May could lose majority in UK parliament - YouGov study in The Times

[webfact]

May could lose majority in UK parliament - YouGov study in The Times

 

Prime Minister Theresa May arrives at Sky studios in Osterley, west London to take part in a joint Channel 4 and Sky News general election programme, May 29, 2017. REUTERS/Stefan Rousseau/Pool

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party risks falling short of winning an overall majority of seats in parliament in a national election on June 8, The Times newspaper said on Tuesday, quoting research by polling firm YouGov.

 

In contrast to signs from a string of opinion polls that have suggested May's Conservatives will increase their majority, the new constituency-by-constituency modelling by YouGov showed it might lose 20 of the 330 seats it holds and the opposition Labour Party could gain nearly 30 seats, The Times said.

 

That could leave the Conservatives 16 seats short of the overall majority of 326 needed to govern without the support of other parties, the newspaper said.

 

(Writing by William Schomberg, editing by G Crosse)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-05-31

[webfact]

UK PM May's election landslide in doubt as poll lead slips

By Costas Pitas and Andy Bruce

REUTERS

 

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May attends a campaign event in Twickenham, London, May 29, 2017. REUTERS/Leon Neal/Pool

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May's ability to deliver a landslide majority in the June 8 election was in doubt on Tuesday after two more opinion polls showed the vote could be much tighter than previously thought.

 

A total of seven polls carried out since the May 22 Manchester attack have shown May's lead over the opposition Labour Party narrowing, with some suggesting she might not win the landslide predicted just a month ago.

 

A poll conducted by Survation for ITV's Good Morning Britain programme showed May's lead had dropped to 6 percentage points from 9 points a week ago and 18 points two weeks ago.

 

An ICM poll for the Guardian showed May with a 12-point lead - enough for a big majority of around 100 but down two points from last week and a far cry from the record 22-point lead earlier this month.

 

"Three weeks ago this was the easiest election to call in history," Martin Boon, ICM's director, told Reuters.

 

"But since the manifestos were launched, there's been a rapid tumbling in the gap between the Conservatives and Labour," he said, referring to the pre-election pledges of the main parties.

 

May's poll lead started to contract sharply after she set out plans on May 18 to make some elderly people pay a greater share of their care costs, a proposal dubbed the "dementia tax" by opponents.

 

As her lead shrank, May was forced to backtrack on the policy at an appearance before the media on Monday at which she appeared flustered and irritated when taking questions from reporters.

 

The polls so far have been hard to decipher with both the unpopular social care pledge and the May 22 suicide attack in Manchester influencing voter intentions.

 

Sterling fell on Friday on concerns May's lead was under pressure but climbed to the day's high against the dollar on Tuesday after the ICM poll.

 

May called the snap election in a bid to strengthen her hand in negotiations on Britain's exit from the European Union, to win more time to deal with the impact of the divorce and to strengthen her grip on the Conservative Party.

 

But unless she handsomely beats the 12-seat majority her predecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed, and her authority could be undermined just as she enters formal Brexit negotiations.

 

Labour commands a big lead among young Britons, but recent votes show they are the least likely to go to the polling stations.

 

"We shouldn't write off the thought that young people will turn out for this election (in large numbers) - but I think it's unlikely," Boon said.

 

Both the Survation and ICM polls were conducted in the aftermath of a suicide bombing which killed 22 people in Manchester last Monday.

 

It is still unclear how much Britain knew about suicide bomber Salman Abedi before he carried out the deadliest militant attack on British soil for 12 years. May was interior minister from 2010 to 2016.

 

The ICM poll showed 53 percent of Britons thought May handled the situation well. Only 17 percent disagreed.

 

The Survation poll found just over half of the 1,009 respondents thought May would make the best prime minister, whilst support for Labour's Jeremy Corbyn stood at just 30 percent, albeit higher than in previous surveys.

 

(Reporting by Costas Pitas; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Guy Faulconbridge)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-05-31

[darksidedog]

It seems of late voters everywhere are having to make a choice, less from whom they like, and more from whom they dislike the least.

[Fulwell53]

49 minutes ago, darksidedog said:

It seems of late voters everywhere are having to make a choice, less from whom they like, and more from whom they dislike the least.

Very stark times we live in.

The likes of blair have tainted labour for ever and a day. Bill Clinton pretty much a clone of same in usa.

What amazes me in the past few years is the growth of massive corporations who are getting away with massive tax avoidance/evasion and governments arent doing a thing about it regardless of their persuasion.

