Warning On Rice Policy A Wake-Up Call For Thai Govt

[Nickymaster]

CMK those are bad numbers and if this trend continues for the rest of the year losses will be huge.

They only sold 796,304 tons.in the first quarter?!

I didn't say they were good but they are accurate. Moodys are not chumps. But numbers are numbers. I like numbers. I don't like the useless exaggerations like "mountains of rotting rice." On a positive note Russia and China are buying and the baht is going down which will help sales.

I didn't say they were good but they are accurate.

LOL....I didn't say that you said they were good. Did I?

Edited June 7, 2013 by Nickymaster

[Thai at Heart]

CMK those are bad numbers and if this trend continues for the rest of the year losses will be huge.

They only sold 796,304 tons.in the first quarter?!

I didn't say they were good but they are accurate. Moodys are not chumps. But numbers are numbers. I like numbers. I don't like the useless exaggerations like "mountains of rotting rice." On a positive note Russia and China are buying and the baht is going down which will help sales.

I didn't say they were good but they are accurate.

LOL....I didn't say that you said they were good. Did I?

So is the conclusion that the numbers so far this year are bad?

[chiangmaikelly]

CMK those are bad numbers and if this trend continues for the rest of the year losses will be huge.

They only sold 796,304 tons.in the first quarter?!

I didn't say they were good but they are accurate. Moodys are not chumps. But numbers are numbers. I like numbers. I don't like the useless exaggerations like "mountains of rotting rice." On a positive note Russia and China are buying and the baht is going down which will help sales.

I didn't say they were good but they are accurate.

LOL....I didn't say that you said they were good. Did I?

So is the conclusion that the numbers so far this year are bad?

Yes bad. Not mountains of rotting rice but less than last year by a long shot. The rice will be sold of course but at a lower price later on this year or next. Are they going to lose money? Sure. How much? Look at the futures market; it's easy to figure.

[catmac]

There are so many other costs involved G J each one in its self may me minor but when they are all added up they will be a fair bit per ton.

Then multiply that by 18 million.

For instance:

Power

Fuel

cartage

security

labor to move the stuff

insecticides, pesticides, fungicides , assuming they are used.

So how much rice is in storage and how much is it costing?

That is the key to it, CMK. Only the officials and Government departments in charge know the answer, so why don't you tell us why they refuse to disclose the true figures. Perhaps it's because they are so horrendous that nobody dares to tell the truth?

[chiangmaikelly]

That is the key to it, CMK. Only the officials and Government departments in charge know the answer, so why don't you tell us why they refuse to disclose the true figures. Perhaps it's because they are so horrendous that nobody dares to tell the truth?

Anyone in the rice business knows. Anyone who invests in futures knows. Or you can go to http://oryza.com/content/thailand-q1-2013-rice-exports-down-53-q1-2012-earnings-down-6

[Thai at Heart]

Actually it's not an clear calculation at all, because there are many grades and types all priced differently for export and government pricing, so presumably there is a manifest of what is in the warehouse, and what is not. It would appear that if the average is 500+ USD per tonne, that this is predominantly the top grade hom mali that is being sold, but there are many other cheaper grades and types. Someone somewhere should have a detailed stock list of exactly what is on hand, rather than this global number of 20mn tonnes. No mention of which crop year and type was sold in the last quarter for example.

20 mn tonnes of what, and which crop year is still in the warehouse.

[Thai at Heart]

That is the key to it, CMK. Only the officials and Government departments in charge know the answer, so why don't you tell us why they refuse to disclose the true figures. Perhaps it's because they are so horrendous that nobody dares to tell the truth?

Anyone in the rice business knows. Anyone who invests in futures knows. Or you can go to http://oryza.com/content/thailand-q1-2013-rice-exports-down-53-q1-2012-earnings-down-6

Thanks for this. I have looked around this site for ages to get a detailed analysis of this. So, the cheap generic stuff isn't selling.

