Thai By-Election Sunday A Key Test For Rival Camps

[webfact]

Thai by-election Sunday a key test for rival camps

Government candidate takes on red-shirt leader in what is seen as gauge of public's view of recent crackdown

Nirmal Ghosh

The Straits Times

A by-election on Sunday (July 25) will be the first test at the ballot box for Thailand's two bitterly opposed political camps, since the violence of April and May that left 90 dead.

The incumbent politician - whose death opened up the seat - was a Democrat Party man.

But the winner of Bangkok's Constituency 6 fight had always won by narrow margins - less than 10,000 votes separated the top three finishers in the last election.

Voters in the ward, located at the edge of Thailand's sprawling capital, have six candidates to pick from.

But it is essentially a contest between Kokaew Pikulthong of the opposition Puea Thai Party and Panich Vikitsreth of the ruling Democrat Party.

Both candidates, in their mid-40s, are more than what they seem.

Kokaew, a businessman, cannot campaign. He is detained, without charges, in Bangkok Remand Prison for his part in anti-government 'red shirt' protests in Bangkok in April and May that eventually turned violent. The 90 people killed were mostly civilians and close to 2,000 were injured in the clashes.

Kokaew is considered to have violated the government's emergency decree. The military-backed Abhisit Vejjajiva administration considers him a 'terrorist'.

Kokaew was part of the leadership - albeit one of the moderates - of the red-shirted United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.

Many of its leaders are in jail or on the run after the government's crackdown on the movement.

In the other camp is Panich, until recently assigned as deputy to Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya.

Kasit was an outspoken supporter of the right wing, royalist People's Alliance for Democracy, which is bitterly opposed to the red shirts.

Panich, educated in Bangkok and Boston, was also in the car that was savagely attacked by a mob of red shirts at the Interior Ministry in Bangkok in April last year, escaping serious injury only by pretending to be a journalist.

The contest is thus up close and personal for both candidates.

With the emergency law still in place across Bangkok, the playing field seems to favour the ruling party.

But at a Puea Thai campaign rally last Friday, at least 4,500 people turned up - most wearing red shirts.

The red shirts and the Puea Thai, so far in an overlapping and symbiotic relationship, are now openly and obviously one and the same.

That so many red shirts assembled when many are afraid of the government and the army is significant, and the point has not been lost on the Democrat Party.

The party has fielded its own heavy hitters in recent days to campaign for Panich, who told The Straits Times on the phone Saturday (July 24) evening, minutes after campaigning officially ended, that he had campaigned for 30 straight days.

The significance of the election is "huge", he said.

If he won, it would be a vindication of the government's actions - including the crackdown on the red-shirt movement.

"But if we lose, it will be the voice of the people saying we don't want this government any more," he said.

Puea Thai deputy leader Plodprasop Suraswadi told The Straits Times: "It is more important for the government to win this than it is for us.

"First, they have to win; second, they have to win by a big margin, otherwise they cannot claim that the majority of Bangkokians are against the red shirts."

-- ANN 2010-07-25

[Thailand]

"Kokaew, a businessman, cannot campaign. He is detained, without charges, in Bangkok Remand Prison for his part in anti-government 'red shirt' protests in Bangkok in April and May that eventually turned violent. The 90 people killed were mostly civilians and close to 2,000 were injured in the clashes.

Kokaew is considered to have violated the government's emergency decree. The military-backed Abhisit Vejjajiva administration considers him a 'terrorist'."

Already convicted?

[SomTumTiger]

Dems win in a blowout - wait and see.

[Robby nz]

"Kokaew, a businessman, cannot campaign. He is detained, without charges, in Bangkok Remand Prison for his part in anti-government 'red shirt' protests in Bangkok in April and May that eventually turned violent. The 90 people killed were mostly civilians and close to 2,000 were injured in the clashes.

Kokaew is considered to have violated the government's emergency decree. The military-backed Abhisit Vejjajiva administration considers him a 'terrorist'."

Already convicted?

Balls!

Have you seen what his campaign stand is?

Bring back Thaksin, pardon for him his buddies, and the yellows as an afterthought, and sympathy, "I cant see my wife and child" cry, cry, cry.

Not a thing about what the PTP would do for the country.

We will see the prelim result soon.

Hay he managed to take a fair bit of time off his business recently, perhaps the pay was better.

