UK expats for EU exit

[Jip99]

As an aside - it is becoming very obvious that the Remainers are scared of the hard work this Brexit will involve. The Leavers have not gone into this without knowing it's going to hurt for a while, like any divorce, but it's not going to kill any of the politicians and negotiators to actually roll their sleeves up and get on with it. The thing that's holding UK back now is the almost-criminal dithering of the politicians. If anything is going to cause UK a problem it is the delay in this process..

As a previous poster suggested earlier, the ground work is being firmly laid for the Remain camp to be blamed if everything doesn't run smoothly and/or if parts of the separation are delivered late, your post is an extension of that.

What's also truly alarming is the denials in various threads that nothing has yet changed ergo, there's been no impact from the early stages of the Brexit decision, as if a ten per cent fall in the value of the Pound to a 31 year low against USD is nothing. Increasingly it's becoming crystal clear that the same bunch of loonies who voted for Brexit without really understanding what they were voting for and without any appreciation for the economic implications, are the same people who are now trying to paper over the financial cracks/looming chasms and continue to blame the establishment or old guard for any outcome that doesn't match their personal expectations.

Voter demographics at the outset were spot on, a majority of Brexiteers are not well educated and increasingly the referendum continues to be a "haves" versus the "have nots" issue rather than anything related to what was claimed.

Your post is out of order.

I resent being called a "loony" and I reject your assertion that my voting preference means that I am not well educated. Your comments are facile and well below the usual balanced standard we see from you.

You have focused on one area by repeating your reference to the GBP/USD. You know full well that is where the majority of speculators will focus their efforts - as Soros did in 1992. Nobody loses money unless they trade at the reduced rates and many businesses will have hedged their Dollar requirements to cover the post-Brexit situation. However, I accept that factually there has been a 10% reaction on GBP/USD (far less than the 20% fall predicted by YOU earlier).

If you are going to quote one area of negative impact, a well-educated and reasonable person would also quote the fact )for example) that FTSE100 has increased since the Brexit result.

Nobody that I know on Leave side is considering blaming any Remaniac if the exit does not go smoothly. It is incumbent on the government to manage the exit process in the best interests of the UK. If they fail to do that (and I don't believe in the sabotage theories) they could have the best part of 17m votes at the next general election.

What we need now is degree of unity in taking the UK forward in line with wishes of referendum result. Enough of the whingeing and criticism from many in the Remain camp who simply can't accept defeat.

I can't help thinking that the less educated Brexiteers would have acted more graciously.

Your myopic view is truly disappointing.

[chiang mai]

As an aside - it is becoming very obvious that the Remainers are scared of the hard work this Brexit will involve. The Leavers have not gone into this without knowing it's going to hurt for a while, like any divorce, but it's not going to kill any of the politicians and negotiators to actually roll their sleeves up and get on with it. The thing that's holding UK back now is the almost-criminal dithering of the politicians. If anything is going to cause UK a problem it is the delay in this process..

As a previous poster suggested earlier, the ground work is being firmly laid for the Remain camp to be blamed if everything doesn't run smoothly and/or if parts of the separation are delivered late, your post is an extension of that.

What's also truly alarming is the denials in various threads that nothing has yet changed ergo, there's been no impact from the early stages of the Brexit decision, as if a ten per cent fall in the value of the Pound to a 31 year low against USD is nothing. Increasingly it's becoming crystal clear that the same bunch of loonies who voted for Brexit without really understanding what they were voting for and without any appreciation for the economic implications, are the same people who are now trying to paper over the financial cracks/looming chasms and continue to blame the establishment or old guard for any outcome that doesn't match their personal expectations.

Voter demographics at the outset were spot on, a majority of Brexiteers are not well educated and increasingly the referendum continues to be a "haves" versus the "have nots" issue rather than anything related to what was claimed.

I think you have hit another nail on the head there, the Remainers seem to think that the Leavers are not educated enough to make the right decision as if they are no more than a bunch of thickos, to be be truly a person on education and superior interlect you must be a remainer. A very insolent way of thinking and perhaps another reason why so many people voted to leave. Anyone who could not see that remain was the obvious position must be stupid.

I on the other hand think that anyone who would want to stay in a club that cannot sign off its accounts for 20 years and has admitted they cannot live within their budget to the tune of £259B must be stupid, the place is out of control and its best we get out before it takes us with it.

Even the IMF now says that the EU cannot continue in its present form so what will it look like in the future. If it does continue in its present form tell me what it will look like in the future? No one can can they, we just dont know, its all speculation but given their past record it does not look good, others are now talking of referendums, Switzerland has withdrawn its application. If it starts to fall apart how will they get out of the Euro, adopt their own currency again or opt for the $ or the £?

South Korea now wants a free trade deal with us, seems like a lot want to have a free trade with us but not hearing much about any prospect with the EU, please tell me I am wrong.

It is clear that the UK will need many trade negotiators over the next couple of years, we have enough in place I believe, it will take time, as long as it needs to get the right deal but it will be done. I am sue that the EU will want a deal as well.

Again all the pessimists and the " I am holier than though" "I know better than you" are based in the Remain camp, the optimists are in the Leave camp. The Leave camp won the decision so all that remainers can do now is to either accept things, which seems unlikely or continue with reasons not to succeed or patronize the low intelligence of people who do not share their opinions.

No one likes to lose, but some accept it better than others.

I used the word "majority" rather than "all", for obvious reasons. The reasons why I raised this aspect again was simply that I was reminded of it again in spades over the weekend.

Firstly, Mike Rowe the Chairman of BT was expressing his concern at the loss of business resulting from Brexit and said words to the effect that Project Fear was actually Project Fact but few people understood that, before the referendum. What was most telling about that statement was in the readers comments where a multitude of people with names such as Brexiteer, Brexitman, Leaver et al made comments such as, well, if you can't stand the heat or are too lazy to do some real work, go live in the Eu, clearly not comments made by the sharpest of the species. That instance was not isolated either and I would encourage folks to read Readers Comments after any such article to help gauge the mood of elements of the population.

