Do EXPATS have a future in Thailand 20 years from now?

[swissie]

Nevermind 20 years in the future.

The thread should read: "What is the future of Expats 2 years from now".

 

The writing is on the wall.

Cheers.

[Dexlowe]

1 hour ago, The manic said:

If it's palpable how do you measure it? Are you sure you just did not notice it before? May I ask how often you leave LOS? I like a break every 3 months or so and get out of pattaya frequently to explore the rest of Thailand.  Believe me after a week in Issan or a weekend in a village you are reminded of How Absolutely Brilliant Bangkok and Pattaya are. Good luck enjoying a wet Wednesday night in the UK.

One definition of "palpable" is "readily perceived" - it's the perception of a less gentler world that I feel right now - although there is every likelihood that I didn't notice it before, but I doubt it. I'm one of those people who smiles and says "thank you" to people who serve me - it's how I was brought up in Kiwiland. It's not my imagination that the smile is not being returned as often these days. Perhaps you make a point in getting away every so often. I haven't been able to do so in the past couple of years because of health issues, but perhaps I can head out more, like you, now that I'm feeling friskier. Cheers.

[sezze]

1 hour ago, little mary sunshine said:

If you can't afford to live in Thailand after

working for 35-40 years, there is something

wrong with your financial planning; "or"1. You

are one to the drunks that drank up everything

and really didn't work that much. "or"2. One of the

lazy, who wanted to retire at 45-49 y/o and now

because th pound is declining (and is expected

to lose another 16-20%)  have to pinch every Baht,

(go home a and work another 15-20 years); and

retire with 95-125K Baht/month.  Life is Great,

Here in The Land Of Smiles!!

Not every country has 95 to 125k a month retirement , and i am from a country in western europe . And yes that is for a full well paid carreer

 

Edited August 11, 2016 by sezze
post not complete

[smotherb]

3 hours ago, kenk24 said:

 

JJ, it is not really how much baht you get for your buck... it is how much buying power it comes with. Back in the 80s, it was pretty much 25-26 baht for a dollar, but things were so much cheaper that you got plenty for that 26 baht... the real measure of the exchange rate is the buying power... 

It's called Purchasing Power Parity--research a country's GDP and you get two options; GDP Nominal (per capita) and GDP PPP

[BudRight]

5 hours ago, Suradit69 said:

" Thais just don't like competition. "

 

You really should listen to what's being said in the US, Britain, Europe and other parts of Asia. Competition for markets & labor, as well as restrictions on free movement of immigrants, suggest that a lot of governments are gearing up for increased isolationism. Most countries want an uneven playing field.

 

 

Support for populist protectionism from US presidential candidates or somewhere else in Asia doesn't magically make those policies work in Thailand. If we were to compare them however, those policies at least got passed and implemented in the West - Thailand still relies on tariffs and duties, mostly due to the inability of the government to collect income taxes.

 

Anyway, my point is that protectionism is a bad thing and to the degree that Thais support such, that's bad too. I wasn't singling them out of this criticism. It's not like there's a fixed amount of bad in the world and once it gets handed out, there's none left so everything else is automatically "good." 

 

Edit: I don't really support income taxes either. Taxing productive behavior generates perverse incentives. Better to trim the civil service. I mean everywhere, not just Thailand.

Edited August 11, 2016 by BudRight

[swissie]

32 minutes ago, smotherb said:

It's called Purchasing Power Parity--research a country's GDP and you get two options; GDP Nominal (per capita) and GDP PPP

The "official" inflation rate has been pegged between 3.3 to 3.5 % over the last few years. As far as food, lodging and daily expenses is concerned, to some extent. I would almost agree.

 

However, the "price-increases" within the "entertainment sector" have far outreached the "official" inflation-rate, to a point where the word "ridiculous" comes to mind.

Killing the goose, that lays the golden eggs ? Seems like it

Cheers.   

[EddieAnd]

9 hours ago, The manic said:

If it's palpable how do you measure it? Are you sure you just did not notice it before? May I ask how often you leave LOS? I like a break every 3 months or so and get out of pattaya frequently to explore the rest of Thailand.  Believe me after a week in Issan or a weekend in a village you are reminded of How Absolutely Brilliant Bangkok and Pattaya are. Good luck enjoying a wet Wednesday night in the UK.

