If All Foreigners Would Leave This Country...

[Berkshire]

It's just online conversation. No harm. It's fun.

Like playing marry, kill, boff.

Understand...although I'm sure you realize the OP has an agenda.

An agenda ? Such as ? I think it's an interesting conversation.

But... seen the overall situation (visa rules/politics/social/cultural issues) it might be even not that 'fictive' at all !

Simply put, you're clearly wanting to overstate your importance to the Thai economy. But I don't understand why you would bring up "tourists" (and by extension, FDI). Has there been some sort of new government policy to prohibit tourism and foreign investment? Of course not. But your case would be rather weak if you didn't include those categories, wouldn't it? Why don't we just stick to the longstay farangs, that category that complains the most, yet contributes the least to the Thai economy.

[Darrel]

I suspect that the 7% refers only to short-time tourists entering on tourist visas and does not include anyone entering on any sort of longer visa or waiver. Nor, I suspect, does it include money spent on houses/condos, remittances to Thai dependents, salaries originating outside Thailand and paid to farangs resident here, salaries paid to those with WPs, small business investments etc etc

I wouldnt be all surprised if the total amount for all those far exceeded one third of GDP.

All that aside, Pattaya is now Thailand's second city (quite funny really when one remembers that 35 years ago it was just a village) but if all the farang left it would be a ghost town and its economy would collapse completely.

Pointless subject though as it's not going to happen.

[mstribling]

Jurgen- What are you trolling me for?

I love America. You hate America.

Of course we matter. Let go of the hate.

I've noticed you seem to refer to the truth as " hate " quite often...

Thats because it is what it is.

When you single out people based upon their nationality, and proceed to verbal attack them.

It is hatred.

You can look through my post history. I don't hate on people for were their born.

I am not however, like many people, ashamed of my country, and wont sit by and let people tell lies.

I'm amazed that people who have never lived in America, are suddenly experts because of the Internet, and a news channel.

I've been to Europe, but certainly wouldn't suggest I know everything about it. So I don't mention it.

I never once initiated contact with you or Jurgen, yet he goes about making statements such as "As if they still mattered."

And you mention fighting China and $$.

You can be snide all you like. I don't care.

But don't let the smooth taste fool you.

Stick to what you do best. Hating on Thai people.

Now. Back on topic.

I doubt there would be much decline aside from the immediate families that depend on farang money.

I would venture to say, we as long-stay visitors to the kingdom, contribute little.

Edited March 30, 2011 by mstribling

[samran]

double post

Edited March 30, 2011 by samran

[samran]

I suspect that the 7% refers only to short-time tourists entering on tourist visas and does not include anyone entering on any sort of longer visa or waiver. Nor, I suspect, does it include money spent on houses/condos, remittances to Thai dependents, salaries originating outside Thailand and paid to farangs resident here, salaries paid to those with WPs, small business investments etc etc

I wouldnt be all surprised if the total amount for all those far exceeded one third of GDP.

I think you have what is called Messiah complex.

The entire Thai economy has a GDP of $584 Billion per annum or thereabouts

You are suggesting that these things you mention above account for around $200 Billion? Given most of these are based on external remittances ie exports technically, how does that account for the fact that Thai exports are circa $195 billion. So remittances, money given to households are larger than say the car export industry in Thailand which is one of the largest in the region - you know the 'Detroit of Asia'?

To use another comparison, the Thai government has a annual budget of around $75 Billion. Are you saying, that all these things you identify are bigger than the Thai government? You know, the government which builds roads, buildings and other infrastructure, pays millions of civil servants salaries, looks after 4 or 5 dozen state owned enterprises and a couple of dozen essential services.

I mean, there are some delusional posts here on TV. But your one about takes the cake.

[David006]

I suspect that the 7% refers only to short-time tourists entering on tourist visas and does not include anyone entering on any sort of longer visa or waiver. Nor, I suspect, does it include money spent on houses/condos, remittances to Thai dependents, salaries originating outside Thailand and paid to farangs resident here, salaries paid to those with WPs, small business investments etc etc

I wouldnt be all surprised if the total amount for all those far exceeded one third of GDP.

I think you have what is called Messiah complex.

