana de-facto leader Banharn Silapa-Archa continued to pile pressure on the ruling Democrat Party over their demands for amendment of the Constitution.

Abhisit and Prem also discussed the growing belligerence of the red-shirt movement, seen as a development that could add to political instability.

According to the source, Prem encouraged Abhisit to carry on during the next difficult phase of his premiership.

Abhisit met Prem at the latter's Si Sao Thewes residence after switching his car at Parliament, apparently to avoid being followed by reporters. It was Prem who had called for the meeting, the source said.

The prime minister met the Privy Council chief once last year when the issue of who should be the new police chief threatened to become politically explosive.

Yesterday's meeting coincided with growing speculation that Thaksin's last-ditch efforts to save his Bt76-billion assets from the prospect of being permanently seized by the state would trigger a new round of political turmoil - perhaps even the worst to date.

Thaksin stands to lose all if the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders rules against

him on February 26 in his assets-seizure case. The Bt76 billion represents the final chunk of his wealth.

Sources claim Thaksin has suffered a series of financial blows that have depleted his funds, contrary to his claim in a recent interview on the Times Online website that he still had some US$100 million (Bt3.31 billion) of his total net worth.

First of all, they say financial and political problems related to his investments in Dubai are preventing him from returning to the emirate.

"If he goes back to Dubai, he'll be nabbed right at the airport," said one source. "His geographical movements have become a big constraint. He's now believed to be staying in Cambodia."

Second, the sources say the UK Treasury has quietly seized some $4 billion believed to belong to Thaksin.

Believing the money came from dubious tax havens, the Treasury orig

Finally froze the amount in 2008 in a procedure that would allow the rightful owner came forward to declare ownership, according to the sources. However, the time limit recently expired with no one claiming ownership, leading the Treasury to seize the money outright, the sources say.

A government source also said Thaksin was believed to have borrowed money from a Russian oil company to finance his political comeback.

"He'll be in big trouble with the Russians if he cannot repay that debt," the source said. "But wherever he goes, he likes to have his photo taken with VIPs, to assert his status."

A source close to Thaksin said the ousted leader now was down to between Bt500 billion and Bt1 billion.

As a fugitive on the run, the only way Thaksin can salvage his future is through a political upheaval in Thailand. He is said to be pursuing a three-pronged strategy to reclaim his assets and make a political comeback.

First, his cronies will lobby the Supreme Court in the assets-seizure case, hoping to get at least some of the money back. It is believed the Thaksin camp would be satisfied if the court returned Bt40 billion and ordered seizure of the rest, as the Thaksin empire was worth around that amount before he entered politics.

"This option will not work, because he has no influence over the Supreme Court," one source said.

Second, Thaksin will try to bring down the Abhisit Vejjajiva government. Already, red-shirt protesters have mobilised in a bid to topple the administration.

But a more effective way to remove the Democrat-led government is to drive a wedge between the coalition partners, with the Chart Thai Pattana Party acting as the catalyst.

Sources say the coalition partners may use the constitutional-amendment issue as an excuse to walk away from the government. Chart Thai Pattana, controlled by Banharn, is spearheading the drive, but the Bhum Jai Thai Party, controlled by Newin Chidchob, is believed to be hesitant.

As prime minister, Abhisit holds the upper hand, because he can counter the threat by opting to rule with a minority government if the coalition parties betray him.

Abhisit can run the country with a minority government for several months before calling a snap election, during which time he will still serve as acting prime minister.

Lastly, Thaksin's final game plan is to rely on the red shirts to start rioting again, with an ensuing military reaction in his favour ahead of the Supreme Court's February 26 ruling.

Political sources say the early part of next month will be the most intense period in terms of Thaksin's final battle for survival.

-- The Nation 2010-01-14

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[LaoPo]

Lots of rumors...lots of sources...lots of worries.

LaoPo

[geriatrickid]

Speculation.

Incendiary at that.

Gives me the impression the opinion writer hopes that there will be violence.

Disgusting.

[Siripon]

Even Thaksin's own side are pessimistic about his case, yesterday pundits were saying the parking of assets in Ample Rich and Win Mark, the transfer of shares at 1 baht each all point to attempts to hide assets.

And who can believe that Panthongthae can manage to get a bus, never mind millions of baht? Forced to leave Thammasart University and then found with a note tucked in his pocket in his final exam at Ramkhamhaeng.

