Is the Thai economy collapsing?

[Asiantravel]

In the Post, one bank just slashed it's growth estimate of new car loans from 15% to 3-5% for 2016. Huge drop.

Does that mean a corresponding increase in shady deal loans from the sharks? even more desperate

A person would have to have a screw loose to get a loan shark loan on a new car, it just doesn't happen I'm sure.

I am extrapolating and assuming the next phase will be an increase in the purchase of second hand vehicles from what I can see as an enormous glut of pickup trucks hitting the market as incomes are gradually eroded.Just as an example sugar prices have increased by 20% so disposable incomes are being continually squeezed.

I can't see many farmers even having an appetite to purchase a new car and perhaps the banks will simultaneously not have much of an appetite to grant a loan even on a second-hand car if they see farming incomes are being squeezed. That's why I suggested they will go to a loan shark to purchase their second-hand vehicles.

[thaibeachlovers]

I'm loading my hidden underground bunker with sacks of rice, flour and candles. You can keep your gold.

You forgot weapons. Lots and lots of weapons and amunition.

TH

Human nature at work. Don't forget a flush toilet as well.

Do try and keep up . One would use a composting toilet in a bunker.

[thaibeachlovers]

In the Post, one bank just slashed it's growth estimate of new car loans from 15% to 3-5% for 2016. Huge drop.

Does that mean a corresponding increase in shady deal loans from the sharks? even more desperate

A person would have to have a screw loose to get a loan shark loan on a new car, it just doesn't happen I'm sure.

I am extrapolating and assuming the next phase will be an increase in the purchase of second hand vehicles from what I can see as an enormous glut of pickup trucks hitting the market as incomes are gradually eroded.Just as an example sugar prices have increased by 20% so disposable incomes are being continually squeezed.

I can't see many farmers even having an appetite to purchase a new car and perhaps the banks will simultaneously not have much of an appetite to grant a loan even on a second-hand car if they see farming incomes are being squeezed. That's why I suggested they will go to a loan shark to purchase their second-hand vehicles.

sugar prices have increased by 20% so disposable incomes are being continually squeezed.

If Thais stopped eating so much sugar that would be a very good thing. Many Thais are overweight or even obese now due to poor diet. Look in any shop and it's full of sugar loaded snack food.

Unfortunately, sugar is as cheap as dirt, even if it increased by 20%.

[mfd101]

Um, and where do we think the sugar whose price has just gone up by 20% (if it has) comes from?

[elgordo38]

I'm loading my hidden underground bunker with sacks of rice, flour and candles. You can keep your gold.

You forgot weapons. Lots and lots of weapons and amunition.

TH

Human nature at work. Don't forget a flush toilet as well.

Do try and keep up . One would use a composting toilet in a bunker.

Yeah I guess your right your friendly banker would definitely extend you a toilet loan just before the world collapses. After a couple of months in your bunker you may wish that you did not join the rest of us in the last great farewell party.

[Asiantravel]

Um, and where do we think the sugar whose price has just gone up by 20% (if it has) comes from?

Drought hits Thai sugar, next year's crop dying

" International prices may have rallied but Thai farmers are reaping no benefits. Prasert and other sugar farmers in the central Thai province of Ratchaburi say they have lost 20-30 percent of their output this year due to the drought. "

DEBTS RISE

" Of 400 farmers that sell their harvest to Prasong's refinery, 30 have for the first time failed to repay loans administered by the refinery for the crop year.

They are part of a growing number of Thailand's rural population struggling with debt. Most are rice farmers, who were hit hard when the military seized power in 2014 and ended generous subsidies.

The irony for some in Ratchaburi is that they have taken a double hit - they were encouraged to convert to sugar from rice as the junta sought to cut subsidy reliance and reduce massive rice stocks. "

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-sugar-idUSKCN0WY3U7

[mfd101]

Um, and where do we think the sugar whose price has just gone up by 20% (if it has) comes from?

Drought hits Thai sugar, next year's crop dying

" International prices may have rallied but Thai farmers are reaping no benefits. Prasert and other sugar farmers in the central Thai province of Ratchaburi say they have lost 20-30 percent of their output this year due to the drought. "

DEBTS RISE

" Of 400 farmers that sell their harvest to Prasong's refinery, 30 have for the first time failed to repay loans administered by the refinery for the crop year.

They are part of a growing number of Thailand's rural population struggling with debt. Most are rice farmers, who were hit hard when the military seized power in 2014 and ended generous subsidies.

The irony for some in Ratchaburi is that they have taken a double hit - they were encouraged to convert to sugar from rice as the junta sought to cut subsidy reliance and reduce massive rice stocks. "

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-sugar-idUSKCN0WY3U7

Thank you for that. Useful to receive information [as opposed to mindless ravings].

[lannarebirth]

Things are looking up for emerging markets

...According to Morgan Stanley, a large number of emerging markets have moved into the “restoring macro stability” recently — which means that growth is still weak, but the economy is stabilizing. Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Thailand are in this category, the report says...

http://www.businessinsider.com/things-are-looking-up-for-emerging-markets-2016-7

[dageurreotype]

A nice new coffee shop has opened near me. I'm their only customer in the 2 weeks they have been open.

