Baht to go up or down against gbp

[dirtycash]

Have around 3.3m in kasikorn. I want the baht to drop from 52 ...better for me if it does so i can start withdrawing this money out in uk. Anyone know what is likely to happen in coming months with thai baht rate ?

[Anthony5]

Can't give a correct answer since the little boy dropped my crystal ball, but I suggest you write your bank with the question if they can comply with your request.

[dirtycash]

Good answer anthony what are you even doing on this thread ?

[BritManToo]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

[Anthony5]

Good answer anthony what are you even doing on this thread ?

Giving silly answers to silly questions.

[MrWorldwide]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

Right, cause that's where the baht has been headed since the coup in May, right ? Er, no - it hasnt.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=THB&to=GBP&view=1Y

If the General had done anything to interfere with agricultural and manufacturing exports, you might have a point. If foreign investors had abandoned the country, you might have a point. None of the madness of the last ten years in this country has seriously threatened the rise and rise of the Thai baht against most of our home currencies and nothing illustrates that more graphically than the xe.com 10Y charts:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=THB&view=10Y

In real terms, every currency listed there has gone backwards against the baht. We can blame it on the GFC or we can acknowledge that - for all the corruption and dodgy business practices - big corporations want the combination of infrastructure and cheap labor Thailand has to offer. The figure that really matters to the Thai economy is this one:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=THB&view=10Y

Thailand's top 5 trading partners are China, Japan and the US - China has also been the number one tourism market based on arrivals (at least prior to 2014), but tourism is less than 10% of GDP even when flow-on is factored in. Computers, rubber, commercial vehicles - these are the things that keep the baht strong. I dont know where the UK figures in any of the above but all the dire predictions of economic collapse in Thailand on this forum have - as of early December 2014 - come to nought. If I had to make a call, I see the pound going in the same direction as the Aussie dollar - it's up to the OP whether he can see the above charts abruptly turning against the baht. Ultimately, its all crystal balling and such efforts are ultimately doomed, but at least I've given the OP some lovely graphs to mull over. Good luck.

[BritManToo]

This military Junta is different to every other military junta in the history of mankind?

I think not, they are just getting a slow start.

The 'junta express currency elevator to hell' is just getting going.

Edited December 4, 2014 by BritManToo

[Naam]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

if you can't see that this is not the case you need glasses and check what the Baht has done during the military coup that started sept 2006, Baht gained up to 34% vs. GBP during that period!

[BritManToo]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

if you can't see that this is not the case you need glasses and check what the Baht has done during the military coup that started sept 2006, Baht gained up to 34% vs. GBP during that period!

THB GBP coup.jpg

Now do the same chart starting in 1944.

[Naam]

This military Junta is different to every other military junta in the history of mankind?

I think not, they are just getting a slow start.

The 'junta express currency elevator to hell' is just getting going.

Thai Baht gained 7% vs. GBP since the coup may 2014.

[Naam]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

if you can't see that this is not the case you need glasses and check what the Baht has done during the military coup that started sept 2006, Baht gained up to 34% vs. GBP during that period!

THB GBP coup.jpg

Now do the same chart starting in 1944.

why not 1844?

[Pib]

Probably best to ask Dr. Who since he does time travel.

[BritManToo]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

if you can't see that this is not the case you need glasses and check what the Baht has done during the military coup that started sept 2006, Baht gained up to 34% vs. GBP during that period!

THB GBP coup.jpg

Now do the same chart starting in 1944.

why not 1844?

It's been the same regime (broadly speaking) in charge since the Japanese left.

[Naam]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

if you can't see that this is not the case you need glasses and check what the Baht has done during the military coup that started sept 2006, Baht gained up to 34% vs. GBP during that period!

THB GBP coup.jpg

Now do the same chart starting in 1944.

It's been the same regime (broadly speaking) in charge since the Japanese left.

what's the connection between the "same" regime and your wrong assumptions?

[beau thai]

Some 'experts' believe that the low price of oil will force some opec members to sell US treasuries instead of buying - a double whammy that will drive US treasuries down, and interest rates in the US (and UK) up. Marginally maybe initially

Whether or not that happens matters less than the perception that it MAY happen, which will cause the USD and GBP to harden against other currencies.

Many factors at work, including the impossibility of forecasting oil/gold prices, despite what some snake oil sellers will claim.

My gut feel is that the Baht will weaken slowly against the gbp - but if it doesnt it wont be the first (or last ) time I have been wrong about economic forecasts.

As one economist famously said when asked a question like this 'I can forecast anything except the future'

[MrWorldwide]

This military Junta is different to every other military junta in the history of mankind?

I think not, they are just getting a slow start.

The 'junta express currency elevator to hell' is just getting going.

Because its cyclical in Thailand and the constitution actually has provision for the military to seize power with the permission of a certain individual. Its my understanding that said permission was granted in this instance.

This isnt the South American model where the new guy feels duty bound to have all of the old guard locked up or executed, although he did manage to exile quite a few. If this was south America, how many retirees do you think would have stayed when the coup was announced ? On that note, do you actually live here in Thailand ?

[meatboy]

the op.must be new to thailand to ask such a silly question,unless he wants to tell us he has 3.3million baht in the bank.

if he's here for the next 20yrs.he will definately get an ulcer.

he wants to hope he has proof of how he came to it.

[Flanno]

I asked a bargirl last night and she said Baht was in trouble and you should be converting it to Roubles.

