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AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Indonesia to Singapore missing


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Posted

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Saying plane is on the bottom of the sea. Hope they have good info to support after what they did to the families of MH370.


I can't find that on google searching Flight QZ8501

CNN said it came from a Jakarta press release.

From Malaysia's The Star

JAKARTA: The Indonesia AirAsia plane which went missing with 162 people on board en route for Singapore is likely at the bottom of the sea, Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Agency chief said Monday.

“Based on the coordinates given to us and evaluation that the estimated crash position is in the sea, the hypothesis is the plane is at the bottom of the sea,” Bambang Soelistyo told a press conference.

“That’s the preliminary suspicion and it can develop based on the evaluation of the result of our search,” he said.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/12/29/AirAsia-plane/?

  • Like 1
Posted

our hope and best wishes go out to the people on board, but how can an aircraft go missing on such a short flight they must know where it was when it lost contact, it is so sad

Posted

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

Saying plane is on the bottom of the sea. Hope they have good info to support after what they did to the families of MH370.

I can't find that on google searching Flight QZ8501

CNN said it came from a Jakarta press release.

From Malaysia's The Star

JAKARTA: The Indonesia AirAsia plane which went missing with 162 people on board en route for Singapore is likely at the bottom of the sea, Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Agency chief said Monday.

“Based on the coordinates given to us and evaluation that the estimated crash position is in the sea, the hypothesis is the plane is at the bottom of the sea,” Bambang Soelistyo told a press conference.

“That’s the preliminary suspicion and it can develop based on the evaluation of the result of our search,” he said.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/12/29/AirAsia-plane/?

.

Deja vu, all over again.

Posted

The FAA issued Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2014-25-51 on 10 December 2014 which may be a contributory factor in this tragedy. It applies to Airbus A318, A319, A320 and A321 models and concerns, quote: "A blockage of two Angle of Attack probes during climb". It goes on to warn that, quote: "This condition, if not corrected, could result in loss of control of the aeroplane".

Edit: corrected erroneously quoted "A310" to "A319".

What is the experts' views of the above?

We know that the plane was flying at 32,000 feet, the pilot asked for and received permission to climb to 38,000 feet, and if I remember correctly I read that it was last seen at 36,000 feet.

Some recent posts have made reference to the angle of attack. What might cause angle of attack probes to get blocked, and what effect would this have on the plane?

Posted

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

CNN said it came from a Jakarta press release.

From Malaysia's The Star

JAKARTA: The Indonesia AirAsia plane which went missing with 162 people on board en route for Singapore is likely at the bottom of the sea, Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Agency chief said Monday.

“Based on the coordinates given to us and evaluation that the estimated crash position is in the sea, the hypothesis is the plane is at the bottom of the sea,” Bambang Soelistyo told a press conference.

“That’s the preliminary suspicion and it can develop based on the evaluation of the result of our search,” he said.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/12/29/AirAsia-plane/?

.

Deja vu, all over again.

Yes. The word "likely" looms large.

Posted

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

CNN said it came from a Jakarta press release.

From Malaysia's The Star

JAKARTA: The Indonesia AirAsia plane which went missing with 162 people on board en route for Singapore is likely at the bottom of the sea, Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Agency chief said Monday.

“Based on the coordinates given to us and evaluation that the estimated crash position is in the sea, the hypothesis is the plane is at the bottom of the sea,” Bambang Soelistyo told a press conference.

“That’s the preliminary suspicion and it can develop based on the evaluation of the result of our search,” he said.

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/12/29/AirAsia-plane/?

.

Deja vu, all over again.

Yes. The word "likely" looms large.

Probably, but it would have impacted the surface at speed, & broken up. There should be quite a bit of debris & bods to look for - sooner or later.

Posted

The FAA issued Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2014-25-51 on 10 December 2014 which may be a contributory factor in this tragedy. It applies to Airbus A318, A319, A320 and A321 models and concerns, quote: "A blockage of two Angle of Attack probes during climb". It goes on to warn that, quote: "This condition, if not corrected, could result in loss of control of the aeroplane".

Edit: corrected erroneously quoted "A310" to "A319".

What is the experts' views of the above?

We know that the plane was flying at 32,000 feet, the pilot asked for and received permission to climb to 38,000 feet, and if I remember correctly I read that it was last seen at 36,000 feet.

