Abhisit's Dilemma: Pacify Your Foes, Offend Your Friends

chantorn · May 6, 2010

The reds don't trust Abhisit and for sure the leader want amnesty.
The yellows believe that there are secret amnesty deals

The reds need pardon for their banned politicians. The yellows will be furious if that happens and will destroy the roadmap and/or a lot democrat voter will switch to the New Politics Party.

(which makes a relative majority of the PTP more probable).

So I see a lot problems

Mark needs pardon for their banned politicians too, so that Democrates will not be banned for the TPI 258 millions baht abuse case coming up later this year.

Redsunset · May 6, 2010

See you all back here to discuss the yellow shirt protests and the back and forth, never-ending political bickering between the haves and the have nots.... between those in power, and those who seek power...

Fact is, I'm happy the protests are coming to an end... maybe just accepting a compromise to get out of this precarious situation is the best, but it can lead to greater problems in the future.

I don't like the ambiguous nature of the proposal, and at the very least, more specifics need to be identified to assess compliance with the "five conditions" for BOTH sides.... clarity, objectivity will help lessen the fighting and arguing later on.

whybother · May 6, 2010

Anything can happen between now and November 14. But that is not a reason to reject the road map.

The reds have basically accepted it, although it's not a done deal yet.

The yellows are complaining about it, which means that there must be something good in it for the reds.

It's a compromise by all (relevant) parties. That is what is needed.

But clarify it before you accept it... you will regret it if you don't... when people don't trust each other, you have to be clear from the start.

The road map basically covers the reds stated aims at the start of the protest.

Corruption issues - "injustice in the economic and political structures".

Help for the poor - "provide good social welfare, education, health etc".

Political reform - "injustice regarding to political system".

And elections in a suitable timeframe.

It will take a couple of months to work out the detail of some of the issues, and probably a couple of years to actually get some of them working properly.

The reds can't expect detail when they are very short on their own detail to solve these problems.

whybother · May 6, 2010

Looks like the reds are leaning towards giving a date when they'll leave, rather than just leaving :s
That attitude plus CRES announcements looks like developments towards one more stand-off (at least) before it's over. Perhaps a silly "face saving" exercise for the reds...

I can't believe that one of the things the reds have been saying "Get rid of the army, and then we'll go". But it goes along with some the other illogical things they've been saying.

pornsasi · May 6, 2010

Why compromise when Mark is clearly in the wining isde.
Roll in the tanks, million of people are expecting it, and in support of Suthep.

Its lucky for Thailand that Gen Anupong is in charge rather then you instead

Samuian · May 6, 2010

IMHO if the likes of Sah Daeng and Arisman are still publicly running around making mindless threats six months the "road map" should be viewed as a complete failure.

it's one point the rm is based on isn't it - it's poised to "fail"...

"The Man" said: "I am still in good health, have plenty of time, not losing any hair..."

He only needs to wait and gather strength, he managed it once, he will manage again,

no doubts, absolutely none, he got the money, plenty of willing mercenaries and followers

and yes a huge undecided crowd of onlookers who stick to "mai pen rai" attitude like super glue,

as if it is the ultimate regulator, which will make any wrong, right!

we'll see....

landofthefree · May 6, 2010

See you all back here to discuss the yellow shirt protests and the back and forth, never-ending political bickering between the haves and the have nots.... between those in power, and those who seek power...
Fact is, I'm happy the protests are coming to an end... maybe just accepting a compromise to get out of this precarious situation is the best, but it can lead to greater problems in the future.

I don't like the ambiguous nature of the proposal, and at the very least, more specifics need to be identified to assess compliance with the "five conditions" for BOTH sides.... clarity, objectivity will help lessen the fighting and arguing later on.

Redsunset yet again we agree. The problem that I see now is that everyone knows they can hold the country to ransom by acting illegaly and win. This doesn't bode well for the future in Thailand but they are thinking what the hel_l we're Buddhists and only the present is of importance.

Redsunset · May 6, 2010

Anything can happen between now and November 14. But that is not a reason to reject the road map.

The reds have basically accepted it, although it's not a done deal yet.