[scubascuba3]

Baht has strengthened 1% in the last month to around 51.3 yesterday. I can't see it changing too much over the next few months

[Digitalnomade]

I think bahts will go down. it will go back to 50 bahts =1 euro.

[wernerkl]

I lost my crystal ball too, so I am trying to answer from the political science point of view: What wil the USD do? This will affect the currency of any colonial ally the most. What will the Euro do, pretty low at the moment and how will the islanders react on continental policies. Affects again. What about the Rubel, Yen, Rupee ????? And the THB is dropping already anyway vs. VND and so on. I just realize only my crystal ball can answer your question. F..k.

Good answer anthony what are you even doing on this thread ?

Giving silly answers to silly questions.

[masuk]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

Right, cause that's where the baht has been headed since the coup in May, right ? Er, no - it hasnt.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=THB&to=GBP&view=1Y

If the General had done anything to interfere with agricultural and manufacturing exports, you might have a point. If foreign investors had abandoned the country, you might have a point. None of the madness of the last ten years in this country has seriously threatened the rise and rise of the Thai baht against most of our home currencies and nothing illustrates that more graphically than the xe.com 10Y charts:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=THB&view=10Y

In real terms, every currency listed there has gone backwards against the baht. We can blame it on the GFC or we can acknowledge that - for all the corruption and dodgy business practices - big corporations want the combination of infrastructure and cheap labor Thailand has to offer. The figure that really matters to the Thai economy is this one:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=THB&view=10Y

Thailand's top 5 trading partners are China, Japan and the US - China has also been the number one tourism market based on arrivals (at least prior to 2014), but tourism is less than 10% of GDP even when flow-on is factored in. Computers, rubber, commercial vehicles - these are the things that keep the baht strong. I dont know where the UK figures in any of the above but all the dire predictions of economic collapse in Thailand on this forum have - as of early December 2014 - come to nought. If I had to make a call, I see the pound going in the same direction as the Aussie dollar - it's up to the OP whether he can see the above charts abruptly turning against the baht. Ultimately, its all crystal balling and such efforts are ultimately doomed, but at least I've given the OP some lovely graphs to mull over. Good luck.

The OZ $ has gone down about 12% in the past year. I'm amazed the Thai baht has held its own, but good luck to them, but not so good for us pensioners.

[jim cortesos]

The future is now...Food street vendor does sales transaction via smart phone with 'Bit Coins'

[Suradit69]

Can't see the Baht doing better with a Militaryt Junta in charge.

Usually their currencies are on a one way trip to hell.

Have you followed the exchange rate this year or, like many Thai Visa experts, are you just blowing smoke based on your sense of how you think the world should behave if you were in charge?

That's the pound on a downward ski slope against the baht.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Suradit69

[i claudius]

I have commented on these threads before and i am always ,always ,right 50% of the time ,it will either go up or down ,check out my previous replys to see.

[rickirs]

(I am not an expert and make no claims of accuracy with my following remarks)

You have TWO VARIABLES when predicting currency futures: the Thai economy and the UK or EU economy.

When you compare currencies you are comparing the macro economics of two nations. In the case of comparing Thailand to UK or the EU, I believe that there is little direct interdependence between the two economies, unlike comparing the UK to the EU where there would be more of an economic cause & effect situation between the two entities. Thus, the two variables between Thailand and the UK or EU are INDEPENDENT VARIABLES. For example, if the Thai economy stagnanted (bad) but the UK economy suffered deflation (bad), the baht might still increase in value against the pound. So one must predict the economies of both countries in predictin currency performance.

Economic predictions themselves involve a multitude of potential indicators, which might be interdependent or independent! You'll have to decide which are most important. You can go to a number of web sites to test various indicators to project some predictions. Also keep in mind there are factors affecting a country's economy for which a country may have little or no control over such as economic sanctions, war, natural disasters, union strikes, government shutdown, etc. that can affect currency exchange rates.

I suggest http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-growth where you can examine over 20 indicators to compare Thailand to the UK or EU.

Through 2015 Q1 I believe the baht will lose significant value against the UK providing the UK economy doesn't deteriorate and hold steady against the EU economy. After 2015 Q1 we will see whether the Junta's economic stimulus will trigger significant economic recovery to pre-September 2013 levels. But I believe it's already too late for the whole of 2015 as the Junta will to continue to follow a very conservative approach to an econmic bailout policy. It will play a more public relations strategy than make significant economic decisions to order to maintain its power which is not accountable to its constituency. But whether the baht will lose value against UK or EU for 2015 Q2-4 will also depend on the stability of the UK or EU economies.

Good luck!

[Doc46]

Good answer anthony what are you even doing on this thread ?

If you can't take some Flak,, <W<>T<>F> are you putting up an stupid question like that????

If we knew the answer to your stupid question we all would be Millionaires.Why are you Bullshitting about the 3.3 Mill in the bank,we don't care about that.

[Estrada]

I asked a bargirl last night and she said Baht was in trouble and you should be converting it to Roubles.

She was charging her clients in Roubles at B90/1Rouble earlier this year and now they only fetch B54, no doubt she wants you to buy from her at B90

[Estrada]

Exchange rates futures predict B32/$1 B53/GBP1 more or less flat at least until end 2016.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Estrada

[Pinot]

Every prediction is wrong accept the right one, just as a broken clock is right a couple of times a day.

All the issues affecting the currency are already figured in. Don't waste your time speculating. Launches into the Doris Day song..."Que sera sera, what ever will be will be."

http://youtu.be/azxoVRTwlNg