Is statistical probablity accurate in Thailand?

[wilcopops]

there "lies, damned lies and statistics"

either Mark Twain or Benjamin Disraeli...or neither, work out the odds.

the pint about stats is that they are numbers and some pople with limited imagination or anal hang-ups take refuge in numbers as they consider them to be a safe heaven, a thread of reality in an otherwise incomprehensible world.

however that is just a perception like any other truth. the key is the interpretation that is put on the stats - hence lies, damn lies etc.... sadly there are many who believe that just because something has a number attached to it it must be "the Truth"; sadly they haven't the critical ability to see further than that.

Edited June 26, 2014 by wilcopops

[thailiketoo]

"Sorry but Twain or Disraeli was in error. They did not know the meaning of the word Statistics. "

And you obviously don't know the meaning of the quote. It is making the point that anybody can 'prove' anything by offering selected statistics that meet their agenda, while not offering related statistics that don't.

Twain, an uneducated man, didn't know the definition of statistics or the maths behind statistical probability.

The quote should have read that people can be in error reporting or gathering data but the fundamental mathematics of statistical probability are always accurate. You missed my point and fell into the same trap that Twain did.

There is never anything wrong with statistics. It is the information going in or the interpretation of the results where the inaccuracy is.

When you take a statistics course you will learn how to compute numbers like the standard deviation that is statistics.

Ronald Fisher the founder of modern statistics wasn't born when Twain was in school. anyway.

Edited June 26, 2014 by thailiketoo

[JLCrab]

The birthday problem assumes that birthdays are evenly distributed throughout the year which doesn't make much sense in Thailand as there are (most likely) a disproportionate number of birthdays in January which is 9 months after SongKran.

[wprime]

How many Thais need to be in a room to have two with the same birthday?

Is it 18 or 23?

I remember this question from a book by Warren Buffet.

He didn't ask how many people are needed to have a certain chance of having two with the same birthday, he asked how many were needed. Only 2 are needed.

[FinanceGuy]

How many Thais need to be in a room to have two with the same birthday?

Is it 18 or 23?

I remember this question from a book by Warren Buffet.

A graph showing the computed probability of at least two people sharing a birthday amongst a certain number of people.

Thanks!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

[chrisinth]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Statistics tells us that a man can shower for 1 minute in cold water and 1 minute in hot water and on average he had 2 minutes of very nice shower.

Ah Mr Yang no statistical education eh? OK. No they don't. Now digest the attached photos and decide which you have said.

1 pint, two pints, 3 pints.

At least that's the way my darts went............................

[marko kok prong]

Jezz,must be a really slow day up there op.

[bigbamboo]

Statistically the odds of someone calling 'heads' at the toss of a coin is 50/50 yet it has been shown again and again that people actually call heads twice as often as they call tails.

Which, statistically, buggers the whole theory of probability up....... probably.

Edited June 26, 2014 by bigbamboo

[thailiketoo]

Statistically the odds of someone calling 'heads' at the toss of a coin is 50/50 yet it has been shown again and again that people actually call heads twice as often as they call tails.

Which, statistically, buggers the whole theory of probability up....... probably.

No I believe that is the definition of insanity. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Bet someone has told you that before right?

[bigbamboo]

Statistically the odds of someone calling 'heads' at the toss of a coin is 50/50 yet it has been shown again and again that people actually call heads twice as often as they call tails.

Which, statistically, buggers the whole theory of probability up....... probably.

No I believe that is the definition of insanity. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Bet someone has told you that before right?

Probably...... not.

Edited June 26, 2014 by bigbamboo

[wilcopops]

so do we have a working definition for "statistical probability"? - I think not so is there any reason to suppose that anyone has any idea of what they are talking about?

Edited June 27, 2014 by wilcopops

[wilcopops]

The birthday problem assumes that birthdays are evenly distributed throughout the year which doesn't make much sense in Thailand as there are (most likely) a disproportionate number of birthdays in January which is 9 months after SongKran.

...which is ALSO and assumption? or do you have the statistics? - however what has that for to do with statistical probability.

