Early voting: Tighter race, but still good signs for Clinton

[webfact]

Early voting: Tighter race, but still good signs for Clinton

By HOPE YEN

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Clinton may not be accumulating the type of early-vote advantage her campaign wanted, but she continues to maintain an apparent edge over Donald Trump, with more than one-quarter of all expected ballots cast in the 2016 election.

 

The Democrat's campaign once hoped to bank substantial votes from Democrats in North Carolina and Florida before Election Day. Both are must-win states for Trump.

 

But data about the early vote suggest she's not doing as well as President Barack Obama in 2012. Ballot requests from likely supporters have been weak in parts of the Midwest, and African-American turnout has fallen, too.

 

Still, the tens of millions of early votes cast also point to strength from Democratic-leaning Latino voters, potentially giving Clinton a significant advantage in Nevada and Colorado. With more than half the votes already cast in those states, Democrats are matching if not exceeding their successful 2012 pace, according to data compiled by The Associated Press.

 

"We are seeing the trajectory of the election change in some states, but Democrats are also making up ground," said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor and expert in voter turnout.

 

Early voting — by mail and at polling stations — is underway in 37 states. At least 35.1 million votes have been cast, representing more than 25 percent of the total votes expected nationwide if turnout is similar to 2012. In all, more than 46 million people — or as much as 40 percent of the electorate — are expected to vote before Tuesday, according to AP data.

 

The results of those votes won't be known until polls close next week. But early voting data — party affiliation, race and other details — are being carefully examined for clues about the ballots that have been cast so far.

A look at the latest trends:

___

RACE TIGHTENS IN NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA

In North Carolina and Florida, Democrats did better with mail balloting than they had in previous elections. They expected to build on that with the start of in-person voting, where Democrats traditionally do well. But the big turnout — especially among black voters — hasn't yet happened.

 

In North Carolina, with more than half of the expected vote already cast, Democrats lead in ballots submitted, 43 percent to 32 percent. But that's slightly below the same period in 2012, when Mitt Romney narrowly won the state.

 

This year, fewer polling locations were open in Democratic-leaning counties in the first week of early voting. More locations have since opened, but Democrats are still trying to catch up. Voting by African-Americans has declined to 22 percent of the early vote, from 28 percent in 2012. The white vote has risen to about 73 percent from 67 percent.

 

In Florida, more than half of voters have already cast ballots. Democrats remain virtually tied with Republicans. At this point in 2008 and 2012, Democrats held an advantage in ballots cast. Obama won the state both years.

 

The black share of ballots is down, while the Latino share is up.

 

Democrats and Republican analysts say they see signs that Republican early voters are those who previously voted on Election Day, while Democrats are drawing new voters. That would be good news for Democrats.

 

"I'm still bullish that Clinton will get to the 270 electoral votes" needed to win the White House, said Scott Tranter, co-founder of the Republican data firm Optimus.

___

RISING LATINO VOTE MAY BOOST CLINTON

Latinos may be providing Clinton with support she needs in key Western states.

 

In swing-state Nevada, where half the total ballots have been cast, Democrats lead with 42 percent to 37 percent.

 

That's comparable to the party's share at this point in 2012, good news for Clinton since Obama ultimately won the state by 6 percentage points. Ballots from Latinos and Asian-Americans — another group that tends to vote Democratic — are up, while ballots from African-American and white voters are down.

 

More than 1.4 million residents have cast ballots in Colorado, or more than half the expected vote. Democrats hold the advantage, 36 percent to 35 percent. Colorado, for the first time in a presidential election, is voting mostly by mail. At this point in 2012, Republicans held the advantage.

 

In Arizona, where two-thirds of votes have been cast, Democrats trail by 6 percentage points. But at this point in 2012, Republicans had opened a lead of roughly 10 percentage points. The share of independent voters or those whose party affiliation is unknown is also up slightly.

 

Turnout rose among all races, but at higher rates among Hispanics.

 

"Arizona is close," Tranter said.

 

In Republican-leaning Texas, 3.3 million votes have been cast in the top 15 counties, up 36 percent. The state does not present breakdowns by party. Voter modeling by Catalist , a Democratic analytical firm, found ballots increasing by all race groups, but at sharper rates among Latinos.

___

WHITES BUOY TRUMP IN OHIO, IOWA

Trump may hold an edge in Ohio and Iowa, two states he's counting on to reach 270.

