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Posted (edited)

 

Quote

 

Today’s complacent markets are faced with a number of potentially destabilizing shocks.

Any one of them could potentially lead to another financial crisis. And the next crisis could see draconian measures by governments that most people are not prepared for today.

what are the catalysts that possibly trigger the next financial crisis?

 

First off, a debt ceiling crisis is just over a month away. If the ceiling isn’t raised by Sept. 29, the federal government is likely to default on at least some of its bills.

If a deal isn’t reached, it could rock markets and possibly trigger a major recession.

 

Second, despite some official comments over the weekend downplaying the odds of a war with North Korea, a shooting war remains a very real possibility.

North Korea’s Kim is determined to acquire nuclear weapons that can threaten the lower 48 U.S. states, and Trump is equally determined to prevent that from happening.

 

Third, a trade war between the U.S. and China seems imminent.

 

 

https://dailyreckoning.com/exposed-elites-plan-freeze-financial-system/

Edited by midas
Posted

555 so easy to identify this as dailyreckoning talk.

The biggest B.S site ever.

 

For last 5 years they predict the collaspse of every currency, probably try to scare punters into buying some financial product

Posted

Well, as the chap has put in a very precise deadline of 29th september, worthy of a gypsy cristal ball....time will tell if his website posts BS or if he has a point?

Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, observer90210 said:

Well, as the chap has put in a very precise deadline of 29th september, worthy of a gypsy cristal ball....time will tell if his website posts BS or if he has a point?

Daily reckoning are always giving these deadlines and doom and gloom predictions. They have ads and links in their emails to even more spurious claims trying to sell stuff.

 

There's been quite a few crises that they didn't spot before they happened.

 

Of the remainder they've probably predicted about 555 % of crises :laugh: 

 

Fletch's prediction: there will be another financial crisis at some point. That will be followed by a bull market LOL 

Edited by fletchsmile
Posted
4 hours ago, fletchsmile said:

Daily reckoning are always giving these deadlines and doom and gloom predictions. They have ads and links in their emails to even more spurious claims trying to sell stuff.

 

There's been quite a few crises that they didn't spot before they happened.

 

Of the remainder they've probably predicted about 555 % of crises :laugh: 

 

Fletch's prediction: there will be another financial crisis at some point. That will be followed by a bull market LOL 

Quite frankly I paid less attention to the source and more regarding the economic reasons behind these predictions simply because the same kind of predictions are also being made by others including the likes of Prof Steve Keen of Kingston University in London and Peter Schiff who both predicted the 2007 financial crisis.

And I am intrigued by your prediction that immediately after the next financial crisis you think there there will be another bull run considering everything they had to do to save the world financial system last time. You should see  the movie "Inside job ' when they discussed how the likes of Hank Paulson and others warned the world would end if they didn’t  pass the Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act of 2008.

So what are they gonna do this time around?:giggle:

Posted
6 hours ago, bamukloy said:

555 so easy to identify this as dailyreckoning talk.

The biggest B.S site ever.

 

For last 5 years they predict the collaspse of every currency, probably try to scare punters into buying some financial product

Whether or not you like the source seems less important than the fact that two out of the three scenarios they described have already deteriorated even further

 

1 China  which is largely expected to rein in North Korea - is already hedging in case North Korea does something impulsive during the massive US war games shortly to begin , suggests the exercise itself could be the provocation that sets Kim off. And set him off, it will: in the past North Korea has reacted strongly during the biannual war games. In 2014, the north fired off scud missiles during the March exercises held by the U.S.-South Korean command, called Foul Eagle

 

2. And USA Default Risk premium has not been this high since Lehman.

 

 

us def.png

Posted (edited)

iceberg ahead !!!:shock1:

 

Tony Schwartz, the man who co-authored Art of the Deal with Donald Trump in 1987, now says that the President will likely resign before the end of the year.

 

Quote

 

I have been warning since long before the election that Trump’s presidency would be the perfect vehicle for central banks and international financiers to divert blame for the economic crisis that would inevitably explode once the Fed moved firmly into interest rate hikes. Every indication since my initial prediction shows that this is the case.

