Stronger baht raises concerns among exporters

[snoop1130]

Stronger baht raises concerns among exporters 

 

 

Exporters are prepared to meet the central bank for help as baht appreciation continues with concern that it will have great impact on exports.

 

Since the beginning of the year, the Thai currency has become stronger against the US dollar by 50 satang.

 

Thai National Shippers Council chairperson Ghayapad Tantipipatpong said since the beginning of 2018, the baht has strengthened by about 0.50 baht against US dollar.

 

The depreciation has already impacted Thai exporters, who were prepared to meet the Bank of Thailand this week for appropriate measures to resolve it.

 

The acceptable level of the baht is around 33 to the dollar, but now it stays at 32.10 to the dollar, she said, adding that the rising baht could result in less competitiveness to its neighbours like Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia.

 

Full Story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/stronger-baht-raises-concerns-among-exporters/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2018-1-9

[Chang_paarp]

Might have an impact on the tourist industry too.

[webfact]

Thai baht to remain strong in first quarter

 

 

BANGKOK, 10th January 2018 (NNT) - The Thai baht is likely to remain strong for the duration of the first quarter as investors have grown confident of the country's economic performance as well as its roadmap to a general election. 

Minister of Commerce Sontirat Sontijirawong, said today the strong baht can be attributed to investor confidence in the Thai economy due to positive indicators such as a high budget surplus for the third consecutive year as well as the growing certainty that a general election will take place this year.

 

He said his ministry continues to monitor the baht as it strengthens in relation to a weaker US dollar, while businesses are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate foreign exchange risk.

 

However, Mr Sontirat said there is no need at this time to adjust the country's export policies while some sectors, such as the animal feed industry, have already adjusted their prices to accommodate a stronger baht.

 

-- nnt 2018-01-10

[ChrisY1]

Really sounds as though this guy is pumping up the junta......!

 

[RichardColeman]

 

 

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

as investors have grown confident of the country's economic performance as well as its roadmap to a general election

A lot of gullible and stupid business people out there.

 

[12DrinkMore]

Whilst the importers are laughing all the way to the bank.

 

Or karaoke bars.

 

[MyFriend You]

Wish they would make up their minds   -  Its only a matter of time before 'The Donald' sets his sights on Thailand and says, 'Enough is Enough'  

 

Would be nice to hit 40 baht for a $$ and stay there for awhile..........that would even the score a bit.

Edited January 10, 2018 by TunnelRat69

[Acharn]

12 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

 

 

 

A lot of gullible and stupid business people out there.

 

Maybe so, the the baht has appreciated by ten percent against the US Dollar since the beginning ot 2017. It's been a more or less monthly slide. Very worrisome. I don't think when you see a steady change like that it's because people are stupid. I think it really is because businesses around the world are confident that this junta is not going to implode in corruption as past ones have done.

[Acharn]

9 hours ago, TunnelRat69 said:

Wish they would make up their minds   -  Its only a matter of time before 'The Donald' sets his sights on Thailand and says, 'Enough is Enough'  

 

Would be nice to hit 40 baht for a $$ and stay there for awhile..........that would even the score a bit.

Don't know where they're getting their numbers from. When I withdrew some money through the ATM last week I got about THB 32.11 to the dollar, and my visa card always gives me very close to the TT exchange rate at Siam Commercial Bank's web site. It was THB 35.25 last year. Risen 10%. No way it's going to THB 40 to the dollar. I'd be happy if it went back down to 34.

[MyFriend You]

2 hours ago, Acharn said:

Don't know where they're getting their numbers from. When I withdrew some money through the ATM last week I got about THB 32.11 to the dollar, and my visa card always gives me very close to the TT exchange rate at Siam Commercial Bank's web site. It was THB 35.25 last year. Risen 10%. No way it's going to THB 40 to the dollar. I'd be happy if it went back down to 34.

