Have Thai-US ties reached a 'new normal'?

[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Have Thai-US ties reached a 'new normal'?
Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- “Diplomacy is a great business,” said a diplomat from the world’s most powerful country to representatives at a Young Southeast Asia Leaders’ Initiative, held recently in Bangkok.

Whatever it meant, the remark was put to good use to improve Thai-US relations, albeit despite some hiccups. Such a perception has necessitated some late policy shifts on the part of the US towards Thailand since the end of September. A senior Thai foreign ministry official even declared that Thai-US relations have now reached a "new normal" after their much delayed 5th Strategic Dialogue, which was held in Bangkok two weeks ago.

Daniel Russel, Assistant State Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, left a better impression in Thailand this time around after his presentation. Judging from the joint statement issued after the dialogue, it was rich with symbolism with some tangible outcomes. Both sides agreed to meet and several meetings were planned, along with the implementation of the 2012 joint vision on Thai-US strategic relations.

Most importantly for this trip, there was a clear indication that bilateral ties have moved on with the "forward looking" agenda and normalisation after 19 months of stigmatisation. At least, the Thai side received that strong impression.

However, without an elected government - which will not come any time soon - Thai-US ties cannot go as far as they wish due to US legal constraints. Short of giving official recognition and a resumption of official assistance, the latest strategic dialogue actually signalled for all other US government agencies to begin engaging with Thailand. So far, only the US Defence Department has maintained close working ties with Thailand.

Reasons are many to explain the 'sudden' American turn-around and greater flexibility toward Thailand, without the past diplomatic bravado. Three major factors stood out. First of all, it was the American-led coalition's fight against extremists that once again placed Thailand back on the radar in Washington. The shooting in San Bernardino prompted the US to take a high profile in fight against the Islamic State, and after years of adversarial ties, the US and Russia are now collaborating on joint strategies to fight ISIS.

Within Southeast Asia, the US and the West continue to perceive the region as a second front in the battle against extremists and terrorists. The numbers of fighters joining ISIS from Southeast Asian countries has now passed one thousand — mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

To pursue the American-led coalition, the US needs Thailand's full security cooperation as part of its overall strategy. In the past, the US enjoyed a high-level of trust with the Thai military in any joint cooperation to fight against terrorism and other non-military threats. Such trust had all but evaporated since the power seizure last May. In 2011, cables released by WikiLeaks detailed Washington's cynicism about many aspects of Thai life and society. This soured Thai-US ties and stopped Thai bureaucrats from talking casually with their US counterparts. Indeed, ill feeling still lingers.

Since the Gulf War in 1990, every major security operation by US forces based in the Pacific involved Thai facilities at U-Tapao airbase and Sattahip navy base, which were shared to the maximum without any reluctance. However, Thailand was not in a mood to cooperate - and grant rights for surveillance flights to the US across the Indian Ocean in May, to monitor the number of irregular migrants stranded at sea. This was reflected the worsening relations with the US. If this attitude continued to persist, it would have had serious ramifications, especially to US interoperability capacity in the region.

Second, Thai-US relations obviously had much to do with the China factor. In the absence of normal bilateral transactions with the US since May 2014, China has enjoyed carte blanche uncontested opportunities to forge ahead with all round cooperation with Thailand. Beijing has wisely chosen to strengthen its defence and security ties with the Prayut regime. Other countries including Japan, Australia, India and South Korea have also benefitted from engaging with Thailand. Good personal ties at the top between Thailand and China have been put to good use in the post-coup period. Numerous government-to-government negotiations and transactions were made quickly without fuss and an increase in quantity — some of which would have been impossible if Thai-US ties remained strong. That helped explain why so many new Thai-China cooperation schemes have popped up.

Finally, the US rebalancing policy would not be complete without Thailand being part and parcel of this Asia-Pacific strategic blueprint. As the region's oldest ally, the US wants to ascertain that Thailand is not cropped out because of its unfavorable domestic conditions, as perceived by the US State Department. Washington mistakenly thought the Prayut leadership would not last over a year - like his predecessor, General Surayud Chulanond, after the 2006 coup. The US Embassy in Bangkok believed the recent coup was just another chapter of the country's vicious political circle. But it was not to be this time. The 2017 roadmap outlined by Prayut is here to stay. America's ongoing criticism of the military administration will not change a thing inside Thailand for the foreseeable future.