Secondly, the demographic research done by the pollsters before the referendum was conclusive beyond doubt, as I recall it talked about there being a 65% chance that Brexiteers weren't educated past GCSE level and were likely to be in lower socio-economic classes, none of which is a criticism, merely a fact. Demographics also show that Brexiteers are most likely to live in poorer or impoverished areas, the results from which correlated to high numbers of Brexit vote returns.

Thirdly, even in this thread we have instances of posters telling us that the newspapers tell them how to vote (no need to think about anything), that's the Express, the Sun, The Mail and The Star. God help the UK if that's really how people make important voting decisions that effect the future of the country and our children and grandchildren.

Finally, we see the comments made by Bexiteers in this forum regarding economic "fact" and they are so removed from reality and fact as to be embarrassing to the country as a whole: "the UK has no manufacturing any more", " there has been no impact from Brexit thus far", "the Pound has stabilised" and so on. A person doesn't need to be classified as a Leaver or a Remainer to know immediately such comments are nonsense, unfortunately the people who write such things AND many of the people who read them, don't understand that and they get taken as fact by many. Unfortunately, many of the key Brexit people, on this forum and elsewhere, those who campaigned and argued so authoritatively for Brexit, have now disappeared, I wonder why!

And finally finally: I have no problem or issue with anyone with low intelligence but they must expect to be patronised and worse if they claim they are anything other than that and argue for important causes with utter cobblers..

[chiang mai]

As an aside - it is becoming very obvious that the Remainers are scared of the hard work this Brexit will involve. The Leavers have not gone into this without knowing it's going to hurt for a while, like any divorce, but it's not going to kill any of the politicians and negotiators to actually roll their sleeves up and get on with it. The thing that's holding UK back now is the almost-criminal dithering of the politicians. If anything is going to cause UK a problem it is the delay in this process..

As a previous poster suggested earlier, the ground work is being firmly laid for the Remain camp to be blamed if everything doesn't run smoothly and/or if parts of the separation are delivered late, your post is an extension of that.

What's also truly alarming is the denials in various threads that nothing has yet changed ergo, there's been no impact from the early stages of the Brexit decision, as if a ten per cent fall in the value of the Pound to a 31 year low against USD is nothing. Increasingly it's becoming crystal clear that the same bunch of loonies who voted for Brexit without really understanding what they were voting for and without any appreciation for the economic implications, are the same people who are now trying to paper over the financial cracks/looming chasms and continue to blame the establishment or old guard for any outcome that doesn't match their personal expectations.

Voter demographics at the outset were spot on, a majority of Brexiteers are not well educated and increasingly the referendum continues to be a "haves" versus the "have nots" issue rather than anything related to what was claimed.

Your post is out of order.

I resent being called a "loony" and I reject your assertion that my voting preference means that I am not well educated. Your comments are facile and well below the usual balanced standard we see from you.

You have focused on one area by repeating your reference to the GBP/USD. You know full well that is where the majority of speculators will focus their efforts - as Soros did in 1992. Nobody loses money unless they trade at the reduced rates and many businesses will have hedged their Dollar requirements to cover the post-Brexit situation. However, I accept that factually there has been a 10% reaction on GBP/USD (far less than the 20% fall predicted by YOU earlier).

If you are going to quote one area of negative impact, a well-educated and reasonable person would also quote the fact )for example) that FTSE100 has increased since the Brexit result.

Nobody that I know on Leave side is considering blaming any Remaniac if the exit does not go smoothly. It is incumbent on the government to manage the exit process in the best interests of the UK. If they fail to do that (and I don't believe in the sabotage theories) they could have the best part of 17m votes at the next general election.

What we need now is degree of unity in taking the UK forward in line with wishes of referendum result. Enough of the whingeing and criticism from many in the Remain camp who simply can't accept defeat.

I can't help thinking that the less educated Brexiteers would have acted more graciously.

Your myopic view is truly disappointing.

"reasonable person would also quote the fact )for example) that FTSE100 has increased since the Brexit result".

A knowledgable and sensible person who is versed in even basic economics would understand that as the value of the Pound drops, equities denominated in that same currency become cheaper to holders of other currencies which in turn causes an index such as FTSE to rise. That is not a cause it's an effect.

[Orac]

As an aside - it is becoming very obvious that the Remainers are scared of the hard work this Brexit will involve. The Leavers have not gone into this without knowing it's going to hurt for a while, like any divorce, but it's not going to kill any of the politicians and negotiators to actually roll their sleeves up and get on with it. The thing that's holding UK back now is the almost-criminal dithering of the politicians. If anything is going to cause UK a problem it is the delay in this process..

As a previous poster suggested earlier, the ground work is being firmly laid for the Remain camp to be blamed if everything doesn't run smoothly and/or if parts of the separation are delivered late, your post is an extension of that.

What's also truly alarming is the denials in various threads that nothing has yet changed ergo, there's been no impact from the early stages of the Brexit decision, as if a ten per cent fall in the value of the Pound to a 31 year low against USD is nothing. Increasingly it's becoming crystal clear that the same bunch of loonies who voted for Brexit without really understanding what they were voting for and without any appreciation for the economic implications, are the same people who are now trying to paper over the financial cracks/looming chasms and continue to blame the establishment or old guard for any outcome that doesn't match their personal expectations.

Voter demographics at the outset were spot on, a majority of Brexiteers are not well educated and increasingly the referendum continues to be a "haves" versus the "have nots" issue rather than anything related to what was claimed.

Your post is out of order.

I resent being called a "loony" and I reject your assertion that my voting preference means that I am not well educated. Your comments are facile and well below the usual balanced standard we see from you.

You have focused on one area by repeating your reference to the GBP/USD. You know full well that is where the majority of speculators will focus their efforts - as Soros did in 1992. Nobody loses money unless they trade at the reduced rates and many businesses will have hedged their Dollar requirements to cover the post-Brexit situation. However, I accept that factually there has been a 10% reaction on GBP/USD (far less than the 20% fall predicted by YOU earlier).

If you are going to quote one area of negative impact, a well-educated and reasonable person would also quote the fact )for example) that FTSE100 has increased since the Brexit result.