Some recent posts have made reference to the angle of attack. What might cause angle of attack probes to get blocked, and what effect would this have on the plane?

The last I read the ascent was denied. He was reported to be flying slower than normal maintaining altitude. His transponder reports speed and altitude to Center.

I've heard nothing about angle of attack but speculation about pitot tubes which operate a mechanical device from air pressure and tell the pilot his speed. There was talk about a different plane having those ice up and stop giving correct speed.

He asked for a different heading and 1 minute later they lost contact. They didn't report that for about 50 minutes which could be 500 miles or 800 kms if he didn't crash.

My take on that is that's far enough that they have no idea where the plane is.

Those of us with tinfoil hats are wondering how they lost contact with his transponder and why if he crashed they don't hear the Emergency Locater Beacon (ELT) in such shallow water. The ELT has good range and other planes in the vicinity could hear it. It goes off automatically in a crash including hitting the water.

  • Like 2
Posted

I believe the radar can see more like 100 miles.

Normal radar yes, doppler radar no.

I want to learn something here. What kind of radar do airliners have, exactly? Please?

Posted

The FAA issued Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2014-25-51 on 10 December 2014 which may be a contributory factor in this tragedy. It applies to Airbus A318, A319, A320 and A321 models and concerns, quote: "A blockage of two Angle of Attack probes during climb". It goes on to warn that, quote: "This condition, if not corrected, could result in loss of control of the aeroplane".

Edit: corrected erroneously quoted "A310" to "A319".

What is the experts' views of the above?

We know that the plane was flying at 32,000 feet, the pilot asked for and received permission to climb to 38,000 feet, and if I remember correctly I read that it was last seen at 36,000 feet.

Some recent posts have made reference to the angle of attack. What might cause angle of attack probes to get blocked, and what effect would this have on the plane?

It's a bit difficult to explain in simplicity, but effectively your angle of attack is the angle you need to point the craft at to maintain height at your current speed vs your balance (weight mass). It concerns the aerodynamic lift equation... which is easily googled I would have thought. The 'probes' [sensors] should never get blocked.. that is an assumed already, and Airbus made modifications which are 'said' to have put this conundrum to an end.

I don't recall the Pilot ever being given permission to climb, in all my monitoring of this situation.

What would have an effect upon the craft is the knots he was travelling at, 354 or something, my memory suggests. He was pretty laden with fuel too!

To maintain his height, or ascend using his angle of attack, would relate to his speed as a result, in order to maintain balance (mass shift controlled vertically)

However, a lot of angle of attack to ascend, maintaining speed and etc, depends upon air density you are within. The density can fluctuate enormously with altitude, and additionally more ad hoc in a storm.. especially an electrical storm. If speed readings are wrong, altitude is wrongly assumed etc. then you can climb or drop at a seconds notice.

I'll find a website, and see if explains a bit more clearly to you..

Posted

AirAsia plane is at the bottom of the sea: search chief.

Missing AirAsia flight QZ8501 has most likely crashed into the ocean, Indonesia's search chief has said.

"(Because) the coordinate that was given to us and the evolution from the calculation point of the flight track is at sea, our early conjecture is that the plane is in the bottom of the sea," Marsdya Tni Hendry Bambang said minutes ago.

http://www.9news.com.au/world/2014/12/29/14/08/qz8501-search-chief-suggests-plane-at-bottom-of-sea


  • Like 1
Posted

I believe the radar can see more like 100 miles.

Normal radar yes, doppler radar no.

I want to learn something here. What kind of radar do airliners have, exactly? Please?

This wiki link has more to do with ground based weather radar but if you scroll down the page

they do have decent nfo on airborne weather radar...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_radar

A link to the Airbus page on use of weather radar...

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/safety_library_items/AirbusSafetyLib_-FLT_OPS-ADV_WX-SEQ07.pdf

A link to Honeywell Corp airborne weather radar...

http://aerospace.honeywell.com/products/safety-systems/weather-radar

Heaps more nfo if you Google....Airborne Weather Radar Systems

Hope this helps you.

  • Like 1
Posted

Hopefully the weather at the alleged crash site has improved sufficiently to allow them to conduct their search efficiently - I just dont believe there could be two MH370-style 'complete disappearance' events in the same 12 month period, but I'm not one of the poor sods peering through binoculars for hours on end.

