Dont take my word for it, but the Thai Economy is at the top of the economic cycle is currenly being support by debt.

Thailand is pricing itself out of the market by holding such as stong currency, although holding a strong baht is good for borrowing money.

Dont take my work for this, but I predict thay that over the next 12 months, the Thai Baht will slowly be allowed to depreciate, partially on the back of 2012. Inflation is rampant in Thailand at the moment, so if Thailand devalues the currency it can stimulate growth through exports and tourism, bringing in revenues to pay by the debts for the floods and infrastructure.

My estimates range from 30 -50 per cent devaluation over the next 12 months, partially because of market reluctance to by governement debt, especially when Euro currencies start defaulting on their loans, this will push up bond yeilds elsewhere to plug the gap. Where is elsewhere you have guessed it in one. South East Asian markets.

A good time to be out of the Thai Bath at least until August 2012 at the earliest.

A good time to be out of the Thai Bath is when you can't find the plug...

A good time to be out of the Thai Bath is when you can't find the plug...

Well it is 12:30 in the morning in the UK. Stella Artois the dirty little drink has had her way with me again.

Is it "Make a wish day" in farangland?

Is it "Make a wish day" in farangland?

Perhaps, but wishes can come true you know.

Is it "Make a wish day" in farangland?

Perhaps, but wishes can come true you know.

True. I hope your wish includes the US$ going to about 40 to the baht.

Is it "Make a wish day" in farangland?

It's a profoundly silly observation also not least because the Thai economy is not encumbered by significant debt.

@autan:

How can you say Thailand currently has such strong currency, and then in the next breath say Thailand currently has a rampant inflation ?

Sounds more like wishful thinking to get better buying power,

i take it you are English since you hope to get 85 baht for a pound.

But i just watched England voting against stricter economic policy so odds are pound is going down further, quite possibly with a devaluation, so now is a good time to bring over whatever pound you got

I believed we would get 85 baht to the pound as well ,then i woke up.

And at last Cameron has grown some Balls and told Europe where to go ,with any luck we will get out altogether ,then the pound will strengthen.

It isn't just the spelling that the Stella's are affecting.

Perhaps there should be a 'time capsule' forum where threads with predictions such as this can be reopened on the appropriate date with a good laugh to be had by all then.

Moving to business and economy

It isn't just the spelling that the Stella's are affecting.

Perhaps there should be a 'time capsule' forum where threads with predictions such as this can be reopened on the appropriate date with a good laugh to be had by all then.

some months ago i counted 14 threads which, over several years, all dealt with the "fact" that the Thai economy is about to fall into the abyss dragging the Thai Baht along

I believed we would get 85 baht to the pound as well ,then i woke up.

And at last Cameron has grown some Balls and told Europe where to go ,with any luck we will get out altogether ,then the pound will strengthen.

85bts to the £ sounds very good, I will wait for that happen and be happy too much if it does.

Your comments about the Euro I agree with. I used to be euro supporter but no more, they take our money and tell us what to do and what do we get Jack s--t. The majority of the UK want out so lets get out. Dont give the tosh about trade, it works both ways, they wont suddenly stop trading with us. They made the cock up without the Uk so throw them mop and bucket, now it will be interesting to see if the £ reacts better than euro to the baht.

We can only dream of the old days when exchange rates were on foreign $s favour agaqinst the thai baht. Its been a long time and only hope things will come back again

Moving to business and economy

Should have moved it to the wet dream/fantasy land forum....

I can promise you that the UK government will do a few more rounds of quantitative easing in 2012 diluting the pound further. The same goes for the US and US dollar - same for the Euro. The trouble is that these currencies are getting weaker. I don't know how much Thailand exports to these parts of the world, but if it's a significant proportion, then they may have to weaken the baht to ensure no loss in export sales because they're becoming too expensive. As for tourism, it could be another reason to weaken the baht. I know people go on about tourism only being 7% of the economy, but after the floods and drop in growth (and predicted growth), tourism might become that much more important again. Also consider foreign investment - another reason to weaken the baht.

"My estimates range from 30 -50 per cent devaluation over the next 12 months, partially because of market reluctance to by governement debt, "

i doubt it, since Thai has a massive foreign reserve. 5-10% is acceptable to boost export and tourist receipt.

Moving to business and economy

You should move it to the comedy forum

OK i won't take your word (and work) for it.

"My estimates range from 30 -50 per cent devaluation over the next 12 months, partially because of market reluctance to by governement debt, "

Somebody been smokin something, I think

All cometh to he who waiteth.

I can promise you that the UK government will do a few more rounds of quantitative easing in 2012 diluting the pound further. The same goes for the US and US dollar - same for the Euro. The trouble is that these currencies are getting weaker. I don't know how much Thailand exports to these parts of the world, but if it's a significant proportion, then they may have to weaken the baht to ensure no loss in export sales because they're becoming too expensive. As for tourism, it could be another reason to weaken the baht. I know people go on about tourism only being 7% of the economy, but after the floods and drop in growth (and predicted growth), tourism might become that much more important again. Also consider foreign investment - another reason to weaken the baht.

I think the question is "What happens to the Euro?" If the Euro collapses, what will happen in Europe? How will the civilized people react? Banks are already scrambling not only to provide local currency, but handling the exchange rates and bond adjustments. Talk about a nightmare. How long did it take to implement the Euro and now it might have to be unwound is a matter of weeks?

Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal are continuing to put extreme pressure on the Euro. If there was only 25 - 100 Trillion of any currency out there to bail the Euro out. But the Euro is s fiat currency and there is a good chance it will collapse. The predictions are we'll know soon what happens. The let the fallout begin.

Am sure it will hit 75 but cannot see 85 at the moment......

Wishful thinking to go that high...

A Post and the reply to it deleted.

7) Not to post slurs or degrading comments directed towards any group on the basis of race, nationality, religion, gender or sexual orientation.

If the pound went to 85 baht then the dollar would have to go to 53 baht : 48/85 = 30/x

If the dollar was any thing thing less than 53 baht, and the pound = $1.56. Then a Daisy Chain can be set up to generate pounds.

For example if the dollar only went to 40 baht. then with one pound ( 85 baht ) / 40 baht = 2.12 So with 85 baht worth $2.12 and the pound = $1.56.

$2.12/ $1.56/pound = 1.35 pounds. Now start the cycle over again with 85 baht/pound x 1.35 pounds = 115 baht

Or the dollar could devalue also against the pound : 1 pound / $2.12 and this would cancel the Daisy Chain

But would still be an improvement for the dollar/ 40 baht

Moving to business and economy

Should have moved it to the wet dream/fantasy land forum....

Or perhaps, in view of the floods, the wet-land fantasy-dream forum ?

Ya gotta wonder what planet some of these financial wiz kids come from. Can't figure why the OP is wasting time on this site when he could be making a fortune day trading.

Ya gotta wonder what planet some of these financial wiz kids come from. Can't figure why the OP is wasting time on this site when he could be making a fortune day trading.

day trading is rather difficult during weekends

Ya gotta wonder what planet some of these financial wiz kids come from. Can't figure why the OP is wasting time on this site when he could be making a fortune day trading.

day trading is rather difficult during weekends

I tried day trading at night once but fell asleep!