The yellows are complaining about it, which means that there must be something good in it for the reds.

It's a compromise by all (relevant) parties. That is what is needed.

But clarify it before you accept it... you will regret it if you don't... when people don't trust each other, you have to be clear from the start.

The road map basically covers the reds stated aims at the start of the protest.

Corruption issues - "injustice in the economic and political structures".

Help for the poor - "provide good social welfare, education, health etc".

Political reform - "injustice regarding to political system".

And elections in a suitable timeframe.

It will take a couple of months to work out the detail of some of the issues, and probably a couple of years to actually get some of them working properly.

The reds can't expect detail when they are very short on their own detail to solve these problems.

YES BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THIS IS WHY THIS PROPOSAL IS INCOMPLETE!!!!

Now, as I've said over and over again, I do not like it. You can't craft an effective proposal in a few days (especially when two sides do not trust each other and so vehemently disagree) with only one side doing all the crafting... but for the sake of peace, I understand why people will accept it in its raw form.

But believe me, too many arguements and fights are started when people start with generalities, but then when reality hits, they have different assumptions as to HOW to achieve these generalities.... Cases in points..... MARRIAGES! Most people get married with the best intentions, and with the same objectives, but then why are there so many divorces? I'll say the same for business partnerships too.... lols

Edited May 6, 2010 by Redsunset

jayjay0 · May 6, 2010

Abhisit found a way to get out of a no-win situation without a civil war. He should be commended rather than criticized.

Beg to disagree with you but it is a lose lose situation. Neither side gets what they want and Thailand gets nothing but harder times.

whybother · May 6, 2010

YES BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THIS IS WHY THIS PROPOSAL IS INCOMPLETE!!!!
Now, as I've said over and over again, I do not like it. You can't craft an effective proposal in a few days (especially when two sides do not trust each other and so vehemently disagree) with only one side doing all the crafting... but for the sake of peace, I understand why people will accept it in its raw form.

But believe me, too many arguements and fights are started when people start with generalities, but then when reality hits, they have different assumptions as to HOW to achieve these generalities.... Cases in points..... MARRIAGES! Most people get married with the best intentions, and with the same objectives, but then why are there so many divorces? I'll say the same for business partnerships too.... lols

If the reds want to wait for all the details, then they will be there for another couple of months.

Except their leaders will be handing themselves over in about a week - if you trust anything they say, that is.

Robby nz · May 6, 2010

[

Reds called off any further negotiations before then, all in front of the cameras.

All this posturing, back room dealing is a waste of time... Abhisit is becoming a clown. He needs to treat the red shirt leaders as violent, untrustworthy criminals. He is again, behaving like an Oxford college student.... a good man, but Abhisit does not know how to deal with evil at all.

Good one redsunset you have finally agreed that the reds are evil

And yes he does need to treat them as they make themselves.

Must be difficult for those on this forum who can only look at things with one red eye.

The PM has done a great job, after the reds refused to negotiate he talked them into building their own prison then when they tried to escape from it they were sent back twice an now have nowhere to go because they know what will happen if they try to break out again.

The pity is that the red leaders made the decision on 10th to break out in the mistaken belief that nothing would be done and because of that decision so many had to lose their lives and be injured.

That decision is the sole cause of what came after and the loss of lives and damage done is all a consequence of that decision; that being so the reds are solely to blame.

They were warned (note not threatned) that they would be stopped if they tried to move out but refused to heed that warning hence the loss of life and injuries.

And incidently all the treats and demands have come from the red side, like death treats against the PM, while the Govt has issued warnings.

Dont see the difference? Didnt think you would

Look, Robby, I am not here to agree with you. Your opinion is hardly gospel here, as I've read some of your posts and frankly, I'm not sure how you reach your conclusions because many of them lack substance.

For example, you seem to be painting me as a red supporter. Based on your post, you also seem to be belittling anyone who might offer a point of view different than yours.

I find YOU, to be a bit "red" and YOU should look at yourself in the mirror and stop belittling ideas that might not be those you support.

