Civil conflict is sliding towards an uncivil war: Thailand

[Scamper]

Good article and summary of the situation. Although many are viewing this particular period in Thai history with acute anxiousness, it is in fact the troubled birth of a new consciousness in Thailand. This article sets the stage for all the historical events of the last ten years that have culminated into the situation of today. Things have most definitely changed. How have they changed ? With an administration teetering between a quorum-less parliament and impeachment, devoid of power in a now entrenched constitutional vacuum, they have no where to go, and no means to act. They have no authority to delegate funds. Their power is now measured by how they decide to use the emergency decree and how they decide to use the police. The mechanisms of democracy are no longer available to them. That's a huge, huge change - and would have been unthinkable just four months ago. Thaksin's grip on the status quo that has served him so well, has never been so weakened. The administration has run out of options. Thirayut's phrase recounted in this article - " a flock of vultures " - meant to describe the grip Thaksin once had on many commercial institutions - has now become an apt phrase that describes the encirclement of the Yingluck administration itself - from the oversight committees, from the courts, from the farmers, from the constitution, and ultimately - from the people themselves.

[moonao]

Unfortunately quite true. There is no middle ground here until one side is utterly gone.

I was listening to a couple neighbors discussing the situation, in Thai. Three times during the conversation the word "compromise" was clearly said, in English.

I guess there is no Thai word for "compromise"!

I'm guessing these neighbours watch blue sky TV channel and blow their whistles all day.

[rucus7]

almost 40 years here in Thailand and this is the time I can see civil war on the horizon ...so sad for a Country with massive potential

I agree with your closing thought: "a Country with massive potential" It is because of this potential, as well as billions in foreign investment. Thailand does not have the stomach for any kind of conventional civil war. Perhaps after 40 years your eyes don't delineate the horizon as clearly as they once did.

[Trembly]

Unfortunately quite true. There is no middle ground here until one side is utterly gone.

I was listening to a couple neighbors discussing the situation, in Thai. Three times during the conversation the word "compromise" was clearly said, in English.

I guess there is no Thai word for "compromise"!

There are quite a few Thai words for 'compromise' for various different contexts, which goes to show that Thai culture is conscious of compromise in some detail.

Nevertheless, Thais maintain a magpie-like habit of using foreign loan words, especially when the loan words allow them a free hand with nuance where existing Thai words may be unwieldy. Thais will also readily adopt foreign words when they're easier to say or allow them to break free from grammatical rules (foreign words allow them to mash them up into nouns or verbs or whatever as they see fit, sometimes chopping half the word off for the sake of convenience).

Edited February 14, 2014 by Trembly

[thhMan]

Lived here a lot longer than you have

And the article included no reference to anything you alluded to... I wonder why not? Police are all Thaksin cronies too!

The quote was meant for the quoted quote.....

My wifes dad was a policeman... (Thailand didnt take care of the family when he died, but I took over that "provider" responsibility, however, it gives me no rights apart from basically being classed a tourist plus some extra)... Now my missus see's things differently and through an outsiders eyes, she is quite disgusted in her country and how its people have let it go downhill... Perception is an amazing gift

[Why ask]

almost 40 years here in Thailand and this is the time I can see civil war on the horizon ...so sad for a Country with massive potential

I agree with your closing thought: "a Country with massive potential" It is because of this potential, as well as billions in foreign investment. Thailand does not have the stomach for any kind of conventional civil war. Perhaps after 40 years your eyes don't delineate the horizon as clearly as they once did.

Iterating 'conventional' civil war has its merits, and when considering 'conventional civil war' one can see that, actually, another form has been in motion for many a recent year.

It's called 'hidden agenda'. The hidden agenda of the corrupt vs. the honest persons. This has been in motion for eons, in short, and is a type of civil war, where those who are sympathetic to honesty and tradition get trampled on. Those with the riches, and power that comes with it, are the uncivil fighting to maintain wealth taken from the greater many. That is a 'hidden agenda civil war', and the one destroying this country, as the perpretrators rape and pillage what they can, and the honest worker is left feeling raped with no where to turn; as the places to turn are corrupt from the top down!