Edited July 25, 2010 by Robby nz

[mazeltov]

Dems win in a blowout - wait and see.

What a victory will that be when the opposition candidate is detained in remand prison, without charges ...

[mazeltov]

Dems win in a blowout - wait and see.

What a victory will that be when the opposition candidate is detained in remand prison, without charges ...

yep, there is nothing much to say nor to add. you are 100% correct.

[jayjay0]

"Kokaew, a businessman, cannot campaign. He is detained, without charges, in Bangkok Remand Prison for his part in anti-government 'red shirt' protests in Bangkok in April and May that eventually turned violent. The 90 people killed were mostly civilians and close to 2,000 were injured in the clashes.

Kokaew is considered to have violated the government's emergency decree. The military-backed Abhisit Vejjajiva administration considers him a 'terrorist'."

Already convicted?

NO what ever gave you that idea or should I say who ever gave you that idea.

[Robby nz]

Dems win in a blowout - wait and see.

What a victory will that be when the opposition candidate is detained in remand prison, without charges ...

Indeed thats why they chose him so they would have some sort of a lame excuse when they lose.

Vote counting so far shows Dems over 50%, PTP a bit over 40%

Exit polls Dems 52%, PTP 40%

[mazeltov]

Dems win in a blowout - wait and see.

What a victory will that be when the opposition candidate is detained in remand prison, without charges ...

Indeed thats why they chose him so they would have some sort of a lame excuse when they lose.

Vote counting so far shows Dems over 50%, PTP a bit over 40%

Exit polls Dems 52%, PTP 40%

Looks like PTP didn't get significant less than in 2007.

[rubl]

Dems win in a blowout - wait and see.

What a victory will that be when the opposition candidate is detained in remand prison, without charges ...

Indeed thats why they chose him so they would have some sort of a lame excuse when they lose.

Vote counting so far shows Dems over 50%, PTP a bit over 40%

Exit polls Dems 52%, PTP 40%

Looks like PTP didn't get significant less than in 2007.

More-or-less as expected. Some areas in BKK are mostly 'red', some 'yellow', etc. Those who were pro-red don't change their mind so easily, neither other colors. Humans are sometimes so predictable.

[animatic]

The Red Talking Head had his political machine and backers out campaigning,

he had plenty of press coverage, people knew what he was about and

what he stood for. So 40% of the area is hardcore Red and the rest isn't...

big surprise.

He gained little or nothing for a sympaythy vote, if anything he lost more,

but now the spin starts and big ass excuses for how the WHOLE COUNTRY

backs the Reds and it was ONLY him being in prison for as yet unresolved

terrorism charges is why he lost... yada yada yada.

This is the best he can Weng on about. The reality; his ass was whupped publicly.

In most countries he would never have gotten to run at all.

In any case he did not get the hoped for landslide of GENERAL public opinion,

He got a bunch of those that are allready buying his party line and no more.

Clear victory for Panich no question, a true majority if exit polls ring true.

The government lost nothing visibly hear and is similar to the last election round.

The reds and PTP have screwed the pooch and just don't realize it yet.

Edited July 25, 2010 by animatic

[mazeltov]

More-or-less as expected. Some areas in BKK are mostly 'red', some 'yellow', etc. Those who were pro-red don't change their mind so easily, neither other colors. Humans are sometimes so predictable.

You are probably right. and it proves all wrong who kept saying that the reds lost all their support and representing only a small tiny minority.

good luck with reconciliation dems.

[george]

Update:

Government set to win crucial Thai election: exit poll

BANGKOK, July 25, 2010 (AFP) - The Thai government looked set for victory Sunday in a "litmus test" by-election, according to exit polls in the country's first parliamentary race since mass opposition rallies rocked the capital.

Pitting a leader of the "Red Shirt" anti-government movement, detained on terrorism charges, against a member of the elite-backed ruling party, the election was seen as a telling indicator of public opinion after the protests.

After residents cast their vote amid a heavy police presence, ruling Democrat Party candidate Panich Vikitsreth looked set to clinch victory with 52.77 percent, according to exit polls by Rajabhat Suan Dusit University.

Red Shirt leader Kokaew Pikulthong, who a court allowed to leave prison briefly last month to register for the by-election, was expected to take 40.93 percent in the by-election, triggered by the death of a ruling-party lawmaker.