For the record I do NOT support the reds. I support people who speak straight with the right values. So if you disagree with me, rather than to stereotype me, or to try and "convert me" you should either argue your point or keep your keyboard shut.

Sorry Redsunset looks like I have to apologise for taking your anti PM stance as pro red.

I have no affiliations either way and try to see things as an interested observer, my interest being that this is the country I choose to live in and what the reds are doing to this country is in my opinion reprehensable.

I have followed this from way back and have formed those opinions through watching this unfold mostly on Thai TV. You are very welcome to your opinions and no doubt we will see in the end which of us is wrong about the PM.

I see several posters have changed their opionion in favour of the PM of late and can understand that.

However while I think he has made a good job of handling the situation I dont agree fully that he should shorten his term in office. There is a lot for and against, for instance he could be seen as giving in to a mob, but then he could also be seen as trying to avoid bloodshed etc, etc.

Also I dont think the reds will accept without full amnisty and that should never happen, they must pay for what they have done.

Something else: the Govt has offered a compensation package to those out of work and out of pocket because of the riots, What have the red shirts offered?

Motoon · May 6, 2010

I'm afraid so.The multi-colored are essentially just the yellows, an arm of PAD.
The same nationalist hysteria, the same hatred and fear of the rural majority, the same susceptibility to extremist leadership.

They think that, for example, being on Facebook makes them sophisticated and "educated".Pasty faced wanke_rs who think the creep who drove Daddy's Porsche into a crowd of peaceful demonstrators was a hero.

In your second paragraph you accuse others of hysteria and hatred, and then in your third you yourself exhibit all the signs of those exact characteristics, and do so using the type of language that does you no credit.

It was a bit extreme wasn't it, but strangely enjoyable to write and containing more than a grain of truth.I don't know if you read Thai but it's really instructive to see what some of these "normal" and "educated" Bangkok youngish m-class types write on Facebook.Pure hatred of rural Thais and crazy nationalism, straight out of the PAD playbook - although most profess to be multi-colored.Sad thing is some are my colleagues and friends.When I attempt to query their position, they look at me pityingly and say "Dear Khun Jayboy, how difficult it must be for foreigners - even someone like you - to understand the complexities of Thai politics."

A bit over the top maybe but that's not what I noted first. There are obviously extremists on both sides of the fence yet you choose to bash one side only and you selectively mention a minor case to prove your case, when on the other hand people have died because of the very same extremism (no matter what color). Thus you come across as a biased individual with a colored opinion...

whybother · May 6, 2010

Now red supporters ... is Abhisit a yellow or not?

THE NATION: Urgent: PAD comdemns Abhisit for giving "terrorists" leniency.
THE NATION: The no-holds-barred condemnation is read out on ASTV by suriyasai katasila.

THE NATION: PM should resign: PAD

I hope you can start understanding that being anti-red does not mean that you support these idiots.

Motoon · May 6, 2010

Mark needs pardon for their banned politicians too, so that Democrates will not be banned for the TPI 258 millions baht abuse case coming up later this year.

Might be an interesting point although the current case is not concluded yet therefore as of this moment there are no banned Dems. But it could be part of the ongoing dealing and wheeling. We'll know probably later...

Motoon · May 6, 2010

YES BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THIS IS WHY THIS PROPOSAL IS INCOMPLETE!!!!
Now, as I've said over and over again, I do not like it. You can't craft an effective proposal in a few days (especially when two sides do not trust each other and so vehemently disagree) with only one side doing all the crafting... but for the sake of peace, I understand why people will accept it in its raw form.

But believe me, too many arguements and fights are started when people start with generalities, but then when reality hits, they have different assumptions as to HOW to achieve these generalities.... Cases in points..... MARRIAGES! Most people get married with the best intentions, and with the same objectives, but then why are there so many divorces? I'll say the same for business partnerships too.... lols

Good post! It is actually an important issue although there is a certain tradition to this process. See for example all the government contracts that end in dispute and lawsuits on a regual base...

porky8pig · May 6, 2010

And where is the confirmation, in writing or on video, that 14 November is a fact - it is the actual date of the election?
Haven't seen any proof yet. Just speculation.

