New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[mopar71]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Oh good - another poster saying that only the uneducated would vote for Brexit, only this time its a young Brit that the poster talked to about the subject who expressed this view .

But I agree with the rest of your post. Its only binding if the vote is to remain.

First of all, I was not expressing my opinion, I was relaying one. So go roll your eyes someplace else. This topic is all over the news and it came up in a discussion. so I decided to float it by here for feedback.

Generally, whenever I see some political comment claiming only uneducated people support something I am sure it is B.S. Of course, that"only the uneducated" view is almost exclusively used by the Left so any clear-thinking person would smell it for what it is.

What I took the young Brit's comment to mean was that a lot of people across the spectrum want out, it is just the "less educated" want it faster and the "more educated" realize that it needs to take time.

As brewsterbudgen commented above, it would take years to implement anyway, so there would be no rushing in.

[wooloomooloo]

Only for Brits with Brain:

I stopped reading after the totally patronising and continuing theme of the above quote.

[chiang mai]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Oh good - another poster saying that only the uneducated would vote for Brexit, only this time its a young Brit that the poster talked to about the subject who expressed this view .

But I agree with the rest of your post. Its only binding if the vote is to remain.

Based on some of the responses raised in this thread he may have a point!

[dick dasterdly]

Only for Brits with Brain:

Brexit

It's rare to see historic moments coming, because it's impossible to know how history will change and what course it will run. But sometimes you do see it. Sometimes you know something is about to happen that has the potential to change our world.

If Britain is clever, it will remain a member of the EU, because it will recognise that the future of the west is at stake.

This vote is about preserving Europe's competitiveness in times of change and struggle between world powers. It's about nothing less than the future of the peace project started in 1946 by erstwhile enemy nations on a devastated continent, ("Let Europe arise!" as Churchill put it). It is a project that has unified western Europe for seven decades.

The words are becoming increasingly heated. EU opponents are comparing Brussels to Hitler and producing dangerously false statistics, while the dominant tone among EU supporters is pathos. For once, the latter is justified, because fundamental principles are at stake.

Britain is a bridge between Europe and the US. If Britain leaves the EU on this side of the Atlantic while Donald Trump becomes president on the other, then seemingly permanent alliances will wobble, and a weakened Europe would end up alone, helpless amid myriad global crises.

If the right-wing populists grow stronger, because Europe suddenly weakens and shrinks just as they are on the rise, what will remain of the ideal of tolerant and progressive cooperation that defines the west?

So if Britain is clever, it will realise that it is not a world power on its own, that it will lose much with a yes to Brexit on June 23, and gain nothing but a brief moment of pride.

If it votes to leave because a disproportionately high proportion of older and less well-educated British want it so passionately, Germany and the rest of Europe will have to accept that today's EU is dysfunctional and unattractive. The EU should then mourn the loss of departed Britain and learn from it, and it should cease giving humiliating gifts to those who have left and develop some resolution.

Or else, hopefully, it will be the other way round: Should the British vote against Brexit, perhaps by 55% or 60% rather than 50.1%, then that would be a mandate. Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail.

The day after the vote, the British should understand that they themselves helped create this detested Europe that they were so close to leaving, and start building a better one.

Another poster arguing that only the stupid and uneducated would vote to leave .

Are most Brits that insecure that they fall for this line of argument?

[wooloomooloo]

What I took the young Brit's comment to mean was that a lot of people across the spectrum want out, it is just the "less educated" want it faster and the "more educated" realize that it needs to take time.

What timescales? Why not now? You're now in the realms of offering your own opinion. Strange angle, mopar71.

Also, what's your own personal opinion? I'm certain you can think for yourself.

[mopar71]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Oh good - another poster saying that only the uneducated would vote for Brexit, only this time its a young Brit that the poster talked to about the subject who expressed this view .

But I agree with the rest of your post. Its only binding if the vote is to remain.

So mopar71 has immediately determined that his new friend is intelligent? Amazing ability you have there, mopar71.

