Scotland's Sturgeon says: I can win an independence vote

[rockingrobin]

5 hours ago, rockingrobin said:

That is not accurate, sure there are some deficits, but the simplest option would be to join EFTA.

Personally I dont see the EU acting irrationally , basically expelling an independent Scotland , taking into consideration the people of Scotland have EU rights and EU citizens have rights in Scotland.

As the treaties themselves dont deal with such a situation there is room to maneuver. Since a country who wishes to leave is given 2 years to negotiate, it would seem only logical that a similar scenario will be applied. 

 

36 minutes ago, nontabury said:

It would not be a case of EXPELLING an independent Scotland,for the simple reason that Scotland Is not a member of the EU. The U.K. Is the member.

 Scotland would have to apply,

Some people think it would go to the back of the queue, personnaly I don't see that,it would Possible be given priority entry,say within a couple of years. That is of course if Scotland were able to pass  the financial requirements of a new member. Unfortunately that does not seem likely.

And let's not forget the real possibility, that maybe the E.U will not be in existence in a few years.

 

There appears to be some misunderstanding of the EU , there is no queue as evidenced by Turkey and subsequent enlargement.

There is no automatic adoption of the euro, it is a matter for national governments and to qualify entry to and succesfull operation of ERM 2 for two years .As evidenced by Sweden who continual reject the euro.

What are the financial requirements to join the EU

There are a number of  ways Scotland could take to maintaining its EU status, whether  thats by full membership, associate agreement, EEA route 

[evadgib]

Quote

There are a number of  ways Scotland could take to maintaining its EU status, whether thats by full membership, associate agreement, EEA route 

Scotland will not be retaining EU status under any circumstances. The only region that might receive exemption acceptable to all parties is Gibraltar but that is nothing more than wishful thinking on my part providing their status as an overseas territory isn't compromised.

[pitrevie]

8 hours ago, overherebc said:

As far as Seaweed and her followers go some parts of the old Spike Milligan show Q8 spring to mind. Especially where a sketch ended and they all milled about muttering 'what are we going to do now, what are we going to do now'

That's how I picture a yes vote for independence.

Yeah I know exactly what you mean, watching Boris Johnson on June 24th last year that was the impression I got.

[Baerboxer]

 

She also said she could personally block Brexit after her first meeting with Mrs. May.

 

She also said Scotland can leave the UK before Brexit and remain in the EU - to which the EU Commission and EU leaders have repeatedly stated that Scotland can't. It has no membership, only as part of the UK's.

 

She refuses to answer questions on what the Scottish currency would be, how she will fund her big spending without subsidies from the UK and EU. 

 

If you want to be a small country, not part of the UK with a now hard border with your biggest trading partner; not part of the EU with considerable hurdles and requirements for meeting the application for membership criteria; without knowing the actual plans of the new ruling party for taxation, austerity, and finances, then hey oh vote SNP and keep smiling.

 

 

[rockingrobin]

45 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Scotland will not be retaining EU status under any circumstances. The only region that might receive exemption acceptable to all parties is Gibraltar but that is nothing more than wishful thinking on my part providing their status as an overseas territory isn't compromised.

You may find the idea that Scotland retaining some form of EU status impossible, but can you clarify your reasoning on why 

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, rockingrobin said:

 

There appears to be some misunderstanding of the EU , there is no queue as evidenced by Turkey and subsequent enlargement.

There is no automatic adoption of the euro, it is a matter for national governments and to qualify entry to and succesfull operation of ERM 2 for two years .As evidenced by Sweden who continual reject the euro.

What are the financial requirements to join the EU

There are a number of  ways Scotland could take to maintaining its EU status, whether  thats by full membership, associate agreement, EEA route 

 

Yep, and you also appear not to understand.

 

Scotland in not an independent country. It part of the UK and would cease to be a member of either should it leave the UK. As an independent country Scotland could apply for EU membership. There is nothing to suggest application are processed sequentially rather than simultaneously.

 

All new applicants must accept the Euro. (Scotland will not have the GBP or the Euro on leaving the UK btw); they must accept EU law jurisdiction as well as Schengen and meet the more stringent financial requirement. Then they must receive the unanimous support of all the current member states.

 

Sturgeon and the SNP continue to peddle that they can "remain" and try to ignore the fact they aren't actually an individual member. They have been told by the EU leaders and the EC Commission this won't happen and that they will leave the EU when the UK does or before should they leave the UK earlier.

 

The former Belgian PM and chief EU negotiator has said the all British people will be entitles to EU citizenship should the want it. Nothing to do with the SNP or Scotland being treated special.

