Lessons From Tuesday 19/12

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

Having bought Thai Airways and Bangkok Bank only last friday, I was about THB 1 million down yesterday.

Once again Thailand was trying to push the international capital markets around, and you can't do that unless you're OPEC or the Federal Reserve.

I learned a valuable lesson though yesterday, because I was thinking about bringing more money into the country (nothwithstanding the advice of that fat French freak Butterfly who was averse to the idea). Now I won't, you jusr can't do business with people who are trying to be 'cute' .

[Gary A]

Having bought Thai Airways and Bangkok Bank only last friday, I was about THB 1 million down yesterday.

Once again Thailand was trying to push the international capital markets around, and you can't do that unless you're OPEC or the Federal Reserve.

I learned a valuable lesson though yesterday, because I was thinking about bringing more money into the country (nothwithstanding the advice of that fat French freak Butterfly who was averse to the idea). Now I won't, you jusr can't do business with people who are trying to be 'cute' .

Well Barney, if you didn't panic you more than likely got most of it back today. I'm perfectly content to live here but investing here is out of the question for me.

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

Yes i'm not worried about recouping the losses, as I didn't liquidate.

I imagine though that behind the secretive nominee names who were buying later yesterday afternoon, were the usual 'big hands' who profit whatever happens.

[SeanBangkok]

you lost a million E-Money yesterday? Nice. How long is your E-Penis?

[Barney_the_Dinosaur]

It wasn't meant as a boast. more of a grumble.

Apologies if it came over that way.

[King Dong]

It wasn't meant as a boast. more of a grumble.

Apologies if it came over that way.

It didn't, hes probably just jealous coz hes living off a teachers salary

[pampal]

Many famous stock market crashes have occured on tuesdays.

Who can forget black tuesday in America

[jumnien]

Was today the biggest one-day stock market gain ever in Thailand? Has the US market (DOW) ever had a one-day gain this big? I can't get thru to SET website...

[kokothemonkey]

lessons? yes, dont go to thailand for anything but fun

it is just a very large casino and as in every casino, the house ALWAYS wins

[britmaveric]

Well Barney - hopefully you don't listen to Butterfy any more. (lesson learned)

[Nawtilus]

Koko, why dont you go and start another thread on all of this...go on, be a good boy and toddle off.

You never lose until you sell, so simply saying you are down 1 million is not really correct, unless of course you panicked and sold, but you said you did not, so why whine about it.

I bought some stock in Oz several years ago now, I am not a big stock follower or buyer, a month after I bought it, it dived to half the value. I still have it now, what it is worth I have no idea as I threw it in the drawer and left it, maybe give to the kids in 20 years and it will have rallied and gained 3/4's of its value back !!!!!

[steveromagnino]

lessons? yes, dont go to thailand for anything but fun

it is just a very large casino and as in every casino, the house ALWAYS wins

hmmm odd.

I worked in a casino, and casinos can legally be beaten in certain games, e.g. shuffle tracking, card counting, front loading combined with or without team play for black jack; team play for major jackpots; video poker jackpot play. And sports book obviously favours the educated.

As long as there is 75% penetration; 3:2 blackjacks and double down on anything for anything above double deck, and North Nevada rules (10/11 double down only) on single deck, for me personally even without a team I can usually find a postive expectation game somewhere in the realm of expected return of around 0.5%-1.2% on money played. Team play merely helps ease the volatility.

As far as this fairly moronic implementation of a not particulaly idea; yep it hurt but anyone who thinks this is a reason to never invest in the Thai stock market is, well, bonkers. The volatility is why the P/Es in developing markets are where they are; and that's why when I buy a stock with a beta of 2, I BETTER be expecting to significantly outperform the market.

Risk vs. return; and as a side note; the main share I have significant holding in now, RCL is still well above where i bought it at, and the last little bit of PSL is so far above the price I paid (as in like low 30s) earlier this year, that this whole thing has been a minor dent.

Some friends have not lost; they were buying like crazy in the first afternoon. Still....a timely reminder of risks involved. If you haven't got balls, then don't bother showing up to bat.

[jumnien]

Honestly, I called my broker the day after the slaughter and wanted to know for fun how much I had lost (I estimate it at 6-800,000 baht that day. She said the computer couldn't tell her because trading had already updated for the present day. Anyway, for the two days I'm down about 100,000 baht. Ital-thai was up 25% and AIS up 16% for yesterday helped a lot.

Anyway, in dollar terms, my Thai stocks have performed wonderfully this year as I bought most of the stocks with dollars brought over at 38-41 to the dollar. Still, I would hesitate to encourage anyone to invest in the Thai stock market with money they need to survive and enjoy life. If you enjoy volatility, you will enjoy the SET and for that matter, Thailand. If you dislike unexpected events and enjoy predictability, if you have a strong sense of entitlement and outrage, there are other countries that you might enjoy more.