Well, it didn't take long to determine that you and Dasterdly aren't among the sharpest tools in the shed. Both not comprehending what I wrote. Too bad the three of us aren't sitting in a bar right now and I could explain it to you slowly. No time - or interest - to hold your hands and walk you through it now though.

Edited June 11, 2016 by mopar71

[wooloomooloo]

It's not Team Brexit's fault. Dodgy Dave called the referendum. Anyway, the markets will stabilise pretty much straight after the referendum whether it's in or out.

No doubt had somebody suggested it was Cameron's fault for calling the referendum, some oddball would argue that it was not his fault but that of his parents for having him. You see how weird your argument sounds now!

And yes, markets will stabilise after the referendum, at some point in the future, later more than sooner we are told repeatedly.

I'm no oddball and I didn't raise an argument. I merely referred to your statement that the volatility of sterling is, as you say, the fault of Team Brexit.

How is this exactly?

Seeing as you're still online, could you please kindly afford me the courtesy of a response to the above point, Chiang Mai. I'm certain you're not dodging a valid point now, are you?

[dick dasterdly]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Oh good - another poster saying that only the uneducated would vote for Brexit, only this time its a young Brit that the poster talked to about the subject who expressed this view .

But I agree with the rest of your post. Its only binding if the vote is to remain.

Based on some of the responses raised in this thread he may have a point!

Or more importantly - its only binding if the vote is to remain.

[wooloomooloo]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Oh good - another poster saying that only the uneducated would vote for Brexit, only this time its a young Brit that the poster talked to about the subject who expressed this view .

But I agree with the rest of your post. Its only binding if the vote is to remain.

So mopar71 has immediately determined that his new friend is intelligent? Amazing ability you have there, mopar71.

Well, it didn't take long to determine that you and Dasterdly aren't among the sharpest tools in the shed. Both not comprehending what I wrote. Too bad the three of us aren't sitting in a bar right now and I could explain it to you slowly. No time - or interest - to hold your hands and walk you through it now though.

Educate me, mopar71. What is your opinion? Forget about your new best buddy who is educated.

Timelines? When is best to get out and under what conditions?

Short, sharp and succinct response is most appreciated and not necessary to walk me through.

Three short bullet points with your response is fine.

[dick dasterdly]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Oh good - another poster saying that only the uneducated would vote for Brexit, only this time its a young Brit that the poster talked to about the subject who expressed this view .

But I agree with the rest of your post. Its only binding if the vote is to remain.

First of all, I was not expressing my opinion, I was relaying one. So go roll your eyes someplace else. This topic is all over the news and it came up in a discussion. so I decided to float it by here for feedback.

Generally, whenever I see some political comment claiming only uneducated people support something I am sure it is B.S. Of course, that"only the uneducated" view is almost exclusively used by the Left so any clear-thinking person would smell it for what it is.

What I took the young Brit's comment to mean was that a lot of people across the spectrum want out, it is just the "less educated" want it faster and the "more educated" realize that it needs to take time.

As brewsterbudgen commented above, it would take years to implement anyway, so there would be no rushing in.

Go away, you'e been sussed.

[dick dasterdly]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Oh good - another poster saying that only the uneducated would vote for Brexit, only this time its a young Brit that the poster talked to about the subject who expressed this view .

But I agree with the rest of your post. Its only binding if the vote is to remain.

So mopar71 has immediately determined that his new friend is intelligent? Amazing ability you have there, mopar71.

Well, it didn't take long to determine that you and Dasterdly aren't among the sharpest tools in the shed. Both not comprehending what I wrote. Too bad the three of us aren't sitting in a bar right now and I could explain it to you slowly. No time - or interest - to hold your hands and walk you through it now though.

As I said before, go away - you're not bright enough to be throwing insults.

[mopar71]

What I took the young Brit's comment to mean was that a lot of people across the spectrum want out, it is just the "less educated" want it faster and the "more educated" realize that it needs to take time.

What timescales? Why not now? You're now in the realms of offering your own opinion. Strange angle, mopar71.

Also, what's your own personal opinion? I'm certain you can think for yourself.

