US: Everybody into the pool! Why is the 2016 GOP field so big?

[webfact]

Everybody into the pool! Why is the 2016 GOP field so big?
By NANCY BENAC

WASHINGTON (AP) — Who yelled "everybody into the pool?"

After all the candidate announcements, after all the speculation about who'd go first and who's yet to jump in, one question remains in this summer BEFORE the election year: Why are so many Republicans running for president?

Surely, the soon-to-be-17 announced GOP candidates don't all think they will become president.

But it's easy for a politician to get caught up in the hype and yell "cowabunga!" in a year when there's no incumbent seeking re-election and no Republican who seems to have an inside track to the nomination.

Plus, it's easier than ever to make a credible run for president, thanks to the equalizing effects of social media and digital fundraising, and with looser federal rules in place on raising money.

The apt question for an ambitious Republican this year seems to be: Well, why not?

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker adds his name to the list on Monday, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore to follow in coming weeks, bringing the total by summer's end to at least 17.

"Every now and then you have an election cycle that is defined by what can be best described as me-too-ism," says Mo Elleithee, executive director of Georgetown's Institute of Politics and Public Service and a onetime spokesman for Hillary Rodham Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign.

With any number of theoretical pathways to the GOP nomination, second-tier candidates may well have surveyed the field and said to themselves, "Why can't I burst into that top tier?" says Elleithee. "Everybody is sitting there with their advisers, slicing and dicing the electorate, and either finding a potential path or deluding themselves into finding a potential path."

Tony Fratto, a Washington consultant who worked for President George W. Bush, says there's far more than delusions motivating candidates. Beyond the generally easier mechanics of running for office, he says, there are all sorts of incentives to run that have nothing to do with actually being president.

"You have the opportunity to become a personality in a relatively short period of time," says Fratto. "You get on the national stage, your name ID is elevated and that can translate into writing books, giving speeches and getting an opportunity to go on TV." Not to mention a potential job as vice president or in the Cabinet.

It worked for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who's running again after parlaying his losing candidacy in the 2008 primaries into political celebrity, including TV and radio shows and book deals.

The should-I-run equation is different on the Democratic side, where Clinton is dominant, but even there, four other notable candidates have joined the against-the-odds race.

A look at some of the reasons so many candidates are running this year:

WAITING FOR A STUMBLE

Some candidates run just in case. If top-tier candidates suddenly falter, these challengers want to make sure they're positioned to step right up.

These types "genuinely think things can fall apart" for the top candidates, says Princeton historian Julian Zelizer.

He puts New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kasich in that category.

In Christie's case, says Zelizer, "I think part of him hopes that people will see how great he is — according to him" if an opening emerges.

THE OBAMA EFFECT

The election of a junior Illinois senator with a funny name as president in 2008 has heartened candidates who might not otherwise have thought of themselves as ready to run.

"What Barack Obama proved in 2008 is that you don't need all that much experience," says Fratto. "You can take on a presumed front-runner, and you can raise money and improve your name ID very quickly. That possibility wasn't imaginable in the past."

Obama's precedent has to hearten Marco Rubio from Florida and Ted Cruz from Texas, both 44-year-old freshman senators, and 52-year-old rookie Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

TAKING TURNS

Senior politicians may look at relative newcomers who've gotten into the race, and think, "Wait, it's my turn."

Elleithee envisions veterans such as Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Kasich asking themselves, "Why should these young up-and-comers be seen as more credible than me?"

IDEA GUYS

Some candidates run to get their ideas in the mix even if their candidacies face long odds.

Graham is pushing the Republicans to focus on national security. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is pressing Democrats to do more to address income inequality.

BIG MONEY

In the aftermath of the Supreme Court's 2010 ruling that loosened fundraising rules, says Zelizer, "all you need is a few wealthy people and you can be a presidential candidate." Candidates may not have enough money to go the distance, but a supportive billionaire or super PAC can bankroll a candidacy that otherwise might not go far.

Casino titan Sheldon Adelson's millions kept Newt Gingrich's 2012 candidacy afloat long after it otherwise would have gone under. Super PACs will file paperwork later this month that will help show who's benefiting from big donors this time around.

SMALL DOLLARS

No sugar daddy? No problem.

Online fundraising and social media have made it cheaper and easier for candidates to haul in lots of small contributions.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is relying on small contributions to propel his GOP campaign. And on the Democratic side, Sanders' upstart challenge to Clinton is pulling in millions mostly through small donors on the Internet.

BUILDING THE "ME" BRAND

Businessman-showman Donald Trump has to know he's not going to be president.

His self-promotional candidacy helps keep him in the news, something he's clearly relishing even if it's triggered a backlash that's going to cost him.