Kokaew, a candidate for the opposition Puea Thai (For Thais) party -- who has not been convicted of any crime -- was denied his request to be released to campaign and had to rely on Red Shirt allies to win support in the coveted constituency.

The vote comes two months after the army broke up the Reds' rally in the heart of Bangkok and Thai society remains deeply divided following the political violence, in which 90 people died and about 1,900 were injured.

The recent protests by the Reds -- many of whom back fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra -- attracted up to 100,000 people demanding immediate elections, but most of the leaders are now behind bars.

The Reds, who hail Thaksin's policies for the poor, view the government as elitist and undemocratic because it came to power after a court ruling threw out the previous administration.

The government has rejected calls from the opposition for a state of emergency to be lifted in Bangkok for the parliamentary race, citing lingering fears of unrest.

The ruling Democrat Party has traditionally enjoyed solid support in Bangkok and by-election candidate Panich has brushed aside suggestions he would benefit from the detention of his main rival.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2010-07-25

[rubl]

More-or-less as expected. Some areas in BKK are mostly 'red', some 'yellow', etc. Those who were pro-red don't change their mind so easily, neither other colors. Humans are sometimes so predictable.

You are probably right. and it proves all wrong who kept saying that the reds lost all their support and representing only a small tiny minority.

good luck with reconciliation dems.

Don't forget that the election was in a minor, BKK constituency. It's not easy to translate into a general trend in all of Thailand. Even comparing results now with those from the previous time are tricky.

[jayjay0]

More-or-less as expected. Some areas in BKK are mostly 'red', some 'yellow', etc. Those who were pro-red don't change their mind so easily, neither other colors. Humans are sometimes so predictable.

You are probably right. and it proves all wrong who kept saying that the reds lost all their support and representing only a small tiny minority.

good luck with reconciliation dems.

It would be a big help if you red shirts could say we have different ideas can we talk and both of us come to some decisions. Think of the peoples lives that could have been saved if you had taken that attitude. The my way or the high way attitude only hurts all parties involved.

How big is the red shirts? I live in Chiang Mai there supposed stronghold and all they could muster out of a population of over 200,000 was 100 people to greet the returning 300. Of course there was some who couldn't make the celebration they were busy burning tires and fire engines. Another thing I noticed that they were not around unless I went to there assembly points you did not see them. They seem to be pack animals and not the sharpest tools in the shed with a self serving non team player unless he is the leader and you do as you are told as a leader. I refer to Thaksin.

I don't know what the final count on the vote is but I was wondering how many of the votes for Pikulthong were actually votes against Abhisit. Kinda like in the states where a lot of people were voting for Obamma but really against McKahn.

[animatic]

The reds lost in their most indoctrinated and controlled segment of Bangkok.

Mostly filled with up country reds who already were buying or were brainwashed

or leveraged into the party line. No doubt the hardcore were going nowhere but PTP,

when they are already indoctrinated to think all opposition is nothing but lies,

they go and vote for those who did the brainwashing right on schedule.

This proves nothing of any great red gains or progress, it's is just the same people

that the Thaksin machine has reeled in and us using for their own ends.

Seems few, if any people other than this segment were swayed more red because

of the removal from racha' that THEY made more violent.

No red gains in even the slightest margin, loses if anything.

Is this the whole country, no, just a microcosm.

Edited July 25, 2010 by animatic

[otherstuff1957]

In the last elections there were only 10,000 votes separating the Dem and the PT candidates - with a total of 390,000 eligible voters that about 3% of the vote if everyone voted or 6% of the vote if only 1/2 the people voted. An increase of 4 - 7% is not particularly surprising. I would imagine that the top Dems are rather disappointed that the margin wasn't bigger.

I doubt if the PT leaders are surprised at losing, they're probably relieved that it wasn't a landslide for the Dem.

[draftvader]

How is this a demographic representation of the country? Just think about the "focal points" in this ward. We have many stunning Royal Palaces, a couple of military barracks and Parliament. How many local people are employed, or make money from those that are employed, at these places? I feel that a close victory for the yellows should certainly be encouraging for the number crunchers in the red camp if they have any understanding of demographic analysis. Sadly, based off the levels of understanding shown by the writer of the article, this is highly unlikely as this person feels this vote is representative of the country. However, if just shows that these people aren't wasting the "tax payers" money on expensive independent analysis.....hopefully that is encouraging to somebody.