My personal opinion is that this is an issue that will affect Brits in ways that I as a non-Brit will never be able to fully appreciate. Sure, I can read some articles and make a list of pros and cons and sound like I know what I am talking about. But much like non-Americans inserting their opinions about American politics, I wouldn't really know what I'm talking about. I wouldn't presume to tell any Brit how they should vote on the referendum.

That said, I want what is best for the UK, a strong, successful UK. I grew up in a time when the UK was our best ally, cousins across the pond. Yes, Dick van Dyke framed in my mind what Brits really sound like. In history class it was clear who the dominant influence in American culture was. I imagine nowadays that role is greatly downplayed.

So whichever way the vote goes, I hope it ends up the right one.

[mopar71]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

What reasoning did your newly found friend proffer as to why the UK must leave the EU but just not now? And any timings as to when the UK should leave and under what conditions?

This should be interesting.

I can't remember all of his points but part of it was concern over what would happen to the pound, how many banks and other businesses with EU headquarters in London would need to move them to the actual EU and how much that would cost in jobs.

[chiang mai]

Seeing as you're still online, could you please kindly afford me the courtesy of a response to the above point, Chiang Mai. I'm certain you're not dodging a valid point now, are you?

I don't feel like playing the baiting game with you wooloo and I know you and me are never going to debate any topic. So go read the thread for any answers you might want and/or go find somebody else to bait and then flame. You and me are done in this thread.

Edited June 11, 2016 by chiang mai

[wooloomooloo]

Thanks, mopar71, for your succinct response. Good luck to you too.

Just awaiting Chiang Mai's response as to how it's Team Brexit's fault for the volatility of sterling. Don't reckon an answer will be forthcoming somehow. Hit and run as usual.

Anyway, my wife and I will be returning to the UK next week. Polling cards are sitting on the kitchen sideboard awaiting independence day.

[dick dasterdly]

What I took the young Brit's comment to mean was that a lot of people across the spectrum want out, it is just the "less educated" want it faster and the "more educated" realize that it needs to take time.

What timescales? Why not now? You're now in the realms of offering your own opinion. Strange angle, mopar71.

Also, what's your own personal opinion? I'm certain you can think for yourself.

My personal opinion is that this is an issue that will affect Brits in ways that I as a non-Brit will never be able to fully appreciate. Sure, I can read some articles and make a list of pros and cons and sound like I know what I am talking about. But much like non-Americans inserting their opinions about American politics, I wouldn't really know what I'm talking about. I wouldn't presume to tell any Brit how they should vote on the referendum.

That said, I want what is best for the UK, a strong, successful UK. I grew up in a time when the UK was our best ally, cousins across the pond. Yes, Dick van Dyke framed in my mind what Brits really sound like. In history class it was clear who the dominant influence in American culture was. I imagine nowadays that role is greatly downplayed.

So whichever way the vote goes, I hope it ends up the right one.

Yes I'm rolling my eyes again...But at least you've been honest and admitted that you're an American - and hope that we make 'the right choice'.

[wooloomooloo]

I don't feel like playing the baiting game with you wooloo and I know you and me are never going to debate any topic. So go read the thread for any answers you might want and/or go find somebody else to bait and then flame. You and me are done in this thread.

Simple question and can be answered in one sentence. Nothing to do with baiting, flaming or us not seeing eye to eye.

Why is it Team Brexit's fault for the volatility of sterling? You made the emphatic statement that indeed it was with no detailed reasoning.

You can't answer, can you?

Edit: Chiang Mai has bottled a simple question in response to his above assertion and is hiding behind the bait and flame ruse. I can see you now for who you truly are. Good luck and all the best, Chiang Mai.

Edited June 11, 2016 by wooloomooloo

[RuamRudy]

Only for Brits with Brain:

Brexit

It's rare to see historic moments coming, because it's impossible to know how history will change and what course it will run. But sometimes you do see it. Sometimes you know something is about to happen that has the potential to change our world.

If Britain is clever, it will remain a member of the EU, because it will recognise that the future of the west is at stake.

This vote is about preserving Europe's competitiveness in times of change and struggle between world powers. It's about nothing less than the future of the peace project started in 1946 by erstwhile enemy nations on a devastated continent, ("Let Europe arise!" as Churchill put it). It is a project that has unified western Europe for seven decades.

