Thai govt caught in maze of its own making

[webfact]

NATION ANALYSIS
Govt caught in maze of its own making
Jintana Panyaarvudh,
Attayuth Bootsripoom
The Nation


General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, Matubhum MP and the man behind the 2006 coup, clarifies why he proposed a reconciliation bill, which he agreed to withdraw yesterday during the House meeting.

The amnesty bill and some of the likely scenarios

BANGKOK: -- Pressure from across the country is constantly growing against the government since it pushed the controversial bill to grant blanket amnesty to all offenders, including those convicted of or facing corruption charges since 2004.

The fate of the bill will be clear today when the Senate holds deliberations. Here is a look at the some of the possible scenarios and their implications for the country in the next few days:

In the first likely scenario, if the Senate votes to reject the bill on the first reading, it may not really calm the situation, as the protesters do not believe the bill will be surely dropped. The protesters are now escalating the rally with the aim of ousting the Yingluck Shinawatra government. However, a rejection of the bill would mean the red shirts detained in prison will lose the opportunity to be freed.

This solution is seen as just a break or a time-buying strategy of the government. The huge rallies could restart 180 days after the Senate returns the bill to the House. The bill could be reaffirmed by the House, where Pheu Thai has a majority.

A better solution would be for the Senate to vote for the bill on its first reading and set up a committee to amend the bill by following the original version proposed by Pheu Thai MP Worachai Hema. That bill grants amnesty to people of all political affiliations between September 19, 2006 and May 10, 2011 with the exception of protest leaders and those in authority. The Senate could speed up the process by passing the bill in three readings today.

In order to speed up the bill's passage, when the amended bill is returned, the House should approve the change. In that case, there would be no need to set up a joint committee to delay the passage.

On the plus side, if the bill is passed, the Pheu Thai Party and the government would regain the support of red-shirt protesters and relatives of the victims of the 2010 political violence as the detained reds can be freed from prison.

However, this solution will be totally useless for fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who wants to return to Thailand. It would shut the door on Thaksin to be granted amnesty for his two-year-jail sentence and to recover the Bt46 billion seized from him. It is unlikely the ruling Pheu Thai Party will propose such a bill later to whitewash the cases against one man.

Another option will be for the Senate to vote to deem the bill a financial law. The bill would be returned to the House. The House Speaker then calls a meeting with 35 chairmen of House committees to treat the bill as a financial law. When the House returns the bill to the prime minister, it will be dropped if the PM fails to endorse it.

This solution will surely kill the bill without waiting for the 180-day period. However, it entails risks for Yingluck as protesters or her political opponents could pin responsibility on the prime minister.

One option by which the government can show its sincerity would be to withdraw the original bill proposed by Worachai. As the draft owner, Worachai can propose to the House to withdraw his bill. This will lead to the bill being dropped immediately if the House votes for the proposal. This could calm down the protesters, as some of them came out on the streets only to oppose the bill.

The last scenario, but the least likely, will be the government opting to go ahead with Prayuth Siripanich's blanket amnesty version if they are pushed into a corner. This option would need the Senate's cooperation to pass the bill. It is unlikely the Senate would give its backing.

This will be a risky game for the ruling Pheu Thai Party. While it may allow Thaksin to return home a free man, it is hard to imagine the fallout. If the government settles for this option, a House dissolution could be inevitable.


-- The Nation 2013-11-08

[noitom]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

[rametindallas]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

[Stradavarius37]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Thanks for adding an original thought and comment to this discussion. Because yours has never been opined on TV before....

[rametindallas]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Thanks for adding an original thought and comment to this discussion. Because yours has never been opined on TV before....

I get your sarcasm and admit it's tiresome if you've read it thousands of times but, you never know how many newbies are tuning in who don't have a long history of Thailand's political landscape.

[Hawkman]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Thanks for adding an original thought and comment to this discussion. Because yours has never been opined on TV before....

But, he's quite right.

Sent from my iPhone using ThaiVisa app

[ginjag]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Thanks for adding an original thought and comment to this discussion. Because yours has never been opined on TV before....

And your pro government-DENIAL attitude is new ????

[robblok]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Thanks for adding an original thought and comment to this discussion. Because yours has never been opined on TV before....

But, he's quite right.

Sent from my iPhone using ThaiVisa app

He is only red supporters see this differently. I still don't understand how educated people don't see the extra massive corruption and debt this PTP government is bringing upon the Thais and doing their best to get their master back at all cost.

[Spare]

General Sonthi Boonyaratglin can lead another GOOD COUP.

This time for good.

Arrest all Shinawatr, and deport the whole clan to Dubai.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The explanations of the options here in the various news reports over time have been confusing, at best. But it seems that if the Senate merely votes to reject the current pending bill, that would still allow the PT-controlled House to pass/enact it 180+ days later without any action by the Senate required.

The OP article above at least seems to do a better job of laying out some of the different alternatives... This one seems to be the cleanest way of ending all this with some certainty....but doubt it'll go this way.

One option by which the government can show its sincerity would be to withdraw the original bill proposed by Worachai. As the draft owner, Worachai can propose to the House to withdraw his bill. This will lead to the bill being dropped immediately if the House votes for the proposal. This could calm down the protesters, as some of them came out on the streets only to oppose the bill.

[Artisi]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Luckily there are a few others with agenda's that will more than likely be filled very quickly bringing to an abrupt end the agenda of the fugitive if and when he ever grows enough balls to return, which by the way he is free to do so right now.

[bigbamboo]

So that's what they mean by a maze in Thailand....

[Rimmer]

Empty post with messed up quotes removed

[chainarong]

If after 180 days the PTP re-enact this legislation , then hang onto your hats as the feeling in the Thai community is one of anger , betrayal and hatred and if Abhisit is convicted you better believe, it's the end of the PTP.

[bander]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Sad but true

[Benmart]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

It is not a Thai phenomenon. The world political scene is full of similar agendas?

[Benmart]

General Sonthi Boonyaratglin can lead another GOOD COUP.

This time for good.

Arrest all Shinawatr, and deport the whole clan to Dubai.

Let us hope there is a bit of law involved. Arresting and deporting a countries citizens sounds awfully similar to a certain Euopean country during the 1930s - 40s.

One day it's them that are being shipped off, the next day it may be one of us.

Think, think, think.

[RubbaJohnny]

Owe what a tangled HUB we weave when BIG BROTHER awol away on leave.

At least we can rest assured all our fine public servants have the needs of the country ahead of their personal enrichement and ambitions.

It is their fine example that has eradicated graft ,cronyism and nepotism and made it a spoke for sokespersonalities.In fact the standards are rising ahead of the floods and sea level to shine as beacon to the blind.

[Baerboxer]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Thanks for adding an original thought and comment to this discussion. Because yours has never been opined on TV before....

And your post adds exactly what ? Nothing it would appear.

[hellodolly]

Agenda, agenda, agenda. Thais are always driven by personal agenda. As the drama continues to unfold.

You are so right. This is ALL about Dr. Thaksin's agenda to come back, free and clear, and take back the reins of power. Since he has stated many times he will never accept defeat, Thailand will be plagued with this man's agenda 'till he dies.

Thanks for adding an original thought and comment to this discussion. Because yours has never been opined on TV before....

I get your sarcasm and admit it's tiresome if you've read it thousands of times but, you never know how many newbies are tuning in who don't have a long history of Thailand's political landscape.

Not sure there are many newbies tuning in. Just old posters who were banned and using new names.