For The Redshirts To Win....

[otherstuff1957]

This is obviously a very emotional issue, but I would be interested in some non-ranting, non-biased, thoughtful discussion of what the future might hold if the Redshirts win.

First, let's try to define what 'winning' means at what might and might not actually happen:

Despite the fears of some die-hard Yellows and hopes of some die-hard Reds, it's highly unlikely that the current government will be violently overthrown and that Thaksin will return in triumph to re-assume the post of PM.

A more likely scenario would be that the protests become violent, people die and the PM resigns. If this happens the Parliament will have to elect a new PM. Obviously the Democrats will nominate a Democrat and PT will nominate Chalerm. Neither part will have enough votes to get their man elected, so the smaller parties, Bhumi Jai whatever, Chart Thai and Pua Pandin, will be wooed by the two big parties.

Here's the current breakdown of MP's by party:

PT 190

Dems 172

BJT 32

PuaPandin 32

ChartThai 25

others 24

MP's by party

To get a majority vote, PT or the Dems will need two or more of the smaller parties to vote for them. So, basically, getting the PM to step down will just put more power into the hands of Newin, Banharn, Sanoh, etc... Now they will have to be given some incentive to vote for one side or the other. Those incentives could include cabinet posts, government contracts for their relatives, money for the provinces they come from or just plain money. As I see it, even if the PM steps down, there is no guarantee that the next PM won't just be another Democrat!

Another scenario would dissolving the Parliament and holding new elections. This couldn't happen overnight, so there would have to be a caretaker government for 60 days or so. I don't know what the results of a new election would be, but I suspect that the next parliament will look a lot like the current parliament.

A third scenario would be the overthrow of the government with Thaksin returning in triumph to re-assume the post of PM and give everyone from Issan 1 million baht as a gesture of thanks. IMHO this is just a wet dream of the Reds and an unrealistic nightmare of the Yellows.

Finally there is the issue of Thaksin. How can he return? If I understand how things work, Parliament cannot pardon him. Can a PT dominated Parliament change the laws to make his conviction retroactively void? If they do, how will they deal with the 5 or 6 pending cases against him?

Anyway, I know that there are quite a few knowledgeable people out there. What do you think of these or other possible scenarios?

[hextac]

The reds have been kicked to the curb, they have no leader with enough power/money to look to apart from Thaksin. As far as they are concerned everyone in parliament is corrupt. They therefore side with they one that did good by them whilst he was in office.

Just like in every western "democratic" nation people vote according to perceived gain.

It really is that simple.

[Carib]

For the reds to win they will have to wait till the next elections and vote. Just like in any democracy old or young.

Why didn't they wait? Because a certain `gentlemen`would lose the momentum of the troubled times for him right now.

That is the only reason they are out in the streets now, and most of them don't even know or realise it.

Without this `gentlemen`s` problems they wouldn't be in the streets of Bangkok today, that is my firm believe.

Maybe some political awareness will come of this, so that at the next elections they will go and vote.

Their cause ( a better life) is not a bad one. It is the way that they are used, which is bad.

[Jingthing]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

[Carib]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

Let me put it this way: "The most to win" is at an election.

[monkfish]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

They weren't suppose to win the last election but they did.

But may be your prediction is right and all the farmers are going to vote dems next election.

One thing is for sure, who ever takes care of em will be in government because they have more voting power than Bangkok.

Power to the people!!

[smokie36]

The reds have been kicked to the curb, they have no leader with enough power/money to look to apart from Thaksin. As far as they are concerned everyone in parliament is corrupt. They therefore side with they one that did good by them whilst he was in office.

Just like in every western "democratic" nation people vote according to perceived gain.

It really is that simple.

Thailand sure has a lot to learn. In my western 'democracy' both parties have the same policies and agenda thereby negating any need to vote. Life is so much easier when you realise all political parties will screw you. This is why accountants earn big bucks.

