Gloomy days ahead for Thai economy

[bkkden]

Wow, the Kra canal, that has been kicked around for about 20 years. What are they waiting for! It will divert a lot of shipping from Singapore to Thailand.

[retsdon]

Between Chinese re-balancing, US tapering, creeping worldwide interest rate rises and PTP's reckless mismanagement, there's something of a perfect storm developing for the Thai economy.

[Zumteufel]

LuckyLew, on 02 Jan 2014 - 12:09, said:

We farangs need more baht for the buck ... we have to keep getting visa and visa extension to stay here

Thais three favorite words are me me me ... so what is wrong with a little farang self interest?

So.....we should bring ourselves to the same intellectual level of some Thais?

What does self interest has to do with intellectual level?

[jpeg]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Too be fair, IMHO most expats including myself are here primarily for their own benefit. That's why people from around the world relocate to other countries.

Yeah, whoever said 'I think I'll retire to the Costa del Sol to help the Spanish out'

[LuckyLew]

LuckyLew, on 02 Jan 2014 - 12:09, said:

Costas2008, on 02 Jan 2014 - 11:02, said:

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

We farangs need more baht for the buck ... we have to keep getting visa and visa extension to stay here

Thais three favorite words are me me me ... so what is wrong with a little farang self interest?

So.....we should bring ourselves to the same intellectual level of some Thais?

When in Rome .................... 555

[jpeg]

Between Chinese re-balancing, US tapering, creeping worldwide interest rate rises and PTP's reckless mismanagement, there's something of a perfect storm developing for the Thai economy.

Dunno. They've been pretty much Teflon proof ever since 1997

[leggo]

A devalued Bhat will limit the effect of recent wage rises, reposition the export industries in a stronger position and allow the tourist destinations to be more cost competitive and so bounce back quicker. It's all part of the cycle. Make the most of it while you can because the cycle will eventually see it rise and that will have a different set of economic affects.

Your analysis under normal circumstances is quite correct but I dont think this is going to be a quick turnaround . Unfortunately Thailand has been for some time been following the get rich quickly system that so many other wonderful places around the world adapted and then discovered it was too late to recreate the atmosphere that made them popular in the first place. Thailand is not some sort of paradise on earth, although I have to say I absolutely love the place, and I do remember arriving on Karon beach thirty years ago and thinking this is it! I went back to visit this year and I can only describe it as being completely destroyed (and that is not how I would actually call it - just being polite) The problem is for the most part that the tourists who come here come for cheap everything,beaches and sex. and although TOT would love to upgrade Thailand as a classy destination it will never happen - classy people don't like overdevelopment , rubbish, dirty sea and hookers as a combo! I honestly think that Thailand needs to calm down ,look at what has happened and slowly but surely get themselves back on the right track but it will take a lot of courage and a lot of time. Meanwhile Happy New Year to all the other forum members who like myself are fortunate enough to live amongst these wonderful people.

[Ulic]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

Come on now, do you really believe either of these governments are competent. Suthep a bastion of morality and integrity.

vs Thaksin, the biggest hog at the trough. At least he brought in universal health care and his proposed amnesty bill pardoned

the corrupt and guilty on both sides. Granted he deserves to be in jail for life but Suthep should be doing some serious time

in the cell next to his.

[robblok]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

Come on now, do you really believe either of these governments are competent. Suthep a bastion of morality and integrity.

vs Thaksin, the biggest hog at the trough. At least he brought in universal health care and his proposed amnesty bill pardoned

the corrupt and guilty on both sides. Granted he deserves to be in jail for life but Suthep should be doing some serious time

in the cell next to his.

Agreed about Suthep, he is no angel. I was talking about people like Korn and Abisith. The democrats have always been better at fiscal discipline.

[godden]

i'm going native, me me me.

[tezzainoz]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

Clearly you have no recollection of the 1990s

As i have just read it were not the democrats that were in charge then. So please explain.

But its just a plan to shift attention from the embarrassment that is this red government. The whole world economy is improving and Thailand is slipping.. rice scam has destroyed their nr rice exporter status. They want to do off the books projects so then can steal more. Come on defend them and make a fool out of yourself.

I don't defend this govt's economic record. It is very poor. On the other hand, Thaksin was a very good manager. Thailand did well under his time. The old guard, Democrats and their allies/cronies were hopeless

Yes Thaskin did a great job for Issan while he was in power

he loaned my thai wife family a great deal of money for 3 years with no intersest

4 years later he took there farm as they had no way to pay it back

Yes Thaskin did a lot for Issan

But he did it all for himself

Next time you see your mentor, ask him how much money he ripped off the innocent families in their villages

He was a great manager , fo himself

[iancnx]

Good article here

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

Indeed, an excellent read and thoroughly recommended for posters who think they know what's going on, but don't really have a clue.