[jayboy]

The reds lost in their most indoctrinated and controlled segment of Bangkok.

Mostly filled with up country reds who already were buying or were brainwashed

or leveraged into the party line. No doubt the hardcore were going nowhere but PTP,

when they are already indoctrinated to think all opposition is nothing but lies,

they go and vote for those who did the brainwashing right on schedule.

This proves nothing of any great red gains or progress, it's is just the same people

that the Thaksin machine has reeled in and us using for their own ends.

Seems few, if any people other than this segment were swayed more red because

of the removal from racha' that THEY made more violent.

No red gains in even the slightest margin, loses if anything.

Is this the whole country, no, just a microcosm.

Whistling in the dark, or perhaps just the same old gobblededook.Nobody with a clue ever thought this constituency was a reflection of the country as a whole

For the non doctrinated, the result was much as expected and not too far from the position last time round. Neither the PTP nor the Dems will be too displeased.It shows perhaps that in this corner of Bangkok Abhisit is seen as having put in a respectable performance but that the Reds haven't lost out.In other words not much change.

[philw]

The reds lost in their most indoctrinated and controlled segment of Bangkok.

Mostly filled with up country reds who already were buying or were brainwashed

or leveraged into the party line. No doubt the hardcore were going nowhere but PTP,

when they are already indoctrinated to think all opposition is nothing but lies,

they go and vote for those who did the brainwashing right on schedule.

This proves nothing of any great red gains or progress, it's is just the same people

that the Thaksin machine has reeled in and us using for their own ends.

Seems few, if any people other than this segment were swayed more red because

of the removal from racha' that THEY made more violent.

No red gains in even the slightest margin, loses if anything.

Is this the whole country, no, just a microcosm.

Whistling in the dark, or perhaps just the same old gobblededook.Nobody with a clue ever thought this constituency was a reflection of the country as a whole

For the non doctrinated, the result was much as expected and not too far from the position last time round. Neither the PTP nor the Dems will be too displeased.It shows perhaps that in this corner of Bangkok Abhisit is seen as having put in a respectable performance but that the Reds haven't lost out.In other words not much change.

Yes, agree and one would have expected quite a swing to the Dems given the BKK reaction to the red shirt violence, the pro Gov't TV and media propaganda, the imprisonment of the PTP candidate etc.

I doubt if this result will greatly please the Dems who need a massive swing in their favour to endorse the coup and their handling of recent events.

No real change in voting pattern can be taken as encouraging for PTP.

Any allegations of vote buying yet ??

[rogercw]

The PTP is the red-shirt party, this is a given. Most of the red-shirt media outlets have been shut down by the government. Many of the red-shirt leaders are in prison. All operating media outlets are censored by the government either openly or not.

The red-shirts/PTP still, even in very adverse political coditions, got about the same percentage of the vote as last time in this district. The political stalemate will continue it seems with a government kept in power by military force.

[rubl]

The reds lost in their most indoctrinated and controlled segment of Bangkok.

Mostly filled with up country reds who already were buying or were brainwashed

or leveraged into the party line. No doubt the hardcore were going nowhere but PTP,

when they are already indoctrinated to think all opposition is nothing but lies,

they go and vote for those who did the brainwashing right on schedule.

This proves nothing of any great red gains or progress, it's is just the same people

that the Thaksin machine has reeled in and us using for their own ends.

Seems few, if any people other than this segment were swayed more red because

of the removal from racha' that THEY made more violent.

No red gains in even the slightest margin, loses if anything.

Is this the whole country, no, just a microcosm.

Whistling in the dark, or perhaps just the same old gobblededook.Nobody with a clue ever thought this constituency was a reflection of the country as a whole

For the non doctrinated, the result was much as expected and not too far from the position last time round. Neither the PTP nor the Dems will be too displeased.It shows perhaps that in this corner of Bangkok Abhisit is seen as having put in a respectable performance but that the Reds haven't lost out.In other words not much change.

Yes, agree and one would have expected quite a swing to the Dems given the BKK reaction to the red shirt violence, the pro Gov't TV and media propaganda, the imprisonment of the PTP candidate etc.

I doubt if this result will greatly please the Dems who need a massive swing in their favour to endorse the coup and their handling of recent events.

No real change in voting pattern can be taken as encouraging for PTP.

Any allegations of vote buying yet ??