Posted

AirAsia plane is at the bottom of the sea: search chief.

Missing AirAsia flight QZ8501 has most likely crashed into the ocean, Indonesia's search chief has said.

"(Because) the coordinate that was given to us and the evolution from the calculation point of the flight track is at sea, our early conjecture is that the plane is in the bottom of the sea," Marsdya Tni Hendry Bambang said minutes ago.

http://www.9news.com.au/world/2014/12/29/14/08/qz8501-search-chief-suggests-plane-at-bottom-of-sea

Again with the words "most likely." They don't know.

  • Like 2
Posted (edited)

Asking for a different altitude and asking for "an unusual route" are two different things. Maybe something is lost in the translation.

Those things do have a history of pitot tube icing. You'd think they would have fixed that with better heat to them.

I tend to agree with it being lost in translation, and it amazes me that native English speakers seem to take translations literally with no concept or allowance for word usage in different languages. This applies particularly to us here in Thailand when it comes to strict translations of Thai to English which often contain strange words - and most of us tend to ignore the intent and focus on a specific word.

I'm no expert in Indonesian, but it would appear from a quick google translation that "unusual" in English can be easily construed in Indonesian as not normal/not regular/different than usual, as opposed to the way we English can construe the word as being something remarkably out of the ordinary or even slightly weird.

The essential difference between a relatively literal "translation" and thoughtful and skilled "interpretation", a distinction that I and others make. Interpretation requires focusing on the gist of the communications and forming it in best terms in the target language in a way that the essence and nuances of the communication are best conveyed. Hopefully.

Edited by MaxYakov
  • Like 1
Posted

I believe the radar can see more like 100 miles.

Normal radar yes, doppler radar no.

I want to learn something here. What kind of radar do airliners have, exactly? Please?

This wiki link has more to do with ground based weather radar but if you scroll down the page

they do have decent nfo on airborne weather radar...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_radar

A link to the Airbus page on use of weather radar...

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/safety_library_items/AirbusSafetyLib_-FLT_OPS-ADV_WX-SEQ07.pdf

A link to Honeywell Corp airborne weather radar...

http://aerospace.honeywell.com/products/safety-systems/weather-radar

Heaps more nfo if you Google....Airborne Weather Radar Systems

Hope this helps you.

That's too long to scour through. On pages 9 and 11 of the Airbus site it tells how to measure the height of a storm at a distance of 40 NM (46 miles) but I don't see how it's not Doppler and I don't see your short range.

I'm sticking with my 100 miles until you show me the max range and that it's not Doppler.

Posted

Hopefully the weather at the alleged crash site has improved sufficiently to allow them to conduct their search efficiently - I just dont believe there could be two MH370-style 'complete disappearance' events in the same 12 month period, but I'm not one of the poor sods peering through binoculars for hours on end.

It was reported much earlier that today is much less hindered than yesterday, and they can see a clear 2km. (I would expect a lot more than that, but maybe 2km is their set viewing for scouring the areas set to search).

I also agree.... 2 complete disappearances is very highly unlikely. I would expect some vision of wreckage/debris today. However, that depends upon who is running the show! Unfortunately.

I have not offered RIP to all, as there are chances of some survivors. However, I AM now offering RIP to the majority, as no further communication has been made with the pilot or his team.

It is devastating that this may possibly repeat previous flights lost, where all have lost - but I still hold out hope for some survivors.. if they locate some form of debris today, and soon!!

Posted (edited)

I believe the radar can see more like 100 miles.

Normal radar yes, doppler radar no.

I want to learn something here. What kind of radar do airliners have, exactly? Please?

Airborne weather radar, it is a combination of weather and doppler radar. While 180 nautical miles is the maximum that a commonly used radar can cover, 30-50 nm is what is normally tuned to. The doppler radar is most effective in detecting micro bursts, which normal weather radar cannot detect. Also the longer the range selected, the less precise the readings are. Apparently doppler radar is accurate to 6 nm, and may present false data at longer range.

There are some better and more accurate airborne radars out there, which have double the range, but few airlines choose them due to cost.

Last bit - the weather radar has a "flaw" which is that it can only see the up to certain level of stormy activity, while anything beyond that limit is invisible to it. In other words - the worst part of the storm is seen as calm blue skies on the weather radar.