[thailiketoo]

so do we have a working definition for "statistical probability"? - I think not so is there any reason to suppose that anyone has any idea of what they are talking about?

From the OP.

Statistical Probability. How likely something is to happen. Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability. Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?

[Fookhaht]

Stats in Thailand make no allowance for chok dee.

Or amulets

[wilcopops]

so do we have a working definition for "statistical probability"? - I think not so is there any reason to suppose that anyone has any idea of what they are talking about?

From the OP.

Statistical Probability. How likely something is to happen. Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability. Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?

You're descibing probability. What is "statistical probability"?

[Soutpeel]

so do we have a working definition for "statistical probability"? - I think not so is there any reason to suppose that anyone has any idea of what they are talking about?

From the OP.

Statistical Probability. How likely something is to happen. Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability. Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?

You're descibing probability. What is "statistical probability"?

The probability that the poster is statistically wrong ?

[thailiketoo]

so do we have a working definition for "statistical probability"? - I think not so is there any reason to suppose that anyone has any idea of what they are talking about?

From the OP.

Statistical Probability. How likely something is to happen. Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability. Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?

You're descibing probability. What is "statistical probability"?

"Statistical Probabilities" is the 133rd episode of the syndicated American science fiction television series Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, the ninth episode of the sixth season.

[wilcopops]

So there is no such thing - end of.

[GuestHouse]

Since almost all foreigners in Thailand arrived by aircraft, they have placed their life in the hands of the aircraft design -aircraft of which the safety of each and every component having been determined by statistics.

[thailiketoo]

So there is no such thing - end of.

Sure there is. I defined it in the OP. If you don't like it don't post. Simple really.

[ATF]

I believe stereotyping is far more accurate than statistics where people are concerned.

[thailiketoo]

I believe stereotyping is far more accurate than statistics where people are concerned.

Absolute nonsense post.

Stereotyping

Stereotyping is when you judge a group of people who are different from you based on your own and/or others opinions and/or encounters.

sta·tis·tics

stəˈtistiks/

noun

noun: statistics

1. the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample.

[StreetCowboy]

I believe stereotyping is far more accurate than statistics where people are concerned.

Absolute nonsense post.

Stereotyping

Stereotyping is when you judge a group of people who are different from you based on your own and/or others opinions and/or encounters.

sta·tis·tics

stəˈtistiks/

noun

noun: statistics

1. the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample.

The fellow was just stating his beliefs.

You've expressed your faith in random stochastic processes.

No doubt some amongst us may believe in pre-ordained fate.

SC

[thailiketoo]

I believe stereotyping is far more accurate than statistics where people are concerned.

Absolute nonsense post.

Stereotyping

Stereotyping is when you judge a group of people who are different from you based on your own and/or others opinions and/or encounters.

sta·tis·tics

stəˈtistiks/

noun

noun: statistics

1. the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample.

The fellow was just stating his beliefs.

You've expressed your faith in random stochastic processes.

No doubt some amongst us may believe in pre-ordained fate.

SC

A person who believes in pre ordained fate would be engaged in non sense.

spoken or written words that have no meaning or make no sense.

"he was talking absolute nonsense"

synonyms: rubbish, gibberish, claptrap, balderdash, blarney; More

informalhogwash, baloney, rot, moonshine, garbage, jive, tripe, drivel, bilge, bull, guff, bunk, bosh, BS, eyewash, piffle, poppycock, phooey, hooey, malarkey, hokum, twaddle, gobbledygook, codswallop, flapdoodle, hot air;

datedbunkum, tommyrot;

vulgar slangbullshit, crap, crapola

"that's a lot of damn nonsense"

antonyms: (good) sense

• used to show strong disagreement.

  exclamation: nonsense

  "“Nonsense! No one can do that.”"
• denoting verse or other writing intended to be amusing by virtue of its absurd or whimsical language.

  modifier noun: nonsense

  "nonsense poetry"

2.

foolish or unacceptable behavior.