Companies and organizations are lining up to cut ties to Trump after his much-criticized comments about Mexican immigrants.
___

Associated Press writer Steve Peoples contributed to this report.

-- (c) Associated Press 2015-07-13

[AYJAYDEE]

some businessman! doing things that will cost him financially with no hope of becoming president either! lol

[JakeSully]

They are best trying to make this the 2016 Hunger Games where the GOP feasts on itself.

And it's all viewed on TV in Hi-Def. Great entertainment!

[Credo]

And when they get enough, they will try to add up the IQ's until it reaches 100.

[charmonman]

I can't understand why good old Sarah Palin hasn't stepped in. She might even manage to look credible in the midst of the Republican clown car!

[AlQaholic]

Sara Palin would be in good standing among this crowd

And the GB campaigning started six weeks before the elections and campaign budgets are restricted by law......But in the U.S.A.........How should one put it? Massive waste of money that could otherwise be used for something useful, like building schools, repairing bridges roads and other neglected infrastructure.

Donald Trump is a Flabber mouthed Bafoon but he might just win as an independent just because of that and the fact he is a billionaire....

Edited July 13, 2015 by AlQaholic

[Pinot]

Now with "The Donald" pacing the pack, the GOP race is proving to be THE most entertaining political race, ever.

I see two reasons for the crowded field:

All these clowns are not in it, to win it. Most of them know they don't have a prayer but it's a good entry into getting a Fox News gig, a la Hucklebee, etc. etc. As much as a dolt Palin is, she made a lot money out of her 10 minutes of fame. The lower entry barriers to get into the race and to become an actual relevant go-to person for the networks is just too enticing for these idiot politicians with inflated egos to sit it out.

The other thing is how absolutely terrible all these candidates are. This lowers the bar for all of them because then it becomes, why not me? With no front runner, it's wide open and with Trump leading? ...it's WIDE open.

I see this race as the last dying gasp of the Republican party. The racial bigotry still works to rally the base and these candidates are all using it. All the racial hatred has been somewhat cloaked until now, but Trump has opened that can of worms. The tired fiscal policies of austerity that's been overwhelmingly favored by the GOP have shown to be ineffective. Proselytizing against social changes like gay marriage is falling on deaf ears and alienating everyone with a high school education. The old scare techniques (murdering rapeing boogymen) only rings true for the truly paranoid (GOP core). The Republican party controls the house and the Senate and they can't accomplish a single thing. Nothing! They've alienated women and minorities. The Republican party is a laughing stock.

The party of old white men is dying. The country has moved on. Bush will probably be the candidate and the chances of another Bush getting elected after the last Bush fiasco is nil. So let's all just enjoy the fun.

[LawrenceN]

"What Barack Obama proved in 2008 is that you don't need all that much experience," says Fratto.

Also proved by Abraham Lincoln in 1860.

[Chicog]

Some are in it to sell books. Others are in it because they must genuinely feel that they have a chance.

My guess is that there will be a fair few dropping out as soon as they find out that they aren't in Fox's "Top Ten Clowns".

[chuckd]

And some are probably trying to position themselves to be a Vice President candidate.

[Chicog]

And Scott Walker has now jumped into the clowns car - he is the Koch Brothers favourite because he's the most likely to get rid of things like those pesky unions - the Kochs must see $$$ signs in their eyeballs at that one.

[connda]

Fast forward. On the ticket in 2016:

Dem: Hillary

Rep: Jeb

Independent: Trump

Everything else is meaningless. Bread and circuses. Hopefully Trump will continue to act totally Politically Incorrect.

Edited July 13, 2015 by connda

[Berkshire]

Fast forward. On the ticket in 2016:

Dem: Hillary

Rep: Jeb

Independent: Trump

Everything else is meaningless. Bread and circuses. Hopefully Trump will continue to act totally Politically Incorrect.

Can't happen as Trump has already declared himself a Republican. But if Trump were to run as an independent, he would demolish Jeb Bush's chances. He would rip the GOP in half. The Dems would win in a landslide.

[Ulic]

Regardless of who wins the Republican nomination and which pair punches the ticket, you just

can't beat the entertainment value. Absolutely first class. Personally I am hoping for a Trump/Cruz

ticket. Late night television gold.

[connda]

Fast forward. On the ticket in 2016:

Dem: Hillary

Rep: Jeb

Independent: Trump

Everything else is meaningless. Bread and circuses. Hopefully Trump will continue to act totally Politically Incorrect.

Can't happen as Trump has already declared himself a Republican. But if Trump were to run as an independent, he would demolish Jeb Bush's chances. He would rip the GOP in half. The Dems would win in a landslide.