Nobody that I know on Leave side is considering blaming any Remaniac if the exit does not go smoothly. It is incumbent on the government to manage the exit process in the best interests of the UK. If they fail to do that (and I don't believe in the sabotage theories) they could have the best part of 17m votes at the next general election.

What we need now is degree of unity in taking the UK forward in line with wishes of referendum result. Enough of the whingeing and criticism from many in the Remain camp who simply can't accept defeat.

I can't help thinking that the less educated Brexiteers would have acted more graciously.

Your myopic view is truly disappointing.

Something like 75% of FTSE100 companies revenue is made in foreign currency so a 10% decline in sterling translate to a 10% rise in revenue and profit for that 75% if business. If you were to look at the value if of the FTSE100 in dollar terms it has far from recovered.

[chiang mai]

And for Jip, before he expresses even more cosmetic outrage, here's the demographics I refer to:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-the-results-compare-to-the-uks-educated-old-an/

[KarenBravo]

We are currently starting trade deals with India and shortly with China, the EU has yet to get round to it with these two important countries.

I am confident we have the people to get the right deals in which both partys can benefit and then there is the new deal we will need with the EU, with goodwill a way will be found, its in no nones interest for one not to be found and I really dont understand why so many people speculating on this topic, that is what we are doing after all, are so full of doom and gloom, if that is what you want to see then the UK will drown and you will say "told you so" is that what you want? Surely that would be bad for everyone, we would be hit in the pocket. This is a time for everyone to come to the aid of the country and help us steer to calmer waters and a new prosperous future.

If anyone thinks the future is brighter in the EU I guess you are free to move there if you wish, whilst the borders remain down and see if you have made the right choice, somehow I doubt it many will be doing that or trading in their UK passport for an EU one in the future, unless of course you are going to tell me differently.

I am having a beer at the moment. Not sure if it is half empty or half full.

The glass is always full.

In your case, it's just the beer to air ratio that needs to be determined......

[MissAndry]

I am having a beer at the moment. Not sure if it is half empty or half full.

Sounds to me like the 'beer girl' isn't doing her job.

[alanrchase]

I am having a beer at the moment. Not sure if it is half empty or half full.

Sounds to me like the 'beer girl' isn't doing her job.

Where is the girl? Shanks pony up to mom and pop.

[jpinx]

As an aside - it is becoming very obvious that the Remainers are scared of the hard work this Brexit will involve. The Leavers have not gone into this without knowing it's going to hurt for a while, like any divorce, but it's not going to kill any of the politicians and negotiators to actually roll their sleeves up and get on with it. The thing that's holding UK back now is the almost-criminal dithering of the politicians. If anything is going to cause UK a problem it is the delay in this process..

As a previous poster suggested earlier, the ground work is being firmly laid for the Remain camp to be blamed if everything doesn't run smoothly and/or if parts of the separation are delivered late, your post is an extension of that.

What's also truly alarming is the denials in various threads that nothing has yet changed ergo, there's been no impact from the early stages of the Brexit decision, as if a ten per cent fall in the value of the Pound to a 31 year low against USD is nothing. Increasingly it's becoming crystal clear that the same bunch of loonies who voted for Brexit without really understanding what they were voting for and without any appreciation for the economic implications, are the same people who are now trying to paper over the financial cracks/looming chasms and continue to blame the establishment or old guard for any outcome that doesn't match their personal expectations.

Voter demographics at the outset were spot on, a majority of Brexiteers are not well educated and increasingly the referendum continues to be a "haves" versus the "have nots" issue rather than anything related to what was claimed.

Your post is out of order.

I resent being called a "loony" and I reject your assertion that my voting preference means that I am not well educated. Your comments are facile and well below the usual balanced standard we see from you.

You have focused on one area by repeating your reference to the GBP/USD. You know full well that is where the majority of speculators will focus their efforts - as Soros did in 1992. Nobody loses money unless they trade at the reduced rates and many businesses will have hedged their Dollar requirements to cover the post-Brexit situation. However, I accept that factually there has been a 10% reaction on GBP/USD (far less than the 20% fall predicted by YOU earlier).

If you are going to quote one area of negative impact, a well-educated and reasonable person would also quote the fact )for example) that FTSE100 has increased since the Brexit result.

Nobody that I know on Leave side is considering blaming any Remaniac if the exit does not go smoothly. It is incumbent on the government to manage the exit process in the best interests of the UK. If they fail to do that (and I don't believe in the sabotage theories) they could have the best part of 17m votes at the next general election.

What we need now is degree of unity in taking the UK forward in line with wishes of referendum result. Enough of the whingeing and criticism from many in the Remain camp who simply can't accept defeat.

I can't help thinking that the less educated Brexiteers would have acted more graciously.

Your myopic view is truly disappointing.

Something like 75% of FTSE100 companies revenue is made in foreign currency so a 10% decline in sterling translate to a 10% rise in revenue and profit for that 75% if business. If you were to look at the value if of the FTSE100 in dollar terms it has far from recovered.

So - by the same logic - the US index has risen in terms of sterling???

[HauptmannUK]

A lot of the Brexit supporters are exhibiting the Dunning-Kruger effect. They overestimate the limited knowledge they have whilst simply having no awareness of the gaps in knowledge that they have.

I spend about half of each year working overseas on behalf of British companies. I have spent three of the last twelve months negotiating joint ventures in China.

I have seen it (incorrectly) stated that the EU has no trade agreement with China.

In fact, not only does the EU have numerous trade agreements with China, it also has many officials and experts based in Beijing to support the trade of EU member countries. In fact I am right now working with some Beijing-based EU tax experts in trying to recover overpaid Chinese Witholding Tax on behalf of a UK company.

The UK has very limited infrastructure to promote business in China. This infrastructure can be expanded over time, but it will not come cheap and it will not be easy. The Chinese will give nothing unless the UK also gives.

Let me further illustrate some of the issues.

I do some work a UK company that supplies specialised sensors for automotive, aerospace and process markets. The sensor elements are designed in the UK. They are fabricated in Malaysia and China, before shipping to the UK for QA/calibration and packaging. They enter the UK tariff-free thanks to EU trade agreements. Once packaged they then go to European customers such as Siemens and Temic for inegration into harnesses and systems. Some of these finished products will then make their way back to end users in the UK, such as Honda, Jaguar, BAe.