Most worrysome for me in very rural Thailand is:

.........Thailands household debt grew at an alarming 13.6 percent per year since 2008, bringing the countrys household debt-to-GDP ratio to 77 percent from 55 percent, which is up radically from just 45 percent a decade ago. Total lending to Thai households increased at a 17 percent annual rate from 2010 to 2012, while household credit provided by credit card, leasing and personal loan companies rose at a blistering 27 percent annual rate......

The crime rate will go up significantly once the bubble bursts!

[jpduggan]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Sometime when I have a lot more time I'll lay out a few facts about how your newly adopted country embraces you by overcharging you because you're a farang and cops pulling you over when they see a farang as an easy buck. I'm also delighted to see this country coming to it's knees with a crumbling baht. You're not a police or tourist police volunteer in your spare time by any chance are you?

[falangadang]

Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy.the country folk of north threw out a competent government in 2011 thinking they would be better off . Soon they will be lucky to have 2 bahts to rub together but plenty of rice and precisely little else.

"Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy"

So true King Alfred,... but that also applies to most western governments that I know of... US, UK and AUS (and in that order IMHO).

[MJP]

Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy.the country folk of north threw out a competent government in 2011 thinking they would be better off . Soon they will be lucky to have 2 bahts to rub together but plenty of rice and precisely little else.

"Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy"

So true King Alfred,... but that also applies to most western governments that I know of... US, UK and AUS (and in that order IMHO).

Who says they're managing economies for the benefit of the great unwashed? Of course they're not, in any of these countries apart from Iceland.

I don't know the answer to this, but how much of an increase in wealth have the wealthiest enjoyed over the past few years?

I'd say 'they' are managing economies very effectively.

Edited January 2, 2014 by MJP

[BEVUP]

I think someone forgot to tell the Thai - Chinese Moo Baan develpers

An increase of 6000 bht as of a mth ago from 1 year ago per 1 talang wah + as the usual with the 50 / 50 payment at the amphur

So nothing in the Realestate is dropping

[hellodolly]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Care about the country that we are living in,do you really think that the Thais care about us.I think that if Suthep gets his way it will be very hard for us to stay living in Thailand.

I think a lot to but have nothing to back it up.

What have you got to back up your statement.

By the way for one reason or another I have been hearing that statement of yours for years now.

[nidieunimaitre]

I am an idiot for supporting the democrats, the red government is much better at destroying the country and bringing the baht down. I have to thank this incompetent government for raping the country and destroying its economy giving me more baht for my euro.

How could i be so stupid to support a competent government while with idiots in charge the baht drops like a stone.

Are you referring to the previous Suthep & Chitchob government? (the government that used Abhisit as a spokesman and Kasit for entertainment).

The government that almost started a war with Kampuchea? How would that have been for destroying the country?

As for corruption, yes Thaksin is better at that game than your favourites, but after reaching a certain level, what does the exact ranking matter?

PS. The red shirts brought the bath down to 49 a euro, it got up to 39 about 3 months ago, now it is at 44 - but Suthep still has till 13 february to do better than the red shirts ( I hope he will not again postpone V day, as I am planning to buy a condo).

[CraigSchuler]

I think someone forgot to tell the Thai - Chinese Moo Baan develpers

An increase of 6000 bht as of a mth ago from 1 year ago per 1 talang wah + as the usual with the 50 / 50 payment at the amphur

So nothing in the Realestate is dropping

Not yet....Let's wait a while and see what happens!

[PaullyW]

Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy.the country folk of north threw out a competent government in 2011 thinking they would be better off . Soon they will be lucky to have 2 bahts to rub together but plenty of rice and precisely little else.

"Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy"

So true King Alfred,... but that also applies to most western governments that I know of... US, UK and AUS (and in that order IMHO).

Well, that's what we'd call a type of false argument.

Would it be the same or even similar level of incompetence? AFAIK, the standards of living on those western countries are far and away higher than that available in Thailand.

Edited January 2, 2014 by PaullyW

[Saradoc1972]

and if there are political problems or disturbances, who will want to holiday in thailand, even with a low thai baht?.

Me. But I liked Belfast in the early nineties, too.

Sent from my SGP312 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[SantiSuk]

Currency and investment markets are reacting to the political impasse, not specifically the rice scheme or subsidised cars or water management schemes. All politicians are to blame for that. This colour yah-boo-sucks debate that is being played out on Thai visa is pretty bloody childish.

[wolfmanjack]

CelticBhoy, on 02 Jan 2014 - 10:54, said:

Great news. Let the Baht slide

as it did in '97. No complaints

from me, that's for sure.

And then.....I am accused of bashing the Thais!

