Interesting commentary on Thai economy from Reuters

[Naam]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

At $200K per year, I'd have some discretionary income (after food, shelter, clothing, health care) that I can use to pay down the debt.

At $20K per year, I'd have no discretionary income and will probably have to go further in debt just to make ends meet.

In one case, it's conceivable that I can make some adjustments to the behavior that got me $200K into debt and pay my way out. In the other, it's just too bad...

California and the USA have all kinds of resources and assets they haven't tapped yet to "make ends meet" because it's politically suicidal to tap them. Hopefully, that switch will happen in my lifetime- but I'm not holding my breath.

Not sure Thailand has that kind of bench to call up.

I agree with you ,here in Thailand the people have no wiggle room ,so many Thais i know are way over their heads in Debt ,wheras in the west there are many safty nets ,but please do not tell Naam i said this as he knows more than all of us put together

i never contradict you when you are right

but am i right this time? i think i am.

even a blind chicken finds a grain once in a while

[SheungWan]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

Good info. Thanks.

Now.....Apologies in advance.

What was Enron's a year before they went belly up? What was Lehman's in 2007?

As far as I am aware Enron and Lehman were companies, not countries and we are a few years on.

[impulse]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

Good info. Thanks.

Now.....Apologies in advance.

What was Enron's a year before they went belly up? What was Lehman's in 2007?

As far as I am aware Enron and Lehman were companies, not countries and we are a few years on.

That's true. But I'm speaking to the credibility of the ratings agencies- who seem to be involved up to their little necks in keeping the money flowing into the trough, right up until the bottom falls out.

[SheungWan]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

Good info. Thanks.

Now.....Apologies in advance.

What was Enron's a year before they went belly up? What was Lehman's in 2007?

As far as I am aware Enron and Lehman were companies, not countries and we are a few years on.

That's true. But I'm speaking to the credibility of the ratings agencies- who seem to be involved up to their little necks in keeping the money flowing into the trough, right up until the bottom falls out.

Investors will consider current detailed evaluations from ratings agencies ahead of a few wild surmises from forum contributors who are just bouncing off a few headlines. PS Moody's have said they are reviewing Thailand's rating in the light of persistent adverse developments (as they would), but since Thailand's is currently at the higher end of the lower medium grade there is some way to go before they are adjudged to have dropped into junk bond status.

[marcusd]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

Good info. Thanks.

Now.....Apologies in advance.

What was Enron's a year before they went belly up? What was Lehman's in 2007?

As far as I am aware Enron and Lehman were companies, not countries and we are a few years on.

But unfortunately there seems to be nothing learned. Companies like those mentioned were larger than THAILAND as an economic measure

[impulse]

Investors will consider current detailed evaluations from ratings agencies ahead of a few wild surmises from forum contributors who are just bouncing off a few headlines. PS Moody's have said they are reviewing Thailand's rating in the light of persistent adverse developments (as they would), but since Thailand's is currently at the higher end of the lower medium grade there is some way to go before they are adjudged to have dropped into junk bond status.

That's a good explanation, and I don't disagree with your point. But it seems the ratings usually go down when the investors run for the door.

Leading me to wonder which is the cause, which is the effect, and whether the ratings agencies are dealing out the information fairly and timely, or if they've got other motives or maybe they're just slow on the uptake.

Edited March 2, 2014 by impulse

[Naam]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

Good info. Thanks.

Now.....Apologies in advance.

What was Enron's a year before they went belly up? What was Lehman's in 2007?

As far as I am aware Enron and Lehman were companies, not countries and we are a few years on.

But unfortunately there seems to be nothing learned. Companies like those mentioned were larger than THAILAND as an economic measure

and Santa Claus is a ladyboy who lives in Pattaya when it's not Christmas time

p.s. your avatar applies

Edited March 2, 2014 by Naam

[fletchsmile]

I'd say Thailand is fairing better than Detroit

Cheers

Fletch

[SheungWan]

Investors will consider current detailed evaluations from ratings agencies ahead of a few wild surmises from forum contributors who are just bouncing off a few headlines. PS Moody's have said they are reviewing Thailand's rating in the light of persistent adverse developments (as they would), but since Thailand's is currently at the higher end of the lower medium grade there is some way to go before they are adjudged to have dropped into junk bond status.

That's a good explanation, and I don't disagree with your point. But it seems the ratings usually go down when the investors run for the door.

Leading me to wonder which is the cause, which is the effect, and whether the ratings agencies are dealing out the information fairly and timely, or if they've got other motives or maybe they're just slow on the uptake.

All 3 ratings agencies currently have a similar rating for Thailand. The agencies have provided a marker. If you believe that the agencies are currently behind the curve and that Thailand's credit ratings will drop 3 levels into junk bond territory this year then you can say so and if you are an investor you can act on that belief.

[i claudius]

I was watching CNN today and they had the head honch of one of Thailands largest building co and they are cutting back by 1/3rd ,he did say that he believed things would pick up later in the yrar ,they then spoke to an economist who said he did not think things would get better in Thailand in the near future and he thought there were problems ahead.

[Bkungbank]

Airport taxes plan to inrease again from AoT with nearly 1 trillion BAht per year from tourist income which stand 25 % from GDP why haven't being taken good care with, at first plan to introduce 500 baht medicare insurance for every tourist for only 300- 500 Millions Baht spend on tourist medical cost with rice pleaging proggrame already spend 130 Billions with not a single baht income from it.

All this are bad management and not only blame on politic unrest.

[farang000999]

Thailand has seen an expansion of credit that allows a wider demographic of Thais to build the economy. All you have to do is look around to see that things are booming. I know that we all want it to be falling apart but in your heart you know it is actually the opposite taking place. I know the anti-fiat money crowd is getting enraged reading this but:

money isn't real. the purpose is to facilitate trade. let's build as much as we can as fast as we can. that is what the Thais are doing and seem to be doing very well.

[Asiantravel]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

Is that all you've got?

Edited March 3, 2014 by Asiantravel

[Naam]

Airport taxes plan to inrease again from AoT with nearly 1 trillion BAht per year from tourist income which stand 25 % from GDP why haven't being taken good care with, at first plan to introduce 500 baht medicare insurance for every tourist for only 300- 500 Millions Baht spend on tourist medical cost with rice pleaging proggrame already spend 130 Billions with not a single baht income from it.

All this are bad management and not only blame on politic unrest.

i wonder who pulls these utterly nonsensical numbers out of thin air such as "tourism = 25% of GDP". even in a rather good year like 2012 tourism share never even reached 7.5%

implying that USD 26 billion (THB 825 billion) represent 25% of USD 365 billion (Thailands tourism sector and GDP year 2012) is nothing but ridiculous. a simple calculation like this can be done by heart and does not require a pocket calculator.

[SheungWan]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

Is that all you've got?

It appears to be a lot, lot more than the end of the world team has, consoling itself with endless re-runs of 2008 youtube videos and newspaper headlines. A rather lazy prism through which to understand Thailand today.