I hope they last 2 months, because it's a really nice place and only 30bht for a cup.

I'm with you. Despite all the statistics and links to various economists all I see along my once popular main soi on Phuket is business after business folding. Not too much better along the main drag. And nothing to do with 'low season' (before anyone starts), this has been two years now.

[elgordo38]

I find it amazing that all the TV experts whose boots are on the ground so to speak seem to contradict the "official" positive comments. Whom should I believe government numbers or testimonials given here by my TV brethren. Then throw the daily increases on the SET while other Asian markets are zig zagging and the ever increasing baht (who was talking 37 to the dollar here?) it becomes a real conundrum.

Edited July 29, 2016 by elgordo38

[chiang mai]

I find it amazing that all the TV experts whose boots are on the ground so to speak seem to contradict the "official" positive comments. Whom should I believe government numbers or testimonials given here by my TV brethren. Then throw the daily increases on the SET while other Asian markets are zig zagging and the ever increasing baht (who was talking 37 to the dollar here?) it becomes a real conundrum.

"who was talking 37 to the dollar here", me sir I was, me sir!

Actually I was talking 42 but that's close enough.

BTW I'm going with the "official" positive comments, GBP holders are in for one rough ride I reckon, the IMF thinks Sterling is still over valued by up to 20% and who can disagree. Most posters looking at Thailand and trying to asses which way the economy is going, solely on the basis of what they do or don't see on the main soi of nakorn nowhere, really haven't got any chance of getting it right.

Edited July 29, 2016 by chiang mai

[Naam]

TV experts whose boots are on the ground

[elgordo38]

I find it amazing that all the TV experts whose boots are on the ground so to speak seem to contradict the "official" positive comments. Whom should I believe government numbers or testimonials given here by my TV brethren. Then throw the daily increases on the SET while other Asian markets are zig zagging and the ever increasing baht (who was talking 37 to the dollar here?) it becomes a real conundrum.

"who was talking 37 to the dollar here", me sir I was, me sir!

Actually I was talking 42 but that's close enough.

BTW I'm going with the "official" positive comments, GBP holders are in for one rough ride I reckon, the IMF thinks Sterling is still over valued by up to 20% and who can disagree. Most posters looking at Thailand and trying to asses which way the economy is going, solely on the basis of what they do or don't see on the main soi of nakorn nowhere, really haven't got any chance of getting it right.

Don't get upset I was just making reference to your comment at 37 to the dollar. I like 42 even better. Again the SET is up today for the upteenth day. The baht is again gaining ground no zig zagging just up.

[thaibeachlovers]

^^ Up now, it'll be down next year or the year after that.

It's irrelevant what the SET is doing for a local woman that opened a restaurant or a hairdressers, nor do they give a rat's as to the exchange rate. Neither she, nor her customers have shares or buy/ sell foreign currency.

[elgordo38]

^^ Up now, it'll be down next year or the year after that.

It's irrelevant what the SET is doing for a local woman that opened a restaurant or a hairdressers, nor do they give a rat's as to the exchange rate. Neither she, nor her customers have shares or buy/ sell foreign currency.

You make a good point. The government could use their extensive bankroll to backstop the economy if trouble arises.

[Naam]

^^ Up now, it'll be down next year or the year after that.

It's irrelevant what the SET is doing for a local woman that opened a restaurant or a hairdressers, nor do they give a rat's as to the exchange rate. Neither she, nor her customers have shares or buy/ sell foreign currency.

local women who open a restaurant or a beauty salon do not represent the Thai economy. during the last 11 years i saw a dozen or more of these establishments opening and closing in the soi that leads to my moo baan.

the problem is that in a suburb of Pattaya 3 barber shops plus 2 beauty salons on a stretch of 1.5km are more than enough. any additional ones will fail whether they undercut prices or not.

[chiang mai]

Exactly, watching the high (or the low) street as businesses come and go in Thailand is nothing more than a study in failed business start ups and nothing to do with economics, more to do with lack of common sense in many cases. Everybody here wants their own business, oh look Starbucks was successful, let's open a coffee shop!

[B1TcoinLife]

Coffee stalls are very popular in bkk too and some do last the test of time, but of course, most don't....

Especially opening up a few meters away from each other.... I don't know if it's a lack of fresh ideas or copying someone who looks like they're making money etc but where I live new small businesses pop up like mushrooms and then the shutters are down and they have went out of biz....

I talked to one couple that opened a pizza and beer shop which was decent enough but they had to choose it because the landlord decided to put the rent up when he saw them making some money...

[elgordo38]

TV experts whose boots are on the ground

I kind of thought someone would like that one. Boots on the ground fingers on the keyboard fist wrapped around a LEO

[elgordo38]

From my viewpoint, no is the quick answer to the OP.