Thankfully the longer trump is in power the more corbyn starts to look an attractive proposition

[John1012]

If this stupid dithering person had opted for invoking article 50 on the day of her election as PM, then none of this would have occurred. If this person causes the loss of the overall majority in the commons then she should immediately resign as PM, and vacate her seat in parliament, causing a bye election. It is totally her fault.

 

[brewsterbudgen]

14 minutes ago, John1012 said:

If this stupid dithering person had opted for invoking article 50 on the day of her election as PM, then none of this would have occurred. If this person causes the loss of the overall majority in the commons then she should immediately resign as PM, and vacate her seat in parliament, causing a bye election. It is totally her fault.

 

What a fantastic scenario!  I was dreading 8 June, but maybe we're in a for a Trump-style upset!  

[bert bloggs]

Yes and the moon is made of green cheese ,forget it 

[brewsterbudgen]

1 minute ago, bert bloggs said:

Yes and the moon is made of green cheese ,forget it 

You're probably right...

[terryw]

The Tories will get a 50 seat majority. The next week will expose Labour's policies as unrealistic.

[HauptmannUK]

A lot of voters in the UK still remember May as a dreadful Home Secretary and the architect of the current immigration shambles.  Cameron kept her in the Home Office when others wanted her sacked - she was kept on because she was an unquestioning Cameron loyalist. She presided over the highest immigration (including non-EU) in British history, reduced the police force by 20000 and almost halved border security staff numbers (which led to the surge in illegals from Calais). She also cut UKPS staff (remember the passport renewal fiasco?).  In fact its hard to think of anything positive to say about the woman - she is clearly out of her depth as PM.

[pegman]

May and her Cons deserve to be bounced from governing. It was shear lunacy having that Brexit vote that will surely put on end to the UK as it was constituted and see the rump England stuck in a crippling depression once the EU's financial industry leaves The City for Frankfurt. 

[Orton Rd]

In a way it would be good if labour won and Abbot became home secretary, she would provide endless laughs as she is totally incompetent, and probably slightly demented.

[jvs]

Yes you can all believe what the polls say,just look at a few votes/elections not so long ago.

[HauptmannUK]

17 minutes ago, jvs said:

Yes you can all believe what the polls say,just look at a few votes/elections not so long ago.

I'm sure the Conservatives will win, but the whole reason for May calling this election was to boost her majority and 'strengthen her hand' for Brexit. That increasing looks to have been a miscalculation and is just adding further uncertainty and reducing the time available for serious Brexit negotiation.

[RuamRudy]

15 minutes ago, HauptmannUK said:

I'm sure the Conservatives will win, but the whole reason for May calling this election was to boost her majority and 'strengthen her hand' for Brexit. That increasing looks to have been a miscalculation and is just adding further uncertainty and reducing the time available for serious Brexit negotiation.

I suspect that you are right, but I cannot help but think that the article in the Times comes with full CCHQ backing - panic mode at the realisation that the predicted shoo-in has fallen flat on its face; now scare the Tory voters into turing out. I fully expect wall to wall photos of Corbyn with Gerry Adams dominating the airwaves for the next week.

[AGareth2]

I like Rudd

always had a thing for Cheltenham ladies

[pegman]

26 minutes ago, HauptmannUK said:

I'm sure the Conservatives will win, but the whole reason for May calling this election was to boost her majority and 'strengthen her hand' for Brexit. That increasing looks to have been a miscalculation and is just adding further uncertainty and reducing the time available for serious Brexit negotiation.

Just like May thought she would surely get a bigger majority and Cameron was sure he had a Brexit vote in the bag. The trend is her losing.

[phutoie2]

Not going to happen, as much as I like JC, and some of the policies, the English shires will win it comfortably for PM May, you could attach a blue rosette to a donkey in those constituencies and it would still walk it.

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, pegman said:

May and her Cons deserve to be bounced from governing. It was shear lunacy having that Brexit vote that will surely put on end to the UK as it was constituted and see the rump England stuck in a crippling depression once the EU's financial industry leaves The City for Frankfurt. 

I assume that you tried to say put an end to the UK as it was constituted , whatever that means. But it is the UK constitution that has been abused by joining the EEC in the first place by Treasonous Ted.  

[RuamRudy]

For a man who has been ridiculed and traduced for the best part of 2 years, JC seems to be playing a blinder at the moment.

 

Jeremy Corbyn to take part in seven-way TV debate

"Confirming he would be taking part, Mr Corbyn criticised the Tories for what he called "a stage-managed arms-length campaign".

"Refusing to join me in Cambridge tonight would be another sign of Theresa May's weakness, not strength," he added.

[dunroaming]

This is not a matter of Labour gaining ground, it is about May losing ground.  This latest "poll" will just get more Tory voters out on the day.  I feel that lowering the Conservatives majority is a good thing but nothing will improve May's chances of pulling off a successful Brexit.