It must be noted that since US Ambassador Glyn Davies took up the position, the use of social media as a means of public diplomacy has been greatly reduced — a clear break from his predecessor. Davies prefers to use conventional public diplomacy that involves meeting and talking with stakeholders. Thailand wishes that the US would behave like France, Germany and Australia, which have engaged constructively in the country's reform process. These three countries' contributions were highlighted during the recent meeting between Davies and Deputy Prime Minister Pravit Wongsuwan.

Fortunately, the Obama administration wants to highlight diplomatic success with Asean, especially over Myanmar's road to democracy. At home, Obama is considered a loser in overall US foreign policy. Apart from plans to host a special US-Asean Summit in mid-February at the Annenberg Retreat at Sunnylands in California, the US president expressed a strong desire to return to Myanmar before his second term ends to meet all the key players. They include Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, U Thein Sein, Min Aung Hlaing and Thura Shwe Mann.

As part of his legacy with Asean, Obama decided early to attend the 4th Asean-US Summit and 11th East Asia Summit due to be held from September 6-8 next year in Laos, when Vientiane will be host, as the current Asean chair. Obama hopes that his visit will produce a similar impact in Laos as his visits to Myanmar.

In the final analysis, the message from Daniel's trip is succinct - the US would like to continue to work with Thailand despite all the shortcomings, including issues related to freedom of expression and freedom of assembly. Next year, a series of high-level talks are planned. The new year will start with Cobra Gold, the region's largest annual military exercise, which is due to run from February 9-19, and will be followed by the 5th Defence Strategic Dialogue in mid-2016, plus meetings on science and technology, trade and investment.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Have-Thai-US-ties-reached-a-new-normal-30275790.html

-- The Nation 2015-12-28

[TomJoad]

So does this mean no more selfies..?

[Chang_paarp]

Someone got a press release they could not resist reprinting. This pap is so far removed from reality it should be stored in the fiction section.

[alant]

So basically, it is OK Jack, the USA will support you no matter what as we need a pal in the area?

[Strangebrew]

We'll see how Thailand feel's when China decides to take Phucket as it's own property and build a military base there.

[oneday]

“Diplomacy is a great business,”

555

How about, "Diplomacy is the most polished BS in the world”

[tomross46]

If an American politician tells you he is coming to help. They only talk and do nothing. The US Army Corp of Engineers built highways from Sattahip to Udorn Thani, no to develop the infrastructure, but to carry bombs and POL to the RTAF bases used to bomb Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.

[FangFerang]

I believe there has been a lot of back channel activity that boils down to this:

US/EU: "We don't like you using slaves, but we like the money you help us make more than human rights. What we will do is complain in the news and with some sparky comments from diplomats, but we will keep importing."

Thailand: "Mai pen rai!"

[oxo1947]

We'll see how Thailand feel's when China decides to take Phucket as it's own property and build a military base there.

Wow your lucky---with just a few days to go , you just may have won "The Most Stupidest Post of the year" Award.

"when China decides to take Phucket and build a military base there."

Would you like to point out anywhere in the world that China has any military base outside of its own country. ???

As the answer is No Where (unlike your country) ,but I'll help you out next year China , along with 5 other countries (including the USA & Japan) will open a quick response navel outlet in Djibouti (horn of Africa) at the request , not only of that Country but of the United nations to wipe out the piracy in that area......

who knows from there (in your mind) maybe Phuket & Samui next......................

[sanuk711]

We'll see how Thailand feel's when China decides to take Phucket as it's own property and build a military base there.

Oh yes a military base---I do hope that it is tin foil you have in that paper bag that is covering your head.

[Plutojames88]

Luring the military Absolute power PM to America again may take such formal posturing.

We're it unfortunate that he met an untimely death there by way of assassins or accident it would be again , very much a diplomacy of American statements.

The reality is America kept Thailand on Tier 3 the lowest level of human rights grades.