The entire Thai economy has a GDP of $584 Billion per annum or thereabouts

You are suggesting that these things you mention above account for around $200 Billion? Given most of these are based on external remittances ie exports technically, how does that account for the fact that Thai exports are circa $195 billion. So remittances, money given to households are larger than say the car export industry in Thailand which is one of the largest in the region - you know the 'Detroit of Asia'?

To use another comparison, the Thai government has a annual budget of around $75 Billion. Are you saying, that all these things you identify are bigger than the Thai government? You know, the government which builds roads, buildings and other infrastructure, pays millions of civil servants salaries, looks after 4 or 5 dozen state owned enterprises and a couple of dozen essential services.

I mean, there are some delusional posts here on TV. But your one about takes the cake.

5555 ....yes it must raining everybody is sooo bored...this thread is just such much hypothetical rhetoric giving the usual TV "super" Farangs a chance to vent I guess..so many still thinking Thailand is some third rate/world economy "yeah mate... if not for us they would still be living in trees..wan' anuvva pint?...can't drink too much tho' gotta teach a bunch o' foreigners a bloody doctorate course in economics and political science this arvo"...sad..

[Gaccha]

@ Berkshire - "But the impact of longstay expats on the economy is so inconsequential and insignificant as to not even be worth talking about."

I'm not so sure. Your statement may be true in Bangkok and similar areas, but the impact of long-stay expats on the economy (and culture) in Northern Thailand is significant. Not only is it worth talking about, it's worth studying. Has anyone seen any readable studies on "Effects of Long-Term Expats on Northern Thailand Culture and Economy"? There would have to be at least two separate areas of study, the northeast and the northwest. (I would be more interested in the northeast as I have not yet been to the northwest.)

Academics will do research depending on the money that comes to them. You need to be aware of the political economy of research. So it is unsuprising to reveal to you that most articles are STI/AIDS orientated:

e.g.

'Lovelorn Farangs: The Correspondence between Foreign Men and Thai Girls'

Erik Cohen; Anthropological Quarterly, Vol. 59, No. 3 (Jul., 1986), pp. 115-127

There are even articles of the reverse (thais sending remittances to Thailand):

'Remittances and ‘Social Remittances’: Their Impact on Livelihoods of Thai Women in the Netherlands and Non-migrants in Thailand', Panitee Suksomboon

Gender, Technology and Development, September/December 2008; vol. 12, 3: pp. 461-482.

It strikes me that academics are far more likely to analyse the anxiety of expats in attempting to generate an identity of belonging and legitimacy via their economic offerings. Many of the farang in Issan are lower middle-class or working class so will struggle with the re-ordering of identity required to be the 'immigrant'.

e.g.

'Western retirees in Thailand: motives, experiences, wellbeing, assimilation and future needs' RW Howard - Ageing and Society, 2008 - Cambridge Univ Press

What your asking for is a fairly straightforward economistic approach to the research. I am sure the Thai government has done unpublished research on this. But you don't need peer-reviewed papers to do something that simple. The academics are going to be looking at the social 'plays' and ploys that the women must go through as mostly sex workers in the urban areas and the way they use the money and farang marriage to negotiate/ gain social prestige and so on.

[rocky3]

Does anyone know how many expats are living here and from what countries?

[mstribling]

Does anyone know how many expats are living here and from what countries?

Immigration probably has a close idea.

[Gaccha]

Does anyone know how many expats are living here and from what countries?

No. It all depends on what you mean by 'living' here. And what is an 'expat'.

Is a person to be classed as de facto living here if on a series of tourist visas? Is an 'expat' those from certain countries excluding others?

There are some 4 million Burmese, with around 200,000 of them classed as 'legal illegals'. Just a rounding error of them would be enough to count all the farang. You then have Vietnamese migrants, laotian immigrants, the hilltribes... Chinese nationalist refugees etc.

having said all that, there are old figures for farang with work visas. The Japanese have three times more workers than the largest farang group. The largest contingent of farang is Brits at around the 10,000 mark. Trivial numbers by any stretch.

[mark45y]

I suspect that the 7% refers only to short-time tourists entering on tourist visas and does not include anyone entering on any sort of longer visa or waiver. Nor, I suspect, does it include money spent on houses/condos, remittances to Thai dependents, salaries originating outside Thailand and paid to farangs resident here, salaries paid to those with WPs, small business investments etc etc

I wouldnt be all surprised if the total amount for all those far exceeded one third of GDP.