The words are becoming increasingly heated. EU opponents are comparing Brussels to Hitler and producing dangerously false statistics, while the dominant tone among EU supporters is pathos. For once, the latter is justified, because fundamental principles are at stake.

Britain is a bridge between Europe and the US. If Britain leaves the EU on this side of the Atlantic while Donald Trump becomes president on the other, then seemingly permanent alliances will wobble, and a weakened Europe would end up alone, helpless amid myriad global crises.

If the right-wing populists grow stronger, because Europe suddenly weakens and shrinks just as they are on the rise, what will remain of the ideal of tolerant and progressive cooperation that defines the west?

So if Britain is clever, it will realise that it is not a world power on its own, that it will lose much with a yes to Brexit on June 23, and gain nothing but a brief moment of pride.

If it votes to leave because a disproportionately high proportion of older and less well-educated British want it so passionately, Germany and the rest of Europe will have to accept that today's EU is dysfunctional and unattractive. The EU should then mourn the loss of departed Britain and learn from it, and it should cease giving humiliating gifts to those who have left and develop some resolution.

Or else, hopefully, it will be the other way round: Should the British vote against Brexit, perhaps by 55% or 60% rather than 50.1%, then that would be a mandate. Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail.

The day after the vote, the British should understand that they themselves helped create this detested Europe that they were so close to leaving, and start building a better one.

"Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail."

It is almost as if this was written by an agent provocateur.

[allanos]

I just looked at yahoo finance for the USD against the GBP for the last three months a fluctuation of about 1.3 pence from about 70.4 to 69.1 seems stable to me, or is 1p a big jump over 3 months.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDGBP=X&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

It will be intresting to see how it goes in the next 2 weeks

The Pound is down about 4 cents since Tuesday of this week and markets are now closed for the weekend, 4 cents in a week is a lot. Because the Thai banks are closed we wont know until Monday what GBP/THB looks like other than via Reuters which is not representative, the problem will be that this is just the start, potentially. Several million UK expat pensioners and their families just got very nervous whilst casual tourists couldn't care a jot!

All currency exchange rates fluctuate, Thaiwaine, it is the nature of the beast. A better gauge is to compare closing prices over a desired period.

My reading of the currency charts is not the same as Chiang Mai's. The pound is down less than 3c against the USD since Tuesday. However, it is down

less than 2c in the past month, and less than 1c in the last three months. One swallow does not make a summer. So we "headlined" that the pound

dropped yesterday, and Brexit must be the issue!

Let me try to put things into a better perspective, especially for those who appear to subscribe to "Project Fear".

Yesterday, the pound closed weaker against the US Dollar. So did the Euro! So did the Aussie Dollar, among many others!

What is noteworthy, and will have some kind of correlation, is a review of the metrics of the important stock exchanges, at their close.

DOW (US) Down 0.67%

NASDAQ (US) Down 1.29%

FTSE (UK) Down 1.86% EU

CAC 40 (French) Down 2.24% EU

DAX (Germany) Down 2.52% EU

It would seem that their was more confidence in the British (UK) economy yesterday that in the two other major EU economies!

For further perspective, EVERY stock market in the world was down yesterday, except for Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Tehran (Persia).

I would reiterate what I have said many times before when it comes to currency exchange rate movements. They will always fluctuate and

can indeed be moved by an impactful event, but they tend to settle down, often much more quickly than the lay person would understand.

As proof of this I would point to the United States' Non-Farm Payroll metrics, released on the first Friday of each month. Around 30 minutes

before, during, and about 30 minutes after these figures are released , the markets go wild - not only currency markets, but, for example,

hard commodities' markets. Prior and subsequent to the durations I have mentioned above, the markets are extremely settled.

[dick dasterdly]

Chiang mai - one of those things.

You think I'm not the 'sharpest tool in the drawer' (or words to that effect), and I think you're only posting to support your desired outcome.

We can both have no respect for each other ,

[allanos]

Only for Brits with Brain:

Brexit

It's rare to see historic moments coming, because it's impossible to know how history will change and what course it will run. But sometimes you do see it. Sometimes you know something is about to happen that has the potential to change our world.

