As Thailand Floods Spread, Experts Blame Officials, Not Rains

[chaoyang]

Sorry you had to leave. And I relate to what you observed - regarding taking a step forward, two steps back. A recent experience: had a Thai intermediary go to a pu yai ban (village headman) of a fallow area which has incredible potential for a nature park trail. All we needed was for the pu yai ban to say, "ok, your idea sounds interesting, go and raise the money and improve the area" (which has forever been weed choked').

Instead, in typical Thai 'big shot' style, the pu yai ban could only view it in terms of how much money he could soak out of the project. In doing so (putting up shops, charging admission, etc), he also put a bunch of silly restrictions on the project. My Thai intermediary/liaison is young and the pu yai ban is old, so of course, my Thai friend could not counter anything the old man said.

In sum, the project doesn't move forward, even though my team was prepared to raise all the money from donations. And my town doesn't get a potentially lovely (and free!) nature trail winding along the river and circumventing a large limestone hill.

I saw so much potential wasted. What was particularly disheartening was when a good plan was up and running by a foreigner, it was wrestled away from him (by partners, govt, wife's family, wife, etc) then quickly driven right into the ground.

At the end of the day, it's their football and they really can't play unless the rules are stacked in their favor. Best to leave the pitch to them and move on.

[ResX]

These floods are not once every 400 year events, more likely once every 50 year events yet with global warming increasing that frequency towards once every 20 years or less. There was a similar, although slightly less intense flooding some 20 years ago. Alas, a solution was presented that could, by law, not be debated or refuted, and all planning and discussion then came to a halt. The proposed Brobdingnagian pumps that would have never worked were never built and money was wasted upon an aircraft carrier and fighter jets where the skim off the contracts were far higher than building catchment basins, swales, and dikes.

I'm good at calculating flood return frequency for reservoir operations. This one of my job requirements. This is one my calculations show roughly about how to estimate flood frequency and its intensity. 1 in 50-year flood is equivalent to 30days of average rainfall that falls in 5 days or less. MY very rough estimate for Sirikit & Bhumibol, the intensity of 7-day, 1 in 50 years floods are around 3billion cubic meter and 4.5billion cubic meter, respectively. My estimates are done based on the normal hydro power reservoir design. For Sirikit, has useful storage close to 7billion m3. For Bhumibol, it is close to 10billion cubic meter. Normally half of the useful storage volume shall be allocated to deal with the biggest flood in 50 years. I have to admit that two hydroelectric reservoirs may not have the same design.

[wintermute]

That said, I don't see that any of Thailand's neighbors offer a much better ethical/cultural system for innovation or long-term sustainable opportunities. My experience in SE Asia is that other than Singapore all the countries are at best chaotic and at worst downright nasty when it comes to business. Which countries do you think Thailand is "falling behind?"

This is the truth. All the other SEA nations are distinctly worse than Thailand which gives Thailand its own inflated sense of worth. I guess if Vietnam ever gets its act together they could easily be the primary competitor. Vietnam has a larger population and a country that has nearly just as many resources available. Vietnamese are more competitive and are more serious about education. They can hustle like none other and if properly motivated with the right government I see real possibilities for them.

Malaysia would be next in line but their majority islamic malay population and dogmatic religious leaning is a huge hindrance to the progress of that country. It's too bad because if Malaysia wasn't dominated by such a religious and culturally dogmatic majority it could be SEA's leader.

[JSPS]

This situation is hardly new, in 1970 I lived on Soi Ruam Rudi and had to wade out to Wireless Rd to get a taxi. But the main streets were usually dry.

In April of 1986 I had to wade from Soi 8 across Sukhumvit Rd to the Ambassador Hotel to eat during that flooding. The lake at Lumpini Park overflowed and the carp were being caught by children on the sois in the area. There were people windsurfing on Sukhumvit Rd

Flooding has happened every year since. And every year the government says they are going to dow something. Projects have been proposed and funds allocated, but nothing gets done and the funds are used up on pointless (or maybe not so pointless) contracts.

All the reasons given for the flooding this year have been given for the past flooding. But nothing changes.

Edited October 15, 2011 by JSPS

[chaoyang]

This is the truth. All the other SEA nations are distinctly worse than Thailand which gives Thailand its own inflated sense of worth. I guess if Vietnam ever gets its act together they could easily be the primary competitor. Vietnam has a larger population and a country that has nearly just as many resources available. Vietnamese are more competitive and are more serious about education. They can hustle like none other and if properly motivated with the right government I see real possibilities for them.

Malaysia would be next in line but their majority islamic malay population and dogmatic religious leaning is a huge hindrance to the progress of that country. It's too bad because if Malaysia wasn't dominated by such a religious and culturally dogmatic majority it could be SEA's leader.