 

But of course, should you wish to believe the SNP version of reality then you are free to do so.

[Baerboxer]

3 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

You may find the idea that Scotland retaining some form of EU status impossible, but can you clarify your reasoning on why 

 

The EC Commission and leadership have confirmed that. You can research it if you're interested.

[rockingrobin]

9 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Yep, and you also appear not to understand.

 

Scotland in not an independent country. It part of the UK and would cease to be a member of either should it leave the UK. As an independent country Scotland could apply for EU membership. There is nothing to suggest application are processed sequentially rather than simultaneously.

 

All new applicants must accept the Euro. (Scotland will not have the GBP or the Euro on leaving the UK btw); they must accept EU law jurisdiction as well as Schengen and meet the more stringent financial requirement. Then they must receive the unanimous support of all the current member states.

 

Sturgeon and the SNP continue to peddle that they can "remain" and try to ignore the fact they aren't actually an individual member. They have been told by the EU leaders and the EC Commission this won't happen and that they will leave the EU when the UK does or before should they leave the UK earlier.

 

The former Belgian PM and chief EU negotiator has said the all British people will be entitles to EU citizenship should the want it. Nothing to do with the SNP or Scotland being treated special.

 

But of course, should you wish to believe the SNP version of reality then you are free to do so.

looking at the treatiese they do not have to accept the euro or shengen,

You are welcome to provide evidence to the contrary

[evadgib]

Quote

You may find the idea that Scotland retaining some form of EU status impossible, but can you clarify your reasoning on why

Because NI (Sinn Fein/IRA), Parts of London, the odd village in Wales or a bloke from East Cheam will all jump on the bandwagon if HMG allow the tail to wag the dog.

 

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, Baerboxer said:

 

The EC Commission and leadership have confirmed that. You can research it if you're interested.

Tory imposed austerity and all the pain that has gone with it shows no sign of abating. The likelihood of the Tories winning the next election has never seemed higher, and despite the attempts of the pro-Brexit crowd to put a positive spin on the short term economic future of the UK, there is very little to feel optimistic about post Article 50.

 

So we might have a couple of tough years post UK and pre EU? If we stay with the status quo, things are not just going to carry on as sh!t at they currently are in Tory Britain, they will get undoubtedly worse. For me, that is of far higher significance. All the EU scaremongering in the world seems much more appealing than another 10 years of Teresa.  

[RuamRudy]

4 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Because NI (Sinn Fein/IRA), Parts of London, the odd village in Wales or a bloke from East Cheam will all jump on the bandwagon if HMG allow the tail to wag the dog.

Well said - because that is how it is. Scotland, Northern Ireland, your bloke in East Cheam - their wishes don't matter one little jot. Whatever the English want, the rest have to go along with it whether they like it or not, because they are merely the extremities.

[7by7]

5 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

looking at the treatiese they do not have to accept the euro or shengen,

You are welcome to provide evidence to the contrary

Conditions for membership

Quote

Membership criteria – Who can join?

The Treaty on the European Union states that any European country may apply for membership if it respects the democratic values of the EU and is committed to promoting them.

The first step is for the country to meet the key criteria for accession. These were mainly defined at the European Council in Copenhagen in 1993 and are hence referred to as 'Copenhagen criteria'. Countries wishing to join need to have:

• stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
• a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;
• the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

(7by7 emphasis)

 

[evadgib]

11 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Well said - because that is how it is. Scotland, Northern Ireland, your bloke in East Cheam - their wishes don't matter one little jot. Whatever the English want, the rest have to go along with it whether they like it or not, because they are merely the extremities.

Not quite. It was what the majority voted for under rules that all seemed happy with until the vote went the wrong way. It's called democracy.

 

I'm off shortly to watch a little more of it (PMQ's) on TV 

[7by7]

5 minutes ago, evadgib said:

Not quite. It was what the majority voted for under rules that all seemed happy with until the vote went the wrong way. It's called democracy.

 Indeed.

 

The same as Indyref1. The SNP were happy with the rules for that; indeed they set the rules for that!

 

Including that it would be a final decision for at least a generation.

 

Until they lost!

[evadgib]

16 year olds an' all!

[RuamRudy]

9 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

The first step is for the country to meet the key criteria for accession. These were mainly defined at the European Council in Copenhagen in 1993 and are hence referred to as 'Copenhagen criteria'. Countries wishing to join need to have:

• stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
• a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;
• the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

(7by7 emphasis)

 

I think it is deliberately written this way - adherence to the aims of the articles rather than adherence to the articles themselves. This way, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden can remain in the Eu without adopting the Euro. Admittedly, Denmark has the same excemption as the UK, however the rest do not but make no effort towards accepting the Euro.