Since the global crash in 2008 most economies have slowed in growth, but during that slow period many infastructure projects were started and now they are starting to pay off. The roads are busy with traffic, the supermarkets and local markets are busy. Small businesses are opening much more. It seems to be mirroring the Chinese economy. If China is doing well then so is Thailand. Nope, if you ask me since the Brexit fiasco the East has risen above Europe. The future is bright in the East but in the West, especially Europe, well lets say the media we read out here has shown us that Europe is weakening financially. So shouldn't the OP be writting a thread about the European Economic depression which looks likely to happen when the EU fails.

Small businesses are opening much more.

Do you have any stats to prove that?

It is contradicted by what I see in my local area, which is why I made the OP in the first place.

A year ago there were 2 photocopy places near where I live, now there is one, 3 mom and pop shops near where I live that were in business for many years have closed, the salapow business near where i live has closed, there is only one IT place near where I live now when there used to be 3.

Those businesses haven't moved to the suburbs, they were in the suburbs.

Finally, economic health is usually evidenced by new buildings going up; there is no new building activity going on around where I live.

Ah the joys of living on the edge of a cliff along the ocean. Edited July 30, 2016 by elgordo38

[elgordo38]

Coffee stalls are very popular in bkk too and some do last the test of time, but of course, most don't....

Especially opening up a few meters away from each other.... I don't know if it's a lack of fresh ideas or copying someone who looks like they're making money etc but where I live new small businesses pop up like mushrooms and then the shutters are down and they have went out of biz....

I talked to one couple that opened a pizza and beer shop which was decent enough but they had to choose it because the landlord decided to put the rent up when he saw them making some money...

You struck on something that is a real danger to starting a new business in Thailand. Your landlord wants to enjoy in your success and raises the rent you move out and the building stays empty for years. Thai math at its best. Double loser.

[morrobay]

I find it amazing that all the TV experts whose boots are on the ground so to speak seem to contradict the "official" positive comments. Whom should I believe government numbers or testimonials given here by my TV brethren. Then throw the daily increases on the SET while other Asian markets are zig zagging and the ever increasing baht (who was talking 37 to the dollar here?) it becomes a real conundrum.

"who was talking 37 to the dollar here", me sir I was, me sir!

Actually I was talking 42 but that's close enough.

BTW I'm going with the "official" positive comments, GBP holders are in for one rough ride I reckon, the IMF thinks Sterling is still over valued by up to 20% and who can disagree. Most posters looking at Thailand and trying to asses which way the economy is going, solely on the basis of what they do or don't see on the main soi of nakorn nowhere, really haven't got any chance of getting it right.

37-42 Baht/$ What happened ? Is the Baht overvalued and being propped up or what ?. I read that foreign direct investment is decreasing especially from the Japanese

(who are major source of FDI) They are now going to Vietnam , Burma and even Cambodia. Any good news on the baht from this ?

[morrobay]

From local daily paper yesterday: Foreign Direct Investment in Thailand collapses 90% / first half of year.

So if it were not for those saps at the Fed there would be some good news on exchange rate.

Edited August 3, 2016 by morrobay

[lannarebirth]

3 minutes ago, morrobay said:

From local daily paper yesterday: Foreign Direct Investment in Thailand collapses 90% / first half of year.

So if it were not for those saps at the Fed there would be some good news on exchange rate.

 

If something has already fallen 90%, historically speaking, what is its next likely direction of movement?

[morrobay]

13 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

If something has already fallen 90%, historically speaking, what is its next likely direction of movement?

 

Seems it would depend on what that something is and why it has fallen: The Japanese are/were the major FDI  source,  and are  moving productions to Vietnam. It does not look like anything reversible in this particular case.  

[Hornyskunk]

The value of the baht will be falling soon. Just wait for the referendum result (this Sunday I believe).

 

In the meantime, read about it:

http://time.com/4423508/thailand-referendum-constitution/

http://www.voanews.com/content/thai-constitutional-referendum-adds-to-clouded-economic-outlook/3445233.html

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/1997415/thai-referendum-what-twists-and-turns-lie-ahead-kingdoms

[Johnniey]

8 minutes ago, Hornyskunk said:

The value of the baht will be falling soon. Just wait for the referendum result (this Sunday I believe).

 

In the meantime, read about it:

http://time.com/4423508/thailand-referendum-constitution/

http://www.voanews.com/content/thai-constitutional-referendum-adds-to-clouded-economic-outlook/3445233.html

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/1997415/thai-referendum-what-twists-and-turns-lie-ahead-kingdoms

NOW is the time to sell Thai stocks if you have all your money invested in them. Then rebuy in a week or so.

[elgordo38]

38 minutes ago, Hornyskunk said:

The value of the baht will be falling soon. Just wait for the referendum result (this Sunday I believe).

 

In the meantime, read about it:

http://time.com/4423508/thailand-referendum-constitution/

http://www.voanews.com/content/thai-constitutional-referendum-adds-to-clouded-economic-outlook/3445233.html

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/1997415/thai-referendum-what-twists-and-turns-lie-ahead-kingdoms

I see the PM talks democracy. I wonder if he could send me a copy of the Junta dictionary to define their idea of democracy.