The media was building the foundation of the narrative from the moment Trump won the election. Bloomberg was quick to publish its rather hilariously skewed propaganda on the matter, asserting that Trump was lucky to inherit an economy in ascendance and recovery because of the fiscal ingenuity of Barack Obama. This is of course utter nonsense. Obama and the Fed have created a zombie economy rotting from the inside out, nothing more. But, as Bloomberg noted rightly, any downturn within the system will indeed be blamed on the Trump administration.

Fortune Magazine, adding to the narrative, outlined the view that the initial stock rally surrounding Trump’s election win was merely setting the stage for a surprise market crash.

I continue to go one further than the mainstream media and say that the Trump administration is a giant cement shoe designed (deliberately) to drag conservatives and conservative principles down into the abyss as we are blamed by association for the financial calamity that will occur on Trump’s watch.

If Smith is correct, and all signs seem to be pointing to such a scenario, Trump will blamed for what will likely be the most epic financial collapse in world history. Once those goals are accomplished, a push to remove him from office may become reality

 

 

 

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/art-of-the-deal-coauthor-says-trump-will-resign-by-end-of-the-year-presidency-is-effectively-over-the-circle-is-closing-at-blinding-speed_08182017

Edited by midas
Posted
On 18.8.2017 at 2:51 PM, midas said:

Quite frankly I paid less attention to the source and more regarding the economic reasons behind these predictions simply because the same kind of predictions are also being made by others including the likes of Prof Steve Keen of Kingston University in London and Peter Schiff who both predicted the 2007 financial crisis.

And I am intrigued by your prediction that immediately after the next financial crisis you think there there will be another bull run considering everything they had to do to save the world financial system last time. You should see  the movie "Inside job ' when they discussed how the likes of Hank Paulson and others warned the world would end if they didn’t  pass the Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act of 2008.

So what are they gonna do this time around?:giggle:

Steve Keen and Peter Schiff and a handful of others have predicted the crisis. The rest of the 10'000 "financial-advisors" have not.

Cheers. See post below.

Posted

I too have my favorite theories. But at the end of the day, it's all about reading Tea-Leaves or gazing into Crystal-Balls.


There are only 2 things that are indisputable:


- Nobody knows the future.
- The 4th world war will be faught with wooden clubs and bows and arrows by the few warriors left.


Cheers.

Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, swissie said:

I too have my favorite theories. But at the end of the day, it's all about reading Tea-Leaves or gazing into Crystal-Balls.


There are only 2 things that are indisputable:


- Nobody knows the future.
- The 4th world war will be faught with wooden clubs and bows and arrows by the few warriors left.


Cheers.

:giggle:mmmm............ I think it's a little bit more apparent than that otherwise stock market investors may just as well go to the casino ............

I mean Steve Bannon says the Trump presidency as everyone expected is over and it's very unlikely there will be any tax breaks-so what is left to keep the euphoria going?

Interestingly even the " other side " seem to be dampening people's expectations. This is even what Lord Jacob Rothschild said just last week " We do not believe this is an appropriate time to add to risk. Share prices have in many cases risen to unprecedented levels at a time when economic growth is by no means assured. Geopolitical problems remain widespread and are proving increasingly difficult to resolve." 

 

 

median1.jpg

Edited by midas
Posted (edited)
On 8/18/2017 at 7:51 PM, midas said:

Quite frankly I paid less attention to the source and more regarding the economic reasons behind these predictions simply because the same kind of predictions are also being made by others including the likes of Prof Steve Keen of Kingston University in London and Peter Schiff who both predicted the 2007 financial crisis.

And I am intrigued by your prediction that immediately after the next financial crisis you think there there will be another bull run considering everything they had to do to save the world financial system last time. You should see  the movie "Inside job ' when they discussed how the likes of Hank Paulson and others warned the world would end if they didn’t  pass the Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act of 2008.