Korn's explosive claim that Win Mark was set up to hide profits from money made from foreknowledge of the baht's devaluation and Thaksin's refusal to sue him is a time bomb that if proved could be the final nail in the coffin.

[Scott]

Let's hope that this situation resolves itself in the short term rather than the long term.

[animatic]

The banned Banharn will follow the money. That's a given.

But also he may have been promised reinstatement of status,

and possible a premiership if Thaksin regains the field as background leader.

An ego is a terrible thing to stroke so blatantly.

Whether Banharn's threats can be taken seriously is another issue.

He needs to be made an even grander offer, not including PM.

No doubt Prem and Abhisit needed to talk as the end game comes into play.

Because it has been a foregone conclusion Thaksin MUST go all out at this point.

Do or die is not beyond the reality, especially if this loan from Russian oil oligarchs

is a real thing.

If he wins they expect a see a deal with him and Hun Sen for the oil fields

off Thailand and Cambodia, if they lose... not many places to hide from their

bad boys, and have no doubts the Russians have plenty of bad boys.

And don't take well to being stiffed so publicly in the international scene.

A wild month of February coming up.

Edited January 14, 2010 by animatic

[Samuian]

Speculation.

Incendiary at that.

Gives me the impression the opinion writer hopes that there will be violence.

Disgusting.

Want a paper bag?

Khanthon Klanarong the writer of this article "wants violence"?

Where have you been re-programmed, Sir?

The assets seizure by the treasury of GB is "speculation"?

That this money has come from "dubious tax havens" is specultation?

So all are wrong - only the UUD, his cronies and he Mr.Thaksin himself is right!

You made my day!

Thank you for the fantastic insight and enlightenment a whole Nation is wrong....all his stunts, pure goodwill?

Thought this was a serious discussion and not the Farang Pub corner..

[Davidusaf99]

One this is for certain, you don't want to be in trouble with the Russians over money.

[animatic]

Even Thaksin's own side are pessimistic about his case....

Korn's explosive claim that Win Mark was set up to hide profits from money made from foreknowledge of the baht's devaluation and Thaksin's refusal to sue him is a time bomb that if proved could be the final nail in the coffin.

This last sentence really hits the mark.

Always thought that Thaksin used insider info to profit highly from Big Jiew's vocal ineptitude back then,

and also at the same time made sure Sondhi, his former senior partner, screwed the pooch big time

and was ruined.

This really reaches back to the reasons for their decade of extremely bad blood.

Thaksin made a killing using money that Sondhi had helped him make,

doubling of his investment to up to over Thaksin's 1st billion baht,

and at the same time took out a rival satalite deal between Sondhi and Laos,

AND a rival telecoms business.

If you go by this Win Mark date for his financial malfeasances,

then he loses most everything, because it was ill gotten even back in 1997

It certainly looked highly suspicious that Thaksin came out of the Asian Tiger crash RICHER.

While most everyone else, less well connected, collapsed like Bangkok building projects,

leaving skeletons all over the landscape.

Revenge is a meal best eaten cold,

and Sondhi may nor be in perfect shape now,

but his dinner is anything but warm right now.

I somehow imagine each frozen bite tastes pretty good to him.

Edited January 14, 2010 by animatic

[apetley]

UK Treasury seized 4 billion dollars or should that be 4 billion bht?

Either way I hope old Thaksin never gets back into power because if that's true he may have a score to settle and UK expats could be the first to suffer.

[Artisi]

UK Treasury seized 4 billion dollars or should that be 4 billion bht?

Either way I hope old Thaksin never gets back into power because if that's true he may have a score to settle and UK expats could be the first to suffer.

And how will Thaksin ever get back into power - in his dreams, maybe.

[londonthai]

"A source close to Thaksin said the ousted leader now was down to between Bt500 billion and Bt1 billion."

if all the other "sources" are like this, than they are not worth much money

[londonthai]

Either way I hope old Thaksin never gets back into power because if that's true he may have a score to settle and UK expats could be the first to suffer.

I don't think he will bother much with a forum member from kanchanaburi worth his 1229 posts

[webfact]

I advise to read the "News Clipping Posing Guidelines"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/News-Clippin...es-t327489.html

Thanks

[webfact]

Thaksin jabbing at Prem

In his Twitter message on Thursday, fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra gave his take on the private meeting between Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and chief royal adviser General Prem Tinsulanonda.

"Society now knows Prem is not involved in politics but politics entangles him" Thaksin said, alluding to the fact that Abhisit went to see Prem on Wednesday's evening.