Yeah, Ross Perot syndrome. Unfortunately what the US needs today is a president (and congress) who are not career politicians. But the US population is just plain to dumbed-down to vote their own career politicians out of office and bring in fresh blood who will start working for the good of the country. Citizens United v. FEC? Criminy, the Supreme Court hooked the politicos and big business at the hip though unlimited campaign contributions. Mussolini had a word for that. People who study history know what that word is. Few people study history nowadays. Baaaaaa. Sheep.

[bendejo]

Fast forward. On the ticket in 2016:

Dem: Hillary

Rep: Jeb

Independent: Trump

[...]

Which would split the conservative ticket, spelling victory for the Dems. See Ross Perot 1992 or Ralph Nader 2000 (split the Dem/liberal vote).

And wouldn't it be something if Bernie Sanders ended up running as an independent?

I'm wondering if all these GOP contenders will fragment the primaries such that it results in an open convention, in which case Jub Besh (please forget he's a Bush), the GOP's status quo candidate, will be given the slot.

There is something I still can't find a satisfactory answer for, anywhere. What happens when a candidate raises a load of money for his/her campaign, and when they're eliminated from the primaries they still have a few million $$ left over -- what is the legal status of that cash? I think this is a gray area, and it's in everyone's interest to keep it that way. And this alone may be why all the clowns are lining up.

Another thing: I think for someone who is very rich, I mean private jet rich, there may be tax advantages to being a presidential candidate, like being able to write off just about all cost-of-living expenditures during the candidacy. I think Perot's tax people may have broken ground on that one.

There was a time when Hugh Hefner was up to his neck in legal problems, and F. Lee Bailey became his attorney working for no fee, just expenses. When asked about it, Hef said "you would not believe the expenses racked up by a lawyer with his own Leer jet."

[spidermike007]

Quantity over quality. Gone are the days when that office attracted the best and the brightest. Now, dimwits and sluggards, and crooks like Disgusting Don are attracted to the office. Woe is the American people.

[Credo]

Quantity over quality. Gone are the days when that office attracted the best and the brightest. Now, dimwits and sluggards, and crooks like Disgusting Don are attracted to the office. Woe is the American people.

No, gone are the days when the press, like it does here in Thailand, censored itself and didn't report a lot of things.

But with this group, the size is still going to have to grow so that when they add up all the IQ's they can get up to 100.

[h90]

Fast forward. On the ticket in 2016:

Dem: Hillary

Rep: Jeb

Independent: Trump

Everything else is meaningless. Bread and circuses. Hopefully Trump will continue to act totally Politically Incorrect.

That makes the elections in North Korea looking good

A female Obama vs. Bush vs. the same in an clown edition.

I think USA would need their version of a Prayut....

[connda]

Quantity over quality. Gone are the days when that office attracted the best and the brightest. Now, dimwits and sluggards, and crooks like Disgusting Don are attracted to the office. Woe is the American people.

No, gone are the days when the press, like it does here in Thailand, censored itself and didn't report a lot of things.

But with this group, the size is still going to have to grow so that when they add up all the IQ's they can get up to 100.

Whoa! 100? I think you've way over-estimated that number.

[connda]

Fast forward. On the ticket in 2016:

Dem: Hillary

Rep: Jeb

Independent: Trump

Everything else is meaningless. Bread and circuses. Hopefully Trump will continue to act totally Politically Incorrect.

That makes the elections in North Korea looking good

A female Obama vs. Bush vs. the same in an clown edition.

I think USA would need their version of a Prayut....

The POTUS has been dismantling the military. I'm wonder how many times he's watched Seven Days in May.

[willyumiii]

As stated in the OP, being a Presidential candidate, even if you can not win the office, can be a very lucrative profession.

If played right you can make huge amounts of money off of the publicity you get running.

And as we all know, the GOP is all about making big money!

[Scott]

A post with an inflammatory reference has been removed.

[puck2]

I can't understand why good old Sarah Palin hasn't stepped in. She might even manage to look credible in the midst of the Republican clown car!

Also my idea.

Why not choosing Netanyahu as a Neo-Con candidate . A strong man. A short time before he controlled them already.

Not borne in the USA? No problem, CIA will clear this.

[Somtamnication]

Don't know. But why is the political race 16++ months!!!!!

[Berkshire]

I can't understand why good old Sarah Palin hasn't stepped in. She might even manage to look credible in the midst of the Republican clown car!

Also my idea.

Why not choosing Netanyahu as a Neo-Con candidate . A strong man. A short time before he controlled them already.

Not borne in the USA? No problem, CIA will clear this.

Funny. Forget that, a Republican President can make Netanyahu Secretary of Defense. Then Israel wouldn't even need a military. The entire US Army and US Marine Corps can just HQ in Jerusalem.