The impact of leaving the EEA single market and defaulting to WTO rules would be completely devastating for this company. Costs would rise 20-25%. They would need to relocate into the EEA to stay in business.

The Friday after the Leave result the management circulated an email to all staff stating that only essential 'core expenditure' will be permitted until the future economic direction of the country becomes clear.

What the UK is potentially about to do is take the role of an economic suicide bomber. Blowing up our economy and in so doing exposing the EU to some collatoral damage. The Brexit leader all have big egos. If they thought there was going to be a bright future outside the EU they would stick around to be involved and take some of the glory. But they have all (remarkably quickly) left the scene.

I quite agree that there are many things wrong with the EU, but they should have been worked out from within - restructuring the EU with support from other Eurosceptic countries.

If the UK stays within the EEA then the economic consequences of Brexit could be quite modest. If we leave the EEA then they will be severe.

Its no use saying that the UK used to control one-third of the world. Its not the 1870's any more. Its not even the 1970's. Obtaining trade agreements with countries like India and China is agonisingly complex. Even a simple joint-venture agreement between a Chinese and UK company will take about one year for Chinese ministry of trade approval to be granted - AFTER submission of all documentation etc.

Don't even get me started on India. Its a complete nightmare and will take many many years for a UK-India bilateral agreement to surface. In the meantime we'd revert to WTO.

Edited July 11, 2016 by HauptmannUK

[jpinx]

A lot of the Brexit supporters are exhibiting the Dunning-Kruger effect. They overestimate the limited knowledge they have whilst simply having no awareness of the gaps that they have.

I spent about half of each year working overseas on behalf of British companies. I have spent three of the last twelve months negotiating joint ventures in China.

I have seen it (incorrectly) stated that the EU has no trade agreement with China.

In fact, not only does the EU have numerous trade agreements with China, it also has many officials and experts based in Beijing to support the trade of EU member countries. In fact I am right now working with some Beijing-based EU tax experts in trying to recover overpaid Chinese Witholding Tax on behalf of a UK company.

The UK has very limited infrastructure to promote business in China. This infrastructure can be expanded over time, but it will not come cheap and it will not be easy. The Chinese will give nothing unless the UK also gives.

Let me further illustrate some of the issues.

I do some work a UK company that supplies specialised sensors for automotive, aerospace and process markets. The sensor elements are designed in the UK. They are fabricated in Malaysia and China, before shipping to the UK for QA/calibration and packaging. They enter the UK tariff-free thanks to EU trade agreements. Once packaged they then go to European customers such as Siemens and Temic for inegration into harnesses and systems. Some of these finished products will then make their way back to end users in the UK, such as Honda, Jaguar, BAe.

The impact of leaving the EEA single market and defaulting to WTO rules would be completely devastating for this company. Costs would rise 20-25%. They would need to relocate into the EEA to stay in business.

The Friday after the Leave result the management circulated an email to all staff stating that only essential 'core expenditure' will be permitted until the future economic direction of the country becomes clear.

What the UK is potentially about to do is take the role of an economic suicide bomber. Blowing up our economy and in so doing exposing the EU to some collatoral damage. The Brexit leader all have big egos. If they thought there was going to be a bright future outside the EU they would stick around to be involved and take some of the glory. But they have all (remarkably quickly) left the scene.

I quite agree that there are many things wrong with the EU, but they should have been worked out from within - restructuring the EU with support from other Eurosceptic countries.

If the UK stays within the EEA then the economic consequences of Brexit could be quite modest. If we leave the EEA then they will be severe.

Its no use saying that the UK used to control one-third of the world. Its not the 1870's any more. Its not even the 1970's. Obtaining trade agreements with countries like India and China is agonisingly complex. Even a simple joint-venture agreement between a Chinese and UK company will take about one for Chinese ministry of trade approval to be give - AFTER submission of all documentation etc.

Your illustration is a good example of knee-jerk management. There will be no changes to the arrangements that company has untul the UK *actually* leaves the EU -- a process that will not start until article 50 is invoked, which will not happen until UK politicians stop running around like headless chickens.

[jpinx]

As an aside - it is becoming very obvious that the Remainers are scared of the hard work this Brexit will involve. The Leavers have not gone into this without knowing it's going to hurt for a while, like any divorce, but it's not going to kill any of the politicians and negotiators to actually roll their sleeves up and get on with it. The thing that's holding UK back now is the almost-criminal dithering of the politicians. If anything is going to cause UK a problem it is the delay in this process..

As a previous poster suggested earlier, the ground work is being firmly laid for the Remain camp to be blamed if everything doesn't run smoothly and/or if parts of the separation are delivered late, your post is an extension of that.

What's also truly alarming is the denials in various threads that nothing has yet changed ergo, there's been no impact from the early stages of the Brexit decision, as if a ten per cent fall in the value of the Pound to a 31 year low against USD is nothing. Increasingly it's becoming crystal clear that the same bunch of loonies who voted for Brexit without really understanding what they were voting for and without any appreciation for the economic implications, are the same people who are now trying to paper over the financial cracks/looming chasms and continue to blame the establishment or old guard for any outcome that doesn't match their personal expectations.

Voter demographics at the outset were spot on, a majority of Brexiteers are not well educated and increasingly the referendum continues to be a "haves" versus the "have nots" issue rather than anything related to what was claimed.

I think you have hit another nail on the head there, the Remainers seem to think that the Leavers are not educated enough to make the right decision as if they are no more than a bunch of thickos, to be be truly a person on education and superior interlect you must be a remainer. A very insolent way of thinking and perhaps another reason why so many people voted to leave. Anyone who could not see that remain was the obvious position must be stupid.

I on the other hand think that anyone who would want to stay in a club that cannot sign off its accounts for 20 years and has admitted they cannot live within their budget to the tune of £259B must be stupid, the place is out of control and its best we get out before it takes us with it.