Certainly Indonesia has the population and resources, but Thailand looks clean compared to the corruption in Indonesia. The real shame is the Philippines, which could have a bit of an edge due to its English-speaking population, but same old story: Corruption, poor planning, violence between godfathers, etc.

[blakegeee]

I am not saying that this flooding has been intentional necessarily, but I certainly wouldn't put it past them.

Doesn't anybody remember that recent Thaksin Yingluck plan to build a multi trillion baht water project diverting water to new huge reservoirs in Isaan during the rainy season (much like they've already failed at "tried" before). Obviously this multi-trillion baht scheme would be very profitable for the powers that be. After all this flooding, I don't imagine they will get much resistance about going ahead with the plan now! It all just seems quite convenient.

Aaaaaaaaah...conspiracy theories! Don't you just love it! Back in the place where I originally came from, a taxi- driver told me, that the WTC is still there...we just can't see it, cause the US has developed a technique like in the 'Matrix"! ...oh yeah...and he was stoned out of his eyeballs!

Just because your paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you. So what are you saying, that conspiracies don't exist? This current situation doesn't exactly require a matrix to cause it. Just keep your head in the sand and believe everything "they" tell you on the tv. It'll be easier on your closed mind that way.

Edited October 15, 2011 by blakegeee

[DocN]

I am not saying that this flooding has been intentional necessarily, but I certainly wouldn't put it past them.

Doesn't anybody remember that recent Thaksin Yingluck plan to build a multi trillion baht water project diverting water to new huge reservoirs in Isaan during the rainy season (much like they've already failed at "tried" before). Obviously this multi-trillion baht scheme would be very profitable for the powers that be. After all this flooding, I don't imagine they will get much resistance about going ahead with the plan now! It all just seems quite convenient.

Aaaaaaaaah...conspiracy theories! Don't you just love it! Back in the place where I originally came from, a taxi- driver told me, that the WTC is still there...we just can't see it, cause the US has developed a technique like in the 'Matrix"! ...oh yeah...and he was stoned out of his eyeballs!

Just because your paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you. So what are you saying, that conspiracies don't exist? This current situation doesn't exactly require a matrix to cause it. Just keep your head in the sand and believe everything "they" tell you on the tv. It'll be easier on your closed mind that way.

Yeah right...so...last years flood- under AVs reign- was that also "inspired" by Thaksin? I may need to get my head out of the sand. But if I tell you where you have to get your head out of, maybe I might be banned!

[blakegeee]

I am not saying that this flooding has been intentional necessarily, but I certainly wouldn't put it past them.

Doesn't anybody remember that recent Thaksin Yingluck plan to build a multi trillion baht water project diverting water to new huge reservoirs in Isaan during the rainy season (much like they've already failed at "tried" before). Obviously this multi-trillion baht scheme would be very profitable for the powers that be. After all this flooding, I don't imagine they will get much resistance about going ahead with the plan now! It all just seems quite convenient.

Aaaaaaaaah...conspiracy theories! Don't you just love it! Back in the place where I originally came from, a taxi- driver told me, that the WTC is still there...we just can't see it, cause the US has developed a technique like in the 'Matrix"! ...oh yeah...and he was stoned out of his eyeballs!

Just because your paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you. So what are you saying, that conspiracies don't exist? This current situation doesn't exactly require a matrix to cause it. Just keep your head in the sand and believe everything "they" tell you on the tv. It'll be easier on your closed mind that way.

Yeah right...so...last years flood- under AVs reign- was that also "inspired" by Thaksin? I may need to get my head out of the sand. But if I tell you where you have to get your head out of, maybe I might be banned!

If you had read my post, you would see in the first line that I didn't claim this flood or any other was "inspired by Thaksin" or anybody else. My point is, with the money on the table, it should be carefully considered and I am surprised that more people aren't making this connection. These people are not running the country from the love in their heart. Its pure greed, need for power, and egomania!

Now please continue with your uncanny wit!

[ResX]

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I just wanted to say ResX, that I for one (and I'm sure there are others) appreciate your posts very much. You seem to know your subject matter very well and nowhere in your posts did I see you say that dams are the ONLY solution to flood control. What's sad is, a person of your obvious skill/ knowledge set would never be able to rise to a level where you could affect outcomes here in Thailand unless you came from the right family or were willing to take bribes and kick a significant portion of those up the chain of command. If you don't mind my asking, where did you attend college?

Thank you for your appreciation. I'm not from Thailand. I' m in hydroelectric reservoir operations business more than 15 years. In it comes to flood especially the one that related for reservoir operations I will not hesitate to contribute my knowledge for to save people from similar flood. Saving people from flood is not about money.