Wishful thinking, or pipe dreams - 35/36 is a good place for the baht, if it would only stay there for a few months, but being greedy Thais, they won't let it, even if it hurts them in the long run - meanwhile the $$ is gaining on Vietnam Dong, almost 23,000 for a $$  -  when I first started investing in Vietnam it was 10,500 for 1$$.  Banks are giving 6% for 3 month deposits (4 years ago it was 14% per annum.)

[Senechal]

On 9 January 2018 at 7:03 PM, Chang_paarp said:

Might have an impact on the tourist industry too.

Tourism is less than 10% of Thailand GDP. The BoT really doesn't care all that much about Tourism numbers. And while they do care about exporters, their hands are probably tied at this point.

 

Contrary to the belief of exporters, the BoT is keeping quite a bit of downward pressure on the Baht via currency swaps.

 

There are rumblings of Thailand being labeled a "currency manipulator" by both the World Bank and the USA. Thailand's economy is on a tear and their foreign FX reserves (used to keep the baht low, not high) are hitting a critical high point. So while exporters might be moaning, the more likely scenario is that Thailand continues to let the baht appreciate in '18.

 

See this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/india-thailand-risk-fx-manipulator-watchlist-as-reserves-swell

 

Sorry exporters. You're going to have to live with a double whammy in 2018: A rising baht and a rising minimum wage. The pinch is coming.

 

Expect 2018 to be the year unemployment ticks up and Thailand's household debt bubble to start sounding the alarms. But if you're hoping for relief from a rising baht, it's unfortunately not on the horizon IMHO.

 

 

 

[lannarebirth]

34 minutes ago, Senechal said:

Tourism is less than 10% of Thailand GDP. The BoT really doesn't care all that much about Tourism numbers. And while they do care about exporters, their hands are probably tied at this point.

 

Contrary to the belief of exporters, the BoT is keeping quite a bit of downward pressure on the Baht via currency swaps.

 

There are rumblings of Thailand being labeled a "currency manipulator" by both the World Bank and the USA. Thailand's economy is on a tear and their foreign FX reserves (used to keep the baht low, not high) are hitting a critical high point. So while exporters might be moaning, the more likely scenario is that Thailand continues to let the baht appreciate in '18.

 

See this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/india-thailand-risk-fx-manipulator-watchlist-as-reserves-swell

 

Sorry exporters. You're going to have to live with a double whammy in 2018: A rising baht and a rising minimum wage. The pinch is coming.

 

Expect 2018 to be the year unemployment ticks up and Thailand's household debt bubble to start sounding the alarms. But if you're hoping for relief from a rising baht, it's unfortunately not on the horizon IMHO.

 

 

 

 

That's a pretty good analysis I'd say. Though with respect to tourism in Thailand the economy of the nation the tourists travel from has always mattered more than the relative value of the Baht at any given time. Also, with respect to unemployment, save for a financial crisis I don't think Thailand has much to worry about given their large foreign labor contingent which they can tighten if need be.

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, Senechal said:

Tourism is less than 10% of Thailand GDP. The BoT really doesn't care all that much about Tourism numbers. And while they do care about exporters, their hands are probably tied at this point.

 

Contrary to the belief of exporters, the BoT is keeping quite a bit of downward pressure on the Baht via currency swaps.

 

There are rumblings of Thailand being labeled a "currency manipulator" by both the World Bank and the USA. Thailand's economy is on a tear and their foreign FX reserves (used to keep the baht low, not high) are hitting a critical high point. So while exporters might be moaning, the more likely scenario is that Thailand continues to let the baht appreciate in '18.

 

See this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/india-thailand-risk-fx-manipulator-watchlist-as-reserves-swell

 

Sorry exporters. You're going to have to live with a double whammy in 2018: A rising baht and a rising minimum wage. The pinch is coming.

 

Expect 2018 to be the year unemployment ticks up and Thailand's household debt bubble to start sounding the alarms. But if you're hoping for relief from a rising baht, it's unfortunately not on the horizon IMHO.

 

 

 

Tourism in Thailand is very nearly 20% of GDP, not 10%, indirect tourism benefits are even higher.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand