KResearch forecasts 2015 GDP growth at 2.8%



BANGKOK, 06 October 2015 (NNT) - Kasikorn Research Center has forecast gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 2.8% this year, but slashed exports to minus 5%.

Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Center, revealed that it forecast GDP growth at 2.8% this year and 3% in 2016. She explained that in the third quarter of 2015, the government's stimulus measures and tourism growth buoyed poor performance by the export sector.

The Center forecasts export growth at minus 5%, revising down its previous projection of minus 1.7%. It cited sluggish growth by China, a major trade partner.

The fourth quarter of 2015 has mainly external risk factors, due to market volatility from the US Federal Reserve's decision not to hike its benchmark interest rates.


-- NNT 2015-10-06

The fourth quarter of 2015 has mainly external risk factors, due to market volatility from the US Federal Reserve's decision not to hike its benchmark interest rates.

Glad it is only about the US Fed and nothing about possible EU sanctions and tier 3 trafficking status. Not to mention the single gateway and the effect that will have on investment and movement of Thai money out of the country.

Should have used Dusit or the guys TAT use would be much higher then.....

KResearch "revealed that it forecast GDP growth at 2.8% this year and 3% in 2016."

Actually in March 2015 KResearch already "cut its nation's economic growth projection from 4% to 2.8%, thanks to the slow economic recovery rate and shrinking exports." This means that for the following five months government efforts at improving GDP growth have failed, regardless of whether it was at fault or not.

Maybe KResearch should update its prediction. Then it might match the World Bank's cut today of Thailand’s economic growth rate from 3.5 percent to 2.5 percent for 2015. Personally, I expect 2.5% to be the upper limit for growth in 2015.