"put a stop to that nonsense, will you?"

synonyms: mischief, naughtiness, bad behavior, misbehavior, misconduct, misdemeanor;

pranks, tricks, clowning, buffoonery, funny business;

informaltomfoolery, monkey business, shenanigans, hanky-panky

[StreetCowboy]

I believe stereotyping is far more accurate than statistics where people are concerned.

Absolute nonsense post.

Stereotyping

Stereotyping is when you judge a group of people who are different from you based on your own and/or others opinions and/or encounters.

sta·tis·tics

stəˈtistiks/

noun

noun: statistics

1. the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample.

The fellow was just stating his beliefs.

You've expressed your faith in random stochastic processes.

No doubt some amongst us may believe in pre-ordained fate.

SC

A person who believes in pre ordained fate would be engaged in non sense.

spoken or written words that have no meaning or make no sense.

"he was talking absolute nonsense"

synonyms: rubbish, gibberish, claptrap, balderdash, blarney; More

informalhogwash, baloney, rot, moonshine, garbage, jive, tripe, drivel, bilge, bull, guff, bunk, bosh, BS, eyewash, piffle, poppycock, phooey, hooey, malarkey, hokum, twaddle, gobbledygook, codswallop, flapdoodle, hot air;

datedbunkum, tommyrot;

vulgar slangbullshit, crap, crapola

"that's a lot of damn nonsense"

antonyms: (good) sense

• used to show strong disagreement.

  exclamation: nonsense

  "“Nonsense! No one can do that.”"
• denoting verse or other writing intended to be amusing by virtue of its absurd or whimsical language.

  modifier noun: nonsense

  "nonsense poetry"

2.

foolish or unacceptable behavior.

"put a stop to that nonsense, will you?"

synonyms: mischief, naughtiness, bad behavior, misbehavior, misconduct, misdemeanor;

pranks, tricks, clowning, buffoonery, funny business;

informaltomfoolery, monkey business, shenanigans, hanky-panky

I like to ridicule papists. I learnt that from my peers at school. But if I do it on the open forum, I get labelled a bigot.

SC

[thailiketoo]

I like to ridicule papists. I learnt that from my peers at school. But if I do it on the open forum, I get labelled a bigot.

SC

Your mistake is calling them papists. That's like Henry VIII stuff, no wonder. Try religion in general.

And I think there are some who would draw a distinction between religion and superstition. I don't but some might.

Don't forget the question was "I believe stereotyping is far more accurate than statistics" which is absolute balderdash and a flame before you began to join the pedantic Thai Visa group.

I've nothing against the "pedantic's for a brighter forum future" brigade but some might wonder if it was on topic.

Edited June 29, 2014 by thailiketoo

[wilcopops]

So there is no such thing - end of.

Sure there is. I defined it in the OP. If you don't like it don't post. Simple really.

I'm pointing out that what you posted is about something that doesn't exist.

[thailiketoo]

So there is no such thing - end of.

Sure there is. I defined it in the OP. If you don't like it don't post. Simple really.

I'm pointing out that what you posted is about something that doesn't exist.

Didn't exist till I defined it. Now it exists in this thread with the definition in the OP. If you don't like it invent your own word and open your own thread. No one least of all me is forcing you to post here.

[ATF]

To clarify my statement people lie when surveyed.

For example most Irish men drink to excess but how many would admit to being an alcoholic when surveyed?

The list goes on.

[thailiketoo]

To clarify my statement people lie when surveyed.

For example most Irish men drink to excess but how many would admit to being an alcoholic when surveyed?

The list goes on.

So all statistics can't be trusted in your mind because people lie? Oh yea. Right. Stop the world. Stop the banks. Stop the IMF. Stop every economic transaction in the world today because......... wait for it......... People lie.

I know this is going to be news to you but people stopped counting things years ago. Now they take a sample and through a statistical formula arrive at the answer. Take unemployment. Do you think they count the people who don't work in America and Thailand? Nope. They take a survey of 60,000 people for the 300,000,000 living in America and much less in Thailand and estimate. Do you think the folks lie? 555. Back to school for you Statistics 101.

Edited June 29, 2014 by thailiketoo