Further baht gains may hurt recovery, Bank of Thailand says

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

I believe strongly that they wont

It's not so much as BOT's published economic data, albeit the World Bank stated a lower GDP growth rate of 2.5% for 2015 vs. BOT's stated 2.8%. It's the BOT's predictions of GDP growth (ie., GDP growth could expand to 4% for 2015) and deferred interest rate cuts that appear to comply with the Junta's political message that the Thai economy has not only recovered but headed for greater economic heights. It is no surprise that BOT's predictions are often rosier than from Thai nongovernment financial institutions and independent economic analysts.

 

[Naam]

5 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

BOT is well outside of the PM's direct control, unless you're a conspiracy theorist that is.

conspiracy theories = the staple diet of the majority of TV-members  

[Naam]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

 

Except the BOT's numbers are produced weekly and monthly for the world to see and any interference by the bank, overtly or otherwise would show up in those numbers - they haven't and I believe strongly that they wont, simply because of history and the need to be seen to keep independence of the bank, any alternative would cause investor confidence to evaporate.

 

 

 

why spoil with facts interesting fairy tales? 

[Naam]

56 minutes ago, madmitch said:

Totally agree, but isn't it interesting that as consumers, we never see the baht price of imported goods go down regardless of the strength of the baht? It's just a bonus for those running the import companies. 

 

all over the world this is business as usual.

[Agent Sumo]

5 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

BOT is well outside of the PM's direct control, unless you're a conspiracy theorist that is.

Agreed.

 

These conspiracy theories are often dreamt up by those with skin in the game - in this case those who may be struggling to maintain the illusion of superior relative wealth to the locals with the exchange rate as it is at the moment.

 

Thailand has no real reason to emulate the idiotic negative interest rate and quantitative easing policies being trotted out by the likes of the ECB, BOJ and the BOE. Well, not yet anyway.

 

It's not their job to implement policy for financially inept economic migrants 

[chiang mai]

9 hours ago, Srikcir said:

It's not so much as BOT's published economic data, albeit the World Bank stated a lower GDP growth rate of 2.5% for 2015 vs. BOT's stated 2.8%. It's the BOT's predictions of GDP growth (ie., GDP growth could expand to 4% for 2015) and deferred interest rate cuts that appear to comply with the Junta's political message that the Thai economy has not only recovered but headed for greater economic heights. It is no surprise that BOT's predictions are often rosier than from Thai nongovernment financial institutions and independent economic analysts.

 

 

UK's BOE publishes a fan chart every month  that shows the range of possible outcomes for every given economic scenario, consumers can take their pick of the range based on personal preferences and their adeptness with a pin!

 

At least BOT has the decency to commit to a single figure, right or wrong they state it is/will be X. After all, if you were BOT would you want to talk up or talk down economic prosperity in Thailands future, tell me you also wouldn't go for the higher number and I'll tell you you're telling porkies. (porkies = pork pies, lies, Cockney rhyming slang).

[CharlieH]

One post removed another edited.

 

7) You will respect fellow members and post in a civil manner. No personal attacks, hateful or insulting towards other members, (flaming) Stalking of members on either the forum or via PM will not be allowed.

8) You will not post disruptive or inflammatory messages, vulgarities, obscenities or profanities.
 

[oxo1947]

16 hours ago, alofthailand said:

You could never live here on just a state pension- we live off our property rent back in the  UK - the state pension is barely beer money at 120 quid a month.

 

It's 30 quid a week........?????.........what a pity I left when I was 19 years old.......I would have stayed & worked at the coal mine if I knew I was going to get such a handsome pension when I got to 65.......

Edited August 23, 2016 by oxo1947

[Srikcir]

4 hours ago, chiang mai said:

tell me you also wouldn't go for the higher number

BOT should go with an honest assessment of the near future.

If that means going contrary to Prayut's predictions with lower projections, so be it.

[Prbkk]

16 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

The Baht doesn't trade against Sterling. GBP:THB rates are an interpolation of USD:GBP and USD:THB rates. That said I think the THB is pretty close to fair value against the $USD, maybe even 32-33. Ultimately I expect the THB to go to 25 vs the USD and then 20, though I may not live to see it. Something to think about for those "buy vs. rent" threads. 

 

16 Baht to the Aussie is in my memory: only about 25 years ago ( now 26, has been as high as 33 over recent years). 

Anyone contemplating retirement in any way reliant on a pension ( other than self funded/managed) might want to look at the very sobering article in today's FT: " save more, work longer, lower expectations". No surprise in that but the extent of the problem, particularly for Europe and the U.K. is staggering ( and immediate). Liabilities exceed assets by a huge margin. 

[chiang mai]

4 hours ago, Srikcir said:

BOT should go with an honest assessment of the near future.

If that means going contrary to Prayut's predictions with lower projections, so be it.

 

Do you have proof BOT didn't do that?

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

Do you have proof BOT didn't do that?

You raised the assertion that BOT conceivably goes with the higher projections to present an encouraging economic picture, ie., rather than being honest with lower projections. Do you have proof that BOT does that? Or are you just pontificating to maintain your statement?

With regards to my proof, you can review the BOT predictions since the Junta overthrew the government and gained control of all its institutions and compare to Junta's highly optimistic projections - they mesh. But case in point is that BOT should have cut interest rates no later than in the 2nd quarter 2016 to control inflation of the baht to protect an already contracting export revenues and investor flight. But that would be viewed as an indication that the economy is not in full recovery as Prayut alleges.

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

You raised the assertion that BOT conceivably goes with the higher projections to present an encouraging economic picture, ie., rather than being honest with lower projections. Do you have proof that BOT does that? Or are you just pontificating to maintain your statement?

With regards to my proof, you can review the BOT predictions since the Junta overthrew the government and gained control of all its institutions and compare to Junta's highly optimistic projections - they mesh. But case in point is that BOT should have cut interest rates no later than in the 2nd quarter 2016 to control inflation of the baht to protect an already contracting export revenues and investor flight. But that would be viewed as an indication that the economy is not in full recovery as Prayut alleges.

 

Inward investment and capital inflows are dependant upon investors believing the economy is doing at least OK - objective achieved since capital inflows this year exceeded all expectations.

 

As for the, "Junta's highly optimistic projections", no investor in their right mind would listen to economic projections supplied by the military, economic projections are the work of BOT and sometimes, just like The Fed and the BOE, they get things wrong.