[smokie36]

Power to the people!!

Its good to see them exercising it in a peaceful manner. So far anyway...

[hextac]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

Even without your incessant rhetoric the reds will still outvote yellows. So I would suggest to have a coup to oust the completely legitimate PM, have a "democratic" vote, remove the elected PM with some ridiculous contrived reason, dissolve the judiciary, and have another election and persuade enough of the MPs to change colour/flavour/paymaster after the electorate has voted. Democracy in action.

[Jingthing]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

Even without your incessant rhetoric the reds will still outvote yellows. So I would suggest to have a coup to oust the completely legitimate PM, have a "democratic" vote, remove the elected PM with some ridiculous contrived reason, dissolve the judiciary, and have another election and persuade enough of the MPs to change colour/flavour/paymaster after the electorate has voted. Democracy in action.

My rhetoric? It is not the reds vs. the yellows. It is the reds vs. EVERYONE else. Abhsit isn't yellow no matter that the reds say he is. The yellows have their own party now, BTW, I doubt they will get much support at all. Anyone who thinks this is red vs. yellow, doesn't get it. In any case, I am sure there is now going to be a strong backlash against anything red and anything Thaksin. This failure in Bangkok and the clear END of the Thaksin era is a GAME CHANGER.

[MAJIC]

A Miracle

[Carib]

A Miracle

The trouble with most miracles is that one cannot see them...

[monkfish]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

Even without your incessant rhetoric the reds will still outvote yellows. So I would suggest to have a coup to oust the completely legitimate PM, have a "democratic" vote, remove the elected PM with some ridiculous contrived reason, dissolve the judiciary, and have another election and persuade enough of the MPs to change colour/flavour/paymaster after the electorate has voted. Democracy in action.

My rhetoric? It is not the reds vs. the yellows. It is the reds vs. EVERYONE else. Abhsit isn't yellow no matter that the reds say he is. The yellows have their own party now, BTW, I doubt they will get much support at all. Anyone who thinks this is red vs. yellow, doesn't get it. In any case, I am sure there is now going to be a strong backlash against anything red and anything Thaksin. This failure in Bangkok and the clear END of the Thaksin era is a GAME CHANGER.

Whilst we are at it none of his party members are yellow either.

There you go i am brain washed

[MAJIC]

A Miracle

[hextac]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

Even without your incessant rhetoric the reds will still outvote yellows. So I would suggest to have a coup to oust the completely legitimate PM, have a "democratic" vote, remove the elected PM with some ridiculous contrived reason, dissolve the judiciary, and have another election and persuade enough of the MPs to change colour/flavour/paymaster after the electorate has voted. Democracy in action.

My rhetoric? It is not the reds vs. the yellows. It is the reds vs. EVERYONE else. Abhsit isn't yellow no matter that the reds say he is. The yellows have their own party now, BTW, I doubt they will get much support at all. Anyone who thinks this is red vs. yellow, doesn't get it. In any case, I am sure there is now going to be a strong backlash against anything red and anything Thaksin. This failure in Bangkok and the clear END of the Thaksin era is a GAME CHANGER.

I'm sorry I use the terms "red" and "yellow" quite loosely - because at any given moment they can switch allegiance, as proven before. Loving your spin on things though... Just to keep things simple what "colour" is Abhisit? I'm pretty sure the "reds" think he's "yellow"

[ciaociao]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

Even without your incessant rhetoric the reds will still outvote yellows. So I would suggest to have a coup to oust the completely legitimate PM, have a "democratic" vote, remove the elected PM with some ridiculous contrived reason, dissolve the judiciary, and have another election and persuade enough of the MPs to change colour/flavour/paymaster after the electorate has voted. Democracy in action.