 

In Ohio, the heavily Democratic counties of Cuyahoga and Franklin are posting declines in ballot requests compared to 2012, while Republican-leaning counties such as Warren have seen an increase. The state does not break down ballots by party. Voter modeling by Catalist found the white share of Ohio ballot requests was up to 90 percent from 87 percent. The black share fell to 8 percent from 11 percent.

 

Obama won Iowa in 2012 due to his strength in early voting. This year, Democrats lead there in both ballots requested and returned, 43 percent to 34 percent. But Democrats are running behind 2012 levels based on requested ballots, while Republicans are mostly on pace.

 

But Republicans may be having trouble flipping another state, Wisconsin, that voted for Obama in the last two elections. Overall turnout in Wisconsin is outpacing 2012, with bigger shares coming from major Democratic counties such as Dane and Milwaukee.

___

DEFENDING REPUBLICAN TURF

Trump also may be holding ground in two Republican-leaning states that Clinton targeted.

 

In Georgia, the number of ballots submitted has increased mostly among whites, while the black share has declined.

 

In Utah, Republicans lead in returned ballots, 46 percent to 15 percent; no party voters made up 35 percent. The Republican share in ballots is down from 2012 but improved from a week ago.

___

AP's Election Research and Quality Control Group in New York contributed to this report.

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-11-04

[SgtRock]

That might just be about to hit the skids

 

Quote

Hillary Clinton faced fresh allegations of corruption yesterday as it emerged that the FBI had been investigating her family charity for a year and agents were pressing for an imminent indictment.

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/clinton-s-charity-under-investigation-for-a-year-36jkqhsd7

[SaintLouisBlues]

Just been reading an interesting opinion piece about how the Trump kids have all sorts of business connections with unsavoury foreign autocrats who will be seeking access to President Trump in the same way as Clinton Foundation donors sought access to Secretary of State Clinton. They're both the same - snouts in the trough, whichever way you want to spin it

[lannarebirth]

9 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Just been reading an interesting opinion piece about how the Trump kids have all sorts of business connections with unsavoury foreign autocrats who will be seeking access to President Trump in the same way as Clinton Foundation donors sought access to Secretary of State Clinton. They're both the same - snouts in the trough, whichever way you want to spin it

 

No question, but Trump doesn't have the supporting cabal to sustain it as the Clintons do.

[dcutman]

1 hour ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Just been reading an interesting opinion piece about how the Trump kids have all sorts of business connections with unsavoury foreign autocrats who will be seeking access to President Trump in the same way as Clinton Foundation donors sought access to Secretary of State Clinton. They're both the same - snouts in the trough, whichever way you want to spin it

Is there a reason not to supply a link to the op ed you are referring to?

[Thaidream]

When considering who to vote for in this sorry election one must throw out all the corruption allegations; email drama; abuse of women allegations and anything extraeous to who will do the best job.

Trump has no plan; would cause a Worldwide recession; further divide America and do nothing for the poor and middle class.

Clinton does have extensive plans that will provide some relief to the middle class and poor and provide free tuition for college students as well as reform the Obamacare mess by providing an affordable public option. She may be tainted but she is the only reasonable choice.

[bark]

3 hours ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Just been reading an interesting opinion piece about how the Trump kids have all sorts of business connections with unsavoury foreign autocrats who will be seeking access to President Trump in the same way as Clinton Foundation donors sought access to Secretary of State Clinton. They're both the same - snouts in the trough, whichever way you want to spin it

They run an International business. What do you think ?

Clinton does not run a business. She has always been a paid employee; somewhere. Under and over the table.

Spin that !

[JHolmesJr]

I don't think latinos care about corruption in candidates since they are quite forgiving of it in their own countries.

 

'Hill' can have their vote…they know she wants to welcome them all in.

[elgordo38]

Would not surprise me if a high ration of voters going into the polling booth were holding a handkerchief up to their nose. The liquor companies should hand out a good stiff belt outside the voting stations for voters after casting their ballots. I hope Lincoln and the other presidents are not rolling over in their graves. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by elgordo38

[Publicus]

 

Three pretty down to earth views of it no matter who one prefers....

 

Cook Political Report: “A tightening race nationally has also translated into tightening at the state level. States that were trending Trump’s way in September started to slip away from him in early October. Now, with the focus more on Clinton’s emails than on Trump’s debate performances or his Twitter spats, states like Iowa and Ohio are moving back in Trump’s direction… However, these are minor, not major adjustments to the overall Electoral College map with Clinton now at 278 (8 more votes than she needs to win) and Trump at 214 (56 short of 270).

 

 

I think it would be easy for most people to agree HRC didn't "pick" any of this, but fact is she's got it....