If Britain is clever, it will remain a member of the EU, because it will recognise that the future of the west is at stake.

This vote is about preserving Europe's competitiveness in times of change and struggle between world powers. It's about nothing less than the future of the peace project started in 1946 by erstwhile enemy nations on a devastated continent, ("Let Europe arise!" as Churchill put it). It is a project that has unified western Europe for seven decades.

The words are becoming increasingly heated. EU opponents are comparing Brussels to Hitler and producing dangerously false statistics, while the dominant tone among EU supporters is pathos. For once, the latter is justified, because fundamental principles are at stake.

Britain is a bridge between Europe and the US. If Britain leaves the EU on this side of the Atlantic while Donald Trump becomes president on the other, then seemingly permanent alliances will wobble, and a weakened Europe would end up alone, helpless amid myriad global crises.

If the right-wing populists grow stronger, because Europe suddenly weakens and shrinks just as they are on the rise, what will remain of the ideal of tolerant and progressive cooperation that defines the west?

So if Britain is clever, it will realise that it is not a world power on its own, that it will lose much with a yes to Brexit on June 23, and gain nothing but a brief moment of pride.

If it votes to leave because a disproportionately high proportion of older and less well-educated British want it so passionately, Germany and the rest of Europe will have to accept that today's EU is dysfunctional and unattractive. The EU should then mourn the loss of departed Britain and learn from it, and it should cease giving humiliating gifts to those who have left and develop some resolution.

Or else, hopefully, it will be the other way round: Should the British vote against Brexit, perhaps by 55% or 60% rather than 50.1%, then that would be a mandate. Then the British should stop doing the things that have irritated the rest of Europe for years: special requests, self-pity and wretched haggling over every last detail.

The day after the vote, the British should understand that they themselves helped create this detested Europe that they were so close to leaving, and start building a better one.

It is well known that Germany does not want the United Kingdom to exit the European Union, but it is obvious that it is only looking to how its best

interests may be served. Apart from having a somewhat like-minded "colleague" alongside it in the EU, it is also looking at the additional demands

which will be made upon the German fiscus once Britain's net funding falls away following a Brexit.

There is also the looming possibility that the EU will want to set up a "reserve", to fund European Union banks which are in a parlous state. Italy and

Greek banks are the most obvious recipients of any demands made on this fund, but there are likely to be others. Germany's fear is that it will again

have to be the major contributor to such a fund, and, in effect, will be guarantor of last resort to the wobbling banks of the EU.

So let's not worry too much about German self-interest at the moment; let's look to Britain's.

[chiang mai]

The Pound is down about 4 cents since Tuesday of this week and markets are now closed for the weekend, 4 cents in a week is a lot. Because the Thai banks are closed we wont know until Monday what GBP/THB looks like other than via Reuters which is not representative, the problem will be that this is just the start, potentially. Several million UK expat pensioners and their families just got very nervous whilst casual tourists couldn't care a jot!

All currency exchange rates fluctuate, Thaiwaine, it is the nature of the beast. A better gauge is to compare closing prices over a desired period.

My reading of the currency charts is not the same as Chiang Mai's. The pound is down less than 3c against the USD since Tuesday. However, it is down

less than 2c in the past month, and less than 1c in the last three months. One swallow does not make a summer. So we "headlined" that the pound

dropped yesterday, and Brexit must be the issue!

Let me try to put things into a better perspective, especially for those who appear to subscribe to "Project Fear".

Yesterday, the pound closed weaker against the US Dollar. So did the Euro! So did the Aussie Dollar, among many others!

What is noteworthy, and will have some kind of correlation, is a review of the metrics of the important stock exchanges, at their close.

DOW (US) Down 0.67%

NASDAQ (US) Down 1.29%

FTSE (UK) Down 1.86% EU

CAC 40 (French) Down 2.24% EU

DAX (Germany) Down 2.52% EU

It would seem that their was more confidence in the British (UK) economy yesterday that in the two other major EU economies!