Not from my space between the ears, I've compiled this from several other sources. I do not judge on how accurate they are.

What kind of radar is there other than Doppler and what exactly is it called? I don't mean different kinds of antennae for Doppler radar, I mean a whole different type of radar.

This is on topic because the issue is "could the pilot not see a storm from more than six miles or ten seconds." I HAVE seen a major thunderstorm on aircraft radar at a distance closer to 100 miles.

I would like to know how far away and then figure how much time the pilot had. What good is radar if it's tuned for storms and you get only 10 seconds to react before you're in the center of it?

Edited by NeverSure
  • Like 1
Posted

There is speculation yes, by some, and there are some who work in the industry and compile information for/through other sources.

Of course, there are some posters who throw wild ideas and accusations - that is called an open thread - expect it!

Anybody can see between the lines of what is destructive criticism, lacking content, and what is positive information and contains substance, and which does not.

  • Like 2
Posted

Just a couple of points for those who seem convinced that this is another MH370-style disappearance:

- from my understanding, the pilot in this case didnt try to alter his heading - and he asked permission to alter the plane's altitude. The captain of MH370 simply changed course without warning, or at least that seems to be what they believe happened.

- while its speculative until they actually find the wreckage, they do seem to have a much better fix on the current location of the airframe than they did with MH370 - many of us will recall the early claims that it was somewhere in the South China Sea while most now believe it crashed thousands of kilometres from that part of the world.

- the 'hangar in Pakistan' theory seems to assume that an unnamed terrorist organisation will use MH370 in a future 9-11 style attack - I dont think Tom Clancy could have written a more fanciful scenario, but I guess many would have said the same in 2000 if you told them terrorists would target the Pentagon with a commercial aircraft.

While we're speculating, my money is on them finding wreckage within 48 hours.

  • Like 1
Posted

I want to learn something here. What kind of radar do airliners have, exactly? Please?

Airborne weather radar, it is a combination of weather and doppler radar. While 180 nautical miles is the maximum that a commonly used radar can cover, 30-50 nm is what is normally tuned to. The doppler radar is most effective in detecting micro bursts, which normal weather radar cannot detect. Also the longer the range selected, the less precise the readings are. Apparently doppler radar is accurate to 6 nm, and may present false data at longer range.

There are some better and more accurate airborne radars out there, which have double the range, but few airlines choose them due to cost.

Last bit - the weather radar has a "flaw" which is that it can only see the up to certain level of stormy activity, while anything beyond that limit is invisible to it. In other words - the worst part of the storm is seen as calm blue skies on the weather radar.

Not from my space between the ears, I've compiled this from several other sources. I do not judge on how accurate they are.

What kind of radar is there other than Doppler and what exactly is it called? I don't mean different kinds of antennae for Doppler radar, I mean a whole different type of radar.

This is on topic because the issue is "could the pilot not see a storm from more than six miles or ten seconds." I HAVE seen a major thunderstorm on aircraft radar at a distance closer to 100 miles.

I would like to know how far away and then figure how much time the pilot had. What good is radar if it's tuned for storms and you get only 10 seconds to react before you're in the center of it?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-storm-chaser-radar-met-0829-20140828-story.html#page=1

This should be mandatory! It has been recently employed by Boeing and Airbus - retrospectively, I guess not. :(

Posted

I reckon we all need to stop speculation of what happened to QZ8501

since it doesn't do anybody any good...especially if any relatives have

found this thread on TVF. Yeah...I know...be the first to correctly guess

what happened when that info finally becomes known...so what, does

it make you feel better, do you win a prize for yourself? Bah...get a life.

Here is what we do know...just the important bits...

type a/c

route

altitude

heading

fuel load

last known speed (353 Kns IAS)

number of pax & crew & their names/nationalities

last comms time

satellite weather in region at time of incident

todays weather in region vis satellite

Everything else is speculation to include

the Indo search director speculating that the

aircraft is at the bottom of the ocean.

Nothing has been found yet and it's been

a bit over 24 hours since disappearance.

In another 24 hours it may be time to be

overly concerned and 48 hours after that

time, if still nothing is found, the conspiracy

nuts will be out in full force...more than they

already are.

I reckon all of us should chill out for some

time and perhaps think of the victims families.

