So lets take a look at the crystal ball

[jimmyyy]

I got a big check coming next month, and want to move it over to Thai Baht.  Its US dollars  Do any of you have an educated guess about what the baht will do against the dollar in the next 30 days.  I can be ready to move it to my bangkok bank next week but thinking maybe hold out for 36.00 per USD.  Baht for your thoughts.......

Edited January 19, 2017 by jimmyyy

[roo860]

Surely there's plenty of stats etc out there for you to make a decision yourself. Why not just state you had a big cheque coming, without stating the amount, will be getting begging messages.
ps. Can you lend me 100,000$?.

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[Swiss1960]

Tea leaf OK?

I read that the Trump hype of the last 2 months is over, too many promises already weakened or withdrawn, too many of the new secretaries openly contradicting Trump in the Senate hearings.

USD dropped in January alone from 36 to 35.2 low and my tea leaves tell me it will only go down more

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[jimmyyy]

12 minutes ago, roo860 said:

Surely there's plenty of stats etc out there for you to make a decision yourself. Why not just state you had a big cheque coming, without stating the amount, will be getting begging messages.
ps. Can you lend me 100,000$?.

 

 

no and I edited the post...  If I knew anything about currencies i would not have to ask.  I just don't know hence why i am asking.  If it bothers you don't reply.
Sent from my SM-G920F using Thaivisa Connect mobile app
 

 

[jimmyyy]

Interesting SWISS1960, i can see that in the chart, i guess after tomorrow I will see what happens.  Hopefully it stays at the 35 + level.  

[roo860]

Doesn't bother me in the slightest. Maybe if you snooze, you lose.

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[KNJ]

34.6219874291612338901763494         Baht to the dollar.......... Trust me I am not a doctor

[1FinickyOne]

It has been in a trading range for a long time... if it is truly a large check, then one of the ways that people handle this type of risk is to spread the investment transfer out over time. Transferring money does not have to be an all or nothing deal... 

 

There is some talk of increased bumps in interest rates this year in USA which would normally drive the dollar higher... other factors will drive it lower... just remember that where it is at now, is the market value - in simple terms, meaning half the money is betting it will go higher and half the money betting it will go lower... 

[jimmyyy]

half now half later, i like that idea.  thanks!

[1FinickyOne]

1 minute ago, jimmyyy said:

half now half later, i like that idea.  thanks!

 

It can even be 20% or however you like... depending upon the amount of the check, you have to take into account the cost of the wire...

 

people will often pick regular intervals, depending upon the need for funds here. Keeping some % in US $ may also not be a bad idea, certainly dependent on the certainty of your using it here... you will never gain by going in and then out of a currency... 

[Jeffrey346]

Trump said the $$ is too strong for trade purposes and it started to fall on Tuesday. I wouldn't expect the $$ to get near B36 in the near future..

[alex8912]

The difference between 35.50 or 36 baht to dollar on 100 grand is $1400.  Really no big deal.  If 1  million I would split it up a few times but why on earth would you want a million or more $$ in a Thai bank account anyways. 

Edited January 19, 2017 by alex8912

[little mary sunshine]

Just guessing, after the inauguration I feel it

will top out at 36..... I will cash in at 36!!!!

[al007]

No way is it possible to give you a valid answer without lots more information

 

Do you have regular other income coming into Thailand

 

This sum, what do you plan to do with it over what period

 

Where are you planning on living for the rest of your life

 

Where do you want to invest Thailand or USA

 

Generally I believe the USA economy is stronger over the next 5/7 yrs than the Thai economy, and that translates to stronger Dollar VS Thai batt

 

If you want a telephone discussion PM me and I will give you my tel no, I am but a simple retired Chartered Accountant, and seek no reward

[bluebluewater]

3 hours ago, jimmyyy said:

half now half later, i like that idea.  thanks!

 

You could not think of that yourself?

[lifeincnx]

Depending on how large the transfer amount is, you may want to seek the advice of outside financial counsel...

Accurate Foreign Exchange Rates for Future Trades

 

[catinthehat]

If you have a $$ account here just drop it there until the exchange rate suits you. When any salary funds in from abroad arrive I do not pay any fee. Also when we transfer to another (same bank THB account, no fee) You will have to pay fees when you move it as $$ once it is there. There will be a fee to make the initial deposit when you open it. Of course the wee interest sucks.

 

That is unless you already have a $$ account.

[BaiLao]

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency/forecast

[connda]

Trump has indicated that a strong dollar is a problem for balancing the trade deficit.  With his plans to encourage companies to manufacture in the US, a weaker dollar can help US exports in the long term.  At the same time the Thai baht seems to be strengthening too.  So my crystal ball says that we'll see a weakening dollar and a relatively strong baht.  However, its just my humble opinion.  