For further perspective, EVERY stock market in the world was down yesterday, except for Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Tehran (Persia).

I would reiterate what I have said many times before when it comes to currency exchange rate movements. They will always fluctuate and

can indeed be moved by an impactful event, but they tend to settle down, often much more quickly than the lay person would understand.

As proof of this I would point to the United States' Non-Farm Payroll metrics, released on the first Friday of each month. Around 30 minutes

before, during, and about 30 minutes after these figures are released , the markets go wild - not only currency markets, but, for example,

hard commodities' markets. Prior and subsequent to the durations I have mentioned above, the markets are extremely settled.

One month two month or three months is not really relevant, typically in Forex the 180 Moving Average (MA) is what best determines trend. Using the 180 day MA sees the pair start at 1.51 in December and finish at 1.42 today.

[wooloomooloo]

Throw in the lazy Spanish and Portuguese economies, allanos. Though, reading between the lines, I'm sure they're included in your profile.

[dick dasterdly]

The Pound is down about 4 cents since Tuesday of this week and markets are now closed for the weekend, 4 cents in a week is a lot. Because the Thai banks are closed we wont know until Monday what GBP/THB looks like other than via Reuters which is not representative, the problem will be that this is just the start, potentially. Several million UK expat pensioners and their families just got very nervous whilst casual tourists couldn't care a jot!

All currency exchange rates fluctuate, Thaiwaine, it is the nature of the beast. A better gauge is to compare closing prices over a desired period.

My reading of the currency charts is not the same as Chiang Mai's. The pound is down less than 3c against the USD since Tuesday. However, it is down

less than 2c in the past month, and less than 1c in the last three months. One swallow does not make a summer. So we "headlined" that the pound

dropped yesterday, and Brexit must be the issue!

Let me try to put things into a better perspective, especially for those who appear to subscribe to "Project Fear".

Yesterday, the pound closed weaker against the US Dollar. So did the Euro! So did the Aussie Dollar, among many others!

What is noteworthy, and will have some kind of correlation, is a review of the metrics of the important stock exchanges, at their close.

DOW (US) Down 0.67%

NASDAQ (US) Down 1.29%

FTSE (UK) Down 1.86% EU

CAC 40 (French) Down 2.24% EU

DAX (Germany) Down 2.52% EU

It would seem that their was more confidence in the British (UK) economy yesterday that in the two other major EU economies!

For further perspective, EVERY stock market in the world was down yesterday, except for Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Tehran (Persia).

I would reiterate what I have said many times before when it comes to currency exchange rate movements. They will always fluctuate and

can indeed be moved by an impactful event, but they tend to settle down, often much more quickly than the lay person would understand.

As proof of this I would point to the United States' Non-Farm Payroll metrics, released on the first Friday of each month. Around 30 minutes

before, during, and about 30 minutes after these figures are released , the markets go wild - not only currency markets, but, for example,

hard commodities' markets. Prior and subsequent to the durations I have mentioned above, the markets are extremely settled.

One month two month or three months is not really relevant, typically in Forex the 180 Moving Average (MA) is what best determines trend. Using the 180 day MA sees the pair start at 1.51 in December and finish at 1.42 today.

Yes, let's select a period you'd prefer.

[wooloomooloo]

Fair play to Chiang Mai. He always stands his ground if nothing else.

In fact, he could argue for England. We need Chiang Mai on the Brexit side.

Edited June 11, 2016 by wooloomooloo

[dick dasterdly]

Fair play to Chiang Mai. He always stands his ground if nothing else.

In fact, he could argue for England. We need Chiang Mai on the Brexit side.

We don't. Anybody that 'likes' posts saying that other posters are 'not the sharpest knife in the drawer' when they have only put forward their valid opinions - needs to be reminded of this again an again by pulling him up on every post.

[allanos]

The Pound is down about 4 cents since Tuesday of this week and markets are now closed for the weekend, 4 cents in a week is a lot. Because the Thai banks are closed we wont know until Monday what GBP/THB looks like other than via Reuters which is not representative, the problem will be that this is just the start, potentially. Several million UK expat pensioners and their families just got very nervous whilst casual tourists couldn't care a jot!