He wryly quipped that Prem should have been in a reality show in order to ensure transparency.

-- The Nation 2010-01-14

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[moskito]

so why not just make new DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS to see what the free people of Thailand decide?

what Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva has achived so far anyway since Thaki is out of power

where is the difference in his friends fill his pockets now and before Thaksin and his friends filled their pockets?

same same, not different TiT

[jonclark]

so why not just make new DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS to see what the free people of Thailand decide?

what Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva has achived so far anyway since Thaki is out of power

where is the difference in his friends fill his pockets now and before Thaksin and his friends filled their pockets?

same same, not different TiT

This is a legal case. If people are allowed to decide the outcome of a legal case, all you have is mob rule. An election should be held to elect a government to run the country. Sure. But call an election to decide the fate of Taksin and his outstanding legal cases. Never. If he was accused of murder, would an election be the best way to decide his guilt or innocence??

I'm fairly sure there is a strong degree of political motivation behind the cases, but Taksin used the same tactic to scare/ put off his opponents whilst he was in power.

Live by the sword, die by the sword as the old saying goes

[h90]

The banned Banharn will follow the money. That's a given.

But also he may have been promised reinstatement of status,

and possible a premiership if Thaksin regains the field as background leader.

An ego is a terrible thing to stroke so blatantly.

Whether Banharn's threats can be taken seriously is another issue.

He needs to be made an even grander offer, not including PM.

No doubt Prem and Abhisit needed to talk as the end game comes into play.

Because it has been a foregone conclusion Thaksin MUST go all out at this point.

Do or die is not beyond the reality, especially if this loan from Russian oil oligarchs

is a real thing.

If he wins they expect a see a deal with him and Hun Sen for the oil fields

off Thailand and Cambodia, if they lose... not many places to hide from their

bad boys, and have no doubts the Russians have plenty of bad boys.

And don't take well to being stiffed so publicly in the international scene.

A wild month of February coming up.

that Banharn is following the money might be an advantage if Thaksin is short of money. As well he will want everything 100 % in advance.

[webfact]

PM Reveals 30-min Meeting with Gen Prem Not About House Dissolution

UPDATE : 14 January 2010

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva reveals that the 30-minute meeting he had with Privy Council President Gen Prem Tinsulanonda yesterday was not about the alleged plan by the government to call for a House dissolution. He claimed he merely paid a visit to General Prem to wish him a happy new year.

-- Tan Network 2010-01-14

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[Friction]

No doubt Prem and Abhisit needed to talk as the end game comes into play.

An end-game which will finally show up the minority opinion you represent Animatic.

Electorally, your perspective and that of your "colleagues" is inconsequential.

Your persistent demonization of Mr. Thaksin will come to naught and will be shown as having had no effect the way you have hoped it would.

Sad isn't it!

[Siripon]

No doubt Prem and Abhisit needed to talk as the end game comes into play.

An end-game which will finally show up the minority opinion you represent Animatic.

Electorally, your perspective and that of your "colleagues" is inconsequential.

Your persistent demonization of Mr. Thaksin will come to naught and will be shown as having had no effect the way you have hoped it would.

Sad isn't it!

You could be in for a long wait for the next election, nearly 2 years.

[jayjayjayjay]

Lots of rumors...lots of sources...lots of worries.

LaoPo

I'd call this a Swiss cheese article

[rixalex]

This is a legal case. If people are allowed to decide the outcome of a legal case, all you have is mob rule. An election should be held to elect a government to run the country. Sure. But call an election to decide the fate of Taksin and his outstanding legal cases. Never. If he was accused of murder, would an election be the best way to decide his guilt or innocence??

I'm fairly sure there is a strong degree of political motivation behind the cases, but Taksin used the same tactic to scare/ put off his opponents whilst he was in power.

Live by the sword, die by the sword as the old saying goes

All very true.

[jayboy]

No doubt Prem and Abhisit needed to talk as the end game comes into play.

An end-game which will finally show up the minority opinion you represent Animatic.

Electorally, your perspective and that of your "colleagues" is inconsequential.

Your persistent demonization of Mr. Thaksin will come to naught and will be shown as having had no effect the way you have hoped it would.

Sad isn't it!

You could be in for a long wait for the next election, nearly 2 years.

I tend to agree.It will be left to the last possible moment.Whether this is politically smart is another question but there is a fear and dread in some quarters of the Thai people speaking on a choice of government.

Most observers feel that even when an election is called there will be heavy handed efforts, spearheaded by the military, to influece and if necessary fix the outcome.The trouble is there are few untested weapons left in their armoury.