Even the IMF now says that the EU cannot continue in its present form so what will it look like in the future. If it does continue in its present form tell me what it will look like in the future? No one can can they, we just dont know, its all speculation but given their past record it does not look good, others are now talking of referendums, Switzerland has withdrawn its application. If it starts to fall apart how will they get out of the Euro, adopt their own currency again or opt for the $ or the £?

South Korea now wants a free trade deal with us, seems like a lot want to have a free trade with us but not hearing much about any prospect with the EU, please tell me I am wrong.

It is clear that the UK will need many trade negotiators over the next couple of years, we have enough in place I believe, it will take time, as long as it needs to get the right deal but it will be done. I am sue that the EU will want a deal as well.

Again all the pessimists and the " I am holier than though" "I know better than you" are based in the Remain camp, the optimists are in the Leave camp. The Leave camp won the decision so all that remainers can do now is to either accept things, which seems unlikely or continue with reasons not to succeed or patronize the low intelligence of people who do not share their opinions.

No one likes to lose, but some accept it better than others.

I used the word "majority" rather than "all", for obvious reasons. The reasons why I raised this aspect again was simply that I was reminded of it again in spades over the weekend.

Firstly, Mike Rowe the Chairman of BT was expressing his concern at the loss of business resulting from Brexit and said words to the effect that Project Fear was actually Project Fact but few people understood that, before the referendum. What was most telling about that statement was in the readers comments where a multitude of people with names such as Brexiteer, Brexitman, Leaver et al made comments such as, well, if you can't stand the heat or are too lazy to do some real work, go live in the Eu, clearly not comments made by the sharpest of the species. That instance was not isolated either and I would encourage folks to read Readers Comments after any such article to help gauge the mood of elements of the population.

Secondly, the demographic research done by the pollsters before the referendum was conclusive beyond doubt, as I recall it talked about there being a 65% chance that Brexiteers weren't educated past GCSE level and were likely to be in lower socio-economic classes, none of which is a criticism, merely a fact. Demographics also show that Brexiteers are most likely to live in poorer or impoverished areas, the results from which correlated to high numbers of Brexit vote returns.

Thirdly, even in this thread we have instances of posters telling us that the newspapers tell them how to vote (no need to think about anything), that's the Express, the Sun, The Mail and The Star. God help the UK if that's really how people make important voting decisions that effect the future of the country and our children and grandchildren.

Finally, we see the comments made by Bexiteers in this forum regarding economic "fact" and they are so removed from reality and fact as to be embarrassing to the country as a whole: "the UK has no manufacturing any more", " there has been no impact from Brexit thus far", "the Pound has stabilised" and so on. A person doesn't need to be classified as a Leaver or a Remainer to know immediately such comments are nonsense, unfortunately the people who write such things AND many of the people who read them, don't understand that and they get taken as fact by many. Unfortunately, many of the key Brexit people, on this forum and elsewhere, those who campaigned and argued so authoritatively for Brexit, have now disappeared, I wonder why!

And finally finally: I have no problem or issue with anyone with low intelligence but they must expect to be patronised and worse if they claim they are anything other than that and argue for important causes with utter cobblers..

So remainers won't mind being patronised -- "There, there you spoiled little boys and girls, but this is the way democracy works -- the masses have the vote. If you don't like it you can move to Thailand."

[HauptmannUK]

Your illustration is a good example of knee-jerk management. There will be no changes to the arrangements that company has untul the UK *actually* leaves the EU -- a process that will not start until article 50 is invoked, which will not happen until UK politicians stop running around like headless chickens.

No. Its a good example of responsible management. If I were a shareholder in this company right now I wouldn't want another penny of capital investment in the UK. Why take the risk?

In fact my guess is that this company will retain design/IPR in the UK and relocate QA/calib and packaging elsewhere in the EU. Irrespective of Article 50. That's at least 80 jobs gone. The only thing that will stop this, and other companies, moving jobs out of the UK is a very quick and unequivocal statement by the next PM that the UK will stay in the EEA.

Business is not interested in hearing about two years of 'negotiations'.

[midas]

looks like the UK may have escaped by the skin of their teeth because today the Deutsche Bank chief economist is calling for a 150 billion Euro bailout of European banks !!!

I trust that the UK will not be expected to contribute to any of that

[Orac]

As an aside - it is becoming very obvious that the Remainers are scared of the hard work this Brexit will involve. The Leavers have not gone into this without knowing it's going to hurt for a while, like any divorce, but it's not going to kill any of the politicians and negotiators to actually roll their sleeves up and get on with it. The thing that's holding UK back now is the almost-criminal dithering of the politicians. If anything is going to cause UK a problem it is the delay in this process..

As a previous poster suggested earlier, the ground work is being firmly laid for the Remain camp to be blamed if everything doesn't run smoothly and/or if parts of the separation are delivered late, your post is an extension of that.

What's also truly alarming is the denials in various threads that nothing has yet changed ergo, there's been no impact from the early stages of the Brexit decision, as if a ten per cent fall in the value of the Pound to a 31 year low against USD is nothing. Increasingly it's becoming crystal clear that the same bunch of loonies who voted for Brexit without really understanding what they were voting for and without any appreciation for the economic implications, are the same people who are now trying to paper over the financial cracks/looming chasms and continue to blame the establishment or old guard for any outcome that doesn't match their personal expectations.

Voter demographics at the outset were spot on, a majority of Brexiteers are not well educated and increasingly the referendum continues to be a "haves" versus the "have nots" issue rather than anything related to what was claimed.

Your post is out of order.

I resent being called a "loony" and I reject your assertion that my voting preference means that I am not well educated. Your comments are facile and well below the usual balanced standard we see from you.

You have focused on one area by repeating your reference to the GBP/USD. You know full well that is where the majority of speculators will focus their efforts - as Soros did in 1992. Nobody loses money unless they trade at the reduced rates and many businesses will have hedged their Dollar requirements to cover the post-Brexit situation. However, I accept that factually there has been a 10% reaction on GBP/USD (far less than the 20% fall predicted by YOU earlier).

If you are going to quote one area of negative impact, a well-educated and reasonable person would also quote the fact )for example) that FTSE100 has increased since the Brexit result.