I think you have what is called Messiah complex.

The entire Thai economy has a GDP of $584 Billion per annum or thereabouts

You are suggesting that these things you mention above account for around $200 Billion? Given most of these are based on external remittances ie exports technically, how does that account for the fact that Thai exports are circa $195 billion. So remittances, money given to households are larger than say the car export industry in Thailand which is one of the largest in the region - you know the 'Detroit of Asia'?

To use another comparison, the Thai government has a annual budget of around $75 Billion. Are you saying, that all these things you identify are bigger than the Thai government? You know, the government which builds roads, buildings and other infrastructure, pays millions of civil servants salaries, looks after 4 or 5 dozen state owned enterprises and a couple of dozen essential services.

I mean, there are some delusional posts here on TV. But your one about takes the cake.

Due to the multiplier effect of tourist dollars and ex pat dollars flowing into the country the actual economic impact is somewhere around 30% of GDP. Or $175 billion.

[geriatrickid]

Jurgen- What are you trolling me for?

I love America. You hate America.

Of course we matter. Let go of the hate.

I don't hate America, just stating facts.

Actually I love America, just don't try to rule my world.

Uhh, let's be fair. If you are referring to Europe, the last time the USA had an on ground presence was when a creepy little man tried to rule the world and the USA was shedding the blood of a young generation helping ensure that it didn't happen. The USA rebuilt that land of nasty killers and didn't get much of a thank you for it either. It's been Europeans that have tried to rule the world over the past few centuries. If you mean in SE Asia, specifically Thailand, please note that it is Thailand that invites the US presence. one need only look at the fuss that is kicked up when US naval vessels do not dock in a Thai port. How many Chinese naval vessels are welcomed? BTW, have you noticed that Japan seems quite happy to take US aid at this time? For some strange reason, no one in Okinawa is protesting the US navy presence anymore. And guess what? I'm not an American. I'll gladly take the US presence over most other countries (except the Danish and Dutch, since they are the best looking Europeans )

However, lets get back to reality. If 90% of foreigners had to leave Thailand it would mean a catastrophic event had occurred like a nuclear meltdown or a war. Does anyone really want to contemplate such an event or even wish it to happen on this beautiful country? Worst case scenarios would entail horrible consequences for the Thai people and at the end of the day, no matter how much the <deleted> tuktuk thugs annoy me, I am not prepared to see everyone suffer because of a handful of slimebags. In the south here, people are experiencing hardship. The hardship that causes 90% of foreigners to leave. It's called catastrophic flooding. My friend called me this morning to ask if I could do some favours for him since he has to rush to Trang. The water is waist high in his village and he has parents that are 80 years+ that he has to go and rescue. (Although, his father is probably tough enough not to need rescuing and will most likely have to go and pull bobo out a ditch when his car drives into it.) Let's just be grateful for a fairly peaceful place to hang our hats and toupees.

[GM1955]

Thats because it is what it is.

When you single out people based upon their nationality, and proceed to verbal attack them.

It is hatred.

Like many posts on ThaiVisa do you mean ?

[thaihome]

Not true. It's not that the Thais want Western people doing the jobs but they don't have the Thais that can do them now. 20 years of training no problem but not now. Gradual and slow change with a view of future enterprises managed by local people and no problem. This is not rice farming, I'm talking about. How long does it take to train a helicopter pilot for a modern helicopter? How long does it take to train a petroleum chemist with knowledge of modern refinery techniques? Do the refineries taken over by Thai management in the past year meet international standards? You will see some interesting examples of this in the near future I am sure.

But I am not an expert. Ask some of the people here who really know something about it. I think they will confirm that Thai industry is not ready to stand alone right now.

Further to Samran’s excellent posts on this subject, the oil, gas, and petrochemical business is now on its third generation of experts. At this point, nobody in the business cares what nationality the people they hire are.

Thailand, because it has a large number of plant that have been built in the past 40 years, is one source for experts in all phases of both building and running plants that are used all over the world.

There are plants in Thailand fully managed and run by Thais sitting next to plants that are run by Thais but managed by expats. It is more the choice of the company then having to do with any expertise.