America has made clear criticisms of its draconian LM laws and said no one should be jailed for expressing their views.

If Thais want to delude themselves it's maybe more convincing for their own stupidity to blindly go down their current path.

The stumbling will come internally .

The people will only take so much.

When push comes to shove the Americans won't support the Government .

It will be on the side of rebellion

[robblok]

Luring the military Absolute power PM to America again may take such formal posturing.

We're it unfortunate that he met an untimely death there by way of assassins or accident it would be again , very much a diplomacy of American statements.

The reality is America kept Thailand on Tier 3 the lowest level of human rights grades.

America has made clear criticisms of its draconian LM laws and said no one should be jailed for expressing their views.

If Thais want to delude themselves it's maybe more convincing for their own stupidity to blindly go down their current path.

The stumbling will come internally .

The people will only take so much.

When push comes to shove the Americans won't support the Government .

It will be on the side of rebellion

You are the one who is deluding himself, its all words, no action has been taken. Do you see any bans, or other financial stuff. Nope nothing just words.

[Srikcir]

USA foreign policy, like mnay superpowers, is like 50 Shades of Gray.

It depends on who, how, when and where with a mix of national politics.

Thailand's current foreign policy is simply Black or White. You ether understand "thainess" or you don't.

[Plutojames88]

Luring the military Absolute power PM to America again may take such formal posturing.

We're it unfortunate that he met an untimely death there by way of assassins or accident it would be again , very much a diplomacy of American statements.

The reality is America kept Thailand on Tier 3 the lowest level of human rights grades.

America has made clear criticisms of its draconian LM laws and said no one should be jailed for expressing their views.

If Thais want to delude themselves it's maybe more convincing for their own stupidity to blindly go down their current path.

The stumbling will come internally .

The people will only take so much.

When push comes to shove the Americans won't support the Government .

It will be on the side of rebellion

You are the one who is deluding himself, its all words, no action has been taken. Do you see any bans, or other financial stuff. Nope nothing just words.

You think the waiting game isn't a plan?

Even the exiled ex Pm Thaksin has suggested waiting.

CNN have given him a platform .

Slowly the military are thinking it is beyond punitive measures .

Much the same you might.?

Perhaps for now.

After all the Chinese influence is not desired.

However, the Europeans can invoke some hardships with Seafood bans.

And the internal trade pressures place the government with further unease.

The business down turns won't help Thailand.

And these new human rights abuses won't be tolerated for too long.

New York Times is writing them up.

It's gaining press.

The Americans appear to be all friendly.

It's just a ploy.

Watch .

The truth is Thailand military are just a passing ship in the night.

How they sink is a waiting game.

But icebergs are ahead.

And the delusion is thinking its smooth sailing ahead

[Usernames]

The shooting in San Bernardino prompted the US to take a high profile in fight against the Islamic State, and after years of adversarial ties, the US and Russia are now collaborating on joint strategies to fight ISIS.

Nope.

[smotherb]

We'll see how Thailand feel's when China decides to take Phucket as it's own property and build a military base there.

Wow your lucky---with just a few days to go , you just may have won "The Most Stupidest Post of the year" Award.

"when China decides to take Phucket and build a military base there."

Would you like to point out anywhere in the world that China has any military base outside of its own country. ???

As the answer is No Where (unlike your country) ,but I'll help you out next year China , along with 5 other countries (including the USA & Japan) will open a quick response navel outlet in Djibouti (horn of Africa) at the request , not only of that Country but of the United nations to wipe out the piracy in that area......

who knows from there (in your mind) maybe Phuket & Samui next......................

Well, always liking the devil’s advocate position; let's see.

Logistics facilities for Chinese naval vessels already exist in the middle-east—Oman, Yemen, and Djibouti. A base in the Seychelles is planned. And, let us not forget the facilities the Chinese have built in the Spratlys.

Of course, one could also argue the military hold China has over Tibet may fit the description. Remember, if your argument is Tibet, or the Spratlys, is Chinese territory; how easy would it be for China to claim Phuket?

Phuket, as you know has had ties with China trade for centuries and Phuket has one of the largest percentages of ethnic Chinese populations of an province in Thailand.