[chiangmaikelly]

Average export prices of white rice in Q1 2013 stood at around $573 per ton, up around 1.5% from around $565 per ton in Q1 2012. Average prices of Pathumthani rice increased to around $989 per ton in Q1 2013, up around 8% from around $916 per ton in the same period last year, while average Hommali rice export prices in Q1 2013 stood at around $1,042 per ton, up around 10% from around $944 per ton recorded in the first quarter of 2012.

http://oryza.com/content/thailand-q1-2013-rice-exports-down-53-q1-2012-earnings-down-6

Edited June 7, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[bigbamboo]

The trouble is who can you believe? Certainly not the 'Lying King', Kittirat.

Maybe the architect of the whole scheme should make an announcement on Skype. If anyone knows the true figures it must the man in Dubai.

[thaicbr]

The trouble is who can you believe? Certainly not the 'Lying King', Kittirat.

Maybe the architect of the whole scheme should make an announcement on Skype. If anyone knows the true figures it must the man in Dubai.

Page 3 Bkk post. More info

Sent from my i-mobile i-STYLE Q6

[catmac]

That is the key to it, CMK. Only the officials and Government departments in charge know the answer, so why don't you tell us why they refuse to disclose the true figures. Perhaps it's because they are so horrendous that nobody dares to tell the truth?

Anyone in the rice business knows. Anyone who invests in futures knows. Or you can go to http://oryza.com/content/thailand-q1-2013-rice-exports-down-53-q1-2012-earnings-down-6

Thanks for this. I have looked around this site for ages to get a detailed analysis of this. So, the cheap generic stuff isn't selling.

You see CMK, you are skirting round the question again. Sure, your link gives us the true figures for how much was actualy exported and at what price (and those figues are depressing enough - 53% drop in total exports, and a massive 75% drop in the export of the kind of rice now being stockpiled). The question that YOU asked, however, was just how much is STILL IN STORE and how much is it costing. Like the Government, you twist and turn and bandy other figures around, but refuse to address the real problem.

[edwinchester]

Depressing that this scheme was supposed to boost farmers income yet only last week BoT reported their income had fallen 7.7% year on year.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Nickymaster]

So the numbers are bad. Good that we all agree (incl. CMK).

-Are they bad because of mismanagement by PT?

-Are they very bad because of mismanagement by PT?

Should anybody in PT government take responsibility for this fiasco?

(I am not even talking about all the corruption this scheme is plagued with).

[Nickymaster]

Depressing that this scheme was supposed to boost farmers income yet only last week BoT reported their income had fallen 7.7% year on year.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Correct that is what Thaksin wanted the farmers to believe.

[paddyjenkins]

assuming the government is paying 40% higher than market price then the minimum annual loss will be about 800000*12*1000*0.4 as i have used the government target of 800,000 tons per month for exports and an average market price of USD 1000 per ton for thai jasmine rice. So that adds up to about USD 3.84 billion per year being the loss incurred by the government due to the rice pledging scheme.

but if the actual production has been higher, with the farmers incentive to have produced as much as they can or/and or/and if the rice in storage is rotting then the losses may be substantially higher.

you can all argue with yourselves and split hairs, but this looks like a fair ballpark minimum figure to me. the actual loss to thailand though is debateable, as this is more about redistribution of wealth than actual loss. the government needs to make up for the costs through tax revenue or/and debt issuance. the gdp of thailand is about usd 350 billion, so the rice pledging scheme is quite modest in % terms.

[chiangmaikelly]

There are so many other costs involved G J each one in its self may me minor but when they are all added up they will be a fair bit per ton.

Then multiply that by 18 million.

For instance:

Power

Fuel

cartage

security

labor to move the stuff

insecticides, pesticides, fungicides , assuming they are used.

So how much rice is in storage and how much is it costing?