[bigbamboo]

For a country trying to imitate Atlantis its not doing too bad on the economic front 47=pound..and with Som Chai selling buckets of sand and fake lifejackets..who knows what will happen this time Next Year when the BIG ONE has been forcast...hum...hum...

Hmmn.... now tell me how do you forecast a flood a year in advance? I've heard nothing to that effect from my Thai fortune teller.

[DocN]

If you had read my post, you would see in the first line that I didn't claim this flood or any other was "inspired by Thaksin" or anybody else. My point is, with the money on the table, it should be carefully considered and I am surprised that more people aren't making this connection. These people are not running the country from the love in their heart. Its pure greed, need for power, and egomania!

Now please continue with your uncanny wit!

They aren't making the connection, because there is no connection! Floods happen for decades- no one has any plan - people die- end of story! There is no "plan" or "scheme". There are just greedy folks who bribe agencies into letting them chop down forrests for industrial estates or other stuff of that kind. There are other people who only can find relevance in NOT emptying reservoirs before the rainy season comes. And others again are paying merrit to river- gods instead of getting off their ass and do <deleted> something that really helps! I bet you sir: next year, smae time, same place, same sh**! And if not next year ("Look! We persuaded the gods of the river to spare us!"), than the year after...and after that...and after that!

[ResX]

When it comes to discussion of floods and the role of dams, there is quite a bit of unreal expectation mixed with a generous dose of hypocrisy.

The dams that have been built are multi-purpose which includes flood MITIGATION. All that they can hope to do in the current situation is reduce peak flows which cause the greatest destruction and loss of life. Even if every reservoir in the country was near empty, how long do you think it would take to fill them with flows around 4000 cu m/sec?

1.15m/day for Bhumibol and 1.33m/day for Sirikit. The peak flood flow such as 4000m3/s rarely can sustain more than 48 hours. On top of that care shall be taken to consider second degree peak. Its daily average could be as low as low as 1000m3/s but it may sustain for the next 10days. Then, I will suggest Bhumibol shall have flood margin 1.7 billion m3 just before the coming of flood season. But, wait,,,,It is not hard to find the magnitude of the flood you want to deal with. The problem is it is insufficient. You have to know it average recurrence interval or probability of occurrence. If the flood you are trying to capture has the average recurrence interval (ARI) of 7 years then your reservoir will be beaten by flood 7 times over the next 49 years! Therefore, you first have to define what average recurrence interval of the flood you want to deal with. The correct value has its merit. For a multi-purpose reservoir one should look for something between 50 -200years ARI.

Just ask you Science & Technology Minister, what standard ARI for the flood that Bhumibol & Sirikit reservoirs are expected to deal with?

[fantuzi]

The obvious simple thing that could have been done and could be every year is to release water from behind dams at an earlier point rather than wait until everything is full and then release huge deluges all at the same time

Actually we have done this for our major hydroelectric reservoirs about 5 years ago. In 2009 we have successfully captured the biggest flood in 50 years. Not even a drop of water lost through spillage. We were making additional money worth USD 7million since we managed to store flood water more than 500million cubic meter (Half of the volume of water that troubled you currently). Obviously ordinary citizen may not realize our ingenuity since they took for granted that the flood should not be there in the first place. Doing the job like this you have to bear with the fact that if you perform your job perfectly well nobody realize that you exist. Next time when you fail people will start to know more about you so that they can channel their anger.

You almost get it right in term of overall concept. In reality, it is much more difficult. Let me ask you one question. How low that you think the dams water levels shall be kept before the next monsoon? Too low you ends up having no water for your purposes. Too high will increase the risk of flooding. It is very tricky business. Nevertheless as you said, it can be done. We have done it.

Who is "we"?

Must be 2 of "em.......one to hold the ladder and the other to....?

There are already two of YOU to hold the ladder - Rinrada and OzMick,are you looking for help?

[djlest]

What caused the floods and how can it be fixed?

its a pointless debate...

the Thais will argue for a few months, throw all their amazing Thailand ideas on the Table.

The money will come into the scenareo from outside the country from outside donations..

Then schemes and plans will cost 3 times more than actuality due to corruption which is by default (no matter what government rules)

Then after a few months the sun will shine and a new distraction will take place...

Oh forget about the flood, that's old news (we live in the moment and for tomorrow)

Forget about the past, how are we gonna get paid today?

[apalink_thailand]

persons thinking they will make money selling grates for scrap would probably use more fuel transporting them then they would get for scrap iron

Human power. They use carts that they push down the street.