[Jeremy50]

almost 40 years here in Thailand and this is the time I can see civil war on the horizon ...so sad for a Country with massive potential

I agree with your closing thought: "a Country with massive potential" It is because of this potential, as well as billions in foreign investment. Thailand does not have the stomach for any kind of conventional civil war. Perhaps after 40 years your eyes don't delineate the horizon as clearly as they once did.

The land is over-farmed, the waters are over-fished, the roads are over-crowded, and the towns are over-populated. Perhaps you would like to detail what you mean by'massive potential'

[Why ask]

Lived here a lot longer than you have

And the article included no reference to anything you alluded to... I wonder why not? Police are all Thaksin cronies too!

The quote was meant for the quoted quote.....

My wifes dad was a policeman... (Thailand didnt take care of the family when he died, but I took over that "provider" responsibility, however, it gives me no rights apart from basically being classed a tourist plus some extra)... Now my missus see's things differently and through an outsiders eyes, she is quite disgusted in her country and how its people have let it go downhill... Perception is an amazing gift

I take no issue with you. I also understand your lack of any rights (99% of us have no rights after having lived here and paid our way for year upon year), plus my wife is also disgusted (as a very educated woman, also). My wife also sees things as a spectator, wisely, looking in upon her own country. She also sees the mess and corruption and you know what. However, referring back to the article alluding to monarchy, and let's be careful here, having little or minimal power compared to Thaksin's infiltration of everywhere, then I have to fully disagree. If his majesty makes an appearance then everybody is in floods of tears (including top red brass, maybe crocodile tears, but nevertheless), and that demonstrates the real respect for monarchy. The article is actually very insulting, and if the guy lived here and wrote that here - he'd be lynched! Perception is a weakness, oftentimes, if seen from a single vantage point.

Edited February 14, 2014 by Why ask

[rucus7]

almost 40 years here in Thailand and this is the time I can see civil war on the horizon ...so sad for a Country with massive potential

I agree with your closing thought: "a Country with massive potential" It is because of this potential, as well as billions in foreign investment. Thailand does not have the stomach for any kind of conventional civil war. Perhaps after 40 years your eyes don't delineate the horizon as clearly as they once did.

The land is over-farmed, the waters are over-fished, the roads are over-crowded, and the towns are over-populated. Perhaps you would like to detail what you mean by'massive potential'

Is there a Continent or Country you are not referring to?

[siampolee]

It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out or more doubtful of success nor more dangerous to handle than the establishment of a ''New Order.''

The reformist have enemies in the old established order who of course stand to profit yet again from the permanence of the old order. Often the support of the new order among its proponents is in the main lukewarm due to the uncertainty of a total success and of course the profit to be gained politically, socially and of course financially.

the worry of bloodshed of course rises to the top as we all know the birth of a human is a painful process, much the same as the birth of a new more democratic society.

Sadly the price to be paid by the defenders of the old and the proponents of the new here in Thailand might well be high given the track records of matters in the past.

Hopefully we will see a compromise of sorts and indeed the removal from the current scene of the more rabid unbalanced members of all sides involved in the matter.

Whether or not the military intervenes remains to be seen, however no doubt behind the scenes talks and moves are being held and made, we lesser mortals of course will not be privy to those matters only the resultant outcome.

Thailand is on a precipice.

Which way Thailand and its peoples fall will indeed determine the future for my and your children and grandchildren . We can but hope that whatever passes for sanity here in Thailand prevails.

There will be people who will have to leave both the political and business scene in Thailand from all sides, their departure will be of no loss to the country or its peoples.

Now is the Hour as the Hymn goes.

Let us hope that this coming hour has a peaceful tranquil outcome for all involved parties.

[Emster23]

"both sides' demand for justice and real democracy is the middle ground upon which a debate on the future of Thailand can be built"

I must have missed that part. Seems to be buzz phrases they use to hypnotize the masses. Both sides had plenty of time when they were in power to institute real justice and real democracy, but neither did. Judge a tree by it's fruit, and both of these have too many worms.

Tiger Woods for PM! Oh wait, he is "luk krung". Never mind......