[rockingrobin]

13 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

Conditions for membership

 

The convergence  criteria has to be met before a member can adopt the euro.One of thee conditions is participation in ERM2, which is voluntary.

Poland and Hungary have not adopted the euro

[dabhand]

Latest Yougov poll does not make good reading for NS. Shows a 57/43 lead for the Unionists. This is the highest polling for the No vote since August 2014. The poll, though, did not include the 16/17yo who tend to have higher numbers voting Yes. But would only have a marginal affect on the overall outcome. Plus the polling will likely have taken place prior to the announcement by NS.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/15/scottish-independence-voting-intention-no-57-yes-4/

With Nicola Sturgeon putting Scottish independence back on the table at a speech earlier this week, the results of the latest Times/YouGov Scottish independence survey now show a headline voting intention of 57% for No and 43% for Yes.

 

A concern she should have is that some of the 'soft' Yes voters may remain on the fence this time around until the early effects of Brexit are known. They will consider that the neverendums will continue. Whereas a Yes vote is unlikely to be subject to a further vote anytime soon.

[RuamRudy]

10 minutes ago, dabhand said:

Latest Yougov poll does not make good reading for NS. Shows a 57/43 lead for the Unionists. This is the highest polling for the No vote since August 2014. The poll, though, did not include the 16/17yo who tend to have higher numbers voting Yes. But would only have a marginal affect on the overall outcome. Plus the polling will likely have taken place prior to the announcement by NS.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/15/scottish-independence-voting-intention-no-57-yes-4/

With Nicola Sturgeon putting Scottish independence back on the table at a speech earlier this week, the results of the latest Times/YouGov Scottish independence survey now show a headline voting intention of 57% for No and 43% for Yes.

 

A concern she should have is that some of the 'soft' Yes voters may remain on the fence this time around until the early effects of Brexit are known. They will consider that the neverendums will continue. Whereas a Yes vote is unlikely to be subject to a further vote anytime soon.

In 2012, when the previous referendum was kicked off, support for independence was around 28%. Since 2014 it has remained at mid 40s and no date yet for round 2. That is a fantastic base to launch the next campaign from.

 

Add to that the likelihood of another decade of Tory austerity, continuing creeping privatisation, an unpopular Brexit etc etc - so many things for the SNP to work with.

[overherebc]

2 hours ago, pitrevie said:

Yeah I know exactly what you mean, watching Boris Johnson on June 24th last year that was the impression I got.

Can't and won't argue with you.

?

[dabhand]

4 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

In 2012, when the previous referendum was kicked off, support for independence was around 28%. Since 2014 it has remained at mid 40s and no date yet for round 2. That is a fantastic base to launch the next campaign from.

 

Add to that the likelihood of another decade of Tory austerity, continuing creeping privatisation, an unpopular Brexit etc etc - so many things for the SNP to work with.

Would be interested in where you source your 28% support figure from. Looking at this source:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-agree-that-scotland-should-be-an-independent-country#table

 

Out of the 8 polls taken in 2012, 5 had Yes votes of 44% to 47% with a low of 34% in the other 3, excluding DK's of course.
 

[7by7]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

I think it is deliberately written this way - adherence to the aims of the articles rather than adherence to the articles themselves. This way, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden can remain in the Eu without adopting the Euro. Admittedly, Denmark has the same excemption as the UK, however the rest do not but make no effort towards accepting the Euro.

 

1 hour ago, rockingrobin said:

The convergence  criteria has to be met before a member can adopt the euro.One of thee conditions is participation in ERM2, which is voluntary.

Poland and Hungary have not adopted the euro

 

Denmark negotiated the same opt out from the Euro as the UK. This was an option for members at the time.

 

All others, including new members, have to commit to monetary union, i.e. adopting the Euro, when the conditions are met.

 

But what options on currency would an independent Scotland have?

 

Keep Sterling and have their fiscal policy controlled by the Bank of England and Westminster?

 

Adopt the Euro and have their fiscal policy controlled by the EU?

 

Adopt their own currency?

 

 

[RuamRudy]

6 minutes ago, dabhand said:

Would be interested in where you source your 28% support figure from. Looking at this source:

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-agree-that-scotland-should-be-an-independent-country#table

 

Out of the 8 polls taken in 2012, 5 had Yes votes of 44% to 47% with a low of 34% in the other 3, excluding DK's of course.
 