My rhetoric? It is not the reds vs. the yellows. It is the reds vs. EVERYONE else. Abhsit isn't yellow no matter that the reds say he is. The yellows have their own party now, BTW, I doubt they will get much support at all. Anyone who thinks this is red vs. yellow, doesn't get it. In any case, I am sure there is now going to be a strong backlash against anything red and anything Thaksin. This failure in Bangkok and the clear END of the Thaksin era is a GAME CHANGER.

I'm sorry I use the terms "red" and "yellow" quite loosely - because at any given moment they can switch allegiance, as proven before. Loving your spin on things though... Just to keep things simple what "colour" is Abhisit? I'm pretty sure the "reds" think he's "yellow"

As long as TARKSIN has money, don't count him out!!!

[Cnxforever]

The reds have been kicked to the curb, they have no leader with enough power/money to look to apart from Thaksin. As far as they are concerned everyone in parliament is corrupt. They therefore side with they one that did good by them whilst he was in office.

Just like in every western "democratic" nation people vote according to perceived gain.

It really is that simple.

you are absolutely right - the same corrupt garbage (with few exceptions) which was in power together with Thaksin and long before him is still sitting in parliament or pulling the strings from behind.

Nothing has changed.

You loose as Thaksin did in this country if you think you have become to powerful and can reject the real masters who run the show regardless who is PM or the government and we all know who they are. They met yesterday at the 11th Regiment - one particular motorcade in full public view to make it known that he is mingling in politics again, who he supports - but really dictates.

It is always the same game – while you are in power they let you be as corrupt as you want - unpunished – until they feel they need to remove you for whatever reason and then they use it against you. Always a good excuse for a coup – “we removed a corrupt government “ And since all politicians here are corrupt it has been easy for them for so many years – and the crowds chear.

The only thing that could change the situation now is Newin - his brain will be working overtime now - he has a choice to make and a difficult one - will he switch back to Thaksin?

If not he will be labelled the "Traitor" during the next elections and will loose his power base because people are still angry at him and he will not be able to pull the same election results like in the past – he will loose his shine as the “Kingmaker” and in Thai politics this means you are finished. His bargaining power will be minimal.

If he stays with the democrats his days are numbered - one day Abhisit has to call elections - he might have done so already if his "masters" in the background would allow him -but they won't for personal reasons -what would Anupong do if Thaksin returns?

Although I know what protected club he would join like so many of him before.

I honestly think Abhisit is an honest man who would do the right thing when he has to make the call - but he is like a sheep between wolfs who have not decided yet when they will tier him apart.

If Newin switches back to Thaksin he will be called a Traitor by the Democrats - he can live with this - but his long term political survival has a better chance. Newin knows the man who formed this government - it was formed in Anupongs home - Newin knows Anupongs days are numbered as well he will be replaced soon.

The dice are already rolled and the joint session in parliament will reveal it all - Newin has taken precautions and "visited his children" in London. So the whole deal might have been done already - he might have still hoped for a small turnout at the rally but he is now seeing all his fur swimming away down the river and has to react.

One thing is cetain the nickname "Newin the Traitor" for him will stay whichever way it goes.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

For the Red Shirts to win, this needs to happen:

1. Win an election, again. (This is the easy part)

2. Buy some of those regional power brokers back to their side (Newin, Banharn). (Also relatively straightforward; they've been there, done that)

3. Somehow avoid the judiciary banning them, again. Likely this means making back-room deals with the powers that be, to allow them to govern under

strict circumstances which will likely include to stick with the military drafted constitution and for Thaksin not to return in any sort of influential position

So.. while most 'Reds' may perceive that as a victory, it really isn't because it doesn't get rid of the shackles of managed democracy.

Edited March 16, 2010 by WinnieTheKhwai

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Double post for some reason... Might as well think of something else to say but gotta run.

Edited March 16, 2010 by WinnieTheKhwai

[otherstuff1957]

^That may very well be what happens at the next election (scheduled for late 2011 if I am correct). The problem with the red leadership is Thaksin. If he appoints an honest, popular Red leader he risks being sidelined himself. I believe that that is the reason that the Red leaders are always either corrupt or weak or both.