[retsdon]

Thailand is fortunate that there are no outside powers with a dog in the fight, or the country would be started down the Syrian road already. That's the plus. The minus is that there's a power vacuum where there should be a functioning government and civil administration. Nature abhors a vacuum, so the danger is that the longer the crisis persists, the greater the danger of civil breakdown and the consequent rise of local strongmen running private fiefdoms. It's already happening to some extent, with people like Newin, Suthep, etc. Sooner or later the illusion of any central government control will fade, and then it will be every man for himself.

[JRSoul]

Unfortunately quite true. There is no middle ground here until one side is utterly gone.

I was listening to a couple neighbors discussing the situation, in Thai. Three times during the conversation the word "compromise" was clearly said, in English.

I guess there is no Thai word for "compromise"!

I'm guessing these neighbours watch blue sky TV channel and blow their whistles all day.

I'm guessing these neighbours watch blue sky TV channel and blow their whistles all day........as red shirts are hardly likely to understand compromise.

[aussieinthailand]

i wonder if that happens who will do all the manual labor ? more burmese ?for sure it wont be the Isaan folk ... Civil war or a breakaway state is the only real solution imo .... or a messiah appears in the form of a new political party with no ties to any of the present imbeciles .....

" I wonder if that happens who will do all the manual labor? more Burmese? for sure it wont be the Isaan folk..."

Firstly you profile a people from Isaan which is far from the truth, but what would be far closer to the truth would be the southern Thai's enjoy gambling on buffalo fights, chicken fights and birds in cages whistling instead of working and proclaim they are better and superior than any other Thai people, WHAT A LOAD OF <deleted>.... I know many very hard working Isaan people, but as for the southerners, well not so much.

Also I wonder where will the people from BKK and south get their rice, sugar and corn from? That's right the hard working Isaan people, Not so many Burmese working in the north as there is in the south tells you something huh!!!

The OP loves to slag off the red's and Thaksin and Yinluk claiming corruption, but where oh where is the balance??? No mention of Suthep and his corruption issues, land deals, and having his political companions wanting him out of their party due to his corrupt and unethical behavior, Like I said no surprise this bias stuff comes from the Nation...

[Baerboxer]

It may look like the brink but a compromise solution will be found without violence. All parties have too much to lose by NOT coming to a negotiated settlement. Suthep has taken this way too far and the sane voices in the democrats will now emerge to engage in dialogue

I really hope you are right. It looks like the new offers of talks are designed to give all a way out without losing face. Maybe saner heads on both sides realize that all have too much to lose. The reality though, is that PTP have to be sure to get immunity from the fiddles that might come to light whilst the opposition need to get assurance of no legal actions against recent behavior.

It's gonna be one hell of a negotiation - and the one joker in the deck is likely to be the thorn in reaching an agreement as his amnesty ain't gonna happen.

Just hope the talking, that's undoubtedly been going on behind all the games, carries on before a spark ignites it all!

[ANDY2463]

I hope and pray that this does not go to far and things can be sorted, becuse it does not take to long befor things can look like this,.Once they loose control it is very hard to get back to what you had before .

[Why ask]

i wonder if that happens who will do all the manual labor ? more burmese ?for sure it wont be the Isaan folk ... Civil war or a breakaway state is the only real solution imo .... or a messiah appears in the form of a new political party with no ties to any of the present imbeciles .....

" I wonder if that happens who will do all the manual labor? more Burmese? for sure it wont be the Isaan folk..."

Firstly you profile a people from Isaan which is far from the truth, but what would be far closer to the truth would be the southern Thai's enjoy gambling on buffalo fights, chicken fights and birds in cages whistling instead of working and proclaim they are better and superior than any other Thai people, WHAT A LOAD OF <deleted>.... I know many very hard working Isaan people, but as for the southerners, well not so much.

Also I wonder where will the people from BKK and south get their rice, sugar and corn from? That's right the hard working Isaan people, Not so many Burmese working in the north as there is in the south tells you something huh!!!

The OP loves to slag off the red's and Thaksin and Yinluk claiming corruption, but where oh where is the balance??? No mention of Suthep and his corruption issues, land deals, and having his political companions wanting him out of their party due to his corrupt and unethical behavior, Like I said no surprise this bias stuff comes from the Nation...