Some hard info follows below in jpeg format....

Weather yesterday in the disappearance area;

attachicon.gif244B48AD-2147.jpg

Relative depth of the Sunda Shelf;

attachicon.gif244B48AD-2150.jpg

Ocean going vessels in the area yesterday;

attachicon.gif244B48AD-2152.jpg

Air Asia Flight Dispatch release (good to go form)

attachicon.gifB57_gApCAAAVKLG.jpg large.jpg

Todays satellite weather chart from...

http://www.cabooltureweather.com/SatPics-MTSat.asp?Units=C

attachicon.gifcMCIRNegWorld.jpg

The Pax manifest...

attachicon.gif244B500700000578-2888862-The_flight_manifest_for_the_aircraft_has_been_released_about_six-m-39_1419745810408.jpg

We all read and covered that yesterday. We are dealing with today's info.. but thanks anyway. When you catch up.. please.. let us know. ;)

Posted

I believe the radar can see more like 100 miles.

Normal radar yes, doppler radar no.

I want to learn something here. What kind of radar do airliners have, exactly? Please?

This wiki link has more to do with ground based weather radar but if you scroll down the page

they do have decent nfo on airborne weather radar...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_radar

A link to the Airbus page on use of weather radar...

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/safety_library_items/AirbusSafetyLib_-FLT_OPS-ADV_WX-SEQ07.pdf

A link to Honeywell Corp airborne weather radar...

http://aerospace.honeywell.com/products/safety-systems/weather-radar

Heaps more nfo if you Google....Airborne Weather Radar Systems

Hope this helps you.

Interesting. The Honeywell weather radar can see out to 320Nm

  • Like 2
Posted

This tragedy might help some of us to rethink our own personal situation we're in.

I can't even imagine how that must be to have a relative, or friend on this flight and I feel very sorry for all who've lost a beloved one and won't come up with any speculations.

The drama is already strange enough and the fact that the pilot couldn't even send a Mayday says enough that they didn't suffer long.

How, or where it exactly happened is not relevant now for me. I hope they'll all rest in peace. Imagine all the people....

Not a good end of the year 2014 at all. Tears came out of my eyes when John started to sing.......

  • Like 1
Posted

Simply put, the pilot should have turned back.

Easy to be general after the battle is over.

Imagine this. You're on a trip to Singapore. 3 quarters of an hour into the flight, the pilot decides to make 180 and go back to Surabaya. You look out of window... yes, it was a little shaky, but just a few clouds, <deleted>?

On landing, you'd raise hell over how dares the b*stard in cockpit ruin your holidays by turning around.

Airline would be flooded with complaints, maybe even lawsuits.

How many of these complaining passengers would think that pilot just saved their lives? Right. None.

.

Well, that has happened to me before on more than one occasion over four decades of flying, both due to weather, and even such things as unconfirmed warning lights.

No problem for me. I believe in following old maxims; An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and, Better safe than sorry.

Perhaps you have the personality type that raises hell, I don't. And there would be no lawsuits. The pilot has full authority to divert or return.

In September of 2007, I refused to board a One-Two-Go flight to Phuket because I checked the weather on my own. My new girlfriend and I were headed to her aunt's wedding. The pilot actually came out to the lounge and smiling, told me not to worry, everything was fine, please board now. I said no thanks. My GF was pretty upset with me.

For about an hour. Now she's my wife.

Nice call on that one-two go flight. As soon as I read the about the weather aspects of this

current missing flight, I thought of that one -two go flight that crashed while attempting to

land in bad weather. That accident was a sort of financial get home itis, as it would have cost

the airline a lot of money to divert to another airport .

A number of years ago I was boarding a one-two go flight from Bangkok to Chiang Mai with my girlfriend. A bus took us out to the clapped out 747 they were flying at that time. While waiting in

line to board , standing near one of the engines, I noticed while the turbine was spinning it sounded like someone threw a bucket of bolts inside it. I refused to board the plane, and took the bus back.

One -two go at first refused to refund my money. I then showed them I had a video of the engine making all the noise, and I would be more than happy to release it to the media. They instantly refunded my money..... I checked later that day to see if they plane made it to CM. It did.. :-)

But it pays to always look at a form of public transportation , and refuse to go if you feel something is not right....

  • Like 1
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