£ v Baht

[loppylugs1]

£ hit the Baht quite hard this morning up over 55 mark,24 hours ago was around 54.4. Maybe 60 soon ?

[emilymat]

Loppy.............It's clearly getting better but I think we have reached the going rate - at least for a while. If the Bank of England had announced an interest rate rise last week we might have seen even stronger pound. But, they've indicated it will be several months before an increase is likely.

I'm no expert but the baht is weakening but has probably been reached almost it's weakest point.

I'm no anorak on keeping precise tabs on the movement of the UK pound v baht. However, I do seem to recall that last year the pound reached 55 baht at some time, but within months it was down to 48 (last autumn?).

So, I still plan my finances on 50 - which seems safe for the moment at least.

There's many a 70 baht poster on this forum and we would all love it to rise to at least 60.

[Rimmer]

Moved to banking forum

[rwdrwdrwd]

55.7 would be a couple of weeks off a 6 year high, I'll transfer a few months worth when it hits that, if not before - likely to hit some resistance, though it is on a strong trajectory.

Edited August 11, 2015 by rwdrwdrwd

[loppylugs1]

The problems with Thailand keep mounting,I think that weighs far more heavily than the news from home. However the US are almost certain to push interest rates up soon ,that would make Europe especially up their rates too

China Aussie NZ oh dear

For all the UK punters with exchange rates and increase in pensions its almost 20% spending increase over the dark days of last year.

Today's news for Thailand according to BP is looking for a total wipe out(almost)

Edited August 11, 2015 by loppylugs1

[fish fingers]

Sterling will keep getting stronger. Personally think Thailand's economy is in dire problems, the junta don't seem to be in control.

will hit a 6 year 'high' for £ against baht v soon. At some point 'something' will happen and we will see well over 60

[Chivas]

Sterling will keep getting stronger. Personally think Thailand's economy is in dire problems, the junta don't seem to be in control.

will hit a 6 year 'high' for £ against baht v soon. At some point 'something' will happen and we will see well over 60

Its not Sterling getting stronger per se. Its bouncing around the $1.50's as it has for some time. Its the Bahts weakness against the Greenback alone thats raising our rate....

[fish fingers]

Sterling will keep getting stronger. Personally think Thailand's economy is in dire problems, the junta don't seem to be in control.

will hit a 6 year 'high' for £ against baht v soon. At some point 'something' will happen and we will see well over 60

Its not Sterling getting stronger per se. Its bouncing around the $1.50's as it has for some time. Its the Bahts weakness against the Greenback alone thats raising our rate....

both are getting stronger simultaneously against most currencies atm - still feel sterling is a better long term bet

Edited August 11, 2015 by fish fingers

[Hugh Jarse]

Sterling will keep getting stronger. Personally think Thailand's economy is in dire problems, the junta don't seem to be in control.

will hit a 6 year 'high' for £ against baht v soon. At some point 'something' will happen and we will see well over 60

If you think Thai econony has problems read this weeks Economist magazine about the far worse situation in Indonesia and Malaysia.

[stament]

Over 55 and rising! Will we see a return to 60. Holy cow if we got to 70 I think I'd cash out lol

[BWPattaya]

When I first came here it was 75 to the GBP. That would be nice to see again.

[stament]

I got 77 ten years back doubt we will see levels like that or 70 that's just being greedy!

[i claudius]

I was her in 97 when we got 90 , i thought i had died and gone to heaven

[Naam]

I was her in 97 when we got 90 , i thought i had died and gone to heaven

there are people who still get 90 when they buy Baht in their home country. some get even 117!

[billd766]

I was her in 97 when we got 90 , i thought i had died and gone to heaven

Me too. I was working with Motorola and DTAC at the time and when our contracts were up for renewal (mine was the end of November 1997) we were politely told that they would not be renewed.

I ended up in Sri Lanka for 7 months followed by Egypt, South Africa, Angola and Portugal. After Prortugal I quit Motorola and weny working as a contractor.

[i claudius]

I was her in 97 when we got 90 , i thought i had died and gone to heaven

Me too. I was working with Motorola and DTAC at the time and when our contracts were up for renewal (mine was the end of November 1997) we were politely told that they would not be renewed.

I ended up in Sri Lanka for 7 months followed by Egypt, South Africa, Angola and Portugal. After Prortugal I quit Motorola and weny working as a contractor.

I was partners in a business here ,my end got paid in sterling ,he got baht, not a good time for him but wonderful for me ,and things were so much cheaper anyway,I had a lovely studio on sukhumvit,in Bkk close to Nana,I think I was paying about 9000 baht a month,oh happy days Edited August 12, 2015 by i claudius

[mommysboy]

Long over due happier days for us wishing for a good pound v baht exchange rate.

What's more this has the potential to snowball. Not saying it will but there is a chance we could see 60 rate sooner rather than later.