Nobody that I know on Leave side is considering blaming any Remaniac if the exit does not go smoothly. It is incumbent on the government to manage the exit process in the best interests of the UK. If they fail to do that (and I don't believe in the sabotage theories) they could have the best part of 17m votes at the next general election.

What we need now is degree of unity in taking the UK forward in line with wishes of referendum result. Enough of the whingeing and criticism from many in the Remain camp who simply can't accept defeat.

I can't help thinking that the less educated Brexiteers would have acted more graciously.

Your myopic view is truly disappointing.

Something like 75% of FTSE100 companies revenue is made in foreign currency so a 10% decline in sterling translate to a 10% rise in revenue and profit for that 75% if business. If you were to look at the value if of the FTSE100 in dollar terms it has far from recovered.

So - by the same logic - the US index has risen in terms of sterling???

Well yes but, with the drop in value those pounds are worth a lot less in global purchasing value.

Sterling has become an unstable currency with a dramatic drop in such a short period of time with no clear sign that the underlying political issues are going to be resolved any time soon. That instability has been immediately reflected in the stock markets but has yet to filter down into real world issues for people in the uk which is the effect on jobs and inflation.

Measured in sterling my net worth has gone up 6.9% in the first six months of the year which, as a Brit, I would normally be quite chuffed about, however, I don't buy anything here in pounds so a more realistic figure would be the 5.9% drop in value measured in baht or the longer term view I prefer of 3.8% down in USD terms.

[jpinx]

Your illustration is a good example of knee-jerk management. There will be no changes to the arrangements that company has untul the UK *actually* leaves the EU -- a process that will not start until article 50 is invoked, which will not happen until UK politicians stop running around like headless chickens.

No. Its a good example of responsible management. If I were a shareholder in this company right now I wouldn't want another penny of capital investment in the UK. Why take the risk?

In fact my guess is that this company will retain design/IPR in the UK and relocate QA/calib and packaging elsewhere in the EU. Irrespective of Article 50. That's at least 80 jobs gone. The only thing that will stop this, and other companies, moving jobs out of the UK is a very quick and unequivocal statement by the next PM that the UK will stay in the EEA.

Business is not interested in hearing about two years of 'negotiations'.

Maybe that management team needs some education in taking opportunities as they present themselves. A lot of contracts are for about 2 years so it would be perfectly possible to seize the moment. Unless, of course, they are being extra clever and using the UK vote as a good excuse to get out to a cheaper labour market and not take the blame for the move.

[chiang mai]

I used the word "majority" rather than "all", for obvious reasons. The reasons why I raised this aspect again was simply that I was reminded of it again in spades over the weekend.

Firstly, Mike Rowe the Chairman of BT was expressing his concern at the loss of business resulting from Brexit and said words to the effect that Project Fear was actually Project Fact but few people understood that, before the referendum. What was most telling about that statement was in the readers comments where a multitude of people with names such as Brexiteer, Brexitman, Leaver et al made comments such as, well, if you can't stand the heat or are too lazy to do some real work, go live in the Eu, clearly not comments made by the sharpest of the species. That instance was not isolated either and I would encourage folks to read Readers Comments after any such article to help gauge the mood of elements of the population.

Secondly, the demographic research done by the pollsters before the referendum was conclusive beyond doubt, as I recall it talked about there being a 65% chance that Brexiteers weren't educated past GCSE level and were likely to be in lower socio-economic classes, none of which is a criticism, merely a fact. Demographics also show that Brexiteers are most likely to live in poorer or impoverished areas, the results from which correlated to high numbers of Brexit vote returns.

Thirdly, even in this thread we have instances of posters telling us that the newspapers tell them how to vote (no need to think about anything), that's the Express, the Sun, The Mail and The Star. God help the UK if that's really how people make important voting decisions that effect the future of the country and our children and grandchildren.

Finally, we see the comments made by Bexiteers in this forum regarding economic "fact" and they are so removed from reality and fact as to be embarrassing to the country as a whole: "the UK has no manufacturing any more", " there has been no impact from Brexit thus far", "the Pound has stabilised" and so on. A person doesn't need to be classified as a Leaver or a Remainer to know immediately such comments are nonsense, unfortunately the people who write such things AND many of the people who read them, don't understand that and they get taken as fact by many. Unfortunately, many of the key Brexit people, on this forum and elsewhere, those who campaigned and argued so authoritatively for Brexit, have now disappeared, I wonder why!

And finally finally: I have no problem or issue with anyone with low intelligence but they must expect to be patronised and worse if they claim they are anything other than that and argue for important causes with utter cobblers..

So remainers won't mind being patronised -- "There, there you spoiled little boys and girls, but this is the way democracy works -- the masses have the vote. If you don't like it you can move to Thailand."

If you really must hang a label on me then so be it, I prefer to think of it in terms of rights and wrongs, appropriate or not, good for the country or not, in that respect I can say I've looked at the issues and I best fit in the Remain camp. My argument however is that many Brexiteers seem loyal to their tribe rather being a Brexiteer by virtue of their own analysis and findings, but there again, being smart is not a requirement for membership in a democratic society so I guess we can't have it both ways, democratic and a smart population.

[jpinx]

Well yes but, with the drop in value those pounds are worth a lot less in global purchasing value.

Sterling has become an unstable currency with a dramatic drop in such a short period of time with no clear sign that the underlying political issues are going to be resolved any time soon. That instability has been immediately reflected in the stock markets but has yet to filter down into real world issues for people in the uk which is the effect on jobs and inflation.

Measured in sterling my net worth has gone up 6.9% in the first six months of the year which, as a Brit, I would normally be quite chuffed about, however, I don't buy anything here in pounds so a more realistic figure would be the 5.9% drop in value measured in baht or the longer term view I prefer of 3.8% down in USD terms.

==================

Okay -- so what is the standard by which we should be measuring the value of a currency? the US$ ? gold? A basket of other currencies? It's all opinion and basically fiction. The ONLY standard is *confidence*, and that is what the UK politicians are robbing from Sterling with every day that passes without a clear vision of the future. The vote was to Leave -- please do it NOW! ....and watch sterling rebound

[MissAndry]

Okay -- so what is the standard by which we should be measuring the value of a currency?