TH

[mark45y]

Not true. It's not that the Thais want Western people doing the jobs but they don't have the Thais that can do them now. 20 years of training no problem but not now. Gradual and slow change with a view of future enterprises managed by local people and no problem. This is not rice farming, I'm talking about. How long does it take to train a helicopter pilot for a modern helicopter? How long does it take to train a petroleum chemist with knowledge of modern refinery techniques? Do the refineries taken over by Thai management in the past year meet international standards? You will see some interesting examples of this in the near future I am sure.

But I am not an expert. Ask some of the people here who really know something about it. I think they will confirm that Thai industry is not ready to stand alone right now.

Further to Samran’s excellent posts on this subject, the oil, gas, and petrochemical business is now on its third generation of experts. At this point, nobody in the business cares what nationality the people they hire are.

Thailand, because it has a large number of plant that have been built in the past 40 years, is one source for experts in all phases of both building and running plants that are used all over the world.

There are plants in Thailand fully managed and run by Thais sitting next to plants that are run by Thais but managed by expats. It is more the choice of the company then having to do with any expertise.

TH

I take it that you work in the oil and gas industry?

[thaihome]

I take it that you work in the oil and gas industry?

Have been working in construction for some 40 years, over 20 in refinery and petrochemical plants and most that in Asia.

TH

[mark45y]

I take it that you work in the oil and gas industry?

Have been working in construction for some 40 years, over 20 in refinery and petrochemical plants and most that in Asia.

TH

When someone in the oil and gas business on a daily basis in Rayong posts I will find it believable.

[thaihome]

I take it that you work in the oil and gas industry?

Have been working in construction for some 40 years, over 20 in refinery and petrochemical plants and most that in Asia.

TH

When someone in the oil and gas business on a daily basis in Rayong posts I will find it believable.

Have been on 4 separate projects in Rayong. Finished the two them this year.

What don't you believe? That there is an ethane cracker along with an LLDPE and LDPE plant running right now without a single expat involved?

That the plants were built by 100% Thai labor working for a Thai company? That the detail engineering was done by Thai company?

TH

[samran]

I suspect that the 7% refers only to short-time tourists entering on tourist visas and does not include anyone entering on any sort of longer visa or waiver. Nor, I suspect, does it include money spent on houses/condos, remittances to Thai dependents, salaries originating outside Thailand and paid to farangs resident here, salaries paid to those with WPs, small business investments etc etc

I wouldnt be all surprised if the total amount for all those far exceeded one third of GDP.

I think you have what is called Messiah complex.

The entire Thai economy has a GDP of $584 Billion per annum or thereabouts

You are suggesting that these things you mention above account for around $200 Billion? Given most of these are based on external remittances ie exports technically, how does that account for the fact that Thai exports are circa $195 billion. So remittances, money given to households are larger than say the car export industry in Thailand which is one of the largest in the region - you know the 'Detroit of Asia'?

To use another comparison, the Thai government has a annual budget of around $75 Billion. Are you saying, that all these things you identify are bigger than the Thai government? You know, the government which builds roads, buildings and other infrastructure, pays millions of civil servants salaries, looks after 4 or 5 dozen state owned enterprises and a couple of dozen essential services.

I mean, there are some delusional posts here on TV. But your one about takes the cake.

Due to the multiplier effect of tourist dollars and ex pat dollars flowing into the country the actual economic impact is somewhere around 30% of GDP. Or $175 billion.

I know what a multiplier effect is. I don't buy it.

It have to be a bloody big multiplier effect, then. Care to explain the transmission mechanism? You are drawing a long bow (an extremely frigging long one) if you think that via invisible multipliers is somehow responsible for supporting 30% of the economy.

[Darrel]

I think you have what is called Messiah complex.

Hardly, given that I dont suggest that the money is coming from me. And who made you a psychiatrist anyway?

To use another comparison, the Thai government has a annual budget of around $75 Billion. Are you saying, that all these things you identify are bigger than the Thai government? You know, the government which builds roads, buildings and other infrastructure, pays millions of civil servants salaries, looks after 4 or 5 dozen state owned enterprises and a couple of dozen essential services.

If you count all of the farang-related income, I wouldnt be surprised. There is a lot of it.

[samran]

I take it that you work in the oil and gas industry?

Have been working in construction for some 40 years, over 20 in refinery and petrochemical plants and most that in Asia.

