Thai army chief cautions nation may 'collapse' as violence escalates

[noitom]

The Thai army chief is public stating that the nation will collapse if violence continues. So his statements imply that he and the army are powerless to control the violence. The Thai army is stating that they are powerless. The Thai army pulled the plug on a mandated elected government in an overnight coup while the Pm was out of Thailand. Now they are claiming over seven years later that they are powerless and that if violence continues, the nation will collapse. This is shameful.

[tomyummer]

Each and every Thai is to blame for the collapse if any. You all sit by and do nothing for years, cry for the wrong reasons at the wrong times, don't pay attention or educate your own people, and definitely don't want any help or advice unless it means you can make a baht. You'd take advantage and eat each other for breakfast at any given chance.

And look where we are at after another 3 years? Shame on everyone. The country has been through the wringer before, the country will get over, but after how many deaths? We don't know that one.

Edited February 24, 2014 by tomyummer

[JRSoul]

But, they haven't got rid of him.

That's part of my point.

I think people exaggerate Thaksin's aspirations, sometimes comparing him to the likes of Hitler.

He didn't need to control everything, as he already had the strongest democratic mandate in Thai history! (AFAIK)

I don't think anyone could argue that the military doesn't need some sort of stronger regulation and not have so much power also.

"....he already had the strongest democratic mandate in Thai history! (AFAIK)"

Ask yourself why he called an election 15 months into that mandate. It was to distract from the protests over his blatant corruption.

You are right about the coup, it was a mistake in timing. He should have been arrested, charged, tried, found guilty of corruption and abuse of position and jailed for 20 years if not executed.

[Thai at Heart]

In a way, for the long run, its better for this idiotic stalemate to continue so that there are some real consequences for this behaviour

[Jingthing]

In a way, for the long run, its better for this idiotic stalemate to continue so that there are some real consequences for this behaviour

Are expats allowed to be truthfully selfish?

Because those "real consequences" could well mean actual civil war and us expats OUT OF HERE.

For some, no big deal.

For others, devastating.

Now expecting some flames that I don't have the best interest of Thailand in mind.

In any case, civil wars do not appeal, easy visas or not.

[3NUMBAS]

If this conflict sadly evolves into long term protracted civil war, myself and I suspect

a whole lot of other people will be out of here in short order. If the military is considering

stepping in ( that is a joke if you do not know Thai history) , they should do it soon.

With enough bloodshed on both sides, positions will be hardened, and then there is

no fix...

no no that will be a disaster as it will bring out the gumment supporters en masse .

pitched battles and guerilla warfare they have already promised .

they wont take another overthrow of a democratically elected PM.

that would be the last straw .

[Jingthing]

That's another possibility, sure.

A coup justified to prevent a civil war and getting a civil war anyway.

The good choices left would require the powers here to be reasonable.

Good luck with that.

[Thai at Heart]

In a way, for the long run, its better for this idiotic stalemate to continue so that there are some real consequences for this behaviour

Are expats allowed to be truthfully selfish?

Because those "real consequences" could well mean actual civil war and us expats OUT OF HERE.

For some, no big deal.

For others, devastating.

Now expecting some flames that I don't have the best interest of Thailand in mind.

In any case, civil wars do not appeal, easy visas or not.

Well, I don't presume that would lead to expats running for it, but the reality is, the leaders mess and manipulate these things with absolutely NO consequence at all.

This is half the problem

[Basil B]

If there is a coup, I hope this time before the Army returns the country back to the people to elect a new government they investigate all politicians of all parties who may have committed crimes of corruption or worse and ensure they are bared from standing for election.

This may take years but it is the only way forward for Thailand.

[TVGerry]

Well if that's the problem with bloodless coups unfortunately.

Besides the implication of wishing death upon the man (little extreme!) - I don't think they should've gotten rid of him by coup at all.

They got rid of him by coup because they knew his party would win again in the election, that's why the coup was staged just a couple of months before the confirmed general election was to take place.

That's corruption.

He's the most divisive figure around. A whole lot of people love him so much they would kill for him while a whole lot of people wishes he were dead. And these 2 groups of people would gladly kill each other. Take him out of the equation and while it won't solve all of this country's problems, it sure as hell fixes a lot of things.