@321niti123: Don't praise the man - if he'd had enough sense before Songkran there would not have been such a drastic loss of life in April.

He is a fool with nowhere to run.

You are implying the direct loss of life in April is caused by him; I dont see you are making any sense; trace back all the discussion in the past three weeks before you make such a claim. It is shameful that you are still criticizing Abhisit, one that has been seeking for the best outcome out of the chaos; ask yourself again was it a fair statement that you made.

SomTumTiger · May 6, 2010

Time calls Abhisit a Statesman. I've been saying that for months. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...1987118,00.html

Arkady · May 6, 2010

Abhisit did what very few other politicians would have done, he shortened his term for the good of the country, he certainly didnt have to but he is good enough to know that the best compromise is the one that doesnt involve a risk on innocent lives.

He got his orders - he did what he was told.

I don't think he had orders to do this. If you think about it logically, there was not much else he could have done. It is not clear that the military would have followed an order to use force to disperse the red shirts, while Anuphong is commander-in-chief and it is not easy to sack the CiC. Even if it were possible the operation would have been very bloody and could have led to guerilla warfare outside Bangkok.

Basically not much is gained or lost by either side. Abhisit will dissolve the House three months earlier than he had already offered to in negotiations with the red shirts. The reds have got people killed and injured and damaged the economy for very little gain and they have also spoiled their image as romantic revolutionaries in the international media by storming the hospital. On Abhisit's side he knows he couldn't have finished his full term anyway because the coalition partners would have ditched him due to the hard line the Democrat stallwarts like Chuan were taking against their demands for consititutional amendments and other disagreements mainly revolving around the urge of old style politicians in the coalition parties to get their faces deeper into the trough before it is too late.

Edited May 6, 2010 by Arkady

Jingthing · May 6, 2010

Time calls Abhisit a Statesman. I've been saying that for months. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...1987118,00.html

Yes, and it is heartening that the western press FINALLY got it right and realized the reds were violent insurgents rather than peace and freedom loving democracy fighters such as in Burma. What took them so long? The coverage for so long was totally biased in favor of the insurgents.

But as videos and photos emerged of Red Shirts or protest sympathizers firing assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades at soldiers, it became clear that the protest had become an armed insurgency.

WinnieTheKhwai · May 6, 2010

I agree with Chuan Leek Pai... Abhisit compromised "rule of law."
His five conditions are ambiguous and nonsense. Of course most would agree to these "motherhood and apple pie" statements... that is like saying "education needs to be available for everyone." Most would agree with this comment. But how you go about achieving it, who get the benefits, and who pays for it is the problem.

Also, no way the leaders will agree to NOT have amnesty... NO WAY. They will parlay the "hey the yellow shirts did it and got off scot free!" card.

Forget it... a guy like Nattawut go to jail without a fight... NO F'ing WAY!!!!!!

Deal the way it is written is a NO GO.

Umm, they already agreed to NOT have amnesty.. Something tells me you're not reading UDD announcements?

And damned right Nattawut won't go to jail without a fight.. in court. Someone somewhere will have to come up with something better than a blanket allegation of 'inciting terrorism and underminging the monarchy', though.

Edited May 6, 2010 by WinnieTheKhwai

warfie · May 6, 2010

Abhisit found a way to get out of a no-win situation without a civil war. He should be commended rather than criticized.

Beg to disagree with you but it is a lose lose situation. Neither side gets what they want and Thailand gets nothing but harder times.

How do you figure that?

retarius · May 6, 2010

I'm afraid so.The multi-colored are essentially just the yellows, an arm of PAD.
The same nationalist hysteria, the same hatred and fear of the rural majority, the same susceptibility to extremist leadership.

They think that, for example, being on Facebook makes them sophisticated and "educated".Pasty faced wanke_rs who think the creep who drove Daddy's Porsche into a crowd of peaceful demonstrators was a hero.

In your second paragraph you accuse others of hysteria and hatred, and then in your third you yourself exhibit all the signs of those exact characteristics, and do so using the type of language that does you no credit.