So what are they gonna do this time around?:giggle:

I didn't bother reading the article to be honest as I've read so many similar from them in the past. Time is precious and looking at the source can save you much time in what to read or not :smile:

 

On the 1st point. They are always quoting these dates and they usually come and go uneventfully. 

2nd point. Yes war with North Korea is a possibility. Many things in life are possibilities. It's possible you might decide to go for a sex change at Bumrungrad, but I won't be planning my finances around that either.

On the 3rd point, perhaps a trade war seems imminent to them, but not to many others :laugh:

 

Read my words carefully though I didn't say "immediately". The whole point is that the timing'are unpredictable. The next crisis will be followed (at some point) by a bull run though. Unless you're in the camp that it's the end of the world. Even then eventually a new world will form and a new crisis or bull run eventually happen again :giggle:

 

BTW Isn't Tim Price with their group? I've had emails for several years now where he's been predicting the next crash, so read his articles, subscribe to them on what to buy etc etc. In the next few years he will be right though. In the same way I say there will be a bull run after it. Just he'll have had many years of being wrong on the timing first because he has to make things look "urgent" "imminent" or "immediate" so you read his stuff and help him make a living :giggle:

Edited by fletchsmile
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, fletchsmile said:

I didn't bother reading the article to be honest as I've read so many similar from them in the past. Time is precious and looking at the source can save you much time in what to read or not :smile:

 

On the 1st point. They are always quoting these dates and they usually come and go uneventfully. 

2nd point. Yes war with North Korea is a possibility. Many things in life are possibilities. It's possible you might decide to go for a sex change at Bumrungrad, but I won't be planning my finances around that either.

On the 3rd point, perhaps a trade war seems imminent to them, but not to many others :laugh:

 

Read my words carefully though I didn't say "immediately". The whole point is that the timing'are unpredictable. The next crisis will be followed (at some point) by a bull run though. Unless you're in the camp that it's the end of the world. Even then eventually a new world will form and a new crisis or bull run eventually happen again :giggle:

 

BTW Isn't Tim Price with their group? I've had emails for several years now where he's been predicting the next crash, so read his articles, subscribe to them on what to buy etc etc. In the next few years he will be right though. In the same way I say there will be a bull run after it. Just he'll have had many years of being wrong on the timing first because he has to make things look "urgent" "imminent" or "immediate" so you read his stuff and help him make a living :giggle:

Yes it It depends on your point of view. Personally I’m far less interested in whether a  particular timeline was predicted correctly or not compared to the reasoning why someone is predicting an economic failure in the first place.

Though the world not end, I find it very difficult to believe  that the expected bull run you referred to  will come back because the one we have just witnessed since 2008 IMO was based on fantasy and lies i.e. credit growth from money created out of thin air rather than real growth and I can't see that the world will be able to  repeat that again any time soon. 

Edited by midas
Posted
On 8/21/2017 at 2:05 PM, midas said:

Yes it It depends on your point of view. Personally I’m far less interested in whether a  particular timeline was predicted correctly or not compared to the reasoning why someone is predicting an economic failure in the first place.

Though the world not end, I find it very difficult to believe  that the expected bull run you referred to  will come back because the one we have just witnessed since 2008 IMO was based on fantasy and lies i.e. credit growth from money created out of thin air rather than real growth and I can't see that the world will be able to  repeat that again any time soon. 

The reasoning why they predict them is to generate interest for their articles so that they can make money from you LOL. Once you learn the people that regularly do this it saves time to tune them out.

 

Globally growth is now picking up, eg look at Thailand. Globally interest rates are also slowly starting to be increased in important countries. So likely by the time the next crash happens they'll be able to reduce them again. Even if not the the US can still print money, as can other central banks The day the US will have a problem is when the USD role as the world's reserve currency is significantly reduced.

 

It's very common for investors to feel its the end of the world each time a crash happens, but one way or another things bounce back, then crash again...

Posted
On 18/08/2017 at 4:12 PM, Pib said:

Capture.JPG.002fe7064ced2bcaaa16fd590cd8d0ee.JPG

 

Isn't that quote supposed to read " The End is Nigh" ? 