Like I said, if they hadn't staged a coup, he would have over the years managed to infiltrate the 2 branches of the government with the power right now to oppose him, the military and the judiciary. He came close to controlling the army once with his cousin. With those in the bag, you think he would need elections anymore? He would have been the next Marcos, Mugabe or al-Bashir. And it's no exaggeration when you put his name next to these elected heads because we've already seen what he is capable of with his drug war and his handling of the South.

[dude123]

Well, I just canceled my 30 day trip to Thailand. My wife is a little angry with me, but things don't look safe enough that I want to risk my family going over there.

[Tokay]

In a way, for the long run, its better for this idiotic stalemate to continue so that there are some real consequences for this behaviour

Are expats allowed to be truthfully selfish?

Because those "real consequences" could well mean actual civil war and us expats OUT OF HERE.

For some, no big deal.

For others, devastating.

I won't go anywhere unless it turns into a Burma or African style conflict, or mass random violence against foreigners starts to happen. Then again, by the time any of that happens, it may be too late.

This place is going to go tits up eventually. Everyone knows it but none of us really want to admit it or even discuss it as a real possibility. It's just a matter of when.

[Tokay]

If there is a coup, I hope this time before the Army returns the country back to the people to elect a new government they investigate all politicians of all parties who may have committed crimes of corruption or worse and ensure they are bared from standing for election.

This may take years but it is the only way forward for Thailand.

The Army turns it back over to the people who vote the same group of people right back into office, and here we go again.

The country is just too divided. It's going to be a failed state eventually with the best option splitting the country into two or even three parts. Otherwise, it will continue being groundhog day like it is now.

[Bkkbound]

Besides the implication of wishing death upon the man (little extreme!) - I don't think they should've gotten rid of him by coup at all.

They got rid of him by coup because they knew his party would win again in the election, that's why the coup was staged just a couple of months before the confirmed general election was to take place.

That's corruption.

A man responsible for thousands of extrajudicial murders under his war on drugs campaign, the death penalty is the lawful punishment in Thailand.

There was a lot of hard talk from Thaksin during that time, I agree and I am totally against him for that, the WOD in Thailand has always sickened me.

Do you hold those who pulled the trigger responsible or those in power who advocated the war on drugs?

I hold Taksin responsible for unleashing the forces that created such havoc, murder and misery on thousands of families. He is a man that lied and bribed his way into power even in his first election 'victory', someone even blew up his plane in Don Muang on one occasion. He has never united Thailand, consolidating power through division, corruption , threats and bullshit. Thailand deserves better, the thai people deserve better, he offers nothing but self enrichment and trouble.

the 737 that burnt up was caused by over an hour delay while waiting for him as came to the airport, he was LATE, so other passengers had to sit and wait.

If you will use google an check, from the investigation by US FBI and Boeing's findings, that

it was not a bomb, but a "aircraft" heat and fuel vapor explosion. Another guppy(B737) also

did the same thing before, but t only spun it as they tried to kill him.

rice555

He certainly carries a lot of bad Karma around him

[nottocus]

This place is going to go tits up eventually. Everyone knows it but none of us really want to admit it or even discuss it as a real possibility. It's just a matter of when.

True.

[scorecard]

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When the general speaks, everyone gets nervous. But if the violence does escalate, the army will intervene to prevent the nation from 'collapsing'. So a coup seems likely.

On another note, it was nice of AFP to mention Yingluck. I'm glad the PM is serving the country in it's time of need by inspecting produce. alt=clap2.gif width=31 height=25>

Plus, note that AFP didn't mention the rice scam or the protests by the farmers at not being paid, AFP as always unbalanced.

[Timwin]

Thai army is the current holder of world record in the number of coups since 1932. In the past they did not waste time doing another one regardless how many lives were lost in the process but today, the generals just do not want to get involved!

It means only one thing. The officers supporting the Reds have significant clout inside the army. That is preventing another coup. The older generals are instead afraid of an internal coup from below or the army fracturing badly.

Back in 2006 the Yellow (older) officers had just enough power left to initiate another coup but in the end it failed. Today they have even less power because the older generals and other officers have retired. That is why they have taken the neutral stance. I think what happened in Ukraine in recent weeks (the army there did not get involved) is further enforcing that stance.

[Mosha]

It won't be for shortage of generals

"The Thai military now has more than 1,750 flag officers (generals and admirals), a bloated number for a military of its size. Many of these officers - perhaps most - do not perform duties commensurate with their rank and many literally have no job at all. What they do have, however, is the rank, high salary and status among the rank and file that comes with the position of a flag officer

In 2011 USA withbases worlwide a war in Afghanistan managed to struggle by with 312,

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/5920:the-pentagons-biggest-overrun-way-too-many-generals

Booming happy safe Costa Rica has none but does have democracy coffee that is not three in one sadly it hasn't managed how to rent its daughters to old foreigners or become a hub of scams

A country that has not fought a war in living memory has twice as many generals as public libraries

http://www.kc.tsukuba.ac.jp/assets/files/030219a.pdf

The fact that it has chosen to stand back so far is remarkabe achievement.

And I thought where I worked was top heavy.

[webfact]

POLITICS
Army chief urges talks
Panya Thiosangwan,
Jeerapong Prasertpolkrung,
Pravit Rojanaphruk
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Prayuth says military will be on sidelines, as it fears intervening may worsen crisis; Yingluck said in a trembling voice that she was "staying on to protect democracy"

After a weekend of deadly violence, Army Chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha yesterday urged all parties to sit down and talk - to try to find a way to prevent the country from plunging into further drama.

In a rare television address on military-run Channel 5, Prayuth reiterated that the army had no intention of playing an active role in forcing a solution to the ongoing political strife.

Meanwhile, caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said in a separate interview that there was nothing better than all sides coming together. "When violence is used, the pain will eventually be felt by the nation," she said.

But, the PM said she would not resign as demanded by anti-government protesters, because it would create a political vacuum.

They spoke after fatal attacks on the anti-government protesters in Trat province on Saturday and in Bangkok on Sunday claimed four lives, three of them children aged four, five and six years old.

In Trat, assailants threw grenades and randomly shot at people including those eating noodles at a stall. Meanwhile, an M-79 grenade was fired close to the Ratchprasong rally site, killing a young boy and his sister.

Many others were also injured in the attacks, and both left a young girl in intensive care units, with one in a coma.

Prayuth, reading from a prepared document, said it was the government that had the primary duty to stop people using violence, and he believed some of those behind the violence were linked to attacks during the 2010 red-shirt protests.

The army is collecting evidence and investigating in order to bring the culprits to justice.

"The army are not afraid of doing duties to bring those responsible for the violence to justice. However, we worry that there would be more casualties, as some groups do not understand and oppose our duties," he said.

"I urge all demonstrators not to trespass or seize government offices or use weapons against officials in order to avoid officials having to respond in accordance with the constitution," he said.

"Someone must be held responsible for serious acts but it doesn't means the military can use force to resolve the situation because the current conflict occurs at numerous levels and involves officers and many groups of civilians.

"If (military) force is used to try to solve the problem … laws and the constitution will have to be nullified.

"Many parties may want to use this method but let us reconsider and come to our senses as to whether the problem can be resolved through peaceful means or not.

"If we do it that way (military force), will we further spread violence or not, as people on all sides are still being mobilised to fight one another?"

Prayuth expressed condolences to the families of those killed and injured in the new wave of violence and warned of a "great loss for the country" if nothing was done to stop it soon.

PM to stay until the last minute

He said it was imperative that all sides tried to hold talks soon.

Protest leaders, however, have demanded that the PM resign and refuse to talk.

Yingluck was asked what she would do if there was a coup and she was held. The PM said would fight and do her job till the last minute.

She expressed her condolences to the families of those killed in attacks in recent days and condemned the perpetrators.

The PM questioned whether protesters really wanted her to have no place in Thai society. With her eyes brimming with tears and her voice trembling, she said: "I am staying on to protect democracy."

Meanwhile, National Human Rights Commissioner Niran Pitakwatchara said Thailand was on the brink of civil war and becoming a failed state.

"If the situation goes on like this, the country will collapse. [Thailand] will become a failed state," he said.

Peace advocate Gothom Arya urged both sides to stop blaming each other. He warned red shirts not to confront the People's Democratic Reform Committee, saying it would not do any good. He called on PDRC supporters to stop idolising the so-called "popcorn" gunmen, who have secretly back them at times of emergency.