TH

When someone in the oil and gas business on a daily basis in Rayong posts I will find it believable.

Have been on 4 separate projects in Rayong. Finished the two them this year.

What don't you believe? That there is an ethane cracker along with an LLDPE and LDPE plant running right now without a single expat involved?

That the plants were built by 100% Thai labor working for a Thai company? That the detail engineering was done by Thai company?

TH

Why do you have to go to Rayong? The HQ's are in BKK. So are most of the management personel. When the energy traders come to Thailand they go to BKK. You speak to people in BKK.

I advised the Thai government on petroleum strategy last year. I worked on the privatisation of PTT back in 2002/03. We know how it works, the make up of the sector.

Why do I need to sit in a shabby little red-lit bar down the eastern sea board listening to a Canuk chopper pilot getting his d!ck sucked off under the bar to get an idea of the Thai petroleum sector and how it works?

[samran]

I think you have what is called Messiah complex.

Hardly, given that I dont suggest that the money is coming from me. And who made you a psychiatrist anyway?

To use another comparison, the Thai government has a annual budget of around $75 Billion. Are you saying, that all these things you identify are bigger than the Thai government? You know, the government which builds roads, buildings and other infrastructure, pays millions of civil servants salaries, looks after 4 or 5 dozen state owned enterprises and a couple of dozen essential services.

If you count all of the farang-related income, I wouldnt be surprised. There is a lot of it.

Sounds like you've counted it. Please lay out the numbers then. Maybe I'd me more inclined to beleive that you are not making it up as you are going along.

[mark45y]

I take it that you work in the oil and gas industry?

Have been working in construction for some 40 years, over 20 in refinery and petrochemical plants and most that in Asia.

TH

When someone in the oil and gas business on a daily basis in Rayong posts I will find it believable.

Have been on 4 separate projects in Rayong. Finished the two them this year.

What don't you believe? That there is an ethane cracker along with an LLDPE and LDPE plant running right now without a single expat involved?

That the plants were built by 100% Thai labor working for a Thai company? That the detail engineering was done by Thai company?

TH

You obviously have more information about the issue than I do. I was referring to day to day operations that it was my understanding there were some problems with Thai only management. But, hey I guess you would know. The Maptaphut Industrial area is huge but if there were significant problems I would imagine you would know about it.

[mark45y]

I suspect that the 7% refers only to short-time tourists entering on tourist visas and does not include anyone entering on any sort of longer visa or waiver. Nor, I suspect, does it include money spent on houses/condos, remittances to Thai dependents, salaries originating outside Thailand and paid to farangs resident here, salaries paid to those with WPs, small business investments etc etc

I wouldnt be all surprised if the total amount for all those far exceeded one third of GDP.

I think you have what is called Messiah complex.

The entire Thai economy has a GDP of $584 Billion per annum or thereabouts

You are suggesting that these things you mention above account for around $200 Billion? Given most of these are based on external remittances ie exports technically, how does that account for the fact that Thai exports are circa $195 billion. So remittances, money given to households are larger than say the car export industry in Thailand which is one of the largest in the region - you know the 'Detroit of Asia'?

To use another comparison, the Thai government has a annual budget of around $75 Billion. Are you saying, that all these things you identify are bigger than the Thai government? You know, the government which builds roads, buildings and other infrastructure, pays millions of civil servants salaries, looks after 4 or 5 dozen state owned enterprises and a couple of dozen essential services.

I mean, there are some delusional posts here on TV. But your one about takes the cake.

Due to the multiplier effect of tourist dollars and ex pat dollars flowing into the country the actual economic impact is somewhere around 30% of GDP. Or $175 billion.

I know what a multiplier effect is. I don't buy it.

It have to be a bloody big multiplier effect, then. Care to explain the transmission mechanism? You are drawing a long bow (an extremely frigging long one) if you think that via invisible multipliers is somehow responsible for supporting 30% of the economy.

Don't jump on me. Try asking any economist what the tourist dollar multiplier is. They will tell you that one dollar brought in from outside the economy generates between 3 and 7 dollars in real economic impact. That you don't buy an established rule of economy is of course your prerogative.

[samran]

Don't jump on me. Try asking any economist what the tourist dollar multiplier is. They will tell you that one dollar brought in from outside the economy generates between 3 and 7 dollars in real economic impact. That you don't buy an established rule of economy is of course your prerogative.