[jdinasia]

Well their shenanigans has greatly eroded the support of the Thaksin party, whenever the election. Its clear to me if an election was held today the Thaksin party would NOT get the most votes (no party will get a majority).

They weren't suppose to win the last election but they did.

But may be your prediction is right and all the farmers are going to vote dems next election.

One thing is for sure, who ever takes care of em will be in government because they have more voting power than Bangkok.

Power to the people!!

Way too simplistic.

The reds have access to electing more MP's than Bangkok as long as things remain static in the electoral process. They don't have more access to electing MP's when you look at the country as a whole. The South votes Democrat (and yes the South has a large section of people working in agriculture and thus poor.) The small parties that exist split out many votes in quite a few areas around the country. TRT and PPP did better than they should have solely because they bought the loyalty of existing political machines in the N.E. and that will likely never happen again. It certainly won't happen without Thaksin's cash. Newin and the rest turned their collective backs on that temporary alignment.

People that haven't looked at the history of politics by region will not ever really understand things here imho.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^That may very well be what happens at the next election (scheduled for late 2011 if I am correct). The problem with the red leadership is Thaksin. If he appoints an honest, popular Red leader he risks being sidelined himself. I believe that that is the reason that the Red leaders are always either corrupt or weak or both.

Well, we're departing from unbiased discussion as stated in your original post, but I think the main reason is that TRTs best people were all banned for 5 years by the courts. That leaves the current crop plus the dinosaurs. I don't like those at all, but am willing to admit the reasons why we're stuck with them. For now. The 5 years are almost up.

[hammered]

^That may very well be what happens at the next election (scheduled for late 2011 if I am correct). The problem with the red leadership is Thaksin. If he appoints an honest, popular Red leader he risks being sidelined himself. I believe that that is the reason that the Red leaders are always either corrupt or weak or both.

Well, we're departing from unbiased discussion as stated in your original post, but I think the main reason is that TRTs best people were all banned for 5 years by the courts. That leaves the current crop plus the dinosaurs. I don't like those at all, but am willing to admit the reasons why we're stuck with them. For now. The 5 years are almost up.

Eighteen months is the limit of this government. Then a new one and maybe some constittuional changes and then the banned are no longer banned in time for a new election after the constitutional changes. A number of the 111 sit in the background waiting for this exact scenario or something close to it. They will be back. In the meantime they sit back quietly for the most knowing that they can pull strings and enjoy pet projects and of course give some practice to family members and other lieutenants.

[slimdog]

If I understand correctly, for the red shirts to win, they require two things to happen; New elections and the current conviction to be quashed.

For the first, there are a number of possibilities:

Protestors force the Prime Minister to dissolve parliament.

The Speaker of the House calls on the Prime Minister to dissolve Parliament.

Opposition wins a vote of no-confidence and dissolves parliament.

The number of members of Parliament drops below the 95% lower limit.

The first is highly unlikely.

The second is a possibility. To avoid this the Prime Minister will have to guarantee that no further house sittings are ever cancelled due to a lack of a quarom. Today, must be the first time ever that a Government has ever boycotted a Parliament session which was due to debate a Government sponsored bill...

The third will require the support of at least 2 of the mid sized parties, a possibility but not likely, as it will accomplish nothing in regards to solving any of the current problems.

The last is questionable. The Constitution does state that a minimum of 95% of seats must be taken, for the House of Representatives, to be formed. It would be upto the Constitutional Court to decide whether dropping below this amount would constitute a lack of quorum. In my opinon it would also set a very dangerous precident.

For the Second, there are also a number of possibilities.

A Royal pardon

A Pardon granted by Parliament

A change in the law.

The first is possible, but highly unlikely

The second is also possible, but would need support from both houses. Some form of guarantee would also be absolutely required, but maybe a little too controversial though.