[brewsterbudgen]

For a man who has been ridiculed and traduced for the best part of 2 years, JC seems to be playing a blinder at the moment.
 
Jeremy Corbyn to take part in seven-way TV debate
"Confirming he would be taking part, Mr Corbyn criticised the Tories for what he called "a stage-managed arms-length campaign".

"Refusing to join me in Cambridge tonight would be another sign of Theresa May's weakness, not strength," he added.

Astute move by JC. May's reputation is being reduced by the day. If she comes out of this with a reduced majority I trust she will resign.

[RuamRudy]

Just now, brewsterbudgen said:

Astute move by JC. May's reputation is being reduced by the day. If she comes out of this with a reduced majority I trust she will resign.

I wonder has he been planning this all along, practicing and rehearsing in secret? Regardless of how TM reacts, she looks bad over this - if she agrees to participate, it will seem that he is calling the shots; if she doesn't now appear, she is branded a coward.

[partington]

10 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Astute move by JC. May's reputation is being reduced by the day. If she comes out of this with a reduced majority I trust she will resign.

It can hardly be reduced, but a 20 to maybe 35 majority is on the cards. Then she will be got rid of, fairly quickly, by the Tory backroom boys.

 

The good thing is that proper social democratic policies have been put forward by the Labour Party, and shown to be popular, and that JC, far from being the incompetent extremist depicted by the Press,  is a likeable, quietish old stick who actually believes in Labour policies, rather than diluted Thatcherism.

 

Anyone who believes that Labour is hard left: David Owen, ex -SDP leader, recently said Labour's policies were now like the SDP,  and made a donation to the Labour Party.*

 

*caveat: I read this in a comments section underneath a Guardian article, and have not verified it.

Edited May 31, 2017 by partington

[KBsinter]

J.C was recently interviewed by the BBC regarding a childrens allowance scheme she asked him 

how much is the cost,and he did not know !! he started to look in his phone for the figuresI tand still could not come up with a number,he later disclosed at another venue it was 6 billion. I think..............

[dunroaming]

Taking a step back and looking at what the main parties are offering, it appears that Labour and the Lib Dems are promising more money for social care, the NHS and schools and the Tories are offering a hard fought Brexit.  No viable plan from Labour or the Lib Dems of how their pledges are going to be financed and as for the Tories, no plan for how they are going to achieve a successful Brexit.  In other words it's all hot air and empty promises 

[Baerboxer]

13 hours ago, darksidedog said:

It seems of late voters everywhere are having to make a choice, less from whom they like, and more from whom they dislike the least.

 

I was once asked to make a presentation to a group of several "voluntary" early retirees because they said I was the least disliked of the senior managers - a warm feeling!

 

But in the last general election I thought the same. I was voting for the ones who were the least onerous. And sadly, things have got worse rather than better!

 

Spoiled for choice!!

[Baerboxer]

2 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

Taking a step back and looking at what the main parties are offering, it appears that Labour and the Lib Dems are promising more money for social care, the NHS and schools and the Tories are offering a hard fought Brexit.  No viable plan from Labour or the Lib Dems of how their pledges are going to be financed and as for the Tories, no plan for how they are going to achieve a successful Brexit.  In other words it's all hot air and empty promises 

 

Sadly it appears once again we have a Labor leader whose promising all sorts of things, including guaranteeing a Brexit "deal", with zero idea of how it will all be delivered other than mumbling about taxation and screwing anyone with any money.

 

The Tories are, well for all to see, somewhat without much better ideas and detail.

 

Where are the Churchills, Thatchers, Bevans, Atlees, Lloyd Georges when you need them?

 

We get marshmallow Saint Therese and Red under the Bed Jezzer. What a choice.

[pegman]

4 hours ago, dunroaming said:

Taking a step back and looking at what the main parties are offering, it appears that Labour and the Lib Dems are promising more money for social care, the NHS and schools and the Tories are offering a hard fought Brexit.  No viable plan from Labour or the Lib Dems of how their pledges are going to be financed and as for the Tories, no plan for how they are going to achieve a successful Brexit.  In other words it's all hot air and empty promises 

How about you taking a step back to figure out why that is. Maybe, just maybe, no party has a solution to achieving a successful Brexit because there isn't one. Your toast but too stubborn to realize your toast. There is one way out and one way only and you will not for a second contemplate it because you would then be required to admit a mistake. As we all know a proper Englishman would never steep so low as admiring a mistake. The only question remaining is depression or huge recession once the EU financial industry leaves for Frankfurt?   

[beautifulthailand99]

Corbyn - Dare to Dream