 

Clif high  says its all Going to come crashing down in Flames and hyperinflation....

 

We will see :smile:

Posted
4 hours ago, fletchsmile said:

The reasoning why they predict them is to generate interest for their articles so that they can make money from you LOL. Once you learn the people that regularly do this it saves time to tune them out.

 

Globally growth is now picking up, eg look at Thailand. Globally interest rates are also slowly starting to be increased in important countries. So likely by the time the next crash happens they'll be able to reduce them again. Even if not the the US can still print money, as can other central banks The day the US will have a problem is when the USD role as the world's reserve currency is significantly reduced.

 

It's very common for investors to feel its the end of the world each time a crash happens, but one way or another things bounce back, then crash again...

Globally growth is now picking up ":blink:

 

I can't possibly see how you can realistically make that statement in view of what happened yesterday with Provident financial and today with WPP regarding its shockingly dismal earnings. I think reality is beginning to bite

Posted

Here is the real elephant in the room


 

Quote

 

The dynamic that's about to play out is simple: wages for the bottom 95% have gone nowhere for 17 years, while costs have soared far above official inflation for everyone exposed to real-world costs.

We have filled the widening gap between stagnant household income and rising expenses with debt. This stop-gap works for a while, but eventually the cost of servicing debt consumes the entire budget, leaving little to nothing to save or invest.

After eight long years of filling the widening gap with borrowed money, the jig is up: the returns on adding debt have diminished to zero, and the financialization games that were supposed to be temporary emergency measures are now permanent.

When credit expansion stops, the effect is like a meteor storm: marginal borrowers and lenders crater, and every sector that depends on marginal borrowers and lenders for sales and profits also craters.

 

 

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2017/08/next-stop-recession-financial-meteor.html

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
iceberg ahead !!!:shock1:
 
Tony Schwartz, the man who co-authored Art of the Deal with Donald Trump in 1987, now says that the President will likely resign before the end of the year.
 
 
I have been warning since long before the election that Trump’s presidency would be the perfect vehicle for central banks and international financiers to divert blame for the economic crisis that would inevitably explode once the Fed moved firmly into interest rate hikes. Every indication since my initial prediction shows that this is the case.
The media was building the foundation of the narrative from the moment Trump won the election. Bloomberg was quick to publish its rather hilariously skewed propaganda on the matter, asserting that Trump was lucky to inherit an economy in ascendance and recovery because of the fiscal ingenuity of Barack Obama. This is of course utter nonsense. Obama and the Fed have created a zombie economy rotting from the inside out, nothing more. But, as Bloomberg noted rightly, any downturn within the system will indeed be blamed on the Trump administration.
Fortune Magazine, adding to the narrative, outlined the view that the initial stock rally surrounding Trump’s election win was merely setting the stage for a surprise market crash.
I continue to go one further than the mainstream media and say that the Trump administration is a giant cement shoe designed (deliberately) to drag conservatives and conservative principles down into the abyss as we are blamed by association for the financial calamity that will occur on Trump’s watch.
If Smith is correct, and all signs seem to be pointing to such a scenario, Trump will blamed for what will likely be the most epic financial collapse in world history. Once those goals are accomplished, a push to remove him from office may become reality
 
 
 
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/art-of-the-deal-coauthor-says-trump-will-resign-by-end-of-the-year-presidency-is-effectively-over-the-circle-is-closing-at-blinding-speed_08182017


No, the world is safe in Trump's very large hands.
Posted

Oh god.. Jimmy Rickards. The guy as made a career out of claiming he's been involved in secret Pentagon "financial war games" and predicting doom. Just try confirming that.

 

Of course, his "prophecies" never have to come true. He just needs to make dire predictions, make hints at "insider knowledge", and sell books.

 

The gold bugs love him of course because he helps sell gold, where keeping up demand is all important. But nobody on Wall Street pays any attention to him. He's a self promoting author that plays the "I have secret inside knowledge" card to sell books, get high dollar speaking gigs and sell his newsletter. It's a good act. There are lots of others who play it. Simon "CIA" Black is another. 