Apologies. Didn't mean to jump on you. Just that there is a lot of cr@p being spouted on this thread.

Didn't mean to imply that there wasn't a multipler effect. Of course there is - just not a huge one. Two things though:

- I am an economist, so I asked myself

- Multipliers are highly subjective, used by vested interests to justify whatever cause they want. They are hard enough to quantify at the best of times.

- The basic common sense test needs to be applied - The tourism sector can in no way be bigger than the Thai government as a proportion of GDP.

Too many people here tend to think that Thailand is a two bit economy, it isn't. It is a half trillion dollar economy. Sure, not the biggest in the world, but hardly minor.

[mark45y]

Have been working in construction for some 40 years, over 20 in refinery and petrochemical plants and most that in Asia.

TH

When someone in the oil and gas business on a daily basis in Rayong posts I will find it believable.

Have been on 4 separate projects in Rayong. Finished the two them this year.

What don't you believe? That there is an ethane cracker along with an LLDPE and LDPE plant running right now without a single expat involved?

That the plants were built by 100% Thai labor working for a Thai company? That the detail engineering was done by Thai company?

TH

Why do you have to go to Rayong? The HQ's are in BKK. So are most of the management personel. When the energy traders come to Thailand they go to BKK. You speak to people in BKK.

I advised the Thai government on petroleum strategy last year. I worked on the privatisation of PTT back in 2002/03. We know how it works, the make up of the sector.

Why do I need to sit in a shabby little red-lit bar down the eastern sea board listening to a Canuk chopper pilot getting his d!ck sucked off under the bar to get an idea of the Thai petroleum sector and how it works?

I think you have gone a bit to far. I was under the impression this was a friendly discussion.

[samran]

I think you have gone a bit to far. I was under the impression this was a friendly discussion.

See previous aplogy. You are right.

[mark45y]

Don't jump on me. Try asking any economist what the tourist dollar multiplier is. They will tell you that one dollar brought in from outside the economy generates between 3 and 7 dollars in real economic impact. That you don't buy an established rule of economy is of course your prerogative.

Apologies. Didn't mean to jump on you. Just that there is a lot of cr@p being spouted on this thread.

Didn't mean to imply that there wasn't a multipler effect. Of course there is - just not a huge one. Two things though:

- I am an economist, so I asked myself

- Multipliers are highly subjective, used by vested interests to justify whatever cause they want. They are hard enough to quantify at the best of times.

- The basic common sense test needs to be applied - The tourism sector can in no way be bigger than the Thai government as a proportion of GDP.

Too many people here tend to think that Thailand is a two bit economy, it isn't. It is a half trillion dollar economy. Sure, not the biggest in the world, but hardly minor.

I agree that Thailand is a large economy larger than most think.

Thailand also has a giant gray off the books economy that is driven by dollars coming in from outside the country. It also has a giant gray economy inside the country. Both of those factors add to the significance of a multiplier effect.

The old expat moving up country and starting a noodle stand for his lady is peanuts but multiplied by 10,000 old guys it looks a bit bigger. Then when you add to that the supplies the noodle shop buys and the rent it pays it becomes a bit bigger. When the people who get the money for rent and supplies loan that money out ("SHARE" personal Thai off the books loan system) it becomes a bit bigger. When the people who borrow part of the share invest that money in a small house or farm land and begin to make that profitable it becomes even a bit bigger. It is not hard to figure out how that one dollar has all of a sudden become 7 dollars. The multiplier effect is great because the money was new money coming in from outside of the country and not part of any other chain of domestic events.

[Lancelot]

I do not think that 7% takes into account prostitution and men supporting girlfriends and such. I would guess that it isactually far more than the official figures.

Look at the 7% number (Tourisim as % of Thai GDP) another way. According to the article in the link below, Thai Military spending for 2011 is 1.6% of total GDP, and is projected to rise to 2.1% by 2015. Therefore Thailand could finance its military three times over... just from tourisim revenue.

Article: http://www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com/article/ec0ce99df9/2011/03/01/Thailand_defence_spending_forecast_to_grow_by_14_5/

[WebBangkok]

If I had to leave I would be sad and probably try and come in Illegally somehow I am sort of addicted to Thailand even with all the faults.