That is the key to it, CMK. Only the officials and Government departments in charge know the answer, so why don't you tell us why they refuse to disclose the true figures. Perhaps it's because they are so horrendous that nobody dares to tell the truth?

Why would the government be the only ones who know? Take an average year rice production and subtract the amount sold so far and multiply what is left by the storage charges. This is not rocket science. I don't trade rice but any rice trader will know what the storage cost is and the amount in storage in Thailand. You make it sound like a conspiracy and it's not. PaddyJenkins stated it well when he said it was income redistribution. If the farmers get the money it's a Robin Hood idea and if the rich brokers get it, it is not a robin Hood idea. In any event it is a wake up call. Moodys is telling Thailand to get it's stuff together.

Edited June 7, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Nickymaster]

There are so many other costs involved G J each one in its self may me minor but when they are all added up they will be a fair bit per ton.

Then multiply that by 18 million.

For instance:

Power

Fuel

cartage

security

labor to move the stuff

insecticides, pesticides, fungicides , assuming they are used.

So how much rice is in storage and how much is it costing?

That is the key to it, CMK. Only the officials and Government departments in charge know the answer, so why don't you tell us why they refuse to disclose the true figures. Perhaps it's because they are so horrendous that nobody dares to tell the truth?

Why would the government be the only ones who know? Take an average year rice production and subtract the amount sold so far and multiply what is left by the storage charges. This is not rocket science. I don't trade rice but any rice trader will know what the storage cost is and the amount in storage in Thailand. You make it sound like a conspiracy and it's not. PaddyJenkins stated it well when he said it was income redistribution. If the farmers get the money it's a Robin Hood idea and if the rich brokers get it, it is not a robin Hood idea. In any event it is a wake up call. Moodys is telling Thailand to get it's stuff together.

I think the government are they only party that doesn't seem to know the situation. Early this week Yingluck and Nathawut where ordering the applicable departments to collect the correct figures and present them to the public (and Moody). After 2 years!!!!!

Come on CMK, it is very clear that the only ones who are making a conspiracy out of this are PT themselves.

[OzMick]

Oh please! the myth of Robin Hood was that he stole from the rich to give to the poor. The rice scam is stealing from the people of Thailand, the overwhelming majority of whom are far from wealthy, and most of that stolen is ending up in the pockets of those far from poor.

BTW for a little historical accuracy, RH's actions were a protest against "evil" Prince John's taxes, levied to pay for "good" King Richard's (the Lionheart) crusades and his ransom when he was captured by an ally he had offended. Richard is regarded as one of the worst Kings that England ever suffered.

[chiangmaikelly]

So how much rice is in storage and how much is it costing?

That is the key to it, CMK. Only the officials and Government departments in charge know the answer, so why don't you tell us why they refuse to disclose the true figures. Perhaps it's because they are so horrendous that nobody dares to tell the truth?

Why would the government be the only ones who know? Take an average year rice production and subtract the amount sold so far and multiply what is left by the storage charges. This is not rocket science. I don't trade rice but any rice trader will know what the storage cost is and the amount in storage in Thailand. You make it sound like a conspiracy and it's not. PaddyJenkins stated it well when he said it was income redistribution. If the farmers get the money it's a Robin Hood idea and if the rich brokers get it, it is not a robin Hood idea. In any event it is a wake up call. Moodys is telling Thailand to get it's stuff together.

I think the government are they only party that doesn't seem to know the situation. Early this week Yingluck and Nathawut where ordering the applicable departments to collect the correct figures and present them to the public (and Moody). After 2 years!!!!!

Come on CMK, it is very clear that the only ones who are making a conspiracy out of this are PT themselves.

The price of rice is going down. It is not going down fast. In 3 weeks 8 dollars a ton down for broken white and sticky rice up 12 dollars a ton . No conspiracy.

[chiangmaikelly]

Oh please! the myth of Robin Hood was that he stole from the rich to give to the poor. The rice scam is stealing from the people of Thailand, the overwhelming majority of whom are far from wealthy, and most of that stolen is ending up in the pockets of those far from poor.