 

 

 

Posted
Oh god.. Jimmy Rickards. The guy as made a career out of claiming he's been involved in secret Pentagon "financial war games" and predicting doom. Just try confirming that.
 
Of course, his "prophecies" never have to come true. He just needs to make dire predictions, make hints at "insider knowledge", and sell books.
 
The gold bugs love him of course because he helps sell gold, where keeping up demand is all important. But nobody on Wall Street pays any attention to him. He's a self promoting author that plays the "I have secret inside knowledge" card to sell books, get high dollar speaking gigs and sell his newsletter. It's a good act. There are lots of others who play it. Simon "CIA" Black is another. 
 
 
 


And unlike Peter Schiff, Rickards did not become a public figure until AFTER the 2007/2008 financial crisis. The only predictions of his that have come true have been ones that he did not share with until after the fact.
Posted

Former BIS Chief Economist Warns "More Dangers Now Than In 2007"

 

Quote

 

Having warned in the past that "the system is dangerously unacnhored," former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, William White, told Bloomberg TV overnight that the current situation "looks very similar to 2008," adding that OECD sees "more dangers" today than in 2007.

The chairman of Economic and Development Review Committee at OECD, warned that prices are very high - in particular for high yield assets, VIX is very low, house prices are rising strongly, equity markets rising, and all these are a source of concern.

Additionally, White noted:

India’s debt problems go back a long way, and there are significant governance issues, including at state-owned banks.

China’s debt situation isn’t a lot different to India’s, but the acceleration of loans and credit growth in China is very fast

It’s not just the debt level in China that is worrisome, but the speed that it’s accumulating; maybe some of these loans won’t be repaid or serviced.

We don’t have a liquidity problem that central banks can solve - if we have too much debt, we have a debt resolution or insolvency problem and only governments can address problems like that.

World needs more fiscal expansion, structural reforms, and also have to look closely at debt write-off some of it and maybe recapitalize financial institutions.

We have got the mix of income that goes to capital versus labor wrong in many countries, and we need to look at that.

Central bank tightening is inevitable, but have to be careful.

As White concluded previously,

"it is every man for himself. And we do not know what the long-term consequences of this will be,"

 

 

 

 

Posted
Former BIS Chief Economist Warns "More Dangers Now Than In 2007"

 

 

Having warned in the past that "the system is dangerously unacnhored," former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, William White, told Bloomberg TV overnight that the current situation "looks very similar to 2008," adding that OECD sees "more dangers" today than in 2007.

The chairman of Economic and Development Review Committee at OECD, warned that prices are very high - in particular for high yield assets, VIX is very low, house prices are rising strongly, equity markets rising, and all these are a source of concern.

Additionally, White noted:

India’s debt problems go back a long way, and there are significant governance issues, including at state-owned banks.

China’s debt situation isn’t a lot different to India’s, but the acceleration of loans and credit growth in China is very fast

It’s not just the debt level in China that is worrisome, but the speed that it’s accumulating; maybe some of these loans won’t be repaid or serviced.

We don’t have a liquidity problem that central banks can solve - if we have too much debt, we have a debt resolution or insolvency problem and only governments can address problems like that.

World needs more fiscal expansion, structural reforms, and also have to look closely at debt write-off some of it and maybe recapitalize financial institutions.

We have got the mix of income that goes to capital versus labor wrong in many countries, and we need to look at that.

Central bank tightening is inevitable, but have to be careful.

As White concluded previously,

"it is every man for himself. And we do not know what the long-term consequences of this will be,"

 

 

 

 

 

 

All true, but timing it well enough to capitalization on it is not straight forward. As the saying goes, markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. They've been pretty irrational for almost a decade already.

 

Posted
1 hour ago, suzannegoh said:

 

 

 

 

 

All true, but timing it well enough to capitalization on it is not straight forward. As the saying goes, markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. They've been pretty irrational for almost a decade already.

 

 

"and the band played on....".....until.

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