I have to say I agree with many of your words. However, what we do have to be careful of here is creating that divide between the alledged Isan community and that of BKK. Most, if not all, of persons I know in BKK are of descent from the north, and came here to better opportunities. The alledged divide between the north and south, or between Korat and BKK is propogated by the reds: who are actually a controlled war faction for self-improvement (promised by his truly in Dubai).

It's ok to pull in Suthep's corruption, and he has corrupted, but to ignore what this government has done to the hard-working rice farmers of late, and over the last 15 years, cannot be accepted.

What is needed is implementation of law, based upon democratic society (which is assumed to be, as most Thai law is based upon original UK law), without corruption. It is the sad domain of selfish indulgents spoiling it for the rest (Both parties included). I don't know a single police officer that does not own a THB 2M plus house... pls tell me.. how does that occur, in a democratic society believing in democratic laws implemented?

If democracy is real, there is no bias, as law does not permit it...... assuming the laws implemented are followed. That is the problem (IMHO).

Changes ARE needed.. and even the rice farmers have not much faith in the PTP government now. That is not a result of a single man of the name Suthep. That is a result of the rape of financial assets, for self-gain, by the monsters of the current caretaker government.

MEL1.

Edited February 14, 2014 by Why ask

[Ned]

Thailand will stagger on.....and on.....and on....from crisis to crisis as usual. Suthep will eventually extricate himself from the mess he has volunteered to lead. Deals will be done and the ship will sail on. It's safe on the streets and they're still giving us permission to stay and live here. What more could you reasonably ask for?

[neitmoj]

The problem is not phonetics it itself but the wrong kind of phonetics. Given the multiplicity of transliteration protocols and the inherent inability of the Latin alphabet to cope with Thai's nine vowels, 5 tones, and vowel length distinctions, the obvious answer is the International Phonetic Alphabet, which is 100% systematic, widely used worldwide, and entirely suited to Thai (or any other language, with adaptations). In this case, the phonetic transcription (excluding tones, which I don't know for this expression) would be /pra ni: pra nɔ:m/, with the colon representing long vowels, as is the international norm. Learning to read Thai is useful for living in Thailand (reading road signs, street names, etc.), but it's so full of redundancies and so unpredictable, it's a lousy way to learn the language. A writing system representing 31 phonemes (basic sounds) using 44 consonant letters, around 12-15 vowel letters depending on how you count them, and four syllabic symbols, which represents tone erratically, and is full of perverse rules (the location of vowels, for example) is a huge disincentive for interested learners, many of whom soon give up. But apart from US Department of State materials going back to the 70s, I've never seen IPA used in textbooks or met a Thai teacher who'd heard of it.

[Crossy]

Let's stay on topic chaps, Thai language dicussions in the Thai-Language forum only please.

[Crushdepth]

The Idiotic Idea that the military should lead the country is tantamount to giving the Elite free hand in running the country, and clearly not acceptable to the people of the free democratic Thailand, who would be better off with the division of the country rather than give up it Democratic ideals to a dictatorship or of a civil war.

As Bangkok is dependent for its water supply from the red sections of the country, a compromise can be worked out between both countries for free Thailand to supply water and rice to the Dictatorship in exchange for a seaport facility for Free Thailand.

Cheers

Most stupid post of 2014.

[Thaiready]

North against the South.....sound familar.....we all know who won that one.

[Thaiready]

And what has you man did good for Thailand....????

Unfortunately quite true. There is no middle ground here until one side is utterly gone. Civil war seems to be the only way out since both sides don't seem to want to budge. An alternative would be to let the North and Northeast just break away and form the Shin Republic. Would love to see how they manage without the 'urban middle class elite royalists' from Bangkok bothering them.

This article casts some light on who is in which camp: http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2014/02/07/the-weakness-of-the-thai-royalists/

Good Lord, what a load of complete codswallop that article is, from a spectator who neither even lives here nor obviously knows Thailand very well.

That was a lecture in one vision, from one single perspective, and from yours truly - a Thaksin freak. No mention of corruption, not a mention of the financial rape, no mention of the illegal deaths caused, and no mention of a corrupt fugitive who illegally interferes with the operations of a government leading a country whilst in exile.

Tremendous insight that lecturer has... NOT!

[Dogmatix]

The woman in the photograph has a very large nose and might not be Thai. I suggest Chalerm gets the face recognition software out and have her deported.