Self interest comments, like this, shows how much we care about the country we are living in!

Keep it up, mate, and I hope your wish will come true!!!!!!

Care about the country that we are living in,do you really think that the Thais care about us.I think that if Suthep gets his way it will be very hard for us to stay living in Thailand.

Can you help me out and point me to where you get your information about Suthep making it hard for us to stay in thailand?

I do not remember it getting more difficult when the Dems were in control but I do remember when Thaksin got into office the financial requirements being doubled.

[Asiantravel]

and if there are political problems or disturbances, who will want to holiday in thailand, even with a low thai baht?.

Me. But I liked Belfast in the early nineties, too.

Sent from my SGP312 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

you are definitely the exception. When people realise that all the neighbouring countries have got just as much to offer in their own unique way, Thailand will be severely knocked off the perch it has occupied rather arrogantly for so long

[falangadang]

Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy.the country folk of north threw out a competent government in 2011 thinking they would be better off . Soon they will be lucky to have 2 bahts to rub together but plenty of rice and precisely little else.

"Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy"

So true King Alfred,... but that also applies to most western governments that I know of... US, UK and AUS (and in that order IMHO).

Who says they're managing economies for the benefit of the great unwashed? Of course they're not, in any of these countries apart from Iceland.

I don't know the answer to this, but how much of an increase in wealth have the wealthiest enjoyed over the past few years?

I'd say 'they' are managing economies very effectively.

I wouldn't call a 17 trillion dollar unserviceable debt good management on the part of the US govt.

Neither was the unpinning of the dollar from the gold standard by Nixon in 1971 creating the world's most volatile fiat currency with its international currency value pinned to the price of oil!

Same for UK and AUS,.. hundreds of billions in debt that they can't resolve!

[indyuk]

Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy.the country folk of north threw out a competent government in 2011 thinking they would be better off . Soon they will be lucky to have 2 bahts to rub together but plenty of rice and precisely little else.

The fact is that each of the Thai Rak Thai and the Puea Thai governments have out performed all of the Democrat Governments economic outcomes while in office since the 1980's.

Edited January 3, 2014 by indyuk

[Prbkk]

Currency and investment markets are reacting to the political impasse, not specifically the rice scheme or subsidised cars or water management schemes. All politicians are to blame for that. This colour yah-boo-sucks debate that is being played out on Thai visa is pretty bloody childish.

It would be very interesting to know how the japanese, koreans, taiwanese view this impasse. While overseas investors in currency/stocks might make or lose a lot of money in these circumstances, the 'real' investors need to have confidence that things can get better.

[nong38]

export stronger because of weak baht: only good for these exporters who have 100 % thai-origin raw materials, no components bought abroad

but worse for inflation: rising prices for imported goods and how about energy? the world market's oil prices are quoted in usd!

and if there are political problems or disturbances, who will want to holiday in thailand, even with a low thai baht?

it's a cycle, that's for sure, but i would not need the political problems factor in the mix, that's a bad component for sure!

A devalued Bhat will limit the effect of recent wage rises, reposition the export industries in a stronger position and allow the tourist destinations to be more cost competitive and so bounce back quicker. It's all part of the cycle. Make the most of it while you can because the cycle will eventually see it rise and that will have a different set of economic affects.

It does make you wonder if the golden age of holidaying in Thailand has passed, I am sure TAT will tell you different but how many have been and are returning that is the true guage, best not to use that one then eh!

[MJP]

Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy.the country folk of north threw out a competent government in 2011 thinking they would be better off . Soon they will be lucky to have 2 bahts to rub together but plenty of rice and precisely little else.

"Bunch of incompetent idiots managing the economy"

So true King Alfred,... but that also applies to most western governments that I know of... US, UK and AUS (and in that order IMHO).

Who says they're managing economies for the benefit of the great unwashed? Of course they're not, in any of these countries apart from Iceland.

I don't know the answer to this, but how much of an increase in wealth have the wealthiest enjoyed over the past few years?

I'd say 'they' are managing economies very effectively.

I wouldn't call a 17 trillion dollar unserviceable debt good management on the part of the US govt.

Neither was the unpinning of the dollar from the gold standard by Nixon in 1971 creating the world's most volatile fiat currency with its international currency value pinned to the price of oil!

Same for UK and AUS,.. hundreds of billions in debt that they can't resolve!

I agree, but who's getting richer and benefiting from all this carnage. The super rich.

It's not being managed for your benefit or my benefit brother.

[kingalfred]

The fact is that each of the Thai Rak Thai and the Puea Thai governments have out performed all of the Democrat Governments economic outcomes while. in office since the 1980's.. when you think some things couldnt be made up a TV poster manages to do so

Edited January 3, 2014 by kingalfred