The third is an interesting possibility. Section 100 of the Counter Corruption Act is poorly written, to the extent that from a technical point, even having a phone line or electric supply could be construed as being in violation of the Conflict of Interest law.

A change to Section 122 of the NCCC Act (The section which provides for punishment) to include that a violation of Section 100 would only be punishable if either sections 152 or 157 of the criminal code (The standard charges when used for any acts of corruption) were also violated, would possibly be sufficient for Penal Code, Chapter 2, Section 2 to be valid. This states that if someone is sentenced for a crime where the law has changed to the extent that the person could no longer be punished, then the original verdict is invalid.

[anotherpeter]

IF there was an election now, would the PTP (or whoever Thaksin's party is) "win"?

Assuming they win the most seats, they won't (or VERY unlikely) win more than 50% of the seats, so they will have to form a coalition.

How will that be any different to now?

Don't the PTP have more MPs than any other party? Why can't they form a coalition now? Why couldn't they after the PPP was disbanded?

[ivowatson]

My rhetoric? It is not the reds vs. the yellows. It is the reds vs. EVERYONE else. Abhsit isn't yellow no matter that the reds say he is. The yellows have their own party now, BTW, I doubt they will get much support at all. Anyone who thinks this is red vs. yellow, doesn't get it. In any case, I am sure there is now going to be a strong backlash against anything red and anything Thaksin. This failure in Bangkok and the clear END of the Thaksin era is a GAME CHANGER.

The longer the reds stay in bkk showing they're, er, 'insane', the more votes will go the yellows. If Abbhisit can stay reasonable and dignified and the economy improves, as expected, the Dems will win (a little) more votes. Anyway, the next government will be a coalition of many parties again.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

IF there was an election now, would the PTP (or whoever Thaksin's party is) "win"?

Assuming they win the most seats, they won't (or VERY unlikely) win more than 50% of the seats, so they will have to form a coalition.

How will that be any different to now?

Don't the PTP have more MPs than any other party? Why can't they form a coalition now? Why couldn't they after the PPP was disbanded?

They can't form a coalition now because the Democrats and possibly other influences "enticed" people who were previously in the TRT/PTP party over to their side. It's pretty obvious that those people will have to make a move fairly soon, or else their electorate will rip them a new one come next elections and they don't want that. That'll be the end of the current government and will likely bring PTP back "on top".

It however changes NOTHING in the overall way the country is managed. Thai democracy (or what passed for it) was set back a decade or so since the coup, and I see nothing to indicate that this ground is going to be made back up and that's sad or all people in all parts of the country and in (almost) every echelon of society, bar the very top.

[slimdog]

Anyway, the next government will be a coalition of many parties again.

One thing to remember.

Under the present Constitutional Organic laws, No political parties are allowed to merge except after the house has been dissolved.

There has been talk about some of the small/medium sized parties joining together, in particular Social Action, Ruam Jai Thai, Rassadorn, Puea Pandin and possibly Pracharaj. Combined these parties are far larger than both Chart Thai or Bhum Jai Thai, yet they have considerably less influence.

So it is possible that in the next election the medium sized parties, who will ultimately decide who is the Government, will only consist of Chart Thai Pattana, Bhum Jai Thai, and one other.

If this does happen, then the next Coalitition Government will Consist of only 2-4 parties rather than 7 we have at present.

[Pakboong]

What ever party emerges as a competitor to the existing power, it must be lead at the top several layers by ethnic Thais. No ethnic Chinese players allowed except at street soldier level. And, it goes without saying that there won't be many Chinese willing to take the role as street soldier.

Edited March 17, 2010 by Pakboong

[jdinasia]

What ever party emerges as a competitor to the existing power, it must be lead at the top several layers by ethnic Thais. No ethnic Chinese players allowed except at street soldier level. And, it goes without saying that there won't be many Chinese willing to take the role as street soldier.

So .. what is the basic reason for a party that is based upon bigotry?