[TAWP]

Most observers feel that even when an election is called there will be heavy handed efforts, spearheaded by the military, to influece and if necessary fix the outcome.The trouble is there are few untested weapons left in their armoury.

'Most observers'? Pish-posh. More imaginary rigging from the 'the military hates Thaksin and freedom'-group. I suppose you forgot all the generals that got bought over to PT recently...

[Friction]

I notice with interest the attempt to reduce this "Democracy Movement' to being motivated exclusively by Mr. Thaksin's judicial money matters, and that actions in the next few weeks are only as an extension of that.

This is either a sad commentary on lack of political insight or is pure agenda. I suspect the latter.

I suppose y'all will say the next "double standard' highlighting action on Mr. Prem's Golf Course in Chantaburi the end of this month, is tied to judicial/Thaksin money matters....just doesn't compute boys!

I know some of you will also be annoyed by my repeated reference to a "Democracy Movement". But this is no more than my annoyance at your persistence on reducing the Democracy Movement to a non-descriptive clothing colour. Have no doubt that persistent reference to this "Democracy Movement" as "Red Shirts" is laden with agenda.

One side of the political divide absolutely needs to hide the presence of a 'Democracy Movement', for this implies the absence of democracy...hence the non-political "Red Shirts' descriptor neatly avoids this problem.

Sad isn't it.

[jayboy]

'Most observers'? Pish-posh. More imaginary rigging from the 'the military hates Thaksin and freedom'-group. I suppose you forgot all the generals that got bought over to PT recently...

The military has form on this.Read up the history and quietly reflect before talking foolishly about "imaginary rigging".It happened and it largely failed but it won't stop them trying again.

[Jingthing]

Sad isn't it.

I think the red shirts are going to be sad when the verdict comes in.

BTW, how do you think they you will react to the verdict?

Edited January 14, 2010 by Jingthing

[Samuian]

I notice with interest the attempt to reduce this "Democracy Movement' to being motivated exclusively by Mr. Thaksin's judicial money matters, and that actions in the next few weeks are only as an extension of that.

This is either a sad commentary on lack of political insight or is pure agenda. I suspect the latter.

I suppose y'all will say the next "double standard' highlighting action on Mr. Prem's Golf Course in Chantaburi the end of this month, is tied to judicial/Thaksin money matters....just doesn't compute boys!

I know some of you will also be annoyed by my repeated reference to a "Democracy Movement". But this is no more than my annoyance at your persistence on reducing the Democracy Movement to a non-descriptive clothing colour. Have no doubt that persistent reference to this "Democracy Movement" as "Red Shirts" is laden with agenda.

One side of the political divide absolutely needs to hide the presence of a 'Democracy Movement', for this implies the absence of democracy...hence the non-political "Red Shirts' descriptor neatly avoids this problem.

Sad isn't it.

"a lack of insight" I guarantee this!

Answer this: "Why then has "the Fugitive" done nothing at the time when he WAS at the helm, to promote genuine Democracy, to promote genuine human rights, to promote a strong judicial system and real independent courts, and, and, and, and.....was it this why he aimed at the absolute majority in parliament?

The TRT was up to the rim full with selfish, self serving people, just one reminder: Ms.Sudarat or better known as "Ms.20%" if she had only promoted good health why did she flee to Paris?

To install a "genuine Democracy of the people"?

Was it Sir?

Edited January 14, 2010 by Samuian

[Friction]

Sad isn't it.

I think the red shirts are going to be sad when the verdict comes in.

BTW, how do you think they you will react to the verdict?

I rub shoulders with "Democracy Movement" people daily, and so far have not heard any talk about the Thaksin/judicial money matters. The current course of discussion has been about the next "double Standards" highlighting action on Mr. Prem's Chantaburi golf course, concerns about the distance and not wanting to spend limited financial resources on this particular action. They want to husband their resources for the next BKK action. But I am sure a steady trickle will descend on Chantaburi to augment a greater regional presence. That alone will again guarantee a large turnout. The wishful thinking about reduced "Democracy Movement' fervor I often read about on this board just does not reflect reality, but is just that.."wishful thinking"

Perhaps by not focussing on the Thaksin/judicial matter is a certain resignation to something they are powerless to do anything about. Personally, I cannot see this taking a different tack than has already been established by what the "Democracy Movement" calls, the second coup..the judicial one.

Edited January 14, 2010 by Friction