All currency exchange rates fluctuate, Thaiwaine, it is the nature of the beast. A better gauge is to compare closing prices over a desired period.

My reading of the currency charts is not the same as Chiang Mai's. The pound is down less than 3c against the USD since Tuesday. However, it is down

less than 2c in the past month, and less than 1c in the last three months. One swallow does not make a summer. So we "headlined" that the pound

dropped yesterday, and Brexit must be the issue!

Let me try to put things into a better perspective, especially for those who appear to subscribe to "Project Fear".

Yesterday, the pound closed weaker against the US Dollar. So did the Euro! So did the Aussie Dollar, among many others!

What is noteworthy, and will have some kind of correlation, is a review of the metrics of the important stock exchanges, at their close.

DOW (US) Down 0.67%

NASDAQ (US) Down 1.29%

FTSE (UK) Down 1.86% EU

CAC 40 (French) Down 2.24% EU

DAX (Germany) Down 2.52% EU

It would seem that their was more confidence in the British (UK) economy yesterday that in the two other major EU economies!

For further perspective, EVERY stock market in the world was down yesterday, except for Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Tehran (Persia).

I would reiterate what I have said many times before when it comes to currency exchange rate movements. They will always fluctuate and

can indeed be moved by an impactful event, but they tend to settle down, often much more quickly than the lay person would understand.

As proof of this I would point to the United States' Non-Farm Payroll metrics, released on the first Friday of each month. Around 30 minutes

before, during, and about 30 minutes after these figures are released , the markets go wild - not only currency markets, but, for example,

hard commodities' markets. Prior and subsequent to the durations I have mentioned above, the markets are extremely settled.

One month two month or three months is not really relevant, typically in Forex the 180 Moving Average (MA) is what best determines trend. Using the 180 day MA sees the pair start at 1.51 in December and finish at 1.42 today.

The Moving Average is a lagging indicator.

It does not "determine" trend, it follows and reflects THE AVERAGE of what has gone before.

It is in no way relevant to this discussion, and I am not sure why you have introduced it. Go back to Google, please, and find something

which is more apt to the post.

[nontabury]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Yes the referendum is not binding. It will take around 2 years to negotiate a Brexit and then it would need to be voted on by parliament. If there is no majority we remain. More likely, is that following the Brexit negotiations, a new reform package on more favourable terms will be cobbled together and a 2nd referendum will be held.

You could be right. Similar to votes taken in the Irish republic and France. So much for democracy.

[chiang mai]

Chiang mai - one of those things.

You think I'm not the 'sharpest tool in the drawer' (or words to that effect), and I think you're only posting to support your desired outcome.

We can both have no respect for each other ,

I have no view about whether you are or aren't those things, I have never sought to form an opinion nor found the need to determine what you are or are not intellectually, the notion has never crossed my mind. But I do have related views of others.

As for my desired outcome: genuinely came here looking for input, got accused of being biased, formed a view that Remain arguments make sense, decided Brexit had no substantial argument other than nostalgia and they have no economics case, raised unresponsive challenges to the financial case so gave up. Have voted already in favour of Remain, continue to try to understand if I might be wrong and why but am only met with no valid argument, fabrication of fact, word games and baiting/flame. It's going to be tough to try and make me change my views on the voting.

[wooloomooloo]

I met a young Brit the other day, recently arrived from the UK. To paraphrase, he was saying that yes, generally those with less education were for Brexit but that the educated against Brexit still believe that in the long run the UK must leave the EU. Just not now.

He also said that the referendum is non-binding so no matter the result the gov't won't be required to act upon it.

Is this more or less the view from Brits here?

Yes the referendum is not binding. It will take around 2 years to negotiate a Brexit and then it would need to be voted on by parliament. If there is no majority we remain. More likely, is that following the Brexit negotiations, a new reform package on more favourable terms will be cobbled together and a 2nd referendum will be held.

You could be right. Similar to votes taken in the Irish republic and France. So much for democracy.

If the Tories ignore the electorate on a leave vote then I believe that there will be severe political turbulence in the near future. Think poll tax, just worse.