[WaiLai]

When was the last time you saw a "flash-point" between the USA and China? I can't remember one at all in my 66 years.

The USA bankrupted the former Soviet Union while China was trying to get it's act together to announce itself as the next "contender"

A contender needs money and legitimacy. Richard Nixon helped solve that problem and the USA/China game plan became a well scripted play.

The Americans are not a stupid capitalistic society but the most aggressive and violent of all.

The Chinese help finance the USA and it's goals by buying up the lions share of T-bills. Why? .. because they need an air breathing retail market for their stuff

The Chinese and USA game is going as planned and everyone is making serious coin from it.

Politics and news coverage of the same is just window dressing and subterfuge. The "big boys" are never distracted from their ultimate goal = market share

Regardless of who "cries foul" over the other one's posturing, huge amounts of money are being invested and profited from.

... and Thailand is being steered by a junta general and some cronies from BKK?

I have to give credit to the junta leader for visiting the USA in February in order to hustle more shrimp purchasing!

[Rancid]

Things are quite convoluted as we have the new silk road in play which the US despises as they aren't a part of it, and they don't want to see that type of economic cooperation between Europe, Russia and Asia.

So on one front we have the US trying to constrain Russia, using the stupid Europeans to impose economic sanctions that hurt their economies whilst US trade has actually increased. Duh.

On another we have China where the TPP is being used as a trade block against it that benefits US corporations and none of the dopey countries that have signed up for it.

Don't believe Thailand is in the TPP, but no doubt the US would like them to be so that Monsanto can enter the market and eventually own all the rice here. Thailand has been friendly with China as well, and that's a no no to the Empire.

In some regards maybe better for expats with the US pulling the strings again, but staying independent would probably be better for Thailand.

[Plutojames88]

The trouble is the Thais will shoot themselves in the foot.

All it will take is a group of 500 students at some point .

""Say the jailing of a Facebook like friend .""

And an organised by phone turn out...which escalates into thousands of every day folk joining.

A few police turned on when arrests are tried .

Soldiers dispatched and under a paranoid PM the order to fire is given.

And sixty are killed and 200 injured .

The genie would be out the bottle and thousands of reds hit Bangkok .

International condemnation and ultimately a request to stand down given to by US military as tens of thousands come out.

All that's needed first is the viral phone invites of students.

That's why these guys are so paranoid.

CIA is actively inside Thailand .

That's not a rumour but fact.

The place is a powder keg that could blow anytime

[than]

US has no friend, just interest......

[craigt3365]

Luring the military Absolute power PM to America again may take such formal posturing.

We're it unfortunate that he met an untimely death there by way of assassins or accident it would be again , very much a diplomacy of American statements.

The reality is America kept Thailand on Tier 3 the lowest level of human rights grades.

America has made clear criticisms of its draconian LM laws and said no one should be jailed for expressing their views.

If Thais want to delude themselves it's maybe more convincing for their own stupidity to blindly go down their current path.

The stumbling will come internally .

The people will only take so much.

When push comes to shove the Americans won't support the Government .

It will be on the side of rebellion

You are the one who is deluding himself, its all words, no action has been taken. Do you see any bans, or other financial stuff. Nope nothing just words.

You seem rather harsh with your criticism. The US is being vocal about this. And it's back by action. Saudi Arabia? We all know the reasons there...as does every other country in the world.

By law, the US has to change relations. It's called the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961. Cobra Gold was scaled back. And the new ambassador was formerly in North Korea. Sent here not to calm things down, as shown by his recent speeches. Only so much can be done.

http://www.voanews.com/content/us-scales-back-cobra-gold-war-games-in-thailand/2494750.html

The United States has confirmed it is scaling back a major annual defense exercise in Thailand, where Washington has criticized a coup by the country's military.

A spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok told VOA on Friday the so-called Cobra Gold 2015 exercise set for February will be "refocused and scaled down."

The statement said "in light of the current political situation, the U.S. government has increased its focus on non-lethal activities, such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief."