What makes you think your home country is any different now. USA Mass shootings.... UK racial tension unemployment the Euro zone flooded with refugees (for the most part) and an increase in racism... etc...the western world (Developed)is pretty much <deleted> up. Thirty years is a long time to be in Thailand... to think that you could go back to wherever and relax is difficult to imagine. Unlike manic I love the country have distain for Pattaya and to a lesser degree Bangkok...What would the future hold back there? 

I understand family is the most important relationship we have and that is probably the key driver for you wanting to return. I think that there is a lot of social collapse everywhere not just in Pattaya.

Good luck on your return

[balo]

One thing is certain,  20 years from now Thaivisa will be dead and buried together with some of the grumpy old members in here. 

 

[geronimo]

Thailand is like a beautiful woman, it doesn't matter what she does, people like her. Twenty years from now is anyone's guess, and I have no concerns. Perhaps that's why I love this place.

[Suradit69]

6 hours ago, BudRight said:

Support for populist protectionism from US presidential candidates or somewhere else in Asia doesn't magically make those policies work in Thailand. If we were to compare them however, those policies at least got passed and implemented in the West - Thailand still relies on tariffs and duties, mostly due to the inability of the government to collect income taxes.

 

Anyway, my point is that protectionism is a bad thing and to the degree that Thais support such, that's bad too. I wasn't singling them out of this criticism. It's not like there's a fixed amount of bad in the world and once it gets handed out, there's none left so everything else is automatically "good." 

 

Edit: I don't really support income taxes either. Taxing productive behavior generates perverse incentives. Better to trim the civil service. I mean everywhere, not just Thailand.

 

" Support for populist protectionism from US presidential candidates or somewhere else in Asia doesn't magically make those policies work in Thailand. "

 

No magic involved. I was responding to the comment that Thais don't like competition, which implied that it is only Thais who want to be in an advantageous position with regards to trade. And I in no way suggested that protectionism worked as intended by those who support it. Protectionism isn't some new concept suddenly promoted by US presidential candidates or something that they first learned about from study Thai policies.

 

" Better to trim the civil service. I mean everywhere, not just Thailand."

 

I don't like taxes or bloated, free-spending government either, but once the fat is cut away there still remain some essential government services and they must be paid for somehow.

 

The biggest problem facing world economic order is the debt bubble that continues to expand, both in the public and private sectors, and that is shifting the cost of services forward for future generations to pay. And now debt is being used not only to finance genuine unfunded government services, but also to prop up the financial markets to create the impression that we are recovering from the last debt-induced financial implosion. It's not going to end well. 

 

Whether you tax income directly or you tax sales and business, which indirectly taxes individuals through higher prices, we can't demand government provide free schools, roads, medical care, defense, etc without paying for it. 

 

 

 

 

[thaibook]

sorry if this is overlong.

There are broad long term trends.  As communication between countries and regions is faster it is less likely that such a trend does not manifest itself in most countries in some way.  Over the past 20-30-40 years we have had a trend of the break-up of communities, brought about by notions of multiculturalism and equality of rights (without compensating responsibilities) as well as the growing dominance of economics in decision making, at the personal as well as collective levels (inevitable if there is no community) which has been further exacerbated by these developments.  This is globalisation.  Why are there so many foreigners (not just farang) in Thailand who do not participate in Thai social life? (the same can be asked f most countries)  Simply because they choose where to live based on a set of personal external variables – weather, cost of living, ease of transport, access to entertainment (sport, politics, films), etc – considering neither the potential disruption to communities nor the person's possible contribution to it as a relevant factor.

In Thailand, the dawning of money as a very important, possibly primary motivation (in itself not merely as another means to power, right across society) became obvious in the seventies and eighties.  Inevitably this also led to a change in social dynamics, such as the acceptance of large numbers of farang because of their contribution to the financial wellbeing of Thais.  (How many farang lived in Thailand in the late seventies?).  As a young man in the eighties it was common when walking in the street with a Thai girl (very riep roi) for young Thai men to start humming or singing nationalist songs (in particular there was one about why does Thai girl go out with farang when so many Thai men have better character).   