My favorite reporter explains that too.

[jpinx]

I used the word "majority" rather than "all", for obvious reasons. The reasons why I raised this aspect again was simply that I was reminded of it again in spades over the weekend.

Firstly, Mike Rowe the Chairman of BT was expressing his concern at the loss of business resulting from Brexit and said words to the effect that Project Fear was actually Project Fact but few people understood that, before the referendum. What was most telling about that statement was in the readers comments where a multitude of people with names such as Brexiteer, Brexitman, Leaver et al made comments such as, well, if you can't stand the heat or are too lazy to do some real work, go live in the Eu, clearly not comments made by the sharpest of the species. That instance was not isolated either and I would encourage folks to read Readers Comments after any such article to help gauge the mood of elements of the population.

Secondly, the demographic research done by the pollsters before the referendum was conclusive beyond doubt, as I recall it talked about there being a 65% chance that Brexiteers weren't educated past GCSE level and were likely to be in lower socio-economic classes, none of which is a criticism, merely a fact. Demographics also show that Brexiteers are most likely to live in poorer or impoverished areas, the results from which correlated to high numbers of Brexit vote returns.

Thirdly, even in this thread we have instances of posters telling us that the newspapers tell them how to vote (no need to think about anything), that's the Express, the Sun, The Mail and The Star. God help the UK if that's really how people make important voting decisions that effect the future of the country and our children and grandchildren.

Finally, we see the comments made by Bexiteers in this forum regarding economic "fact" and they are so removed from reality and fact as to be embarrassing to the country as a whole: "the UK has no manufacturing any more", " there has been no impact from Brexit thus far", "the Pound has stabilised" and so on. A person doesn't need to be classified as a Leaver or a Remainer to know immediately such comments are nonsense, unfortunately the people who write such things AND many of the people who read them, don't understand that and they get taken as fact by many. Unfortunately, many of the key Brexit people, on this forum and elsewhere, those who campaigned and argued so authoritatively for Brexit, have now disappeared, I wonder why!

And finally finally: I have no problem or issue with anyone with low intelligence but they must expect to be patronised and worse if they claim they are anything other than that and argue for important causes with utter cobblers..

So remainers won't mind being patronised -- "There, there you spoiled little boys and girls, but this is the way democracy works -- the masses have the vote. If you don't like it you can move to Thailand."

If you really must hang a label on me then so be it, I prefer to think of it in terms of rights and wrongs, appropriate or not, good for the country or not, in that respect I can say I've looked at the issues and I best fit in the Remain camp. My argument however is that many Brexiteers seem loyal to their tribe rather being a Brexiteer by virtue of their own analysis and findings, but there again, being smart is not a requirement for membership in a democratic society so I guess we can't have it both ways, democratic and a smart population.

Many people went to war "for the good of the tribe" -- even if the war was not something they agreed with. Are we going to have a new political party of Brexit Conscientious Objecters?

[chiang mai]

If you really must hang a label on me then so be it, I prefer to think of it in terms of rights and wrongs, appropriate or not, good for the country or not, in that respect I can say I've looked at the issues and I best fit in the Remain camp. My argument however is that many Brexiteers seem loyal to their tribe rather being a Brexiteer by virtue of their own analysis and findings, but there again, being smart is not a requirement for membership in a democratic society so I guess we can't have it both ways, democratic and a smart population.

Many people went to war "for the good of the tribe" -- even if the war was not something they agreed with. Are we going to have a new political party of Brexit Conscientious Objecters?

Yours would be a good analogy, if only there was a voting aspect involved in going to war!

[Orac]

Well yes but, with the drop in value those pounds are worth a lot less in global purchasing value.

Sterling has become an unstable currency with a dramatic drop in such a short period of time with no clear sign that the underlying political issues are going to be resolved any time soon. That instability has been immediately reflected in the stock markets but has yet to filter down into real world issues for people in the uk which is the effect on jobs and inflation.

Measured in sterling my net worth has gone up 6.9% in the first six months of the year which, as a Brit, I would normally be quite chuffed about, however, I don't buy anything here in pounds so a more realistic figure would be the 5.9% drop in value measured in baht or the longer term view I prefer of 3.8% down in USD terms.

==================

Okay -- so what is the standard by which we should be measuring the value of a currency? the US$ ? gold? A basket of other currencies? It's all opinion and basically fiction. The ONLY standard is *confidence*, and that is what the UK politicians are robbing from Sterling with every day that passes without a clear vision of the future. The vote was to Leave -- please do it NOW! ....and watch sterling rebound

I wouldn't use gold as a benchmark as the price can be volatile across all currencies. A basket of currencies would probably be a better measure but, since you would have to exclude the currency you want to measure, would take a bit more time to evaluate so, as much as it pains me, I would go for USD as it is used in the majority of intl transactions.

I would agree with you that decisive leadership is needed now in the UK so that there is a clear path of where we are going that will allow businesses to plan for the future and that triggering article 50 should be a part of that, however, I disagree that by doing that the pound will rebound as I think the current level is just a stop gap as the markets still feel there is a chance that it will not be triggered. Though I think the suggestions of parity with the USD are overblown I would expect a further drop to around the $1.15/$1.20 level which would be the 'new normal' until how we are going to be dealing with the EU and the rest of the world is resolved which will take several years.

[chiang mai]

Well yes but, with the drop in value those pounds are worth a lot less in global purchasing value.

Sterling has become an unstable currency with a dramatic drop in such a short period of time with no clear sign that the underlying political issues are going to be resolved any time soon. That instability has been immediately reflected in the stock markets but has yet to filter down into real world issues for people in the uk which is the effect on jobs and inflation.

Measured in sterling my net worth has gone up 6.9% in the first six months of the year which, as a Brit, I would normally be quite chuffed about, however, I don't buy anything here in pounds so a more realistic figure would be the 5.9% drop in value measured in baht or the longer term view I prefer of 3.8% down in USD terms.