[3NUMBAS]

raise the living standards of those upcountry and you could head off trouble but that would mean those townies getting a smaller piece of the pie and they wouldnt wear it.

decades of corruption have failed to spread wealth around the country and just held by the few .

so it looks like a rerun of the French revolution ,heads will be lopped off .

and there is the unmentionable topic that we cant discuss that would have repercussions on the outcome .

[Emptyset]

The OP loves to slag off the red's and Thaksin and Yinluk claiming corruption, but where oh where is the balance??? No mention of Suthep and his corruption issues, land deals, and having his political companions wanting him out of their party due to his corrupt and unethical behavior, Like I said no surprise this bias stuff comes from the Nation...

Actually the article was written by Walden Bello, a Filipino academic and social activist. The Nation just reprinted it. He's pretty well known in some circles and has spent a lot of time in Thailand. He's actually got a lot of sympathy for the red shirts. Many anti-reds on here would disagree with his views I'd guess. I think the article was pretty well balanced, bearing in mind it was written for a foreign audience not necessarily familiar with the situation. It highlighted what was bad about Thaksin but also why he still has a lot of support. You can't go into every detail.

Similarly that Patrick Jory article posted on here, I'm not particularly convinced by it and I think it's seen through a very specific lense which isn't necessarily representing all aspects of the conflict accurately, but not convinced by some of the criticisms here either. That's written for an academic website with people already broadly familiar with the situation in mind. So you can't really criticize him for not mentioning Thaksin's corruption. It's (correctly) assumed that people are already familiar with that. Bello's article is an overview for people who might not know the details so it's correct to give some context to the situation, with particularly emphasis on Thaksin's background.

You've only got so much space in these articles. Maybe Bello should've mentioned Suthep's dodgy background too, but you could argue his background isn't particularly important. On the one hand he's a proxy for certain elite interests, but on the other he's channeling the voice of a frustrated middle class. Walden expresses the latter pretty well but perhaps should have spent more time on the former. Jory focuses on the former, but forgets the latter. He seems to ignore the valid concerns of the anti-govt protesters and instead considers them to be simply defending elite interests. Pretty much the same as those who think the red shirts didn't have genuine grievances but were simply Thaksin's marionettes. Glad Bello realizes it's more complicated than that.

[Trembly]

The OP loves to slag off the red's and Thaksin and Yinluk claiming corruption, but where oh where is the balance??? No mention of Suthep and his corruption issues, land deals, and having his political companions wanting him out of their party due to his corrupt and unethical behavior, Like I said no surprise this bias stuff comes from the Nation...

Actually the article was written by Walden Bello, a Filipino academic and social activist. The Nation just reprinted it. He's pretty well known in some circles and has spent a lot of time in Thailand. He's actually got a lot of sympathy for the red shirts. Many anti-reds on here would disagree with his views I'd guess. I think the article was pretty well balanced, bearing in mind it was written for a foreign audience not necessarily familiar with the situation. It highlighted what was bad about Thaksin but also why he still has a lot of support. You can't go into every detail.

Similarly that Patrick Jory article posted on here, I'm not particularly convinced by it and I think it's seen through a very specific lense which isn't necessarily representing all aspects of the conflict accurately, but not convinced by some of the criticisms here either. That's written for an academic website with people already broadly familiar with the situation in mind. So you can't really criticize him for not mentioning Thaksin's corruption. It's (correctly) assumed that people are already familiar with that. Bello's article is an overview for people who might not know the details so it's correct to give some context to the situation, with particularly emphasis on Thaksin's background.

You've only got so much space in these articles. Maybe Bello should've mentioned Suthep's dodgy background too, but you could argue his background isn't particularly important. On the one hand he's a proxy for certain elite interests, but on the other he's channeling the voice of a frustrated middle class. Walden expresses the latter pretty well but perhaps should have spent more time on the former. Jory focuses on the former, but forgets the latter. He seems to ignore the valid concerns of the anti-govt protesters and instead considers them to be simply defending elite interests. Pretty much the same as those who think the red shirts didn't have genuine grievances but were simply Thaksin's marionettes. Glad Bello realizes it's more complicated than that.

Seconded.