The globalisation trend seems to be starting to dissipate and the importance of a sense of community is growing again.  This evidently has repercussions, such as economic, and leads to changes in behaviour which is likely to mainly affect those who have migrated and not integrated.  Instinctively, people know that if they want a social structure based on community rather than purely manon then the presence of large numbers of people who are motivated largely by using their economic power to gratify themselves.  Of course groups who benefit economically from this foreign money will try to curtail the trend, but they are not in the streets and in fact rarely interact with most farang themselves.

The disdain for farang is a return to the past but it is likely that it will not be accompanied by a return to the other attributes Thais valued before money became the god.  If this emerging trend continues, so will the changes in Thailand but then these trends are also apparent in many other countries in Asia, the Middle east and in Europe. 

[dick dasterdly]

Have to admit that I am concerned at the way visas/extensions etc. require ever more (unacceptable) forms and requirements - along with new initiatives that portray foreigners as as 'the villain', requiring more monitoring etc.  This type of scapegoating is always worrying as it encourages the local population to automatically see us negatively.

[Kwasaki]

12 hours ago, LannaGuy said:

 

yup i believe that now go take your cocoa and sweet dreams

 

Give the guy a break his wife can read his posts. 

[Time Traveller]

You're worried if expats will have a future in Thailand in 20 years? That's hilariously self centered. I doubt if Thailand will still exist in 20 years from now.

[smotherb]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

The "official" inflation rate has been pegged between 3.3 to 3.5 % over the last few years. As far as food, lodging and daily expenses is concerned, to some extent. I would almost agree.

 

However, the "price-increases" within the "entertainment sector" have far outreached the "official" inflation-rate, to a point where the word "ridiculous" comes to mind.

Killing the goose, that lays the golden eggs ? Seems like it

Cheers.   

Ladies Drinks and Barfines are not usually mentioned in the economists basket of common goods and services--although in the Thai entertainment industry, perhaps they should be.  I was responding to kenk24's post about  "buying power"

[billd766]

13 hours ago, LannaGuy said:

 

yup i believe that now go take your cocoa and sweet dreams

 

I don't drink cocoa nor do I give a rats arrrssse if you believe me or not.

 

I have no real need to go out of Thailand other than once to see my son, daughter in law and my grand children. I haven't seen my son in 12 years and I have never seen his family.

 

Bangkok is useful to buy things that I can't get up here and Pattaya as I said before is of no interest to me at all.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, Kwasaki said:

 

Give the guy a break his wife can read his posts. 

 

She can but she doesn't bother to do so. Good for her. I don't have anything to hide from her so why should I care what some anonymous person on the internet thinks.

[Scotwight]

59 minutes ago, Time Traveller said:

You're worried if expats will have a future in Thailand in 20 years? That's hilariously self centered. I doubt if Thailand will still exist in 20 years from now.

Thailand was on the Japanese side during WWII and after that loss did better than before.  Thailand was on the American side during the Vietnam war and after that loss did better than before.  I don't see the current situation as much of a challenge considering Thailand's history.

[LannaGuy]

17 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

I don't drink cocoa nor do I give a rats arrrssse if you believe me or not.

 

I have no real need to go out of Thailand other than once to see my son, daughter in law and my grand children. I haven't seen my son in 12 years and I have never seen his family.

 

Bangkok is useful to buy things that I can't get up here and Pattaya as I said before is of no interest to me at all.

 

good but why do you think we are interested if you think pattaya is of 'interest' to YOU or not?  enjoy your domestic bliss and let the rest of us enjoy what's on offer

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

 

I don't drink cocoa nor do I give a rats arrrssse if you believe me or not.

 

I have no real need to go out of Thailand other than once to see my son, daughter in law and my grand children. I haven't seen my son in 12 years and I have never seen his family.

 

Bangkok is useful to buy things that I can't get up here and Pattaya as I said before is of no interest to me at all.

You haven't seen your son in 12 years and have never seen his wife and children?

 

Something wrong with this picture unless, of course, he has no interest in you.

 

Perhaps none of you are able to travel abroad for various reasons?

[ev1lchris]

I don't know where you're from but Thailand is dirt cheap compared to most other places.

 

If things regress with this military government to where Thailand more resembles Cambodia or Vietnam I would want to leave.  As for right now, personally I could spend the rest of my life here.

[khundon]

Most of them will be dead twenty years from now!