My apologies - I was off by a year and off by 1%. The poll was a YouGov survey for the Sun in 2011.

 

"Since the election we have conducted new polling on Scottish independence for the Sun, asking the opinions of both the Scottish public, and people in England and Wales.

• In Scotland 29% of people support Independence
• 58% of people were opposed

These results are almost identical to when we asked questions on how people would vote in a referendum on independence for Scotsman prior to the election, suggesting that the SNP's victory has not vastly altered attitudes towards independence."

 

[dabhand]

14 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

My apologies - I was off by a year and off by 1%. The poll was a YouGov survey for the Sun in 2011.

 

"Since the election we have conducted new polling on Scottish independence for the Sun, asking the opinions of both the Scottish public, and people in England and Wales.

• In Scotland 29% of people support Independence
• 58% of people were opposed

These results are almost identical to when we asked questions on how people would vote in a referendum on independence for Scotsman prior to the election, suggesting that the SNP's victory has not vastly altered attitudes towards independence."

 

I know it might be considered as splitting hairs but the poll you quote actually equates to 33% Indy support, after adjusting for DK's. So actually off by 5%.

In addition, the IndyRef1 did kick off in 2012, as you noted in your earlier post. Using May 2011, the date of the poll you have referenced, as the start date is a bit of a stretch.

 

Apart from that, you are spot on.

[Mosha]

Good news is pro independence sentiment is up, but. ... 555

http://bbc.in/2msaCYH

There is a petition against a referendum and it has enough signatures to be discussed in Parliament.

Sent from my iris 505 using Tapatalk

[Basil B]

She has a one track mind...

 

 

Probably the paper will cost more than it's monetary value. 

[rockingrobin]

59 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

 

Denmark negotiated the same opt out from the Euro as the UK. This was an option for members at the time.

 

All others, including new members, have to commit to monetary union, i.e. adopting the Euro, when the conditions are met.

 

But what options on currency would an independent Scotland have?

 

Keep Sterling and have their fiscal policy controlled by the Bank of England and Westminster?

 

Adopt the Euro and have their fiscal policy controlled by the EU?

 

Adopt their own currency?

 

 

Sweden provides the answer to the euro adoption question.Sweden accession  treaty commits them to EMU, but the people reject the euro via referendum and as such Sweden doesnt participate in ERM2

During an Economic and Affairs meeting this issue was raised and  Economic Affairs Commissioner Designate Olli Rehn's response

 

Several MEPs asked about Eurozone enlargement. Arturs Krišjănis Karinš (EPP, LV) asked about the timetable. Mr Rehn confirmed that the next country to join the zone will most probably be Estonia, and stressed that all timetables are dependent on the rules laid down in the Treaties.

 

Olle Schmidt (ALDE, SE) inquired whether Sweden could still stay out of the Eurozone. Mr Rehn replied that it is up to the Swedish people to decide on the issue.

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20120118074039/http://www.europarl.europa.eu/hearings/press_service/product.htm?ref=20100108IPR66990&language=EN

[citybiker]

Independent analysis versus SNP fiscal policies.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/indyref2-independent-scotland-would-face-11bn-deficit-economist-1-4392517

Hope the article sources are factual as this could be a tactile but gentle reminder to the SNP and the electorate..


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[anon4546543]

IMHO it would be prudent for Scotland to wait and see what the Brexit deal means for the entire UK. Then consider whether to opt for some different outcome.

Sturgeon is only interested in her personal outcome, she wants to upgrade her position to president.

As I see it, Scotland would have to apply for EU membership if it did get independence. This would take perhaps 5 years. The EU would have to consider Scotlands' ability to contribute to the Union as already the EU has so many failed states. I don't think it would pass any economic benefit test to EU. The current debate is costing UK millions, the whole idea is bordering on treasonous. 

[RuamRudy]

58 minutes ago, citybiker said:

Independent analysis versus SNP fiscal policies.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/indyref2-independent-scotland-would-face-11bn-deficit-economist-1-4392517

Hope the article sources are factual as this could be a tactile but gentle reminder to the SNP and the electorate..


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Whilst I don't want to suggest that anyone is blind to the fact that Scotland requires to restructure its finances and spending in a radical and, quite probably, painful manner, it is not correct to suggest that Professor McLaren, the author of the report in question, has no skin in the game.

 

On the positive side, figures out today show unemployment down in Scotland by 16,000 and our jobless rate is now comparable with the UK as a whole.