Thailand doesn't get much financial aid from the US:

http://us-foreign-aid.insidegov.com/q/174/1590/How-much-money-does-the-U-S-give-to-Thailand

[Thaidream]

Thailand will always bend with the wind as the saying goes. However, long term it will stay in the American Sphere of influence due to historical ties as well as the need to protect itself from an encroaching Chinese horde. The Chinese goal is to continue to find resources such as food and oil to feed its population. Without these- the people become restless and a threat to the Communist Party. Thailand knows this and has always been smart enough to play America against the newer threat. America needs Thailand for its geographical position and its ability to use Thai airbases in a crisis or emergency. All the other rhetoric is just that. Actually with the General in power it makes the American's more secure- they just can't say it publicly.

[sanukjim]

OK This "New Normal" properly still means The US smiles and does not write or say anything too bad about LOS even though officially the thoughts and ideas are openly discussed then LOS will continue to borrow money tr an in-stress in order for LOS to buy The US old and new military hardware..Oh yes we are smiling and you keep buying.

[EnglishJohn]

Luring the military Absolute power PM to America again may take such formal posturing.

We're it unfortunate that he met an untimely death there by way of assassins or accident it would be again , very much a diplomacy of American statements.

The reality is America kept Thailand on Tier 3 the lowest level of human rights grades.

America has made clear criticisms of its draconian LM laws and said no one should be jailed for expressing their views.

If Thais want to delude themselves it's maybe more convincing for their own stupidity to blindly go down their current path.

The stumbling will come internally .

The people will only take so much.

When push comes to shove the Americans won't support the Government .

It will be on the side of rebellion

Another red-shirt nutter predicting the 'people's uprising'.

It is always amusing when someone who is clearly right at the bottom of the pile thinks they are competent to call someone else stupid.

Hopefully someone will see your threats against the PM and you can join the LM offenders for a chat. Your red-shirt character is showing through

[LomSak27]

The Nation prints up a 90% imaginary Op/ed piece that mirrors what they would -desperately - wish reality to be. Then the Troll Team swings into action with its deflections, confusion, tangents and other assorted posting devices. Thank the heavens New Years Holiday Break is right around the corner.

Sanukjim, if the US has agreed to not write or say anything to bad about Thailand then how do you explain last weeks slavery articles? These made it both to major newspapers and minor, a real saturation media event. The ones the Thai media tried to ignore for 4 days then tried to spin with their own releases of information. Did the US news Media not get the directives for better relations? ... heh.

Fang Ferang The US doesn't like slaves but the US likes money so business as usual - Ok got that but how does that explain the US legal suits against US purchasers of Thai products made by slaves?, and US Consumer group pressuring Costco and AG to buy Shrimp from another source ?

You have anything, even a gnat hair of evidence to back up your, uh, work

Have a good four day holiday weekend

[2fishin2]

Luring the military Absolute power PM to America again may take such formal posturing.

We're it unfortunate that he met an untimely death there by way of assassins or accident it would be again , very much a diplomacy of American statements.

The reality is America kept Thailand on Tier 3 the lowest level of human rights grades.

America has made clear criticisms of its draconian LM laws and said no one should be jailed for expressing their views.

If Thais want to delude themselves it's maybe more convincing for their own stupidity to blindly go down their current path.

The stumbling will come internally .

The people will only take so much.

When push comes to shove the Americans won't support the Government .

It will be on the side of rebellion

You are the one who is deluding himself, its all words, no action has been taken. Do you see any bans, or other financial stuff. Nope nothing just words.

The US cut $4.7 million in military aid. Almost half of its aid budget for Thailand. Also, both springtime military exercises have been scaled way back. So you are incorrect in your statements.

I imagine there has also been more things cut but, probably intangible and therefore wont speculate about it.

The US support is on the side of democracy and not a military Junta.

[jayboy]

There will never be a normal relationship with the civilised world until there is a legitimate government and legitimate leader in place - backed by the democratic endorsement of the Thai people in a fairly conducted general election.

This is what a legitimate leader looks like.

https://youtu.be/KyRYstBBJKs

No names no pack drill but I can think of someone who would bounce backwards down Downing Street on his bottom to get one tenth of this kind of recognition.