[anotheruser]

22 hours ago, geronimo said:

Thailand is like a beautiful woman, it doesn't matter what she does, people like her. Twenty years from now is anyone's guess, and I have no concerns. Perhaps that's why I love this place.

 

Does Thailand have a future is a much more pertinent question.

 

[facthailand]

We find ourselves the new Burma under military rule. With the 'yes' vote, this will assuredly be the situation for at least the next five years. Burma did not have a large number of expats, and foreign business owners so no comparison can be made.

 

However, the parallels are inescapable and, on closer look, the military is still in charge in Myanmar.

 

Foreign expats are ever more vulnerable. Thailand has been my home for three decades. I don't ever want to live anywhere else and roll with the political situation. Nevertheless, I think all of us should have an alternative such as long-term visas elsewhere.

[hagler]

Real EXPATS will be doing what they do now . Working, raising a family and contributing to a functional society. 

 

Retirees will still be moaning and whinging cause that is what older people do no matter how good they got it anywhere in the world.

 

The young skivers and dropouts will be doing the same. Inventing names like digital nomads and finding ways to circumvent the rules so they can extend their time in the sun.

 

Nothimg ever really changes. Just gets recycled and repackaged as a new fashion

 

 

 

[SoiBiker]

3 hours ago, hagler said:

Real EXPATS will be doing what they do now . Working, raising a family and contributing to a functional society. 

 

Retirees will still be moaning and whinging cause that is what older people do no matter how good they got it anywhere in the world.

 

The young skivers and dropouts will be doing the same. Inventing names like digital nomads and finding ways to circumvent the rules so they can extend their time in the sun.

 

Nothimg ever really changes. Just gets recycled and repackaged as a new fashion

 

 

 

 

Sorry to burst your bubble, but being an expat isn't some special status you earn by getting a job or knocking someone up. If you live outside your home country, you're an expat. Those people you're looking down on are expats too, just like you. 

[Scotwight]

4 hours ago, hagler said:

Real EXPATS will be doing what they do now . Working, raising a family and contributing to a functional society. 

 

Retirees will still be moaning and whinging cause that is what older people do no matter how good they got it anywhere in the world.

 

The young skivers and dropouts will be doing the same. Inventing names like digital nomads and finding ways to circumvent the rules so they can extend their time in the sun.

 

Nothimg ever really changes. Just gets recycled and repackaged as a new fashion

I'm retired and not moaning.  I'm celebrating that I have enough money to do anything I want without working anymore.  I live in Thailand because I like lots of nubile young women around me.  Life's good.  When I was in Thailand as a young man it was not near as good as it is now.  Things have changed for the better.  I hope those who are here in the next 20 years can say the same. 

[Scotwight]

5 hours ago, anotheruser said:

 

Does Thailand have a future is a much more pertinent question.

 

To whom?  Of course it has a future.  I think you mean future that will accommodate what you consider a good future.  Thai women have been supporting themselves and families through sex since the 1600's and I doubt if that will change in the foreseeable future.  Only the outfits and music changes and the music not that much really. 

[tuonsai]

I predict the gov't will soon start cracking down on the widespread sex industry so Thailand will become a middle class family vacation destination. I think this is likely to happen in the next 5 years as soon as they run out of other problems to solve, they'll turn to that. As for future, it will become just like Malaysia. Boring.

If these terrorist attacks continue though, it could also spiral into an unsafe destination. There's only so much bad press a country can take before it falls out of favor. Thailand's been getting a lot for a while now.

[Denim]

On 8/11/2016 at 0:11 PM, thai3 said:

On 8/11/2016 at 11:11 AM, Denim said:

 

I've been here when it was only 26.

That was when the baht was tied even more closely to the dollar and one pound only got you a dollar.

 

Talk about belt tightening ........ My eyes nearly popped out.

 

What year was this?  8 baht to the pound was it's lowest ever in the 19th c

 

It was 27. 31 on the 18th of October 1984. However when I arrived at the airport and needed some taxi money only got 26.something.

 

Here's a handy site for checking past rates :

 

http://fxtop.com/

 

http://fxtop.com/en/currency-converter-past.php?A=100&C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD=18&MM=10&YYYY=1984&B=1&P=&I=1&btnOK=Go!

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2016 by Denim