In the past while, there has been some unfavorable news about the economic situation in Thailand. In your opinion, do you think these factors are likely to result in a return to political violence?

For reference, see these threads:

Rising anger in Thailand's boom-to-bust Issan

Thai owned UK steel plant goes into liquidation

Please feel free to make a comment. Be advised that comments about the Royal family are not permitted and exercise care in how you phrase remarks about the current government.

tic toc, tic toc, its just a matter of time before all hell breaks loose.

Yes.

There are to many factors to give a definitive Yes or No answer but my gut feeling is that something will happen before the next, whenever that is, election.

The red shirts may not be seen....or heard from so much, but they are there in the shadows getting on with their scheming and plotting!

The resources and influence of the actual fomenters is rapidly drying up. A final, desperate attempt to screw everything up again is not impossible, but things are looking very good for the moment. Look to the new bank in Shanghai to offer support. Once the worm turns good things will happen fast.

As usual the question is about the 'North East'.

The North East of Thailand is so diverse in geography, political and economic situations, agricultural practices and so on, that people living here can't really answer this question. Full of Red shirts? That's Khon Kaen and Udon, hours and hours away from here. The economic situation of the average worker or farmer hasn't changed much here for years, rice subsidies had no affect whatever on most farmers here. If anything happens it will be manipulation by the usual suspects, politicians and rabble rousers.

If there's rising anger in the NE it will be in the NE of England where residents will be pretty peed off at the loss of 1,800 jobs, resulting from a Thai company's failed foray into steel..

I feel like the entire planet is edging closer to a series of revolutions. Just waiting to see which nation goes first.

+1

It's recently been demonstrated how easy it is to plant a devastating bomb in central Bangkok. It only needs a small group of extremists from whatever side to do the same should they feel the need to further their cause.

With all the pressure imposed on rice farmers it wont take long before poverty turns to anger , This governments only concern is for its own longevity and believes people can survive on nothing , it wont bother the government as they still get paid .

Way to narrow a survey question.

It may, but probably not soon. There is just as good a chance that if there really is an election then the violence may be restrained until the outcome of that election and then that outcome may cause violence. Too many variables.

With all the pressure imposed on rice farmers it wont take long before poverty turns to anger , This governments only concern is for its own longevity and believes people can survive on nothing , it wont bother the government as they still get paid .

This governments only concern is for its own longevity and believes people can survive on nothing , it wont bother the government as they still get paid .

You are talking about the shin governments, right?

There are to many factors to give a definitive Yes or No answer but my gut feeling is that something will happen before the next, whenever that is, election.

The red shirts may not be seen....or heard from so much, but they are there in the shadows getting on with their scheming and plotting!

200 BHT buys a vote and makes Thaksin a good guy, I personaly never mention his name as many believe in him and not only in the North East.

If violence erupts then welcome many more years of military ruin, Thaland fast becoming a state of China.

My answer is highly probable.

Yes.

As usual the question is about the 'North East'.

The North East of Thailand is so diverse in geography, political and economic situations, agricultural practices and so on, that people living here can't really answer this question. Full of Red shirts? That's Khon Kaen and Udon, hours and hours away from here. The economic situation of the average worker or farmer hasn't changed much here for years, rice subsidies had no affect whatever on most farmers here. If anything happens it will be manipulation by the usual suspects, politicians and rabble rousers.

at the end of the day does it really matter what colour shirts they wear?

The bottom line is the political sentiment in the north-east of Thailand is polar opposite to that in Bangkok because they have different interests and there is no way to avoid an inevitable election result as has been shown several times now?

I beleive yes there will be problems as the rest of Thailand is treated differently to Bangkok. Where is the major developments for the north of the country? We only hear about progress for Bangkok region. Why aren't the government planning for jobs in the north. The list goes on while the poor still struggle to make ends meet.

I feel like the entire planet is edging closer to a series of revolutions. Just waiting to see which nation goes first.

.............with the USA/NATO behind all the troubles we see spreading across the world.

Nothing will happen as long as the army keeps checks on the red rabble rouses. Without payment and organisation the farmers won't do a thing, so making sure the rabble rouses get punished and don't get a chance to start trouble will make sure the farmers behave.

That is why they are so tough with the reds, because if they get a chance they will start trouble and then we have fighting and deaths again. If they want to protest let them go to Chang Mai and bother their own.

I might not support the junta 100% but i support them 100% in making sure that we don't get the same street protests as before.

Ultimately it will happen if the country is not returned to a democracy. This government/oligarchy/dictatorship has been given time to sort out various problem but if it takes the long term option there will be opposition and more than just civil unrest.

The portrayal by a bangkok based media as the poor as scroungers radically undermines the facts..

In the 'good old days' that the military is trying to return us to.. The 80s and 90s.. The rural economy received 5 - 10% of the countries budget allocation..

In 2001 that had risen to 16%.. and now it is in the low to mid 20% range.. Bangkok has 16% of the Thai population and 70% of its tax revenue.. Isaan has 30% the countries population and gets 6% of its revenue !!! A bangkok Thai gets 100's of per cent more proportionally spent on them.. Bangkok gets 400% the education budget per child.. 16x the medical spending per person..

But as Thailand works mostly on consumption taxes even tho income tax payments from the poor is low they contribute too.. VAT makes 50% of the government revenue and the poor pay that dis-proportionally than the rich.

Yet the yellow media would have you believe its the poor wanting handouts.. How about reducing the bangkok budget to nearer equality to the rural budgets based on populations..