[streetlite]

Just got 34.9 0n the exchange.

[smotherb]

5 hours ago, alex8912 said:

The difference between 35.50 or 36 baht to dollar on 100 grand is $1400.  Really no big deal.  If 1  million I would split it up a few times but why on earth would you want a million or more $$ in a Thai bank account anyways. 

I suspect you may have a few extra zeroes in your mind than he has on his check

[johnmcc6]

Good luck trying to cash a check in Thailand . Unless it is from a Thai bank you will never cash it here. Tried a couple of times in the past B K Bank. Not a chance.

[abrahamzvi]

I am not a prophet, nor a currency speculator, but the US$ seems to be weakening, mostly due to President Elects Trrup's stated views that the $ is too strong. It does damage the chances of US manufacturers in as much as it makes American exports more expensive and imports cheaper. I personally wouldn't bank on the exchange rate of 1$=BHT35.50, let alone 36.00. My personal view, and I may be absolutely wrong, is that by the end of the months  - mid February the $ will equal just over BHT35.

[Grubster]

2 hours ago, streetlite said:

Just got 34.9 0n the exchange.

you got took

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

The Trump effect on the USD is off set by the increase in US interest rates. Yellen is hell bend on further increases which could counter Trumps attemps to get it lower. This makes the near term prediction of the USD movements difficult. I would have put the money in a BKK bank USD account and convert it to Baht when the exchange rate is favourable or when you need it. 

[captpkapoor]

5 hours ago, catinthehat said:

If you have a $$ account here just drop it there until the exchange rate suits you. When any salary funds in from abroad arrive I do not pay any fee. Also when we transfer to another (same bank THB account, no fee) You will have to pay fees when you move it as $$ once it is there. There will be a fee to make the initial deposit when you open it. Of course the wee interest sucks.

 

That is unless you already have a $$ account.

I'm regularly getting hit for $ 50 on each salary funds from abroad, how is it that you're not? I'm using BBL.

 

[little mary sunshine]

1 minute ago, captpkapoor said:

I'm regularly getting hit for $ 50 on each salary funds from abroad, how is it that you're not? I'm using BBL.

 

 

 

My my neighbor goes to the United States twice a year.  Brings

back 9990 dollars each time...legal to do,  she has a safe in

her home, takes $1500 to TT exchange monthly, great rates and

never fees of any kind....Smart lady!!

[Srikcir]

3 hours ago, connda said:

Trump has indicated that a strong dollar is a problem for balancing the trade deficit.  With his plans to encourage companies to manufacture in the US, a weaker dollar can help US exports in the long term.  At the same time the Thai baht seems to be strengthening too.  So my crystal ball says that we'll see a weakening dollar and a relatively strong baht.  However, its just my humble opinion.  

Trump's trade deficit strategy may be flawed and result in a greater trade deficit.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-trump-will-make-the-trade-deficit-larger-not-smaller-2016-11-25

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2016/12/03/donald-trumps-trade-policies-blessing-or-curse/#9bcb9236083f

Value of USD goes down.

The problem with predicting Trump's trade policies is that thus far they are announced in very truncated and sometimes perplexing format (tweets) that makes them difficult to relate to current global economics. When money markets get "spooked" by erraic monetary behavior, investors become very conservative - the dollar drops in value while inflation (and possibly unemployment) is driven upwards.

 But the baht doesn't always fluctuate in concert (proportional or inversely) with the USD. In 2015 US was Thailand's top export trade partner. But seven of the top 10 trade partners are in Asia (excluding India) such as China and Japan.

http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_thailand_exports.html

Predicting baht rates depends on a basket of global currencies that could nuetralize any advantage a weaker USD might have on baht rates. Then there is the BOT essentially manipulating the baht rates to keep them high as a show of a strong Thai economy, aka cheer the junta.

I believe another poster suggested, hold your US funds in a dollar account and as baht currency rates become lucrative, do a (25-50%) cash out.

[Langsuan Man]

Anecdotal evidence;  every time I have chased the exchange rate I have lost

 

Just do it and be done with it 

[zaZa9]

If you are converting it straight to baht ,  make sure you check the dollar to baht exchange rate in the US , or off shore country , and compare to  the exchange rate here in Thailand at the Bank you land it at.

My bet is that the rate will be better here.

If you are using your off shore bank to send the money , Triple Check that it is arriving in $US .

Twice my bank has rushed to convert my money before sending it , despite my clear instructions.

Infuriating.