Pridiyathorn expects Thai GDP to grow 4 percent

[webfact]

Pridiyathorn expects GDP to grow 4%
ERICH VON PARPART
THE NATION



DEPUTY PM IN CHARGE OF ECONOMY SAYS EXPORT SITUATION NOW STABLE

BANGKOK: -- MR PRIDIYATHORN DEVAKULA, deputy prime minister in charge of the economy, said at a seminar arranged by the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday that he was confident Thailand's gross domestic product would expand by at least 4 per cent this year.

He said it would be kicked off this quarter by the recovery of private investment, the increase in domestic consumption, and government expenditure, which will increase greatly between now and March.

'Uncertainty factored in'

Meanwhile, Pridiyathorn said exports had "stabilised" and the government had already factored the uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery into its economic forecast.

He believes the export sector will expand by around 2 per cent this year.

"A GDP expansion of 4 per cent in 2015 is definitely achievable and the government's job is to increase its spending on investment. We are planning to increase the average disbursement rate of the government investment budget from around 78 per cent to more than 80 per cent this year," he said.

The government budget for investment in the 2015 fiscal budget year is set at Bt459 billion.

Pridiyathorn expects domestic consumption to increase even further this quarter than in the final quarter of last year because of the falling oil prices.

Private investment is expected to recover at a greater pace after an increase of operation permits for opening factories, or Ro Ngo 4 licences, from the Industrial Works Department. A total of 3,800 factories won such permits between May 23, the day after the military's seizure of power, until the end of last year.

He said that of those 3,800 factories, 1,608 had opened in the last two months of 2014.

"That means there are more than 2,000 factories still waiting to open this year, and I believe that at least 1,500 of them will open in the first quarter," he said.

Meanwhile, he also expects some of the capital from the government stimulus package worth Bt324.47 billion that was earlier delayed to pour into the first economic quarter of 2015. He believes also that at least two-thirds of the Bt81 billion worth of government investment projects in the 2015 fiscal budget have had contracts signed.

The Bt74 billion worth of leftover government projects from 2014, for which contracts have already been signed, will also go on stream this quarter.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Pridiyathorn-expects-GDP-to-grow-4-30251925.html

-- The Nation 2015-01-15

[angsta]

Are we just making numbers up now? And in other news from Pyongyang...

[Roadman]

Should be achievable and reflective of World Bank opinion as well, given the blows and lows it copped from the political disturbance in late 2013 and early 2014, and with the initiatives that the Junta is utilising to kick it back into life from the low it was in, although even 2013 GDP at 1.8% many developed western countries would gladly have taken. World bank reporting from October is also showing what the deputy Prime Minister is saying with Thailand improving its ease of doing business to 26th in the world, and the expected growth from exports, excluding China, expected to increase across the East Asia Pacific region.

[ezzra]

Amazing how the PM an I think alike, I too, expect my manhood thingy to grow by 4%.. at least...

[Eric Loh]

Can only happen IF the government iron out the bottle necks in dispensing the budget, act quickly to legislate the laws regarding the massive projects, lift martial law to increase tourists inflow, China and EU get back to growth and our major trading partners have a firm guarantee from the junta on election date.

[Don Aleman]

That will happen when my 80 year old organ can play 4 " tunes "

every night !

[Suffinator]

They really don't know when to stop and how with each passing day they look more stupid ... yesterday it was a growth of 3.5% and daily it gets better. By the end of the month I suspect one of the idiots will be touting 15%. Still 3.5%, 4% or whatever figure they come up with above 2% is likely to be pure fantasy.

Is there anyone is government that actually understands internal and external economics?

[IMA_FARANG]

Not going to happen.

2015 has already shown the kind of year it will be, and frankly MOST countries this year will find it hard to make a 4% growth in GDP compared to last year.

2015 is going to be a hard year for the entire world.

Thailand included.

For Thailand 3% maybe, depending on China and Thai exports.

No way at 4%, external factors in the world will no let Thailand get to that figure.

2015 will be a slowdown in growth for the entire world economies.

.

[wabothai]

Uncertainty factored in.

Another cristal ball.

[JOC]

That will happen when my 80 year old organ can play 4 " tunes "

every night !

The minute waltz....................

[JOC]

Are we just making numbers up now? And in other news from Pyongyang...

Some of Pridiyathorn's family members will not be amused by your comment................

[h90]

Can only happen IF the government iron out the bottle necks in dispensing the budget, act quickly to legislate the laws regarding the massive projects, lift martial law to increase tourists inflow, China and EU get back to growth and our major trading partners have a firm guarantee from the junta on election date.

Well with lifting martial law and street protests will do worse than having martial law and no elections. Premature elections and get the next Shinawatra will hurt economic grow even more.

While I don't like this government much, it is still the best one in compare with Yingluck, Abhisit, Somchai, Samak.....

[elgordo38]

Are we just making numbers up now? And in other news from Pyongyang...

They should first master pulling a rabbit from a hat. Mark 4% on the December sheet of your calendar.

[rickirs]

Sweet elephant dung!

Earlier this month the Thai National Shippers’ Council projected that the value of Thai exports should increase by 2.5 % for 2015 but this does not include the possible effect caused by the EU to exclude Thailand from its GSP preferences in 2015 nor possible USA trade sanctions related to Thailand’s Tier 3 ranking.

Exports account for 70% of Thailand’s GDP. If exports don’t produce more than 2.5% GDP growth (I expect more like 1.5%) for 2015, then a GDP growth rate of 7.5% would be required from the domestic sector of the Thai economy to produce an annual average 4% GDP growth rate. When you consider that 50% of the domestic economy is agriculture, Thailand will not achieve an annual GDP growth rate of 4%. It will be victory enough to increase GDP by an average 3%.

[Time Traveller]

Seems like anyone with brains in Thailand are trying to distance themselves from the military and now the buffalo soldiers have to resort to the tried and failed with this guy (again!) as their economic minister.

A reminder for everyone, this is the guy who single handedly caused the largest one day crash in the thai stock market in 2006 (yes when the last military government was in control) through a dumbass capital control policy. Then just one day later cancelled it. Complete snafu x2

Pridiyathorn later then had the arrangance to say that “This was not a mistake. "

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pridiyathorn_Devakula

Be forewarned, as long as this guy is making policy decisions your "thai investments" are nothing more than gambling at a roulette wheel. We can all hope that Red come back, but don't cry if the ball lands on zero.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Time Traveller

[Thai at Heart]

I am awaiting a response from that numpty on another thread claming that Thailand didn't need FDI in order to grow GDP.

As long as foreign companies are not sure of the political landscape in Thailand they will get increasingly reluctant to come. The continual growth in GDP that Thailand has had has been massively driven by ongoing FDI from Japan, USA and the EU. This growth in the stock of FDI has to be maintained to keep growth moving, because the Thai portion of the economy isn't diverse or large enough to keep growing sufficiently.

Meanwhile, in another thread, finally the government states that they wont' be changing the Foreign Business Act which has been in the news for 6 months. If they want the economy to grow, reform the rules and let foreigners into the country to invest more freely. Simple really.