Ekachai Srivilas, director of the Office of Peace and Governance at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said Prayuth's decision to speak out was good but he called on all armed forces leaders to publicly commit to being mediators in the conflict.


-- The Nation 2014-02-25

[smutcakes]

If there is a coup, I hope this time before the Army returns the country back to the people to elect a new government they investigate all politicians of all parties who may have committed crimes of corruption or worse and ensure they are bared from standing for election.

This may take years but it is the only way forward for Thailand.

And who is going to investigate the army for corruption?

[chooka]

I have concerns about a coup as I think the country will explode if the Army moved in. A lot of reds won't be to happy if the army throws out their government again.

[chainarong]

CIC General Prayuth, the conditions are now at a stage were your help will be required to prevent a civil war , remembering as stated before , this will not prevent the hate that is now in the community., Thailand is a divided nation and will be possibly forever.

[Mackie]

The army undoubtedly want what is the best for the country. They are stuck in between the devil and the deep blue sea. However inaction could prove to be very costly as they may have no country to defend.

I know that a lot of reds won't be happy if their representatives are replaced but will they finally start obeying the law, stop corruption on a massive scale and stop bloody pillaging national economy for their own gains. Winning the election does not give the winning side automatic right to do as they're pleased. No matter what happens if Thailand is ever going to be normal country armed political party members and paramilitary formations on both sides (mainly UDD-no need to deny it) must be disarmed. Alternative is political violence for many years to come.

[smutcakes]

I doubt very much the army are hamstrung, they are rightly wary of the international implications, the internal matters will be dealt with swiftly and ruthlessly, Taksins thugs would evaporate overnight once they realise the money tap has been turned off. As per the last coup, there will be flowers and smiles on the streets in response. The key to the next coup is taking out the shins properly.

I would be very surprised to see flowers and smiles this time round.

The dynamic of the current situation bears little resemblance to 2006 or 2010

The Army would have come out already if it was able to reach consensus internally but clearly it has not.

There are far to many variables this time for it to confidently act "swiftly and ruthlessly" and any attempt to do so may quite possibly precipitate a full blown civil war.

The Army has good reason to fear such an outcome as it could ultimately compromise it's historically privileged position.

You attach far too much importance to the notion that the red shirts will react, its just won't happen, they have a lot of thugs who are in reality police officers doing the shins bidding.. there will be no civil war, there is no force other than the police capable of any sort of co-ordinated response and we all know how inept they are. The failure of the 2006 coup was not dealing a death blow to the Shins ambitions, this time round the delay may well just be a matter of giving him enough rope to finally put him and the country out of its misery.

Its not the red shirts who i am worried about, it is internal fighting within the army. Maybe most of the powerful generals are anti Thaksin, but i believe many of the lower ranks and particularly the rank and file, many of whom are from red leaning areas are not.

I believe if the Generals were confident of their ability to conduct a coup they would have done it already. The most dangerous thing for the country would be for there to be an attempted coup and infighting within the army started.

[carbine1125]

There will be a coup and in 2-years the other side will be on the street and the powers that be will cave to their wishes and so on and so on ... nothing will change until people accept election results and let their terms play out or use the courts and political process and not holding areas of a city hostage. I say this as somebody who firmly believes no leader should be able to hold their post if they are in ongoing communications with a wanted criminal ... especially one who is trying to influence Thai policy while in exile.

Forget all the BS about vote buying in the north, all sides can and do give bribes. I think very highly of Abhisit but he blew it by not doing more for the people in the north to show them his party is truly the one who is going to make their lives better in the long run.

No matter what people think about Thaksin, the coup of 2006 has turned out to be the worst decision in modern Thai history.

But hindsight is 20/20 unfortunately.

While he clearly had his faults and believe his goal was to be the ultimate life long leader of Thailand there would have been much less ugly ways to deal with the issue. Not to mention, he did a lot for folks in Bangkok during his time including the MRT and new Airport. Most of these people who get overly passionate and go from not wanting to kill a bug to cheering when a cop is blown up are not really effected directly much at all by which side is in power. Although I think the rice scam was bad, I actually can relate to the people in the North being more passionate as many more are directly impacted by who is in power (many free handouts vs. not so many).