BTW for a little historical accuracy, RH's actions were a protest against "evil" Prince John's taxes, levied to pay for "good" King Richard's (the Lionheart) crusades and his ransom when he was captured by an ally he had offended. Richard is regarded as one of the worst Kings that England ever suffered.

Yingluck is taking money from industrial/commercial taxpayers and giving it to rice farmers.

[chiang mai]

Oh please! the myth of Robin Hood was that he stole from the rich to give to the poor. The rice scam is stealing from the people of Thailand, the overwhelming majority of whom are far from wealthy, and most of that stolen is ending up in the pockets of those far from poor.

BTW for a little historical accuracy, RH's actions were a protest against "evil" Prince John's taxes, levied to pay for "good" King Richard's (the Lionheart) crusades and his ransom when he was captured by an ally he had offended. Richard is regarded as one of the worst Kings that England ever suffered.

Yingluck is taking money from industrial/commercial taxpayers and giving it to rice farmers.

Agreed.

[EyesWideOpen]

No Robin Hood plan involved at all. This is a simple wealth redistribution

plan. So at this point an investigative newspaper needs to step in and figure out who the money went to. Oh sorry I forgot, due to bizarre libel laws in Thailand, nothing can really be investigated... Wait I wonder why that is...

If the government really wanted to help the farmers, they should have simply sent each farmer a check. Would have been a lot cheaper, and it would have avoided destroying the rice export business.

Edited June 7, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[OzMick]

Oh please! the myth of Robin Hood was that he stole from the rich to give to the poor. The rice scam is stealing from the people of Thailand, the overwhelming majority of whom are far from wealthy, and most of that stolen is ending up in the pockets of those far from poor.

BTW for a little historical accuracy, RH's actions were a protest against "evil" Prince John's taxes, levied to pay for "good" King Richard's (the Lionheart) crusades and his ransom when he was captured by an ally he had offended. Richard is regarded as one of the worst Kings that England ever suffered.

Yingluck is taking money from industrial/commercial taxpayers and giving it to rice farmers.

Agreed.

BS! Tax is paid by ALL the people of Thailand and belongs to ALL the people of Thailand. Wasting taxpayers money is a crime.

[chiangmaikelly]

Oh please! the myth of Robin Hood was that he stole from the rich to give to the poor. The rice scam is stealing from the people of Thailand, the overwhelming majority of whom are far from wealthy, and most of that stolen is ending up in the pockets of those far from poor.

BTW for a little historical accuracy, RH's actions were a protest against "evil" Prince John's taxes, levied to pay for "good" King Richard's (the Lionheart) crusades and his ransom when he was captured by an ally he had offended. Richard is regarded as one of the worst Kings that England ever suffered.

Yingluck is taking money from industrial/commercial taxpayers and giving it to rice farmers.

Agreed.

BS! Tax is paid by ALL the people of Thailand and belongs to ALL the people of Thailand. Wasting taxpayers money is a crime.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra took power in 2011 on a promise to pay farmers well above what was then the market rate for their rice, and the intervention has gone on even though it has priced Thai rice out of the international market.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

Maybe you know more than I but I don't think the farmers pay much income tax in Thailand. I think the majority of tax is paid by industry and commerce and not farming.

[OzMick]

Any PM that admits that she/he has no idea of the hugely expensive costs of a policy in force for 2 years should resign on the spot. If ~10% of government expenditure is going to a policy why is there not monthly (if not weekly) accounting of income, expenditure and efficacy?

[chiang mai]

Oh please! the myth of Robin Hood was that he stole from the rich to give to the poor. The rice scam is stealing from the people of Thailand, the overwhelming majority of whom are far from wealthy, and most of that stolen is ending up in the pockets of those far from poor.