==================

Okay -- so what is the standard by which we should be measuring the value of a currency? the US$ ? gold? A basket of other currencies? It's all opinion and basically fiction. The ONLY standard is *confidence*, and that is what the UK politicians are robbing from Sterling with every day that passes without a clear vision of the future. The vote was to Leave -- please do it NOW! ....and watch sterling rebound

Why not tell us what you think a sensible time frame is for Brexit, perhaps start with, "select a PM" and take us through the key/major steps which takes us to final having severed all ties with those nasty Europeans, if indeed that's your end point?

[jpinx]

If you really must hang a label on me then so be it, I prefer to think of it in terms of rights and wrongs, appropriate or not, good for the country or not, in that respect I can say I've looked at the issues and I best fit in the Remain camp. My argument however is that many Brexiteers seem loyal to their tribe rather being a Brexiteer by virtue of their own analysis and findings, but there again, being smart is not a requirement for membership in a democratic society so I guess we can't have it both ways, democratic and a smart population.

Many people went to war "for the good of the tribe" -- even if the war was not something they agreed with. Are we going to have a new political party of Brexit Conscientious Objecters?

Yours would be a good analogy, if only there was a voting aspect involved in going to war!

There was - in a manner of speaking -- Atlee out, Churchill in. But I over simplify - the point is that the vote has been and gone, the result is clear and now it is incumbent on the politicians and the rest of the remainers to accept the decision and work hard for the best outcome. I am well aware of the opinions of remainers - we see enough of them in here as well, but it does not give them the right to be obstructive, as many are doing. The responsibility is to move forward, restore confidence (and thereby restore sterling) and anyone who can not live with the result has the option of moving. When Ireland was partitioned, many families moved north or south - depending on their acceptance or not.

[Ricardo]

So - by the same logic - the US index has risen in terms of sterling???

Well yes but, with the drop in value those pounds are worth a lot less in global purchasing value.

Sterling has become an unstable currency with a dramatic drop in such a short period of time with no clear sign that the underlying political issues are going to be resolved any time soon. That instability has been immediately reflected in the stock markets but has yet to filter down into real world issues for people in the uk which is the effect on jobs and inflation.

Measured in sterling my net worth has gone up 6.9% in the first six months of the year which, as a Brit, I would normally be quite chuffed about, however, I don't buy anything here in pounds so a more realistic figure would be the 5.9% drop in value measured in baht or the longer term view I prefer of 3.8% down in USD terms.

I would second that assessment.

I do a rough monthly balance-sheet for my investments & overall-wealth, and then value the total in Sterling (my 'old' currency, which still has some 'gut-feel' to me) , then US-Dollars (which most of my investments are denominated-in) , and finally Baht (where over half my costs currently arise). I feel that I learn something from monitoring the changes in all three totals.

On my July-2nd month-end, I was 8.8% richer in Sterling-terms, compared to end-May, but just-under 2% poorer in US$ and Baht.

If I were still UK-resident, then I might be kidding myself that things were still OK, they're not but it will take a little time for the cost-increases to hit the High Street. If I were Harold Wilson, then I'd still be grappling with the problem !

Since I'm Thai-resident, I am not overjoyed with the result of my first post-Brexit month-end, but I am pleased that I wasn't significantly-invested in UK stocks, and the effect on my meager pensions will not crystallise for another few years & will anyway benefit from any eventual strengthening in the Pound, if it ever happens.

Edited July 11, 2016 by Ricardo

[jpinx]

Well yes but, with the drop in value those pounds are worth a lot less in global purchasing value.

Sterling has become an unstable currency with a dramatic drop in such a short period of time with no clear sign that the underlying political issues are going to be resolved any time soon. That instability has been immediately reflected in the stock markets but has yet to filter down into real world issues for people in the uk which is the effect on jobs and inflation.

Measured in sterling my net worth has gone up 6.9% in the first six months of the year which, as a Brit, I would normally be quite chuffed about, however, I don't buy anything here in pounds so a more realistic figure would be the 5.9% drop in value measured in baht or the longer term view I prefer of 3.8% down in USD terms.

==================

Okay -- so what is the standard by which we should be measuring the value of a currency? the US$ ? gold? A basket of other currencies? It's all opinion and basically fiction. The ONLY standard is *confidence*, and that is what the UK politicians are robbing from Sterling with every day that passes without a clear vision of the future. The vote was to Leave -- please do it NOW! ....and watch sterling rebound

Why not tell us what you think a sensible time frame is for Brexit, perhaps start with, "select a PM" and take us through the key/major steps which takes us to final having severed all ties with those nasty Europeans, if indeed that's your end point?

Having been in business for 40 years - I would pull the plug today

[jpinx]

The issue is not "what would *you* do?" The issue is that the politicians are doing *nothing*

[HauptmannUK]

Your illustration is a good example of knee-jerk management. There will be no changes to the arrangements that company has untul the UK *actually* leaves the EU -- a process that will not start until article 50 is invoked, which will not happen until UK politicians stop running around like headless chickens.

No. Its a good example of responsible management. If I were a shareholder in this company right now I wouldn't want another penny of capital investment in the UK. Why take the risk?

In fact my guess is that this company will retain design/IPR in the UK and relocate QA/calib and packaging elsewhere in the EU. Irrespective of Article 50. That's at least 80 jobs gone. The only thing that will stop this, and other companies, moving jobs out of the UK is a very quick and unequivocal statement by the next PM that the UK will stay in the EEA.

Business is not interested in hearing about two years of 'negotiations'.

Maybe that management team needs some education in taking opportunities as they present themselves. A lot of contracts are for about 2 years so it would be perfectly possible to seize the moment. Unless, of course, they are being extra clever and using the UK vote as a good excuse to get out to a cheaper labour market and not take the blame for the move.

Almost no contracts in the specialised sensor market are for two years or less. Most automotive parts contracts are for 4 years or more. Aerospace can be much longer. And then there are the lead times, which can be 2 - 3 years.

Even in the most stable of economic times its a tricky business. The current situation will prove to be untenable for many businesses.

[GuestHouse]

Having been in business for 40 years - I would pull the plug today

Out of curiousity, what business ?

[GuestHouse]

The issue is not "what would *you* do?" The issue is that the politicians are doing *nothing*

I suspect they are doing more than you imagine.