As I wrote earlier, people don't change their beliefs that quickly or easily. Some BKK areas saw active participation from locals around 19/20 May. Those will still vote PTP. Some may switch, but not necessarily to the Dem's. IMHO the Dem's should be happy with a few more votes than they had in that constituency the previous time. As for endorsing the 2006 coup, who needs that? Lots of people in BKK and elsewhere seemed happy as far as I can remember. Handling of recent events is probably much more relevant.

[somo]

Most of the reds that live and work there are not registered to vote in the constitiuency and have gone home for the holiday. It is quite suprising that so many Bangkok redidents / registered voters have continued to support the reds. Not an encouraging result for the goverment.

[philw]

Most of the reds that live and work there are not registered to vote in the constitiuency and have gone home for the holiday. It is quite suprising that so many Bangkok redidents / registered voters have continued to support the reds. Not an encouraging result for the goverment.

Very good point.

Any idea how many people that could be ?

[rubl]

Most of the reds that live and work there are not registered to vote in the constitiuency and have gone home for the holiday. It is quite suprising that so many Bangkok redidents / registered voters have continued to support the reds. Not an encouraging result for the goverment.

Keep in mind that there is a difference between 'reds' and UDD member / supporters. A lot of the grievances are very valid. In the past the PTP and predecessors 'took care' in a way appreciated. The Dem's tend to talk a lot, but do less. Bangkok has lots of poor residents who may feel cheated. Voting PTP then comes natural. If the Dem's have more votes now than in the previous election there they can already be happy.

All this is a generalisation of course.

[whybother]

The PTP is the red-shirt party, this is a given. Most of the red-shirt media outlets have been shut down by the government. Many of the red-shirt leaders are in prison. All operating media outlets are censored by the government either openly or not.

The red-shirts/PTP still, even in very adverse political coditions, got about the same percentage of the vote as last time in this district. The political stalemate will continue it seems with a government kept in power by military force.

the red shirt party probably got more media because the candidate was in prison. and most voters don't care who's running. they vote for the party regardless.

[Robby nz]

Latest numbers I saw on tele wrere:

Dems 96k +

PT 81k +

about a 10% difference

I see the red supporters who were saying how PTP would win are now saying a loss is good news for them, spin, spin, spin.

[somo]

Most of the reds that live and work there are not registered to vote in the constitiuency and have gone home for the holiday. It is quite suprising that so many Bangkok redidents / registered voters have continued to support the reds. Not an encouraging result for the goverment.

Very good point.

Any idea how many people that could be ?

No idea of the numbers. Just know that everyone has to go back home to vote and can't do so where they happen to work and live for 50 weeks of the year. The red vote in this election has come from Bangkok born and bred residents and nothing to do with essan workers who come to town to work. For that reason I don't think the gov can take much encouragement from it and shows the demos didn't harm the populations sympathy for the reds.

[rubl]

Most of the reds that live and work there are not registered to vote in the constitiuency and have gone home for the holiday. It is quite suprising that so many Bangkok redidents / registered voters have continued to support the reds. Not an encouraging result for the goverment.

Very good point.

Any idea how many people that could be ?

No idea of the numbers. Just know that everyone has to go back home to vote and can't do so where they happen to work and live for 50 weeks of the year. The red vote in this election has come from Bangkok born and bred residents and nothing to do with essan workers who come to town to work. For that reason I don't think the gov can take much encouragement from it and shows the demos didn't harm the populations sympathy for the reds.

Something wrong in that reasoning. The previous election in that district was three (four?) years ago. At that time it was PTP 42%, DEM 45%. Same voters then and now. Indication now is DEM near 20% more votes than PTP, no further details yet.

[philw]

Most of the reds that live and work there are not registered to vote in the constitiuency and have gone home for the holiday. It is quite suprising that so many Bangkok redidents / registered voters have continued to support the reds. Not an encouraging result for the goverment.

Very good point.

Any idea how many people that could be ?

No idea of the numbers. Just know that everyone has to go back home to vote and can't do so where they happen to work and live for 50 weeks of the year. The red vote in this election has come from Bangkok born and bred residents and nothing to do with essan workers who come to town to work. For that reason I don't think the gov can take much encouragement from it and shows the demos didn't harm the populations sympathy for the reds.

yeah, think you are right.

Very interesting result with big implications.

phil