I am just not sure anything can really change when closing down roads and things like hate speech and storming or blocking access to government buildings can be considered peaceful way of protesting and is often rewarded, especially when it goes on for weeks or months. On the other hand, I don't think the heavy handed tactics used in some places in the west to silence protesters is right either. Has to be somewhere in the middle.

I wonder how much the MRT and the new airport did for him?

[Crushdepth]

Meanwhile the PM is inspecting vegetables. Unbelievable.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Thai at Heart]

The army undoubtedly want what is the best for the country. They are stuck in between the devil and the deep blue sea. However inaction could prove to be very costly as they may have no country to defend.

I know that a lot of reds won't be happy if their representatives are replaced but will they finally start obeying the law, stop corruption on a massive scale and stop bloody pillaging national economy for their own gains. Winning the election does not give the winning side automatic right to do as they're pleased. No matter what happens if Thailand is ever going to be normal country armed political party members and paramilitary formations on both sides (mainly UDD-no need to deny it) must be disarmed. Alternative is political violence for many years to come.

They don't want what's best for the country. They want what's best for their bank balance.

I didn't seem them giving back any of their gigantic funding increase after the coup or under abhisit.

Obviously worried that Cambodia or Burma were about to invade. Get away from this idea of the benevolent army. Armies fight wars, and the thai army isn't it even very good at that.

[Thai at Heart]

I doubt very much the army are hamstrung, they are rightly wary of the international implications, the internal matters will be dealt with swiftly and ruthlessly, Taksins thugs would evaporate overnight once they realise the money tap has been turned off. As per the last coup, there will be flowers and smiles on the streets in response. The key to the next coup is taking out the shins properly.

I would be very surprised to see flowers and smiles this time round.

The dynamic of the current situation bears little resemblance to 2006 or 2010

The Army would have come out already if it was able to reach consensus internally but clearly it has not.

There are far to many variables this time for it to confidently act "swiftly and ruthlessly" and any attempt to do so may quite possibly precipitate a full blown civil war.

The Army has good reason to fear such an outcome as it could ultimately compromise it's historically privileged position.

You attach far too much importance to the notion that the red shirts will react, its just won't happen, they have a lot of thugs who are in reality police officers doing the shins bidding.. there will be no civil war, there is no force other than the police capable of any sort of co-ordinated response and we all know how inept they are. The failure of the 2006 coup was not dealing a death blow to the Shins ambitions, this time round the delay may well just be a matter of giving him enough rope to finally put him and the country out of its misery.

Its not the red shirts who i am worried about, it is internal fighting within the army. Maybe most of the powerful generals are anti Thaksin, but i believe many of the lower ranks and particularly the rank and file, many of whom are from red leaning areas are not.

I believe if the Generals were confident of their ability to conduct a coup they would have done it already. The most dangerous thing for the country would be for there to be an attempted coup and infighting within the army started.

This time, the reds would shoot back, nationwide. The army couldn't quell an uprising up country. No way.

[mrtoad]

Meanwhile the PM is inspecting vegetables. Unbelievable.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Is there a cabinet meeting?

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Professor Kevin]

The army undoubtedly want what is the best for the country. They are stuck in between the devil and the deep blue sea. However inaction could prove to be very costly as they may have no country to defend.

I know that a lot of reds won't be happy if their representatives are replaced but will they finally start obeying the law, stop corruption on a massive scale and stop bloody pillaging national economy for their own gains. Winning the election does not give the winning side automatic right to do as they're pleased. No matter what happens if Thailand is ever going to be normal country armed political party members and paramilitary formations on both sides (mainly UDD-no need to deny it) must be disarmed. Alternative is political violence for many years to come.

They don't want what's best for the country. They want what's best for their bank balance.

I didn't seem them giving back any of their gigantic funding increase after the coup or under abhisit.

Obviously worried that Cambodia or Burma were about to invade. Get away from this idea of the benevolent army. Armies fight wars, and the thai army isn't it even very good at that.

The army has been ordered to get rid of the Thaksin group, once and for all. The problem is the USA will immediately stop their enormous funding the minute the tanks roll. The generals that are feeding at this trough do not want to have that money flow cut so they are engineering a judicial coup.

The court, stacked with Thaksins enemies have been tasked to do the dirty work this time.

To hell with the voters.