Just a few weeks ago people were being called fantasists for mentioning 70 rate, but this can not be ruled out by any means.

[Chivas]

Long over due happier days for us wishing for a good pound v baht exchange rate.

What's more this has the potential to snowball. Not saying it will but there is a chance we could see 60 rate sooner rather than later.

Just a few weeks ago people were being called fantasists for mentioning 70 rate, but this can not be ruled out by any means.

If Sterling moved back to $2.00 then the Baht wouldn't even need to move from Current Levels to grant your 70 wish....!!

[MaeJoMTB]

Still at 55, you might be able to get 54.2 for selling actual 20 pound notes.

[blackcab]

54.8 at Super Rich today.

[mommysboy]

There are many factors influencing exchange rates. In Thailand's case I simply point to the imperative of needing to compete for exports in a very tight market where some peer economies seem to have the edge. It is not until Thai goods are viewed as being a bargain again that any recovery can take place, and arguably the baht is a long way off that position. The recent weakening of the Chinese Yuan doesn't really impact on that balance, because other Asian currencies would have undergone the same. So I would say there is a way to go yet.

[Naam]

There are many factors influencing exchange rates. In Thailand's case I simply point to the imperative of needing to compete for exports in a very tight market where some peer economies seem to have the edge. It is not until Thai goods are viewed as being a bargain again that any recovery can take place, and arguably the baht is a long way off that position. The recent weakening of the Chinese Yuan doesn't really impact on that balance, because other Asian currencies would have undergone the same. So I would say there is a way to go yet.

correct! in fact some Asian-Pacific currencies lost a multiple vs. USD and GBP, e.g. year-to-day:

MYR Malaysian Ringgit............... -14.63%

IDR Indonesian Rupiah.................-17.54%

AUD Astralian Dollar.....................-10.70%

NZD New Zealand Dollar..............-18.94%

KRW Korean Won.......................- 7.80%

SGD Singapore Dollar..................- 5.45%

[chiang mai]

It's pretty close to, if not already at the bottom, you'd be silly not to buy at around 55.

[emilymat]

It's pretty close to, if not already at the bottom, you'd be silly not to buy at around 55.

I also think the UK pound has reached its peak. My view is based on UK radio discussions where strong representations against the strength of the pound are being made by UK exporters. They are mainly concerned about the Pound/Euro obviously.

If other governments can do it, then the UK can also intervene to top the rise in the value. What they want is low interest rates (to appease mortgage payers) and a less strong pound to satisfy exporters - that's my simplistic view.

Personally, I still budget on 50 baht. I think what we all want is some stability - not a continuing yo-yo between 48/55.

[sandyf]

It's pretty close to, if not already at the bottom, you'd be silly not to buy at around 55.

I also think the UK pound has reached its peak. My view is based on UK radio discussions where strong representations against the strength of the pound are being made by UK exporters. They are mainly concerned about the Pound/Euro obviously.

If other governments can do it, then the UK can also intervene to top the rise in the value. What they want is low interest rates (to appease mortgage payers) and a less strong pound to satisfy exporters - that's my simplistic view.

Personally, I still budget on 50 baht. I think what we all want is some stability - not a continuing yo-yo between 48/55.

A lot hinges on the Americans, the dollar index dropped as the markets closed last night pushing the pound up.

Edited August 15, 2015 by sandyf

[chiang mai]

Only the first line above begining "It's pretty close.." is my post, the rest belongs to poster emilymat.

[sandyf]

Only the first line above begining "It's pretty close.." is my post, the rest belongs to poster emilymat.

Apologies, forgot to move it out initially.

[mommysboy]

It's pretty close to, if not already at the bottom, you'd be silly not to buy at around 55.

Not sure I agree with this CM. It might be the case, but I think that although the pound could well weaken against similar currencies, the baht might be due for a major fall all of itself.

[chiang mai]

It's pretty close to, if not already at the bottom, you'd be silly not to buy at around 55.

Not sure I agree with this CM. It might be the case, but I think that although the pound could well weaken against similar currencies, the baht might be due for a major fall all of itself.

That's cool. What do you think will be the catalyst for the bahts fall, exports?

[mommysboy]

It's so paradoxical, in theory the baht should not devalue at all, Thailand has a trade surplus, balances its budget in a way that UK can only dream about, and has healthy foreign reserves.

Yet it is this very thing that spells trouble for exports, so yes exports are the main driver here. Thailand really needs to stimulate export growth fast, and a weakened baht is the obvious option.

Then a general capital flight.

Then weak growth, not only because of exports but also through lack of public investment, and weak consumer spending caused by low wages, and high private debt.

In summary, it is more subjective than objective, but real nonetheless. Indeed it is happening already.

Now I have made my prediction, that should serve as a suitable cue for a sudden surge in the baht's strength to unprecedented levels.