These numbers are no longer a secret to the poor.. They know they are being given the crumbs while being accused of asking for too much.. The insult that is being told to live a 'sufficiency economy' while single shopping malls in bangkok consumer more electricity than entire provinces in the North is just stunning hypocrisy.

Those balances will be redressed.. either safely and calmly in the ballot boxes, or more dangerously outside of them.

The portrayal by a bangkok based media as the poor as scroungers radically undermines the facts..

In the 'good old days' that the military is trying to return us to.. The 80s and 90s.. The rural economy received 5 - 10% of the countries budget allocation..

In 2001 that had risen to 16%.. and now it is in the low to mid 20% range.. Bangkok has 16% of the Thai population and 70% of its tax revenue.. Isaan has 30% the countries population and gets 6% of its revenue !!! A bangkok Thai gets 100's of per cent more proportionally spent on them.. Bangkok gets 400% the education budget per child.. 16x the medical spending per person..

But as Thailand works mostly on consumption taxes even tho income tax payments from the poor is low they contribute too.. VAT makes 50% of the government revenue and the poor pay that dis-proportionally than the rich.

Yet the yellow media would have you believe its the poor wanting handouts.. How about reducing the bangkok budget to nearer equality to the rural budgets based on populations..

These numbers are no longer a secret to the poor.. They know they are being given the crumbs while being accused of asking for too much.. The insult that is being told to live a 'sufficiency economy' while single shopping malls in bangkok consumer more electricity than entire provinces in the North is just stunning hypocrisy.

Those balances will be redressed.. either safely and calmly in the ballot boxes, or more dangerously outside of them.

How about the budget gets divided based on tax income, sounds fair to me most of the tax is paid in BKK and most of the money is made in BKK seems fair that most of it is spend there then too.

Based on population, of course not based on where the tax income is derived. That is much fairer investing in a place that makes money vs giving money to a bottomless well.

There are to many factors to give a definitive Yes or No answer but my gut feeling is that something will happen before the next, whenever that is, election.

The red shirts may not be seen....or heard from so much, but they are there in the shadows getting on with their scheming and plotting!

It's not just the 'red shirts', whichever factions they now comprise and I would hazard a guess Taksin's not their premium poster boy any more no matter how many times that's trumpeted on this forum. There's also the New Democracy Movement, Seri Thai, who I believe wouldn't resort to violence but could offer up some form of passive resistance same the rest of the country, including here in the South who are also getting are getting mightily pissed off. I voted 'yes', but am not of the opinion it need necessarily end in physical violence. At least I hope not. Passive resistance way to go a la Gandhi

Of course not, that first article was ridiculously stupid. Only a tiny percentage of Thai identify as red shirts, western media has been proclaiming Thailand is on the virge of a red shirt rebellion and civil war for years now but it hasn't happened and never will.

The portrayal by a bangkok based media as the poor as scroungers radically undermines the facts..

In the 'good old days' that the military is trying to return us to.. The 80s and 90s.. The rural economy received 5 - 10% of the countries budget allocation..

In 2001 that had risen to 16%.. and now it is in the low to mid 20% range.. Bangkok has 16% of the Thai population and 70% of its tax revenue.. Isaan has 30% the countries population and gets 6% of its revenue !!! A bangkok Thai gets 100's of per cent more proportionally spent on them.. Bangkok gets 400% the education budget per child.. 16x the medical spending per person..

But as Thailand works mostly on consumption taxes even tho income tax payments from the poor is low they contribute too.. VAT makes 50% of the government revenue and the poor pay that dis-proportionally than the rich.

Yet the yellow media would have you believe its the poor wanting handouts.. How about reducing the bangkok budget to nearer equality to the rural budgets based on populations..

These numbers are no longer a secret to the poor.. They know they are being given the crumbs while being accused of asking for too much.. The insult that is being told to live a 'sufficiency economy' while single shopping malls in bangkok consumer more electricity than entire provinces in the North is just stunning hypocrisy.

Those balances will be redressed.. either safely and calmly in the ballot boxes, or more dangerously outside of them.

I agree and once again it's not just the North, Phuket, a rather large cash cow, gets a disproportionate amount spent on it's infrastructure. But there again, didn't Taksin famously refuse to increase Phuket's budget because they didn't vote for him?

The junta would love this to happen, as it's just another excuse to hold onto power indefinitely.

Every single person who has a little knowledge about Thai history knows exactly why the Junta need to be in control of the country, or at least have their puppets controlling it.

Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

In the past while, there has been some unfavorable news about the economic situation in Thailand. In your opinion, do you think these factors are likely to result in a return to political violence?

Not only in NE, but also, ONLINE,.... if you know what I'm referring to....

I fear that violence is a real possibility.

I fear more that that violence and Thai against Thai will result in a North Korea style country

even faster than many are already anticipating.

There will be no criticism or opposition that will go unpunished.

I would also ask that if there is 'rising anger' - is someone winding them up?

Ultimately it will happen if the country is not returned to a democracy. This government/oligarchy/dictatorship has been given time to sort out various problem but if it takes the long term option there will be opposition and more than just civil unrest.

'return to democracy' Saan? Chance would be a fine thing had there been democracy here in the first place!!!!!!!!

The junta would love this to happen, as it's just another excuse to hold onto power indefinitely.

Every single person who has a little knowledge about Thai history knows exactly why the Junta need to be in control of the country, or at least have their puppets controlling it.

Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

Which is why passive resistance way to go. Thais have no problem with passivity

... I might not support the junta 100% but i support them 100% in making sure that we don't get the same street protests as before.

I agree, band aids are awesome.