It was a bit extreme wasn't it, but strangely enjoyable to write and containing more than a grain of truth.I don't know if you read Thai but it's really instructive to see what some of these "normal" and "educated" Bangkok youngish m-class types write on Facebook.Pure hatred of rural Thais and crazy nationalism, straight out of the PAD playbook - although most profess to be multi-colored.Sad thing is some are my colleagues and friends.When I attempt to query their position, they look at me pityingly and say "Dear Khun Jayboy, how difficult it must be for foreigners - even someone like you - to understand the complexities of Thai politics."

A bit over the top maybe but that's not what I noted first. There are obviously extremists on both sides of the fence yet you choose to bash one side only and you selectively mention a minor case to prove your case, when on the other hand people have died because of the very same extremism (no matter what color). Thus you come across as a biased individual with a colored opinion...

I'm wondering whether the spoiled brat who ran his Porsche aground was arrested and charged? Maybe he'll get the faux 10 years thing like Moo Ham who ran his Mercedes into a crowd at a bus stop (he didn't care much for poor people so it was entirely understandable I guess, and his daddy did pay some compensation to the families of the victims)...talking about Moo Ham, does anyone know what happened....the whole of TVF was cheering last year when he got his 10 years....but then it emerged he was out on bail (not reported in the original newspaper reports, must've been an entirely innocent slip)...not heard anything about it since...maybe they're considering a cabinet post for him?

Redsunset · May 6, 2010

I agree with Chuan Leek Pai... Abhisit compromised "rule of law."
His five conditions are ambiguous and nonsense. Of course most would agree to these "motherhood and apple pie" statements... that is like saying "education needs to be available for everyone." Most would agree with this comment. But how you go about achieving it, who get the benefits, and who pays for it is the problem.

Also, no way the leaders will agree to NOT have amnesty... NO WAY. They will parlay the "hey the yellow shirts did it and got off scot free!" card.

Forget it... a guy like Nattawut go to jail without a fight... NO F'ing WAY!!!!!!

Deal the way it is written is a NO GO.

Umm, they already agreed to NOT have amnesty.. Something tells me you're not reading UDD announcements?

And damned right Nattawut won't go to jail without a fight.. in court. Someone somewhere will have to come up with something better than a blanket allegation of 'inciting terrorism and underminging the monarchy', though.

lols! There are so many "reports" and newspaper articles and updates on blogs, that by the time people post stuff on here, it is outdated! Now I hear the red shirts have condemned the peace proposal and what Abhisit to resign immediately!!!! Maybe it is best if at night the red shirts slipped out and the yellow shirts slipped in... just change places at Ratchaprasong!

Redsunset · May 6, 2010

Time calls Abhisit a Statesman. I've been saying that for months. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...1987118,00.html

Yes, and it is heartening that the western press FINALLY got it right and realized the reds were violent insurgents rather than peace and freedom loving democracy fighters such as in Burma. What took them so long? The coverage for so long was totally biased in favor of the insurgents.

But as videos and photos emerged of Red Shirts or protest sympathizers firing assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades at soldiers, it became clear that the protest had become an armed insurgency.

Abhisit is a "gentleman" not a statesman... A statesman has courage enough to make the RIGHT decision, no matter how tough. The right decision is to disperse the protesters and capture the leaders and preserve the "rule of law.".... how? Heck I don't know.... but maybe they should start by cordoning off the area and preventing supplies and people from moving in and out of the red shirt zone.

Redsunset · May 6, 2010

Time calls Abhisit a Statesman. I've been saying that for months. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...1987118,00.html

Abhisit is a GENTLEMAN, not a Statesman.

A statesman is like Winston Churchill.... gets TOUGH things done by MAKING HARD decisions.

Not negotiating a wishy washy proposal to eek out of a jam.... although I empathize fully with why he did what he did....

Redsunset · May 6, 2010

See you all back here to discuss the yellow shirt protests and the back and forth, never-ending political bickering between the haves and the have nots.... between those in power, and those who seek power...
Fact is, I'm happy the protests are coming to an end... maybe just accepting a compromise to get out of this precarious situation is the best, but it can lead to greater problems in the future.

