ADB trims Thai GDP growth to 1.6 percent this year

[webfact]

ADB trims Thai GDP growth to 1.6 percent this year



BANGKOK: -- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has trimmed its growth forecast for Southeast Asia this year, citing factors such as political turmoil in Thailand earlier in the year and weaker commodity export prices in Indonesia.

ADB cuts GDP forecast for Thailand from 2.9 percent to 1.6 but raised forecast next year to 4.5 percent.

In its update to the 2014 outlook, ADB said on Thursday that Southeast Asia was now expected to grow 4.6 percent this year, down slightly from its forecast in July of 4.7 percent and 5.0percent forecast in April.

The ADB trimmed its 2014 growth forecasts for Indonesia,Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore compared withApril, but raised its growth forecast for Malaysia to 5.7 percent from 5.1 percent, citing a rebound in the country’s exports.

But the ADB said growth in Southeast Asia was likely to accelerate in 2015 to 5.3 percent, although that was down from its July and April forecasts for 5.4 percent growth.

“Next year, better performance in the major industrial economies and Thailand’s recovery from its slump will spur Southeast Asian growth to 5.3 percent,” it said.

The ADB kept its 2014 and 2015 growth forecasts for China unchanged, saying growth was likely to slip to 7.5 percent this year and 7.4 percent next year, compared with 7.7 percent in 2013.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/adb-trims-thai-gdp-growth-1-6-percent-year/


-- Thai PBS 2014-09-25

[Costas2008]

Well comparing the GDP of 0.2% in the Eurozone for the second quarter of 2014, this is a good increase.

[rickirs]

“ADB cuts GDP forecast for Thailand from 2.9 percent to 1.6”

Who had the best prediction?

1) “The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce Center for Economic and Business Forecasting has lowered its projection for Thailand’s economic growth this year to between 1.5 and 2 per cent from 2 – 2.5 per cent.”

2) “Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn said that growth rate for this year might register 1.5 percent but there was a possibility that the rate would increase to 2 percent if the economy was stimulated with the implementation of populist projects for the rest of the year.”

3) “The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) remains confident that the Thai economy will grow 4.2 percent and expand by 2 percent for the remainder of this year.”

I4) “In his weekly Friday night TV program “Return Happiness to the People”, Gen Prayuth vowed to strive for a GDP growth of 2% or higher against the central bank’s target of 1.5%.”

And who had the greatest control over the economy for 2014?

[rubl]

“ADB cuts GDP forecast for Thailand from 2.9 percent to 1.6”

Who had the best prediction?

1) “The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce Center for Economic and Business Forecasting has lowered its projection for Thailand’s economic growth this year to between 1.5 and 2 per cent from 2 – 2.5 per cent.”

2) “Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn said that growth rate for this year might register 1.5 percent but there was a possibility that the rate would increase to 2 percent if the economy was stimulated with the implementation of populist projects for the rest of the year.”

3) “The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) remains confident that the Thai economy will grow 4.2 percent and expand by 2 percent for the remainder of this year.”

I4) “In his weekly Friday night TV program “Return Happiness to the People”, Gen Prayuth vowed to strive for a GDP growth of 2% or higher against the central bank’s target of 1.5%.”

And who had the greatest control over the economy for 2014?

You're right, absolutely right.

After seven months of chaos, and months of preparing for a blanket amnesty before, Gen Prayuth should have been able to create miracles since the coup on the 23rd of May this year. Even granting him a few weeks to cleanup, all should be about right by now. So how many days in control if we start counting from the 1st of July ?

Oh, by the way, does 2014 really have only 365 days ?

[rickirs]

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Well comparing the GDP of 0.2% in the Eurozone for the second quarter of 2014, this is a good increase.

No sir - apples & oranges.

The EU population is about 760 times that of Thailand and has a GDP of almost 4,800 times that of Thailand. A 0.2% growth in EU's GDP amounts to almost equal to Thailand's ENTIRE GDP.

[rubl]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Well comparing the GDP of 0.2% in the Eurozone for the second quarter of 2014, this is a good increase.

No sir - apples & oranges.

The EU population is about 760 times that of Thailand and has a GDP of almost 4,800 times that of Thailand. A 0.2% growth in EU's GDP amounts to almost equal to Thailand's ENTIRE GDP.

Oh yeah, apples and oranges.

You can indicated the 0.2% of the E.C GDP is about the complete Thai GDP.

Still 0.2% growth is 0.2% growth whether it is growth from 1,000 Baht, or 1,000,000,000,000 Baht.

[JOC]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Well comparing the GDP of 0.2% in the Eurozone for the second quarter of 2014, this is a good increase.

No sir - apples & oranges.

The EU population is about 760 times that of Thailand and has a GDP of almost 4,800 times that of Thailand. A 0.2% growth in EU's GDP amounts to almost equal to Thailand's ENTIRE GDP.

No sir!!

The EU population is about 7.6 times that of Thailand!!

So try to do your numbers again and report back!

[metisdead]

A post of off topic baiting/deflection nature has been removed.

[Yme]

BoT says 1.5 to 2.0 per cent

ADB 1.6 per cent

Thailand H1 2014 was -0.1 per cent with contractions across the board. (See: http://www.establishmentpost.com/thailand-2014-q2-h1-gdp-southeast-asias-second-largest-economy-on-life-support/ ))

Next year about 6,000 Thai products will be removed from the EU Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP).

In the case of automobiles tariffs will increase on average from 6.5 per cent to 10 per cent so that's going to kick exports in Q4 ( See: seminar http://www.establishmentpost.com/event/the-reform-of-the-eu-generalised-scheme-of-preferences-thailand/ )

Thailand will be lucky if it ends up being 1.0 per cent in 2014 and 3.5 per cent next year IMO

[quandow]

Better job than a weather forecaster, pulling numbers out of your ass imagination.