 

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Hillary Clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the campaign. Now with just days to go until Election Day, there’s added uncertainty about the outcome. But while she may not be on the brink of an Electoral College win the size of Barack Obama’s in 2008 or even 2012, her position as the clear frontrunner in this race endures.”

 

 

 

And this one is recommended reading to James Comey who is going to have to face the music after the election....

 

 

The Lid:  “With the exception of a few news pops related to the Wikileaks disclosures, the news spotlight hasn’t been this focused on Clinton since her bad week at the beginning of September (the ‘basket of deplorables’ comment and her pneumonia collapse.)”

 

“We’ve seen throughout this election that whichever candidate is in the front of voters’ minds tends to suffer, which explains why this week has been so bumpy for Clinton. And it’s a good reminder why Clinton is turning her closing argument from a positive message to a reprise of the greatest hits of her attacks against Trump.”

 

 

No matter what the subject, the greatest hits compilation is always the winning approach.

 

Comey btw is reporting to and responding to a faction of the U.S. House of the Congress rather than to his Constitutional superiors in the Executive Branch who are, specifically, the AG and Potus. Gen. MacArthur got fired by Potus Truman for going to the Congress in opposition to Truman as his CinC. So who the fock does James Comey believe HimSelf to Be.

[Jingthing]

Polls.

Schmolls.

It's TURNOUT time!

Edited November 4, 2016 by Jingthing

[dunroaming]

Of course it is better for Clinton to win rather than Trump but there will be no sense of achievement if that happens.

[Jingthing]

Of course it is better for Clinton to win rather than Trump but there will be no sense of achievement if that happens.

Stopping a dangerous demagogue who would destabilize the world is a big achievement.

[dunroaming]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Stopping a dangerous demagogue who would destabilize the world is a big achievement.

 

I agree with the sentiment but I cannot share your enthusiasm for Clinton

[mania]

7 hours ago, Thaidream said:

When considering who to vote for in this sorry election one must throw out all the corruption allegations; email drama; abuse of women allegations and anything extraeous to who will do the best job.

Trump has no plan; would cause a Worldwide recession; further divide America and do nothing for the poor and middle class.

Clinton does have extensive plans that will provide some relief to the middle class and poor and provide free tuition for college students as well as reform the Obamacare mess by providing an affordable public option. She may be tainted but she is the only reasonable choice.

 

I could care less for either candidate but find it interesting you would expect us to "throw out all the corruption allegations" as you say.....& with ever more coming it seems.

Yet in the next breath ask us to accept all your anti Trump "claims" & then call it reasonable???

Edited November 4, 2016 by mania

[Silurian]

Another piece of good news for Hillary. 73 months of consecutive jobs gain.

 

U.S. unemployment falls to 4.9% before election

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/04/news/economy/us-october-jobs-report/index.html

[Dumbastheycome]

The distraction will soon be over. And then......

[Jingthing]

4 hours ago, dunroaming said:

 

I agree with the sentiment but I cannot share your enthusiasm for Clinton

My enthusiasm is about stopping the madness. The madness of trump. 

[Dumbastheycome]

7 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

My enthusiasm is about stopping the madness. The madness of trump. 

Madness? In a "Reality"  Showman?   

F fffffff ired!

 

 

lol

[Publicus]

8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Polls.

Schmolls.

It's TURNOUT time!

 

Turnout indeed.

 

HRC and the entire campaign effort -- Kaine, OB, Michelle, Sens. Warren and Sanders -- are doing what every campaign does in the final 100 hours. Go to your base.

 

It is non-stop now until 2 a.m. Tuesday. Sleep on the plane, on the bus, wherever, but keep going hitting your base.

 

The Base.

 

Fire up and bring out your base.

 

Trump needs to take blue states to win. HRC holds the base, brings in North Carolina, maybe Arizona, possibly Georgia, she'd have taken from Trump base states Romney won (McCain before him).

 

Trump needs to win two or three Blue states of the Democratic Party base, which is why he's in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire. Trump is sweating Utah. He must have Florida -- must must must. Even then, Trump needs Blue states that are the D party base.

 

From now through to the wee hours of Tuesday, HRC and the campaign will spend their time in the base.  While Trump who must run the table to win wanders, HRC and the entire Democratic campaign focuses and drives in --- to the base. (Helps the Senate races too.)

[lannarebirth]

7 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Stopping a dangerous demagogue who would destabilize the world is a big achievement.

 

It's important in life to separate out what people say from what they actually do. Trump has destabilized some corporations and the lives of the families perhaps that worked for those corporations. Hillary Clinton is directly responsible for destabilizing nations and creating humanitarian crises that may destabilize whole continents. What's more is, that was her obvious intention from the start. I would expect more of the same post election.

