Is the Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong for real?

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
Is the Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong for real?
Thanong Khanthong

BANGKOK: -- Time magazine and other international news media have been quick to dub the mass demonstration for universal suffrage in Hong Kong as a democracy revolution.

"Defiance" would be a more appropriate word for it. There are virtually no elements of revolution in this protest, which is simply airing frustrations or demanding participatory democracy as a political ideal. A revolution only occurs when protesters, with support from the judiciary and/or the security forces, can bring down the government and cause radical political change. So the Hong Kong mass protest looks more like an exercise in daydreaming.

The series of mass protests in Thailand that began in 2005 never succeeded in bringing down a sitting government. The yellow-shirt street protest, led by Sondhi Limthongkul and lasting 11 months, failed to unseat incumbent prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Instead, a military coup in September 2006 finished off the Thaksin government.

Sondhi returned to the streets to lead the yellow shirts against the Samak and the Somchai administrations, each of which was stripped off power by a court ruling in 2010. Suthep Thaugsuban led a mass demonstration against the government of Yingluck Shinawatra that attracted millions of followers and raised huge funds in the process. Still, after six months of rallying, it was military that stepped in to remove the government. The lesson is that street demonstrations alone can't unseat a government.

In the same way, the Hong Kong protesters won't be able to achieve their demand that CY Leung, their Beijing-appointed chief executive, resign. Leung has received full support from Beijing over the Hong Kong clampdown. We all know that China will never give in to the demands of the protesters. Beijing and the Hong Kong administration are now playing softball with the mainly-student demonstrators, hoping that their rally will fizzle out once reality kicks in with daily school or college life. Merchants and business owners will have to get back to business soon. Meanwhile the protesters lack the support from elements among the police, government or military that is essential to keeping the rally alive.

The demand for universal suffrage has little precedent and is unrealistic. During the 99 years up to 1997 when Hong Kong was a British colony, there was never a democratic vote for the chief executive. Instead, the UK dispatched its own representative as governor. Now the Hong Kong protesters want full democracy and have sent out the message that they do not want Beijing to interfere in their political affairs. Neither is this a realistic proposition, since the Beijing government retained full sovereignty over Hong Kong as a Special Administrative Region in 1997 under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which permits Hong Kong to stay relatively free and autonomous for 50 years after the handover. But that does not mean that Hong Kong can become independent from China or from Beijing's rule. The Scots were recently given a chance to break away from the United Kingdom to become an independent country, but chose to remain part of the union. Hong Kongers don't have that option, and Beijing will not hesitate to exercise its control over it Special Administrative Region.

Now that CY Leung has declined to step down as demanded by the protesters, we must wait to see whether they beef up the rally by storming government buildings. This tactic would be bound to fail since protesters would be committing an illegal act punishable by the courts. If the protesters resort to violence, then we'll see a shift in Beijing's mood and methods, with no hesitation when it comes to using force to quash the demonstration. Chances of a win for the protesters are almost nil.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Is-the-Umbrella-Revolution-in-Hong-Kong-for-real-30244653.html


-- The Nation 2014-10-03

[Nickymaster]

The demand for universal suffrage has little precedent and is unrealistic. During the 99 years up to 1997 when Hong Kong was a British colony, there was never a democratic vote for the chief executive. Instead, the UK dispatched its own representative as governor. Now the Hong Kong protesters want full democracy and have sent out the message that they do not want Beijing to interfere in their political affairs. Neither is this a realistic proposition, since the Beijing government retained full sovereignty over Hong Kong as a Special Administrative Region in 1997 under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which permits Hong Kong to stay relatively free and autonomous for 50 years after the handover. But that does not mean that Hong Kong can become independent from China or from Beijing's rule.

Very important point.

[chotthee]

Hong Kong just copy Bangkok.

Thai junta should collect copy right fee.

[airconsult]

The demand for universal suffrage has little precedent and is unrealistic. During the 99 years up to 1997 when Hong Kong was a British colony, there was never a democratic vote for the chief executive. Instead, the UK dispatched its own representative as governor. Now the Hong Kong protesters want full democracy and have sent out the message that they do not want Beijing to interfere in their political affairs. Neither is this a realistic proposition, since the Beijing government retained full sovereignty over Hong Kong as a Special Administrative Region in 1997 under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which permits Hong Kong to stay relatively free and autonomous for 50 years after the handover. But that does not mean that Hong Kong can become independent from China or from Beijing's rule.

Very important point.

Perhaps, but the 1994 Electoral reform was probably fairer than the current system - that's why the PRC dismantled it in 1997.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Hong_Kong_electoral_reform#Proposal

[Ulysses G.]

"The series of mass protests in Thailand that began in 2005 never succeeded in bringing down a sitting government."

Half the people in Thailand opposed getting rid of that government. Is the same thing true of the people of Hong Kong? I would guess that most them rather not be ruled by a communist government,

[LawrenceChee]

Very valid points and while I always enjoy working in Hong Kong and have lots of friends there ...we have always have a healthy debate on this and the reality on the level headed is this is not going anywhere and HK is part of China.

There may be debatable points on what they don't like about certain rules or behavior of the PRC in HK...however at the core of it we are all Chinese.

[airconsult]

Very valid points and while I always enjoy working in Hong Kong and have lots of friends there ...we have always have a healthy debate on this and the reality on the level headed is this is not going anywhere and HK is part of China.

There may be debatable points on what they don't like about certain rules or behavior of the PRC in HK...however at the core of it we are all Chinese.

Hmm - I don't think this is anything about being part of China - this is about universal suffrage - which was part of the agreement in 1997 to commence in 2017.

I'm not sure somebody else picking 2 or 3 people they like - then letting you vote on them - is really what that means.