BTW for a little historical accuracy, RH's actions were a protest against "evil" Prince John's taxes, levied to pay for "good" King Richard's (the Lionheart) crusades and his ransom when he was captured by an ally he had offended. Richard is regarded as one of the worst Kings that England ever suffered.

Yingluck is taking money from industrial/commercial taxpayers and giving it to rice farmers.

Agreed.

BS! Tax is paid by ALL the people of Thailand and belongs to ALL the people of Thailand. Wasting taxpayers money is a crime.

Whatever happened with people just saying, I disagree!

"Regardless, tax is paid by less than 2% of the population.In Thailand, only a very small number of people - about two million people - actually pay personal income tax. Most of these people are office employees. The rest usually avoid paying tax by either misinforming the amount of their income or doing business in the massive informal sector, which is beyond the scrutiny of tax collection officers".

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/607082-why-are-we-cutting-tax-for-the-most-wealthy-people-thai-editorial/

[OzMick]

BS! Tax is paid by ALL the people of Thailand and belongs to ALL the people of Thailand. Wasting taxpayers money is a crime.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra took power in 2011 on a promise to pay farmers well above what was then the market rate for their rice, and the intervention has gone on even though it has priced Thai rice out of the international market.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/28385

Maybe you know more than I but I don't think the farmers pay much income tax in Thailand. I think the majority of tax is paid by industry and commerce and not farming.

Strawman argument. EVERY Thai pays sales tax, and the amount any group pays is irrelevant. The tax collected belongs to ALL Thais.

[longway]

Oh please! the myth of Robin Hood was that he stole from the rich to give to the poor. The rice scam is stealing from the people of Thailand, the overwhelming majority of whom are far from wealthy, and most of that stolen is ending up in the pockets of those far from poor.

BTW for a little historical accuracy, RH's actions were a protest against "evil" Prince John's taxes, levied to pay for "good" King Richard's (the Lionheart) crusades and his ransom when he was captured by an ally he had offended. Richard is regarded as one of the worst Kings that England ever suffered.

Yingluck is taking money from industrial/commercial taxpayers and giving it to rice farmers.

Are all thai rice farmers poor? It goes well beyong wealth re-distribution. Why buy the rice, why not just send money directly to rice farmers.

The government has come close to a total monopoly on trading thai grown rice. It is responsible to for all sales, transport, insurance and storage. If its a RH wealth distribution scheme why only limit it largely to rice farmers, why not simpy send cheques to all poor people in thailand every year?

Or if the thai rice industry requires government support to survuce then its not a wealth re-distribution scheme its a subsidy to the wholerice industry, rich and poor.

A complete mischaracterisation on your part.

[chiangmaikelly]

Any PM that admits that she/he has no idea of the hugely expensive costs of a policy in force for 2 years should resign on the spot. If ~10% of government expenditure is going to a policy why is there not monthly (if not weekly) accounting of income, expenditure and efficacy?

BANGKOK, Dec 19 – Thailand’s financial loss from its two-year rice pledging scheme should reach Bt247 billion (US$8.2 billion), or 1 to 1.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), a World Bank economist said today.

http://www.mcot.net/site/content?id=50d19f5b150ba0bb3f000068#.UbF1t8X7srE

[OzMick]

BS! Tax is paid by ALL the people of Thailand and belongs to ALL the people of Thailand. Wasting taxpayers money is a crime.

Whatever happened with people just saying, I disagree!

"Regardless, tax is paid by less than 2% of the population.In Thailand, only a very small number of people - about two million people - actually pay personal income tax. Most of these people are office employees. The rest usually avoid paying tax by either misinforming the amount of their income or doing business in the massive informal sector, which is beyond the scrutiny of tax collection officers".

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/607082-why-are-we-cutting-tax-for-the-most-wealthy-people-thai-editorial/

When some begin posts with "such arrogance"?

Your statement is factually wrong. You are referring to income tax - sales tax is paid by all.