[Damrongsak]

How many pro-Hillary people here are sucking down government retirement pay and benefits, or will be?

 

I don't like Trump or Clinton.  Trump is Trump, warts and all.  Hillary is corrupt, unstable, unhealthy and is just a vile person.  I don't entirely blame her, being married to Bill. But she could have been better than that.  I fear what is to come if she gets elected.  Trump, not so much. He has enough $$$ already that he doesn't need to sell out the entire country.

[lannarebirth]

36 minutes ago, Damrongsak said:

How many pro-Hillary people here are sucking down government retirement pay and benefits, or will be?

 

I don't like Trump or Clinton.  Trump is Trump, warts and all.  Hillary is corrupt, unstable, unhealthy and is just a vile person.  I don't entirely blame her, being married to Bill. But she could have been better than that.  I fear what is to come if she gets elected.  Trump, not so much. He has enough $$$ already that he doesn't need to sell out the entire country.

 

Oh, I think he'd try to peddle influence for money if he could, I just don't think he would be successful at it. He doesn't have the right organization in place to do it. Hillary Clinton on the other hand, does.

Edited November 4, 2016 by lannarebirth

[Damrongsak]

It wouldn't surprise me if Trump would just try to screw with other powers that be.  The head-game deal. He doesn't need money, he's not in a panic for that, or shouldn't be. So maybe he has that going for him. And he's private-sector, more or less.

 

On the other hand, having primarily only government service experience is kind of scary.  No real accountability or liability.  Virtually unlimited funds.  Deal the punches, don't just roll with them.  I grew up inside the Beltway around D.C.  in the late 60's and 70's. It was bad then and has gotten to the point where I don't want to go near there.

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

It's important in life to separate out what people say from what they actually do. Trump has destabilized some corporations and the lives of the families perhaps that worked for those corporations. Hillary Clinton is directly responsible for destabilizing nations and creating humanitarian crises that may destabilize whole continents. What's more is, that was her obvious intention from the start. I would expect more of the same post election.

Sure thing, mate. 

 

http://time.com/4556052/hillary-clinton-only-choice/?xid=homepage

Quote

 Why Hillary Clinton Is the Only Choice to Keep America Great
...
Those who would put Clinton’s failings in the same league as Trump’s depravities are delusional.

 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Jingthing

[Pinot]

18 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

It's important in life to separate out what people say from what they actually do. Trump has destabilized some corporations and the lives of the families perhaps that worked for those corporations. Hillary Clinton is directly responsible for destabilizing nations and creating humanitarian crises that may destabilize whole continents. What's more is, that was her obvious intention from the start. I would expect more of the same post election.

 

Her intention from the start was (wait for it) to destabilize nations and create human crises and destabilize whole continents. 

 

That is the wingnutosphere in a nutshell. 

 

18 hours ago, Damrongsak said:

How many pro-Hillary people here are sucking down government retirement pay and benefits, or will be?

 

I don't like Trump or Clinton.  Trump is Trump, warts and all.  Hillary is corrupt, unstable, unhealthy and is just a vile person.  I don't entirely blame her, being married to Bill. But she could have been better than that.  I fear what is to come if she gets elected.  Trump, not so much. He has enough $$$ already that he doesn't need to sell out the entire country.

 

Ummm okay. Trump isn't a greedy unprincipled asshat who already has enough $$$ so he won't sell out the country. And Putin will probably win a humanitarian Nobel Peace Prize next year. Wow. Are you and lannarebirth the same guy? 

 

17 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

Oh, I think he'd try to peddle influence for money if he could, I just don't think he would be successful at it. He doesn't have the right organization in place to do it. Hillary Clinton on the other hand, does.

 

Trump wouldn't be good at peddling influence because....he doesn't have the infrastructure that Hillary has. Wow, you're on a roll, lan. Don't stop now. 

 

The wingnuts can smell victory. 

 

 

[Gary A]

Could this be true? If so, the game is over.

 

 

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, Gary A said:

Could this be true? If so, the game is over.

 

 

Russian propaganda. Yes, it's from Russia and it's well known Putin is trying to get the trump elected president. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/NEWSRussian

Edited November 5, 2016 by Jingthing

[Skywalker69]

[MJP]

Why can't it be a race between Chelsea and Ivanka?

 

Much better. Get all these tired, bitter, miserable old gits out of it and make way for a new generation.

Edited November 5, 2016 by MJP