I don't like the ambiguous nature of the proposal, and at the very least, more specifics need to be identified to assess compliance with the "five conditions" for BOTH sides.... clarity, objectivity will help lessen the fighting and arguing later on.

Redsunset yet again we agree. The problem that I see now is that everyone knows they can hold the country to ransom by acting illegaly and win. This doesn't bode well for the future in Thailand but they are thinking what the hel_l we're Buddhists and only the present is of importance.

Landofthefree, if we agree too often, others might think we are in collusion!

To your point - the Yellow shirts have just picked up on the risk you have mentioned.... they have CONDEMNED the proposal and they are asking the PM to resign because he has given the reds a "pass" and he has been unable to solve the crisis!

Redsunset · May 6, 2010

YES BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THIS IS WHY THIS PROPOSAL IS INCOMPLETE!!!!
Now, as I've said over and over again, I do not like it. You can't craft an effective proposal in a few days (especially when two sides do not trust each other and so vehemently disagree) with only one side doing all the crafting... but for the sake of peace, I understand why people will accept it in its raw form.

But believe me, too many arguements and fights are started when people start with generalities, but then when reality hits, they have different assumptions as to HOW to achieve these generalities.... Cases in points..... MARRIAGES! Most people get married with the best intentions, and with the same objectives, but then why are there so many divorces? I'll say the same for business partnerships too.... lols

Good post! It is actually an important issue although there is a certain tradition to this process. See for example all the government contracts that end in dispute and lawsuits on a regual base...

Motoon, an excellent exampe!

WinnieTheKhwai · May 6, 2010

I agree with Chuan Leek Pai... Abhisit compromised "rule of law."
His five conditions are ambiguous and nonsense. Of course most would agree to these "motherhood and apple pie" statements... that is like saying "education needs to be available for everyone." Most would agree with this comment. But how you go about achieving it, who get the benefits, and who pays for it is the problem.

Also, no way the leaders will agree to NOT have amnesty... NO WAY. They will parlay the "hey the yellow shirts did it and got off scot free!" card.

Forget it... a guy like Nattawut go to jail without a fight... NO F'ing WAY!!!!!!

Deal the way it is written is a NO GO.

Umm, they already agreed to NOT have amnesty.. Something tells me you're not reading UDD announcements?

And damned right Nattawut won't go to jail without a fight.. in court. Someone somewhere will have to come up with something better than a blanket allegation of 'inciting terrorism and underminging the monarchy', though.

lols! There are so many "reports" and newspaper articles and updates on blogs, that by the time people post stuff on here, it is outdated! Now I hear the red shirts have condemned the peace proposal and what Abhisit to resign immediately!!!! Maybe it is best if at night the red shirts slipped out and the yellow shirts slipped in... just change places at Ratchaprasong!

LOL.. Ok, that made me smile. Would save them from having to take down the barricades and clean up the mess.. they can just leave them in place.

To be honest, judging from PAD's language, they're not too far away either!! Did you see the below article?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/...D-30128683.html

Why, they sound almost as rabid as some forum members! (not you, of course.)

pornsasi · May 6, 2010

Time calls Abhisit a Statesman. I've been saying that for months. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8...1987118,00.html

Yes, and it is heartening that the western press FINALLY got it right and realized the reds were violent insurgents rather than peace and freedom loving democracy fighters such as in Burma. What took them so long? The coverage for so long was totally biased in favor of the insurgents.

But as videos and photos emerged of Red Shirts or protest sympathizers firing assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades at soldiers, it became clear that the protest had become an armed insurgency.

Abhisit is a "gentleman" not a statesman... A statesman has courage enough to make the RIGHT decision, no matter how tough. The right decision is to disperse the protesters and capture the leaders and preserve the "rule of law.".... how? Heck I don't know.... but maybe they should start by cordoning off the area and preventing supplies and people from moving in and out of the red shirt zone.

So in your opinion he was wrong not to use more violence against the red shirts ?

Are you a yellow ?

By the way the yellows just asked for the PM resignation

Edited May 6, 2010 by pornsasi

Redsunset · May 6, 2010